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cover of episode Market Rises amid Policy Uncertainty

Market Rises amid Policy Uncertainty

2025/6/27
logo of podcast Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Surveillance
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People
F
Freya Beamish
J
James Steel
L
Lisa Mateo
M
Monica Guerra
N
Neil Dutta
领导宏观经济研究，专注于分析美国经济和全球趋势的经济学家。
Topics
Neil Dutta: 我认为股市上涨是痛苦的交易，因为看跌者多于看涨者。虽然股市是有效的贴现机制，但并非完美。股市上涨的原因是盈利预期上升、风险溢价下降以及贸易方面的利好消息。然而，近期经济数据总体为负面，这可能会影响未来的盈利。我更关注美国劳动力市场的持续恶化和房地产市场的持续恶化，特别是新的单户住宅。实际个人支出为负值，预示着GDP的下调。消费者对价格上涨有抵触，因为他们的预算受到限制。实际收入（扣除转移支付后）仅增长1.5%，这决定了消费支出的走向。新房市场存在大量库存积压，这意味着建筑商没有动力开工建设新房。建筑活动的减少会对就业产生影响。房屋价格正在下降，尤其是在南部和西部地区。美联储内部对降息存在分歧。如果失业率上升，劳动力市场可能会成为通货紧缩的来源，美联储需要关注这一点。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Neil Dutta, Head of US Economic Research at Renaissance Macro, discusses the disconnect between record-high stock markets and a cautious economic outlook. He points to earnings, interest rates, and risk premium as factors driving stock prices, while highlighting concerns about deteriorating labor markets and housing.
  • Stock market at new highs despite cautious economic view
  • Earnings estimates rising, risk premium falling, interest rates decreasing
  • Deteriorating labor markets with rising unemployment claims
  • Worsening housing market with falling new home starts and rising unsold inventory

Shownotes Transcript

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF).Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJune 27th, 2025Featuring:1) Neil Dutta, Head of US Economic Research at Renaissance Macro, reacts to PCE and breaks down the latest economic data. Stocks gained in early trading as the US moved closer to trade deals with China and other major trading partners, with expectations rising for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts this year.2) Monica Guerra, Executive Director and Head of US Policy at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, talks about her "US Policy Pulse" note on the energy sector and geopolitical dynamics, and can also discuss the tax bill and tariff deadline. China and the US have further confirmed details of a trade framework and the Treasury Department has announced a deal with G-7 allies to exclude US companies from some taxes imposed by other countries in exchange for removing the Section 899 "revenge tax" proposal from President Trump's tax bill.3) Freya Beamish, Chief Economist at TS Lombard, talks about global bond market signals and US economic resilience. The Stoxx Europe 600 index climbed in early trading after data Friday showed inflation inched up in France and Spain, but not enough to concern European Central Bank officials who are optimistic that their 2% target will be met sustainably this year. 4) James Steel, Chief Commodities Analyst at HSBC, talks about gold hitting record highs and the outlook for gold and other metals. 5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a Bloomberg News story on Target trying to compete with Costco and an FT story on whether K-pop losing steam.

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