Israel-Iran Truce in Question; President Trump Calls for Rate Cuts
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Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. And I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. Karen, we begin with the latest from the Middle East. Two days after the U.S. dropped bunker buster bombs on Iran's key underground nuclear sites, President Trump said a ceasefire is in effect between Israel and Iran today.

The president announced it in a Truth Social post last night. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that he's agreed to it and that he's achieved his war aims. But this morning, there are questions whether this truce will hold. We get the very latest from Bloomberg Middle East anchor Jumana Bersetche.

They've also said that Israel will respond forcefully to a breach of truce. And if you remember, it's quite similar to the wording of the truce agreement that Israel had in place with Hezbollah at the time when they agreed the ceasefire. It was a ceasefire in principle, but again, Israel reserved the right to still strike back at certain Hezbollah targets should they deem to have contravened the ceasefire.

That's Bloomberg's Jamana Bersetia reporting. And this morning, Israel's military said it identified missiles fired from Iran. Defense Minister Israel Katz said he instructed his military to respond forcefully. Iran is denying that it has launched a new attack.

Nathan, the ceasefire announcement comes after Iran launched missiles at a U.S. air base in Qatar in retaliation for the bunker buster attack. Tehran launched 14 missiles at the base, the same number as the bunker busters dropped on its nuclear sites. All but one of the missiles were intercepted and no one was hurt. Bloomberg's Paul Wallace has more from Dubai. I think Iran had to do something to save face, if nothing else, with its domestic population. And I

I think the Americans well knew that. It just depended what Iran would do and how spectacular and how aggressive that retaliation would be. In the end, it seemed like it was very choreographed, very calibrated, and there's even been speculation that Qatar

knew that this was coming and was actually okay with it. Bloomberg's Paul Wallace reports President Trump spoke with Qatar's emir about the ceasefire and asked for his help persuading Iran to agree to it. It's still unclear whether the truce will hold or if it'll lead to new discussions about Iran's nuclear program.

And Karen, markets are fluctuating with every headline coming out of the Middle East. Futures are higher but off their best levels of the morning. That follows yesterday's 1% gain on Wall Street. And we're seeing oil prices continue to fall as well. Right now, NYMEX crude is down more than 3.5%, trading just above $66 a barrel. Brent is also down more than 3.5% at nearly $69. Bloomberg Energy reporter Stephen Stepzinski says oil traders see less risk in the market.

Oil prices are back below the June 12 level. You're seeing the market take a large sigh of relief. And that is largely because while we've been through potentially the worst flare-up in U.S.-Iranian conflict in decades, oil kept flowing and trade via the Strait of Hormuz was not affected. Bloomberg's Stephen Stabczynski notes the Middle East pumps about a third of the world's crude supply.

Nathan, Israel around ceasefire comes as leaders gather for a NATO summit in The Hague. Ahead of the two-day meeting, most of the NATO member states agreed on a proposed target to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte says the ramp-up in spending would be a quantum leap. As the world becomes more dangerous, allied leaders will take bold decisions to strengthen our collective defense.

making NATO a stronger, a fairer, and a more lethal alliance. And Brita's new target has not won approval of all of NATO, with Spain fighting for an opt-out that could derail talks taking place in The Hague today. And back in Washington, Karen, Fed Chair Jay Powell begins two days of testimony on the economy before Congress. Later this morning, he'll appear before the House Financial Services Committee.

In a post on social media this morning, President Trump said he hopes Congress, quote, really works, pal, over for not lowering rates already. We get more from Bloomberg's Michael McKee. The Fed chair has been squarely in the president's sights ever since Donald Trump returned to the White House. Trump wants him to lower interest rates now.

Today and tomorrow, Jay Powell gets his chance to turn the tables. While Powell will be more circumspect and polite than the president, he'll explain the central bank doesn't want to lower rates until it knows the impact of Trump's tariff taxes and the budget bill on the economy. Expect Republicans to defend the president and Democrats to defend the Fed.

and Chairman Powell to be as neutral as he can be. Michael McKee, Bloomberg Radio. All right, Mike, thanks, and stay with Bloomberg for full coverage of Chair Powell's testimony before the House. We'll have it for you starting at 10 a.m. Wall Street time on Bloomberg Radio and the Bloomberg Podcast page on YouTube.

