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cover of episode Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 17, 2025

Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 17, 2025

2025/6/17
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Bloomberg Surveillance
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K
Kelly Ann Shaw
K
Krishna Guha
P
Pooja Sriram
R
Reza Pahlavi
积极倡导伊朗政权更替和民主的活动家和伊朗王位觊觎者。
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Krishna Guha: 我认为美联储将继续采取观望态度，密切关注经济数据和政策变化的影响。真正的行动在于特朗普的经济议程，尤其是贸易政策，美联储在很大程度上是对这些冲击做出反应。美联储在不同经济环境下采取的反应函数至关重要，尤其是在劳动力市场疲软的情况下。在中间地带，美联储正在思考劳动力市场需要疲软到什么程度才会倾向于降息。五月份的就业报告和通胀数据都比预期要好，但关税不仅影响最终产品，还影响中间产品，这可能会对通胀产生更持久的影响。美联储有理由怀疑通胀预期、工资谈判和价格设定行为是否还像之前那样稳定。美联储的政策立场略微偏鹰派，认为当前政策具有适度的限制性，旨在锁定通胀预期。美联储的首要任务是锁定通胀预期，然后才能灵活地应对劳动力市场疲软。我预计本月和七月不会有任何动作，九月将是美联储决定是否降息的关键时点。美联储不试图微观管理两年期国债收益率，即使想这样做也做不到。美联储乐于让市场作为自动稳定器运作，目前市场定价与美联储的概率加权预期并不冲突。美联储上次对“暂时性”通胀的判断失误影响了他们这次的思考。

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  • Reza Pahlavi, Son of the Shah of Iran- Krishna Guha, Vice Chairman at Evercore ISI- Kelly Ann Shaw, Partner at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP- Pooja Sriram, VP:US Economics Research

Reza Pahlavi, Son of the Shah of Iran, joins to discuss the growing conflict between Israel and Iran and whether the country will work with the US on a deal to stop the fighting. Krishna Guha, Vice Chairman at Evercore ISI, joins to preview this week's Fed meeting and discusses his outlook for the US economy. Kelly Ann Shaw, Partner at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP, talks about the G7 summit, President Trump leaving early, and where the US stands on trade deals. Pooja Sriram, VP:US Economics Research, offers his outlook for the US economy and interest rates.

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