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cover of episode Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 9, 2025

Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 9, 2025

2025/6/9
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Bloomberg Surveillance
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People
A
Andrew Hollenhorst
C
Claudia Sahm
E
Elizabeth Economy
F
Francisco Blanch
Topics
Andrew Hollenhorst: 我认为美联储降息的时间点将推迟到九月，因为劳动力市场数据尚未给出明确的降息信号，美联储需要看到失业率上升才会采取行动。尽管硬数据尚未显示，但包括美联储褐皮书在内的迹象表明经济可能正在收缩，因此我仍然相信美联储将比市场预期更积极地降息。现在很难判断经济形势，但潜在的疲软迹象正在显现。劳动力市场仍然不舒服，持续申领失业金人数上升，表明人们重返工作岗位困难，失业率将会上升。住房市场正在萎缩，需要看到抵押贷款利率下降才能再次扩张，而这需要美联储降息。美联储需要降息，虽然他们不会直接对10年期国债收益率做出反应，但会通过数据间接反应。我认为美联储应该关注经济基本面，现在对通胀的关注是应对两三年前的问题，当时通胀被认为是暂时的。现在房价在下降，经济需求在降温，不会有太大的通胀压力，所以美联储可以忽略一次性的价格上涨。美联储对通胀的担忧，意味着他们会比通常情况等待更久，直到劳动力市场给出非常明确的信号才会降息。

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Shownotes Transcript

  • Andrew Hollenhorst, Chief US Economist at Citi- Elizabeth Economy, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution- Francisco Blanch, Head: Global Commodities at Bank of America- Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century AdvisorsAndrew Hollenhorst, Chief US Economist at Citi, discuses his outlook for the US economy and why his team is changing their rate cut prediction for 2025. Elizabeth Economy, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, discusses the latest developments in US-China trade negotiations. Francisco Blanch, Head: Global Commodities at Bank of America, talks about the outlook for commodities and oil and energy prices globally. Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, breaks down the health of the labor market and where it's trending in 2025.

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