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cover of episode Markets Rally as Powell and Policy Uncertainty Loom

Markets Rally as Powell and Policy Uncertainty Loom

2025/6/30
logo of podcast Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Surveillance
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
E
Ebrahim Rahbari
H
Heather Boushey
H
Henrietta Treyz
J
Jeffrey Rosenberg
L
Lisa Mateo
P
Paul Sweeney
Topics
Jeffrey Rosenberg: 作为BlackRock的投资组合经理，我认为市场变化迅速，固定收益展望需要不断调整以适应关税和债券等因素的影响。尽管市场波动，但固定收益的前景相对乐观，十年期国债的波动性不如股票市场。目前信用风险定价并不吸引人，但收益率加上利差仍然具有吸引力。传统的60/40投资组合策略需要重新思考，因为它依赖于低通胀环境下的美联储宽松政策。汇总的宏观数据掩盖了经济内部的许多问题，在评估公司债券和股票市场时，考虑经济数据的分布情况非常重要。美联储应该采取观望态度，因为目前不确定政策和政策不确定性对宏观数据的影响。尽管就业市场可能放缓，但仍然强劲，美联储有等待的空间。美联储应该根据数据变化调整政策，关注关税对通胀的影响以及就业放缓是否加速。政府在国防上的支出如果用于研发等具有军民两用目的的项目，可能会促进生产力提高。 Paul Sweeney: 我认为目前应该增加投资组合中的久期。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Jeffrey Rosenberg discusses the bond market's recent performance and outlook, highlighting the impact of tariffs and policy uncertainty. He emphasizes the importance of yield and the need for a wait-and-see approach from the Federal Reserve.
  • Bond market's best monthly return since February
  • Concerns about tariffs and their impact on bonds
  • Importance of yield in fixed income investments
  • Federal Reserve's wait-and-see approach

Shownotes Transcript

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF).Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJune 30th, 2025Featuring:1) Jeffrey Rosenberg, Portfolio Manager: Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund at BlackRock, joins to talk about his quarterly fixed income outlook and the bond market's warning shot. Investors will also turn to upcoming economic data, including the monthly payrolls report due Thursday, to assess the strength of the economy and the outlook for rates.2) Henrietta Treyz, co-founder at Veda Partners, discusses the Senate's deliberations over the Big, Beautiful Bill as well as the looming tariff deadline. Senate Majority Leader John Thune is working to pass President Trump's tax and spending bill by July 4, but faces opposition from around eight Republican senators who have concerns about the bill's provisions.3) Ebrahim Rahbari, Head of Rates Strategy and US Research at Absolute Strategy Research, joins for an extended discussion on US and global interest rates, inflation projections, and Jay Powell's approach ahead of his comments tomorrow in Sintra. Central bank chiefs from the US, euro zone, Japan, South Korea, and the UK will discuss monetary policy at the European Central Bank's annual retreat in Portugal, amid global economic uncertainty caused by Donald Trump's presidency.4) Heather Boushey, Senior Research Fellow at Harvard University and former member of the Council of Economic Advisers and Chief Economist for the Invest in America Cabinet, breaks down the Trump administration's latest economic policies, including the tax bill, tariffs, and approach to the weakening labor market. The tax bill's progress is being closely watched, with markets and renewable energy stocks reacting to concerns about the bill's impact on wind and solar projects, and Trump pushing for speed and threatening to primary senators who oppose the bill.5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ story on Cracker Barrel and a Bloomberg News story on Squid Game.

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