Daybreak Weekend: US Jobs, UK Food and Culture, China Economy
Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
Deep Dive
What are the expectations for the December jobs report in the U.S., and how might it impact Fed policy?
The December jobs report is expected to show around 155,000 jobs added, significantly lower than the 227,000 jobs added in November. This slowdown reflects a cooling labor market, with the unemployment rate expected to rise to 4.36%, potentially rounding up to 4.4%. The Fed anticipates this trend, with unemployment projected to reach 4.5% by mid-2025. Despite this, the Fed is unlikely to panic, as inflation remains elevated at 2.7%, complicating decisions on whether to cut rates to support the labor market or maintain pressure on inflation.
What are the key trends in the U.S. airline industry for 2025, particularly for Delta Airlines?
Delta Airlines, along with other full-service carriers like United and American, has seen record revenues in 2024, driven by strong demand and higher fares. However, rising pilot wages have offset some profitability gains. For Q4 2024, Delta is expected to see a 100 basis point increase in EBITDA, aided by a 22% drop in fuel costs. Capacity is projected to grow by 4%, with yields declining by 1%, leading to a 3% revenue growth. The industry has surpassed pre-pandemic levels in both seat capacity and fares, with full-service carriers outperforming low-cost carriers like Spirit and JetBlue.
What are the major food and culture trends to watch in the UK in 2025?
The UK food scene in 2025 will see a rise in accessible wine bars offering compelling food, such as Cadet in Newington Green and Mountain in Soho. Gordon Ramsay is set to open five new food and drink concepts in London, including the highest bar in the city. Additionally, Japanese cuisine is expected to grow in popularity, with more sushi restaurants and fusion dishes like butter chicken pizza. The cultural scene will feature high-profile theater productions, including Jamie Lloyd's Shakespeare season and the National Theatre's new shows.
What are the economic challenges facing China in 2025, and how is the government responding?
China faces significant economic challenges in 2025, including deflation, a property market crash, and weak consumer spending. The government has shifted its focus to boosting consumption, with a moderately loose monetary policy and increased fiscal spending. However, the response has been modest, with only a 1% GDP increase in the fiscal budget. Policymakers are also addressing the property market's decline, which has led to a deflationary spiral affecting consumer goods and electronics. The return of Donald Trump and potential tariff wars add further uncertainty to China's economic outlook.
What is the outlook for China's electric vehicle (EV) industry in 2025?
China's EV industry is expected to grow by 25-30% in 2025, while traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles decline by the same margin. EV makers are operating at around 80% capacity utilization, compared to below 50% for ICE manufacturers. Industry consolidation is underway, with joint ventures shutting down factories and some EV brands exiting the market. The government is shifting its policy focus from production and investment to boosting consumption, which will drive future growth in the EV sector.
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