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cover of episode Instant Reaction: Amazon Gives Weak Forecast on Trade Concerns

Instant Reaction: Amazon Gives Weak Forecast on Trade Concerns

2025/5/1
logo of podcast Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
AI Deep Dive Transcript
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C
Caroline Hyde
P
Poonam Goyal
Topics
Carol Massar和Tim Stenovec：亚马逊公司公布的第二季度运营利润预期低于市场预期，这引发了人们对关税和贸易政策可能导致消费者支出减少的担忧。亚马逊预计第二季度运营利润为130亿至175亿美元，而分析师平均预期为178亿美元。 Caroline Hyde：亚马逊公司第二季度运营收入预期下降的原因可能是关税、竞争或基础设施支出。亚马逊可能为了保护处于弱势地位的消费者而牺牲部分利润率。关税、第三方卖家减少支出和广告收入下降都可能影响亚马逊的利润率。亚马逊的新闻稿中几乎没有提及关税，只提到了关税和贸易政策。亚马逊能否准确评估关税成本尚不清楚，亚马逊可能需要承担部分关税成本，并可能将部分成本转嫁给第三方卖家。亚马逊不太可能公开说明关税对其价格的影响。亚马逊可能正在考虑应对关税的策略，但尚未最终确定。其他零售商也面临着关税问题，但亚马逊的云业务使其情况有所不同。如果亚马逊提高价格，其他零售商也会提高价格，最终消费者将承担成本。亚马逊有足够的现金储备和投资者支持来应对利润率下降。亚马逊需要应对关税带来的挑战，但其强大的财务状况使其能够更好地应对。 Poonam Goyal：亚马逊第二季度运营利润率下降的主要原因是关税导致的成本增加。亚马逊在新闻稿中没有直接提及关税，这并不令人意外。亚马逊的关税影响既包括自营业务（1P），也包括第三方卖家业务（3P）。亚马逊第二季度业绩指引中，关税是导致业绩下降的主要因素。亚马逊平台上约70%的商品来自中国，无论自营还是第三方卖家。美国零售业的大部分商品都来自海外，关税对所有零售商都有影响。AWS业务仍有增长潜力，但其增长速度可能会波动。AWS的长期增长潜力依然巨大。所有零售商都面临着关税带来的挑战，除非关税情况有所缓解。关税可能导致商品缺货。亚马逊可能会出现商品缺货，但不会出现货架空空如也的情况。如果价格大幅上涨，消费者可能会减少购买量或转向更便宜的品牌。消费者可能会在品牌和商品之间做出权衡，以应对价格上涨。价格上涨可能会影响即将到来的旺季销售。投资者最关心的问题是如何应对关税冲击，特别是对第三方卖家的影响。

Deep Dive

Shownotes Transcript

Amazon.com gave a weaker-than-expected forecast for operating profit in the current quarter, pointing toward tariffs and trade policies that may cause consumers to pull back on spending. The world’s largest online retailer projected operating profit of $13 billion to $17.5 billion, compared with an average estimate of $17.8 billion. Sales will be $159 billion to $164 billion in the period ending in June, the company said Thursday in a statement. Analysts, on average, expected $161.4 billion.Amazon shares have fallen about 13% this year as Wall Street weighs the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on a retail operation that sources much of its goods from China. Investors are generally bullish on the company’s efforts to become a major force in artificial intelligence, but there are concerns that Amazon’s prodigious spending on data centers may not translate into meaningful sales growth any time soon.Amazon Web Services, the largest seller of rented computing power, reported first-quarter sales gained 17% to $29.3 billion, in line with analysts’ estimates. It was the unit’s slowest growth in a year.For instant reaction and analysis, hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec speak with:

  • Bloomberg Technology co-host Caroline Hyde
  • Bloomberg Intelligence senior US e-commerce and retail analyst Poonam Goyal

 

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