Trump Avoids Recession Call, Says Economy In ‘Transition', Mark Carney Wins in Canada
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Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. And I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. Karen, the drop in futures follows last week's 3% decline for the S&P 500 as investors become increasingly concerned about the economy. The dollar's coming off its worst week since 2022.

President Trump says the economy faces a period of transition. He is deflecting concerns about the risks of a slowdown as his early focus on tariffs and federal job cuts causes market turmoil. The president was asked about recession possibility on Fox News. I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we're doing is very big. We're bringing wealth back to America. That's a big thing. And there are always periods of...

It takes a little time. It takes a little time. President Trump's latest comments come after Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged increasing uncertainty on Friday, though he also said the economy remains in a good place. Well, Nathan, President Trump also says he's mostly lifted a freeze on intelligence sharing with Ukraine. The president spoke to reporters on board Air Force One last night. If we can't get you to be serious about getting something done,

And the president stopped providing some intelligence to Ukraine after an Oval Office meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky turned into open arguing. A barrage of Russian missile attacks in recent days has led to questions about that decision. U.S. and Ukrainian officials are meeting in Saudi Arabia tomorrow to discuss reviving a critical minerals deal between the two countries. Karen, President Trump also says there could be a deal soon on TikTok. Let's get the details on that from Bloomberg's John Tucker. John.

And good morning, Nathan. In response to a question on board Air Force One, the president said there is interest in TikTok's U.S. business. There could be. We're dealing with four different groups and a lot of people want it and it's up to me. So there could be.

He didn't specify the four contenders for the business or indicated which way he was leaning, instead saying all four are good. The public bidders to date include a group led by billionaire Frank McCourt. TikTok, which is owned by China's ByteDance, faces a deadline of April 5th to strike a deal for its U.S. operations worldwide.

or be banned from the country under a law passed during the Biden administration. TikTok U.S. was estimated to be worth as much as $50 billion. ByteDance has not indicated any interest in selling off its U.S. operations. In New York, I'm John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio.

All right, John, thank you. Well, looking north, Mark Carney has won the race to become Canada's next prime minister. The former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor will take over from Justin Trudeau after winning the contest to lead the country's Liberal Party with nearly 86 percent of the vote. The victory comes as Trump's decision to impose U.S. tariffs on Canada has been met with patriotic fury and widespread boycotts of American goods.

In his acceptance speech, Carnage said he would protect the country's economy and sovereignty. The Canadian government has rightly retaliated and is rightly retaliating with our own tariffs that will have maximum impact in the United States and minimum impact here in Canada. My government will keep our tariffs on until the Americans show us respect.

The transfer of power to Carney from Justin Trudeau is expected to take place within days, and it's possible he will call a national election soon after. Back here in U.S. politics, Karen, House Republicans have introduced a spending bill that would keep the government running through September 30th and avoid a shutdown at the end of this week. President Trump is warning the GOP to allow no dissent so the bill can pass without Democratic votes.

But Pennsylvania Republican Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick says he's not sure if he's a yes on this continuing resolution or CR. We want two-party solutions, including on the CR, so it remains to be seen whether the votes are there or not. Republican Brian Fitzpatrick chairs the House Problem Solvers Caucus with New York Democrat Tom Suozzi. He says the bill would need 60 votes to pass in the Senate. Wouldn't it be better if we all just worked together to try and find common ground? The idea of a full-year continuing resolution is not the normal process.

Congressman Swazi and Fitzpatrick both appeared on CBS's Face the Nation Heard Sundays on Bloomberg Radio. I've also just heard from Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He says 83% of programs at the U.S. Agency for International Development are being officially canceled. In a post on X this morning, Rubio says the remaining 18% of USAID will be managed by the State Department.

Well, Nathan, we're looking at markets now and Wall Street. Here's from a couple of big tech names this week. We get a preview with Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett. Oracle and Adobe are on deck with a focus on any AI comments. As for the broader earnings backdrop, Emily Rowland is co-chief investment strategist at JH Investments. We're really not finding a meaningful shift in terms of the earnings narrative.

Analysts are penciling in about 12% earnings growth in the United States this year. It's a little bit off 15% that was penciled in a couple of months ago, but still pretty darn good. Also this week, retailers including Dollar General, Williams-Sonoma, and Dick's Sporting Goods.

In New York, Charlie Pellett, Bloomberg Radio.

