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cover of episode Markets Pricing in US Strikes on Iran

Markets Pricing in US Strikes on Iran

2025/6/23
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Bloomberg Surveillance
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
L
Lori Calvasina
P
Paul Sankey
R
Richard Haass
R
Robert D. Kaplan
S
Steven Englander
Topics
Richard Haass: 我认为美国对伊朗核设施的军事打击，虽然在战术上令人惊讶，但战略上并不意外。重要的是，现在危机的主动权已经转移到伊朗手中，他们将决定局势如何发展。尽管如此，我认为伊朗不太可能立即报复，他们的首要任务是维护政权稳定。当然，他们仍然具备多种军事能力，例如发射导弹、干扰航运或进行网络攻击。我认为美国国务院在过去几十年里逐渐衰弱，外交能力被削弱，本届政府过度依赖自上而下的外交方式。关于伊朗的政权更迭，我认为这更多是一种愿望，而非战略，且难以通过外部力量实施。总的来说，我认为美国需要谨慎权衡在中东的行动，避免过度干预，同时加强自身的外交能力。 Robert D. Kaplan: 我认为技术已经永久性地改变了我们的地图和地理概念，美国通过技术手段缩短了与伊朗的距离。只要我们坚持空袭和海军力量，就不会陷入中东泥潭。我认为伊朗可能会在数日或数周后做出回应，可能是恐怖袭击或袭击美国军队。伊朗是一个拥有数千年历史的民族国家，拥有高度复杂和发达的文化。简单地认为一次袭击就能导致伊朗政权更迭过于简单化。我认为美国应尽量避免再次袭击伊朗，降低局势温度。内塔尼亚胡是一位具有世界历史意义的人物，他能够出人意料地袭击伊朗，并促使特朗普采取行动。我认为以色列现在应该回报美国的帮助，开始从加沙撤军。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter discusses the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, the potential for wider conflict, and the impact on global markets. Experts analyze the situation, discussing Iran's potential response and the strategic implications for various global actors. The discussion also delves into the legal authority of the President to launch such strikes and the potential for regime change.
  • US strikes targeted Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
  • The conflict raised concerns about oil prices and inflation.
  • Experts debate the likelihood of Iranian retaliation and its potential forms.
  • The discussion includes an analysis of President Trump's authority to strike Iran.

Shownotes Transcript

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF).Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJune 23rd, 2025Featuring:1) Richard Haass, Senior Counselor with Centerview Partners & President Emeritus at Council on Foreign Relations, joins for a discussion on the Israel-Iran conflict. Iran vowed retaliation and continued attacks on Israel following US strikes on its nuclear facilities, fueling fears of a wider war in the Middle East and rattling global markets. The conflict has also raised concerns about oil prices and inflation.2) Robert D. Kaplan, author and foreign affairs expert, joins for a discussion on the Iran-Israel conflict and whether the US involvement stops at this weekend's strikes. The US operation targeted nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, and included 125 aircraft, strikes by Tomahawk missiles, and the use of 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs.3) Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, on why oil has now become central to her 2025 S&P target. US equity futures advanced and crude prices fluctuated on speculation that Iran's response to Washington's bombing of its nuclear sites is unlikely to significantly disrupt oil traffic from the Middle East.4) Steven Englander, Global Head of G10 FX Research and of North America Strategy for Standard Chartered Bank, brings us into the market open and discusses how the Fed's approach to rates could be reshaped by a potential oil and inflation spike. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose two basis points to 4.39%, and a data release showed private sector activity in the euro area barely grew in June, as erratic US trade policy and geopolitical conflicts leave companies uncertain about what's next.5) Paul Sankey, Lead Analyst at Sankey Research, discusses the path for oil and energy from here. Oil prices initially surged after US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, but later dropped as fears of an immediate supply disruption faded. The oil market remains gripped by an escalating crisis, with risks including a potential disruption to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on crude infrastructure in rival suppliers.

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