We turn to politics now, Nathan, and on a sweltering day in New York, city Democrats will vote in today's mayoral primary election. Bloomberg's Lisa Mateo joins us in Manhattan with the latest. Lisa, good morning. Good morning, Karen, and hopefully that heat will not affect the turnout. Now, polls open at 6 a.m., and voters have a long list of candidates to choose from. Eleven are running for the official Democratic ticket.

But surveys showed the contest comes down to two men, former Governor Andrew Cuomo and New York State Assemblymember Zoan Ramondami. Now, last night, the former governor spoke at a rally for Cuomo for mayor. It's about the working families. It's about the struggling middle class.

It's about people worried about their kitchen table issues, trying to figure out how to pay for groceries and pay for their rent and pay for tuition and pay for taxes. That's what the Democratic Party is all about. Now, meanwhile, Mondami has been advocating for rent freezes and free child care. New Yorkers are hungry.

for a new kind of politics, a politics that puts working people first. And we're seeing that it's not just in one borough, it's not just with one kind of New Yorker, it's across this entire city. Polls have largely shown Cuomo winning, but a new Emerson College poll showed Mondami coming out on top in the city's ranked choice voting. Comptroller Brad Lander is polling third in some surveys.

and has formed an alliance with Mamdani. He had focused on his experience as a manager and his opposition to President Trump. City Council Speaker Adrian Adams also vying for the nomination, running on her experience in government. Other candidates, well, they include former Democratic National Committee Vice Chair Michael Blake, New York State Senator Zelnor Myrie, New York State Senator Jessica Ramos,

Former New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer and retired hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson. Michael Bloomberg, the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg Radio, has endorsed Andrew Cuomo. In Manhattan, Lise Matteo, Bloomberg Radio. All right, Lise, thank you. And this year's Democratic nominee will face incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, who was elected, of course, as a Democrat, but he skipped today's primary to run as an independent in November.

On the Republican side of today's ballot, Curtis Sliwa, founder of the anti-crime patrol group the Guardian Angels, is running unopposed. He will once again be the Republican nominee.

Well, Nathan, how does ranked choice voting work? Bloomberg's Gina Cervetti continues our coverage of the New York City mayoral race in Manhattan. Voters choose their favorite candidate but also can select a second favorite, a third, and so on up to five. If a candidate gets a majority of first place votes, that person wins. If not, the candidate with the fewest first place votes is eliminated.

Voting machines then examine the number two choices on every ballot cast for the eliminated person and distribute those votes among the remaining field. The process continues until a candidate garners a majority. For the New York mayoral primary, if no candidate wins more than 50% of the votes on the first ballot,

Election officials plan to wait a week before initiating the ranked choice tabulation process in order to include mailed-in absentee ballots. In New York, Gina Cervetti, Bloomberg Radio. All right, Gina, thank you. Turning back to Washington, the Supreme Court is allowing President Trump to resume his program of swiftly deporting migrants to countries other than their homelands. For now, Bloomberg's Amy Morris has more from the nation's capital.

The Supreme Court lifted a judge's order requiring the Trump administration to give people 10 days notice and a chance to object before deporting them to a third country. The order marks a shift for the high court. The justices previously pushed back against the administration's efforts to send some immigrants to harsh or potentially dangerous locations with minimal notice.

The decision drew a scathing dissent from Justice Sonia Sotomayor, who said the high court's action was a gross abuse of its authority. In Washington, Amy Morris, Bloomberg Radio. Amy, thank you. Another legal blow for President Trump and his battle with Harvard University. For the second time in a week, a federal judge in Boston has issued a court order letting the Ivy League keep hosting foreign students. The president had tried to bar the students, citing a law to safeguard national security.

Now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world. And for that, we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Michael, good morning. Good morning, Karen. Oppressive heat and humidity are slamming nearly half the country. And today is going to be another hot day for many. Bloomberg meteorologist Rob Carroll has the latest.

Michael, high pressure remains situated over the Carolinas, so the hot weather continues. We have extreme heat warnings stretching from the Carolinas through the district in Baltimore on through Philadelphia and New York and up into southern New England. Many of these cities are going to see afternoon high temperatures at or above 100 degrees with the heat index over 105, and that's why those extreme heat warnings are in effect. Further to the west, we're looking at lots of heat advisories. The high is going to continue to shift down into the Atlantic, so the hot weather in many locations continues into Wednesday, if not Thursday.

