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cover of episode Equity Rally Continues as Tariff Pause Continues

Equity Rally Continues as Tariff Pause Continues

2025/5/27
logo of podcast Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Surveillance

AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
H
Henrietta Treyz
J
Jane Foley
L
Lisa Mateo
N
Nicholas Burns
S
Steve Chiavarone
Topics
Steve Chiavarone: 我认为目前美股配置是合适的,海外投资者对美股配置不足,未来仍有买入空间。关税不确定性最糟糕的时期已过,现在处于降级阶段。美联储的言论令人惊讶,但我认为他们今年会降息。今年年初,我们决定坚持既定策略,并在市场低迷时增持股票,特别是大型成长股。我仍然认为下半年小盘股和周期性股票也会表现出色。只要美国消费者和劳动力市场保持强劲,我就不认为美国会陷入衰退。公司本可以以关税不确定性和经济放缓为借口裁员,但他们没有这样做,这表明劳动力市场仍然强劲。2020年的教训是,裁员后重新雇佣员工需要更长的时间和更高的成本。除非劳动力市场崩溃,否则我不认为会出现衰退。衍生品在满足特定客户需求方面可以发挥作用,但长期来看,保持投资才是关键。投资的关键在于了解客户的风险承受能力,并建立长期的资产配置,同时保持足够的灵活性。投资的难点在于保持投资和保持冷静,而不是投资本身有多复杂。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Steve Chiavarone, Senior Portfolio Manager at Federated Hermes, discusses his positive outlook on the US economy and the potential for a cyclical recovery. He believes that the worst of tariff uncertainty is behind us and that investors are appropriately positioned in US equities. He anticipates a slow but steady growth in US equities, attracting skeptical investors throughout the year.
  • Positive outlook on the US economy and potential for cyclical recovery
  • Belief that worst of tariff uncertainty is over
  • Anticipation of slow but steady growth in US equities

Shownotes Transcript

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF).Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 27th, 2025Featuring:1) Steve Chiavarone, Senior Portfolio Manager at Federated Hermes, talks about why he remains constructive on the US economy and the potential for a cyclical recovery in the US. The dollar bounced back, and equity-index futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 jumped more than 1%, as President Donald Trump extended a deadline on implementing aggressive Euro-area tariffs.2) Nicholas Burns, former US ambassador to China, joins for an extended discussion on US-China relations and where they stand in a second Trump administration. The plans for a new version of China's "Made in China 2025" campaign indicate that China will largely stick to its strategy of prioritizing manufacturing, despite criticism from the US and Europe, and will focus on developing core technologies such as semiconductors and new energy materials.3) Jane Foley, Head of FX Strategy at RaboBank, talks about dollar weakness and the yen carry trade amid noise coming out of the Japanese bond market. Tong-term government bonds yields in Europe and Asia also fell, while the yen and other currencies declined, as investors reacted to the news from Japan. Japan’s 20-year bond yield slid as much as 21 basis points after Bloomberg News reported the nation’s finance ministry asked market participants for their views on the appropriate amount of government debt issuance.4) Henrietta Treyz, co-founder at Veda Partners, joins to discuss the trade deals likely not to materialize for President Trump's administration, and what types of tariff rates the US could expect this summer5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a Business Insider story on bringing plus-ones on work trips and a WSJ story on the skyrocketing cost of a Hamptons girls weekend trip.

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