The strategist says the S&P 500 will hit a low of about 5,500 points in the first half of this year before recovering to 6,500 by the end of the year. That target implies a rally of 13% from current levels. And we're going to speak with Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson tomorrow morning right here on Bloomberg Daybreak.

Well, in company news here, Nathan, Tesla shares continue to go in reverse. They're down about 3% this morning. Elon Musk's automaker has been backsliding in China for the past five consecutive months, including a 49% drop in February compared to last year. It has been losing market share to companies, including China's BYD. Tesla shares have dropped 45% since mid-December.

Time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world. And for that, we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Michael, good morning. Good morning, Karen. Israel has cut off the electricity supply to Gaza. The move has affected a desalinization plant producing drinking water for part of the arid territory. Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East, Mick Mulroy.

They have no capacity to make the food that they need for over 2 million people. And now with cutting off electricity, there's not likely a way to make clean water. So the very essence of what people need, water, clean water. Hamas instead wants to start negotiations on the ceasefire's more difficult second phase.

firefighters are battling wildfires in eastern Long Island. New York Governor Kathy Hochul declared a state of emergency. The wildfires have scorched more than 600 acres near densely populated areas in the Hamptons. Three of the fires are now out. A fourth is being knocked down after more than 80 fire departments...

And 10 EMS units were deployed. Dry and breezy conditions fueled the fires. Suffolk County Executive Ed Romain says the White House is offering their support. We forget that in times of crisis, times of danger, Americans can come together and can address problems. So my thank you particularly to the volunteers that all showed up. There is an investigation into the fires as possible arson.

South Korea's military says North Korea has fired several ballistic missiles into the sea. Today's launch happened hours after South Korean and U.S. troops kicked off their large annual combined drills.

It's been 60 years since Bloody Sunday, when police in Alabama beat protesters during the historic Selma to Montgomery March for Civil Rights. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries visited Selma for commemorative events over the weekend. We appreciate the service and the sacrifice and the work of John Lewis, having served with him. One who would always tell us during good times and troubled times, never give up.

Never give in. House Democrats reintroduced the John R. Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act, named after the late Georgia congressman beaten during the march. Global News 24 hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg. Karen. All right, Michael Barr, thank you.

When you have bars in the sky, onboard showers and award-winning in-flight entertainment, it's no surprise that Emirates was recently named the best airline in the world. We fly you to over 140 destinations and with partners across the globe, we connect you to another 1,700 cities across six continents. So when we say we're also the largest international airline, what we really mean is...

If you're going there, so are we. Book now on Emirates.com. Fly Emirates. Fly better. This is an ad by BetterHelp. Think about your mentors and idols, the people who inspire you most. While it may look like they have all the answers, they don't. But they do know when to ask questions and seek the support they need.

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time now for the bloomberg sports update brought to you by tri-state audi here's john stashour john good morning good morning karen had a good weekend for the rangers in their hopes of making the playoffs they played ottawa and columbus two teams they're fighting with they lost them both blew a two goal third three lead saturday and then at the garden three times gave up two goals in a span of less than two minutes the blue jackets won seven to three jonathan quick gave up all seven the rangers coach

to Peter Lottie-Leck. It bounces in a different direction or we have somebody fall and the coverage breaks down. It goes to odd man numbers down in our zone. So it was different reasons. Every goal was a different scenario. But at the end of the day, it's not good enough. We gave up chances that were big and right in front of our net.

And that can't happen. If the season ended now, the Rangers would not make the playoffs. Devils won 3-1 at Philadelphia. Cody Glass, just acquired from Pittsburgh, scored in his debut. The Islanders lost at Anaheim 4-1. The Knicks without Jalen Brunson after two losses in L.A. played tonight in Sacramento. The Kings lost last night when the Clippers' Kawhi Leonard scored at the buzzer of overtime. Four teams...

Punched their tickets to the NCAA tournament. Drake, three-peats to the Missouri Valley. High point, won the Big South. Omaha, the Summit. Lipscomb, the A-Som. Big East tournament begins Wednesday at the Garden. Devontae Adams, released by the Jets, found a new home with the L.A. Rams. Another wide out, D.K. Metcalf, who wanted a trade out of Seattle, got his wish. He's headed to Pittsburgh. A contract extension for Josh Allen and Buffalo when it kicks in.

The NFL MVP will make $55 million a year. Miles Garrett wanted a trade out of Cleveland, but he's staying with the Browns with an extension that goes through 2030. The Mets will start the season without starting catcher Carlos Alvarez. He's got a broken bone near his left wrist. They say he'll miss six to eight weeks. Golf at Bay Hill. Russell Henley trailed Colin Morikawa by three with five holes to play. Henley won by a shot thanks to a chip-in for Eagle on the 16th hole. John Staschauer, Bloomberg Sports, Cameron Nathan.

Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio. Nationwide on Sirius XM. And around the world on Bloomberg.com and the Bloomberg Business App. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. A period of transition. It is a phrase we are hearing more from President Trump and his cabinet as on-again, off-again tariffs and government job cuts rattle markets. But the president says he is hesitant to predict whether his policies will lead to a recession. Good morning.

Of course you hesitate. Who knows? All I know is this. We're going to take in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs.

and we're going to become so rich, you're not going to know where to spend all that money. President Trump spoke aboard Air Force One last night, and this morning we are joined by Bloomberg News senior editor Bill Ferrys. So, Bill, it has been kind of on again, off again when it comes to tariffs, but when you hear the president talk about the revenues that he says that these duties could bring in, makes it sound as though he's full steam ahead when it comes to tariffs more generally, the philosophy behind them. Good morning.

Hey, good morning, Nathan. Thanks for having me. That's right. I mean, we've seen a delay last week, you know, with some of these Mexico and Canada tariffs into April. But there are steel and aluminum tariffs coming in or due to come in this week on Wednesday. It seems to still be the biggest tool in President Trump's toolbox. And I think he's also trying to signal after we've seen the markets really reacting against steel.

the uncertainty and the tariffs that I think he's trying to signal. He's not super concerned about the stock market and its performance. He says, you know, this is a transition. We heard Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick saying or Scott Benson, I'm sorry, Treasury Secretary, saying that the U.S. economy needs to detox.

from its dependence on government spending. So they seem to be sticking with their plan, although in Trump's first term, he did care a lot about what the market did, and maybe that pain point hasn't been hit yet.

When you hear the phrase a period of transition, what is that signal when it comes to what the president could be thinking about whether tariffs stay on more permanently? When you think about this idea that there's going to be an external revenue service as opposed to an internal revenue service, are we transitioning from a more income tax based situation?

form of revenue bringing in, or is it going to be all about tariffs now? Well, I think President Trump does see that as part of the transition. And I think he's also seen some of the turbulence we're experiencing now and possibly even a little uptick in inflation as part of that transition that will ultimately shift the U.S. to a better place.

But if you remember in his first term, he did take that revenue, some of that revenue that was coming in from the tariffs he put in at the time, and he directed that to farmers who were getting hit with retaliatory tariffs by China. And so it wasn't necessarily that the economy was shifting into a different form of private sector revenue generation, but he was taking the tariff money and sending it to another group of Americans.

This time, of course, economists are talking about very broad impacts from tariffs if they go into effect. I don't know if he could do the same thing. How can we see the approach to tariffs shift, if at all, now that we have a new prime minister coming in in Canada in the form of former Bank of England, former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney? Could a central banker bring a different approach from President Trump?

Well, you know, Mark Carney, he came in last night with his speech and he said that he's going to, that Canada's going to sustain the tariffs they've already put. It's about $20 billion, so not of a massive amount. But he said he's going to keep those in place until the U.S. starts treating it

with respect and until the U.S. basically dials back those tariffs. But in terms of leadership in Canada, you've got a new prime minister who was at the Bank of England during Brexit, and he was at the Bank of Canada during the global financial crisis. So in terms of the resume, it's someone who is really accustomed to dealing with

economic, financial crises, and that could help Canada navigate this situation with the Trump administration. In our last minute, Bill, we also heard the president say he's mostly lifted the freeze on intelligence sharing with Ukraine. What can we expect now that we're going to have meetings between U.S. and Ukrainian officials on ways to end the war with Russia?

Well, I think a lot of people have questions about what does that mean that he's mostly lifted the freeze on intelligence sharing. But Donald Trump has signaled that he does think President Zelensky is showing a better attitude and is more willing to sign sanctions.

some sort of deal on critical minerals and natural resources. We still don't have a lot of details about what that agreement would be, but I think we're going to find out when President Zelensky is expected to be in Saudi Arabia meeting with U.S. officials on Tuesday.

This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. Look for us on your podcast feed by 6 a.m. Eastern each morning on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. You can also listen live each morning starting at 5 a.m. Wall Street time on Bloomberg 1130 in New York, Bloomberg 99.1 in Washington, Bloomberg 92.9 in Boston, and nationwide on Sirius XM Channel 121.

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