Michael? Thanks, Rob. A jury has now watched nearly 45 minutes of recordings of marathon sex events considered important evidence in the sex trafficking and racketeering trial of music mogul Sean Diddy Combs.

The prosecution says the jury viewed explicit footage of two of Combs' former girlfriends sexually involved with male sex workers while he filmed the encounters. Combs has pleaded not guilty to the charges. Prosecutors plan to rest today after a defense presentation. Closing arguments are scheduled for Thursday.

Attorney General Pam Bondi's hearing before the House Appropriations Committee quickly devolved into shouting matches with Democratic lawmakers. Democratic Representative Madeleine Dean of Pennsylvania pressed Bondi about reports that she advised and signed off on President Trump's acceptance of a luxury jet from Qatar.

Is it true that you gave advice that this was legally permissible? Yes or no? I will not discuss any advice that my Office of Legal Counsel gives to the President of the United States on any matter.

Meanwhile, Senate Republicans are considering a $40,000 cap on state and local tax deductions, but want to lower the income threshold. It's a bid to resolve a standoff with House Republicans. Senator Mark Wayne Mullen of Oklahoma, a key negotiator, said he plans to make the offer to House Republicans from New York, New Jersey and California. Other issues still need to be resolved, including Medicaid cuts to rural hospitals.

Global news 24 hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg, Aaron.

All right, Michael Barr, thank you.

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It is time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update, and here's John Stashower. John, good morning. Good morning, Karen. It was just 10 days ago. The Mets were flying high. They had won 15 of 18. They were 27-7 at home. They had the best record in baseball, a five-and-a-half game lead in the NLE. Since then, 10 games.

Nine losses. They've scored only 19 runs in those nine defeats. 0-4 versus Atlanta. The Braves won 3-2 at Citi Field. And now second place Mets. Got a two-run homer from Juan Soto. But nothing else for manager Carlos Mendoza. Once the bottom of the lineup, we're having a hard time creating opportunities. You know, like...

We're relying pretty much on the top four or five guys. And then if those guys in the bottom are not able to get on base, that's why we're having a hard time scoring runs right now. Mendoza tonight will start Frankie Montas. It'll be his Mets debut. Yankees in Cincinnati had a first inning home run from Aaron Judge. His 28th, nothing after that. Yanks lost to the Reds 6-1. Red Sox lost to the Angels 9-5. Nationals won 10-6 in San Diego.

in Seattle's win at Minnesota. Home run number 32 for the Mariners. Switch hitting catcher Cal Raleigh. He's hit five in his last four games. The NBA draft begins tomorrow. The Celtics in a move to save money traded Drew Holiday to Portland for Anthony Simons and two second round picks. This saves the Celtics 40 million in the luxury tax.

Tyrese Halliburton had surgery on the torn Achilles. He suffered in Game 7 of the Finals. He had a calf injury going in. Said he has no regrets trying to play. The Pacers and Celtics are going to play most, if not all, of next season without their star players. Both Halliburton and Jason Tatum tore their Achilles in the playoffs. That should help the Knicks in the East. Knicks still without a coach. Latest name linked to the Knicks job, James Borrego, former coach in Charlotte. John Stachow, we're at Bloomberg Sports.

Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio. Nationwide on Sirius XM. And around the world on Bloomberg.com and the Bloomberg Business App. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. A ceasefire announcement between Israel and Iran may already be in doubt. Hours after President Donald Trump posted about it on social media, Israel is accusing Iran of breaching the truce. Joining us from Tel Aviv,

Bloomberg News Israel Bureau Chief Ethan Bronner. Ethan, good morning. We've seen a flurry of headlines since the president posted that ceasefire announcement last night on Truth Social. What's the latest you can tell us? Well, as you said, Nathan, so right after the president issued this announcement, there was, I think there were six volleys of missiles at Israel repeatedly. One after the other. It was about 40 minutes or so. We were running in and out of

But then the Israelis announced that they had accepted it as well, and it seemed it was happening. And then just a little while ago, two more missiles went to the north. The Iranians apparently say they didn't send them, but the Israelis are quite clear who did send them, and they've already seen a fragment of it landed in northern Israel. So there clearly was some kind of a violation.

