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cover of episode Market and Inflation Outlook and a Shocking NYC Victory

Market and Inflation Outlook and a Shocking NYC Victory

2025/6/25
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Bloomberg Surveillance
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People
A
Ali Vaez
A
Alicia Levine
B
Brian Levitt
全球市场策略师，负责开发和传达投资前景和见解，广泛媒体曝光和教育项目参与。
F
Fred Neuman
Topics
Brian Levitt: 我认为今年上半年的经济形势良好，但政策不确定性超出预期，导致了对经济衰退的担忧。不过，决策者们普遍采取了退让的态度，至少在关税方面暂停，美联储也可能听起来更加鸽派。因此，市场目前预期政策会逐步改善。尽管经济数据可能让美联储按兵不动，但我认为最终会降息。市场相信短期利率将会下降，我也赞同这一点。增长可能放缓，关税效应可能导致物价上涨，但就业市场和通胀预期稳定，美联储可能会倾向于宽松政策。我认为即使在高点投资，也比持有现金或进行平均成本法更好。投资者应该关注优质企业，这些企业能够经受住我们所面临的挑战。市场可能会扩大，小盘股和价值股可能会表现更好，但这可能需要宽松政策和经济活动的复苏。关税带来盈利风险，因为企业可能需要吸收关税带来的成本，从而影响盈利能力。名义增长环境仍然良好，大约在4%到4.5%左右。消费者和企业可以适应关税带来的变化，我们只需要明确性。在要素方面，质量仍然是一个重要的因素，因为领先指标正在下降。目前更倾向于高质量的环境，但随着政策响应和领先指标的回升，我们将会回到更具复苏感的状态。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter discusses the state of the economy in the first half of 2025, focusing on policy uncertainty, recession fears, and the Federal Reserve's potential response. The discussion includes the impact of tariffs on businesses and consumers and the outlook for earnings.
  • Policy uncertainty led to recession fears.
  • The market expects continued policy improvements.
  • Rate cuts are anticipated from the Federal Reserve.
  • There's earnings risk due to tariffs.
  • The nominal growth environment is around 4-4.5%.
  • Quality stocks are preferred in the current environment.

Shownotes Transcript

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF).Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJune 25th, 2025Featuring:1) Brian Levitt, Global Market Strategist at Invesco, joins to discuss his outlook for equities and the economy in the second half of 2025. Fed Chair Jay Powell told lawmakers that if inflation pressures remain contained, the Fed will cut rates sooner rather than later, but didn't point to a particular meeting, and markets are telling Powell that he will be lowering rates more quickly than he portrayed.2) Fred Neuman, Chief Asia Economist at HSBC, joins for a discussion on how an oil spike could lead to an inflation spike, and why the Israel-Iran conflict's impact on oil is crucial to China and Asian economies. It comes as President Trump announced on social media that China can continue to purchase oil from Iran, potentially undermining years of US sanctions on Iran. The announcement surprised oil traders and officials in Trump's own government, and it is unclear how the US Treasury and State Department will interpret and enforce related sanctions.3) Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director of the Crisis Group's Iran Project, joins to discuss the conflicting views about the whether the US destroyed Iran's nuclear capabilities and whether there is any room for diplomacy in the Israel-Iran conflict. President Trump disputed an intelligence report that found the airstrikes he ordered on Iran had only a limited impact on its nuclear program. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains fragile, with a focus on nuclear diplomacy and assessments of how much damage was done to Iran's nuclear program.4) Alicia Levine, Head of Investment Strategy and Equities at BNY, joins to talk about volatility in equities and offers her S&P target. Traders are shifting their focus to the US economy and how trade risks and fiscal pressures could affect corporate earnings and growth, with a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran appearing to hold.

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