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cover of episode New Years Special: Tech Trends with Ives and Munster

New Years Special: Tech Trends with Ives and Munster

2025/1/1
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Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition

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Dan Ives
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Gene Munster
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Gene Munster: 人工智能正处于一个为期三到五年的牛市早期阶段,未来几年市场表现将非常出色。物质最终将超越炒作。虽然看起来与现实脱节,但这正是这场变革意义重大的体现。AI 仍处于早期阶段,未来还有两年的好时光。 尽管AI讨论热烈,但其普及率仍然较低,大部分用户尚未参与其中。软件公司需要在2025年展现增长率的提升,即使增幅不大,也能向投资者传递积极信号。投资者需要看到的是软件公司增长数字的提升,而非突破性的增长。 预计2025年纳斯达克指数将出现几次10%或以上的回调,但这对市场长期上涨是健康的。预计2025年大型科技公司将进行更多收购,监管环境将有所放松。当前的纳斯达克指数市盈率远低于1995年至2000年期间的峰值,这意味着未来仍有上涨空间。虽然当前的市盈率不会达到1995年至2000年期间的峰值,但随着范式转变和市场情绪高涨,市盈率仍有提升空间。 AI 的资本支出规模巨大,这表明AI的实际应用将超过预期,其影响力将超过互联网。各国政府对AI的投资将逐步增加,这将成为AI发展的重要推动力。各国政府对AI的投资将受到美国和中国竞争的影响,这将成为各国政府投资AI的催化剂。 英伟达股价未来仍有上涨空间,但其增长速度可能放缓。英伟达的业务规模在AI推动下大幅增长,但这种增长速度能否持续存在不确定性。AI 应用带来的效益可能并非立竿见影,而是体现在提高利润率等方面。 苹果公司iPhone的销售增长将超过市场预期,这将推动苹果公司股价上涨。苹果公司iPhone的销售增长将强劲,这将推动苹果公司股价上涨。特斯拉是AI领域最令人兴奋的公司之一,其未来发展潜力巨大。 谷歌公司在AI领域仍有发展空间,其新一代AI模型将推动谷歌公司股价上涨。谷歌公司在AI领域取得了进展,其新一代AI模型将对公司未来发展产生积极影响。 Dan Ives: AI 处于一个为期两年的牛市周期中,虽然会有问题出现,但总体趋势向好。AI 投资热潮才刚刚开始,未来几年仍将持续,总投资额将达两万亿美元。每一美元用于英伟达芯片的支出,都会在科技领域产生8到10美元的乘数效应,这正是AI牛市持续到2025年甚至2026年的原因。 AI 的应用案例正在企业领域展开,软件公司如 Palantir、Salesforce 和 ServiceNow 等将从中受益。FTC 对科技公司的反垄断审查结束,将有利于科技公司进行并购,推动AI革命发展。 2025年市场将面临一些风险,例如美联储政策、债券市场波动以及与中国的贸易摩擦等,但这些风险不会阻碍AI行业的长期发展。投资者应该关注AI领域的赢家,而不是被估值所困扰。 AI 的范式转变正在企业领域发生,企业级应用是AI投资的主要方向。AI 的企业级应用将推动第四次工业革命,带来多年度的投资机会。 2025年AI领域的赢家将是软件公司,例如 Palantir、Oracle 和 Salesforce 等。2025年AI领域的输家将是硬件公司,因为AI发展趋势正转向软件驱动。 AI 在软件领域的应用将集中在现有客户群上,并扩展到市场营销、分析和 ERP 等领域。英伟达芯片需求量巨大,是AI领域不可或缺的供应商。英伟达有潜力成为市值达4万亿美元的公司。 苹果公司将受益于AI革命,其市值有望达到4.5万亿美元。苹果公司的新一代iPhone将搭载AI功能,这将推动苹果公司业绩增长。 特斯拉公司将受益于AI技术的发展,其股价有望达到650美元。特斯拉的自动驾驶技术是其未来发展的关键,这将推动特斯拉股价上涨。 Palantir 公司是AI软件领域的佼佼者,未来发展潜力巨大。Palantir 公司有潜力成为下一个甲骨文公司。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Where are we in the AI cycle according to Gene Munster?

Gene Munster believes we are in the fourth inning of the AI cycle, still early in a three to five-year bull market. He expects another two good years of growth, with the substance of AI exceeding the hype.

What is the significance of OpenAI's daily active users compared to Google's search users?

OpenAI has around 150 million daily active users for GPT Global, while Google has 2.5 billion daily active search users. This highlights that AI adoption is still in its early stages despite the hype.

What is the multiplier effect of NVIDIA's chips on the tech industry?

For every dollar spent on an NVIDIA chip, there is an $8 to $10 multiplier across the rest of the tech industry, indicating the broad economic impact of AI hardware investments.

What are the key areas where AI is expected to drive productivity improvements?

AI is expected to drive productivity improvements primarily in the enterprise sector, with use cases in marketing, analytics, ERP, and cybersecurity. The consumer sector is expected to see significant impact in the second half of 2025 and 2026.

What is the potential impact of regulatory changes on AI development in 2025?

Gene Munster expects regulatory restrictions on big tech acquisitions to loosen in 2025, leading to more significant deals and innovation. This could accelerate AI development and market growth.

How does Dan Ives view the role of software in the AI boom?

Dan Ives sees software as a major beneficiary of the AI boom, with companies like Palantir, Oracle, and Salesforce leading the way. He believes software use cases will drive the next phase of AI growth.

What is the outlook for NVIDIA's stock in 2025?

Gene Munster and Dan Ives are bullish on NVIDIA, expecting the stock to rise due to increasing demand for AI chips and expansion into new markets like sovereign and industrial AI. They predict NVIDIA could reach a $4 trillion market cap.

How does Apple fit into the AI revolution?

Apple is expected to drive the consumer AI revolution through the iPhone 16 and Apple Intelligence. Analysts predict significant growth in iPhone sales, with Apple potentially reaching a $4.5 trillion market cap.

What is Tesla's role in the AI landscape?

Tesla is considered one of the most exciting AI plays due to its advancements in autonomy and vehicle production. Dan Ives and Gene Munster believe Tesla's AI-driven future could make it a trillion-dollar company.

What are some key stocks to watch in 2025 according to Dan Ives and Gene Munster?

Dan Ives highlights Palantir as a top pick, while Gene Munster recommends Google, noting its progress in AI despite competition from GPT. Both see these companies as significant players in the AI-driven market.

Shownotes Transcript

Bloomberg’s Nathan Hager looks at the biggest tech stories from 2024 and what we can expect for 2025. He speaks with Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management and Dan Ives from Wedbush. 

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