And the Israelis have threatened, said they're going to carry out a very severe attack in Tehran in retaliation. So you're right that it's a pretty fragile. My instinct is that it will evolve in the next hours, that we will see some kind of a truce because everyone seems to want it. But you never know.

What do we know about the terms of the truce that were announced by President Trump last night? How is it going to work?

We don't really know. I'm assuming that there will be a kind of formal, you know, quiet for quiet announcement between Israel and Iran. And then there'll be a sort of unspoken agreement between the United States and Israel, as there is with regard to Lebanon and Hezbollah, in which Israel says, if we see clear violations, we are going to take unilateral action. And the Americans are going to say, no.

fine by us. Now, Iran is a lot further away than Lebanon and a lot harder to suddenly take action, but that's my instinct about where we're headed. Okay. Now, ahead of this apparent break of the ceasefire, Israel had said that it achieved its war aims in agreeing to this. Does that mean from the Israeli perspective that it no longer sees Iran as a nuclear threat?

I think it more or less means that, or at least that its nuclear program is set back sufficiently to years or something, that it's going to be very hard. If you have all of these broken centrifuges and all of these enrichment sites that are impossible to get into or to send power to for a while, I think there's the sense that we need to still see all of that with greater clarity that, yes, as a nuclear program,

threshold state, Iran has been pushed aside for now. And the Israelis also say that they took care of 75 or 80 percent of the launchers of ballistic missiles. And so that's less of a threat as well. Obviously, it is a total victory, but enough for them to declare it as such.

And of course, it came after Iran lobbed the same number of missiles as the amount of bunker buster bombs that the U.S. dropped on its nuclear sites over the weekend. What can we expect when it comes to further U.S. involvement here?

Well, I mean, the numbers may have been the same, but it was a little bit like a kabuki theater. I mean, they dropped 14 missile, some kind of projectiles on an American base, but they told the Americans and the Qataris where the base is in advance. They were all stopped.

President Trump was kind of narrating it on his Truth Social as it was happening. So it was kind of an act of theater. I don't think the Americans are planning any kind of retaliation, and everyone's hoping that that would be it from that perspective. So does that mean that we could see a resumption of discussions around Iran's nuclear program? As you mentioned, there are still a lot of questions about the status of the program following all these attacks.

Yes, I assume there will be an attempt to get these talks going again. But I think that the American and Australian perspective is that what has been destroyed is so significant that there isn't an urgency to the talks the way there once was.

So to that extent, where does this last 12 days since the Israeli attack on Iran that began all this, where does this leave the Iranian regime, Ethan? I mean, we've seen President Trump muse kind of openly about the possibility of regime change by the Iranian people. Could it go there?

Look, I think nobody really, you know, predicting revolutions and coups is a fool's errand. But obviously this government in Iran, this regime is as weak as it has ever been, as threatened as it has ever been. It has held on. You know, it's got all the levers of power still in its hands. So I don't know.

what's going to happen to it. But there's no question that its friends, Russia, China, did not come to its aid militarily. Its proxies in Lebanon and in Syria and Iraq have been almost entirely not eliminated, but certainly diminished. And so it is a shadow of its former self as a regional power today. And that is what Israel wanted.

Thank you for this, Ethan. Great to have you with us this morning. That is Ethan Bronner joining us from Tel Aviv, Israel Bureau Chief for Bloomberg News. Karen. Nathan, let's repeat some of our top stories this morning. President Trump says he hopes Congress really works Fed Chair Jay Powell as he gets ready for two days of testimony today. The president says interest rates should be two to three points lower.

A legal blow for President Trump in his battle with Harvard. For the second time in a week, a federal judge in Boston has issued a court order letting the Ivy League keep hosting foreign students. And it's primary day in New York City. Voters will contend with extreme humility.

heat and a ranked choice ballot in the Democratic race for mayor. We have more on those stories coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak. Nathan. All right, Katie, thank you for that. It is 522 on Wall Street. Want to turn now to another one of our top stories. What's happening in the Hague later today? Leaders from the NATO Alliance.

for their annual two-day summit, looking to lock in big defense spending increases as President Trump prepares to make his way to the event. Joining us from The Hague this morning is Bloomberg's Oliver Crook. Great to speak with you this morning, Oliver, after we heard from the Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte, talking about a

5% of GDP defense spending goal. That would be a huge increase from current levels. Does that look like it's going to hold? Good morning. Uh,

Nathan, yeah, it does look like it's going to hold at this stage. I mean, there's a little bit of infighting which we can get into, but you know, I think that what we've learned about the Trump administration and Donald Trump itself is he likes one big beautiful number, and that big beautiful number that NATO wants to present to him in order to guarantee continued U.S. support of the alliance is 5%. 5% of GDP spent on an annual basis of every single country within the NATO alliance.

As you say, Nathan, the previous requirements were 2%. Most countries were not hitting that for a very long time. You take the average of the last decade in removing the United States, it's closer to 1.6%. And now you're in a position where you have these nations lining up to basically guarantee to spend about 5% of their GDP

on defense. Now, we should say this is not, strictly speaking, a real 5%. Only 3.5% of that is going to be on the sort of hard military hardware, the kind of traditional military spending we think about, guns, ammunition, tanks, aircrafts, and those sorts of things.

1.5 of that is going to be sort of defense adjacent. So let's say there is theoretically a war on the eastern flank of NATO. You need roads and railways that can carry tanks around. You need cybersecurity defense. So those sorts of things could also be included. But we should say, Nathan, that this, despite the fact that it's maybe not a clear and pure 5%, this is a massive uptick in terms of European defense spending. And this is something that, frankly, six months ago was completely inconceivable, and it's becoming a reality over the next couple of days.

We had heard in the lead up to this, Oliver, that Spain was holding out on committing to that 5% target. How serious is Spain's sort of reluctance to go forward with this?

Yeah, they've been really sort of a holdout. And this has been a big topic of conversation over the last couple of days. I've spoken to a number of defense and foreign ministers over the last couple of days. They, from different European nations, they seem to think that Spain is going to get on board. Basically how it works is NATO assigns a certain amount of hardware and things that each of its members need to basically participate in. The point is that Spain says that they can basically meet those requirements,

without spending the 3.5 percent but can do it with 2.1 percent. But we even heard from Mark Rutte yesterday saying that he really doesn't think that that's possible. And there can't really be two speeds and two different requirements for different members of NATO. And the second that sort of Spain is unwilling to do it, then you heard -- started hearing sounds from Slovakia. So, really, what they need to do is to present a united front. It's hard to imagine that they sort of blow up this whole arrangement just because Spain doesn't get on board. So I have to watch what we get over the next 24 hours.

And as we wait for President Trump to make his way over there following the announcement of the ceasefire, with the shakiness surrounding that now, where does this position President Trump as he heads to NATO?

Yeah, so it's a really interesting question. It's something that I've been sort of wondering about. You know, if he's got basically a big win under his belt, saying that he's, A, you know, destroyed all of Iran's nuclear facilities or to a very large extent, B, has managed to sort of negotiate a ceasefire, he comes to this sort of NATO meeting potentially in high spirits.

but also in a position to basically make a lot of demands and to feel very sort of good about pushing around the rest of the world because as we know the Europeans have basically had zero influence on the situation in the Middle East whether it's Gaza, whether it's Iran, all of these sorts of things and he comes here to NATO and really does feel a little bit like the sort of you know the king of NATO. This is all down to the fact that basically the Trump administration, Donald Trump, has threatened basically not to come to the aid

of certain NATO members if they do not reach their targets and that is what has got everybody in line but likely if he still comes to the summit and that is our base case assumption that he will be coming he'll be coming a in high spirits and be in a very sort of powerful position even more powerful potentially than previously this is Bloomberg Daybreak your morning podcast on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond look for us on your podcast feed by 6 a.m eastern each morning on Apple Spotify or anywhere else you listen

You can also listen live each morning starting at 5 a.m. Wall Street time on Bloomberg 1130 in New York, Bloomberg 99.1 in Washington, Bloomberg 92.9 in Boston, and nationwide on Sirius XM Channel 121. Plus, listen coast-to-coast on the Bloomberg Business app now with Apple CarPlay and Android Auto interfaces.

And don't forget to subscribe to Bloomberg News Now. It's the latest news whenever you want it, in five minutes or less. Search Bloomberg News Now on your favorite podcast platform to stay informed all day long. I'm Karen Moscow. And I'm Nathan Hager. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak.

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