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cover of episode Markets Soar on US-China Trade Truce

Markets Soar on US-China Trade Truce

2025/5/12
logo of podcast Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Surveillance

AI Deep Dive Transcript
People
D
Dan Ives
G
Geoffrey Yu
H
Huw van Steenis
J
Jordan Rochester
L
Lori Calvasina
Topics
Geoffrey Yu: 我认为,短期来看,美中贸易战的缓和不会改变中国长期经济战略。中国将继续推进经济结构调整和供应链多元化,以减少对美国市场的依赖。这包括与其他国家签订贸易协议,例如与巴西的协议,以及在其他地区建立新的供应链。 从美国方面来看,我希望这是一个短期的波动,但我们需要观察美国能否继续保持其经济上的例外地位。这将取决于美国的经济增长、通货膨胀和美联储的政策。 Jordan Rochester: 美中贸易战的缓和将导致美元走强,"做空美国"的叙事将被挤压。降低关税将使美国公司更容易进口中国商品,这将有助于缓解通货膨胀压力。 此外,这将有助于逆转最近的"做空美国"的叙事,因为许多投资者对美元的持续疲软做出了押注。然而,长期来看,我认为欧元兑美元汇率将在年底达到1.20,因为欧洲的增长潜力将会增强。 Lori Calvasina: 尽管美中贸易紧张关系有所缓和,但市场仍面临其他不确定性,例如通货膨胀和经济衰退风险。中小盘公司受影响更大,因为它们在应对这些挑战方面能力较弱。 此外,情绪指标看涨,而经济指标则较为悲观。这种紧张关系表明,尽管市场在当天上涨,但经济方面的逆风并没有消失。我仍然看好金融板块,并建议投资者保持平衡的投资组合,关注高质量股票。 Huw van Steenis: 欧洲作为投资目的地的复兴,信用机会比股票机会更清晰。美国投资者今年对欧洲股票的投资是去年的7倍,但关键问题是,这是一种战术性交易还是战略性交易? 我认为,信用机会更为明显,因为欧洲将投入数千亿美元用于基础设施、数字技术和国防建设。欧洲信贷的收益率目前高于美国,而且银行的资本仍然有限,因此信贷投资者拥有良好的机会。 Dan Ives: 美中贸易关系缓和对科技公司来说是最佳情况,将推动科技股上涨,特别是苹果公司。降低关税将使苹果公司更容易在中国生产产品,这将有助于提高其盈利能力。 此外,这将有助于消除中国对苹果公司采取报复性措施的担忧。我认为,这将使苹果公司在未来12个月内股价达到300美元,甚至更高。

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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF).Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 12th, 2025Featuring:1) Geoffrey Yu, Senior Strategist: EMEA at BNY, talks about the market reaction to the US-China trade agreement and why the worst-case scenarios for markets are now a thing of the past. Investors rushed back into US assets, powering a 3% surge in S&P 500 futures, after China and the US agreed to cut tariffs and de-escalate their trade war.2) Jordan Rochester, Head: FICC Macro Strategy EMEA at Mizuho, on the "Sell America" narrative getting squeezed as the US dollar strengthens. The dollar topped a one-month high on the US-China trade talks, while gold fell more than 3% and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed five basis points to 4.42%.3) Lori Calvasina, Chief US Equity Strategist at RBC Capital Markets, joins for an extended discussion on equity relief post-US-China trade talks and whether she expects further choppiness. Every S&P 500 sector has advanced since President Trump's April 9 pause on his harshest tariffs, with gains led by information technology, industrials, and consumer discretionary segments.4) Huw van Steenis, Vice Chair at Oliver Wyman, on how international investors will re-balance their portfolios in reaction to US-China trade talks. Market breadth indicators, such as the 40-Week Technique Indicator and the S&P 500's cumulative advance-decline line, are signaling optimism and strength in the market, with some strategists boosting their allocation to stocks.5) Dan Ives, Global Head: Technology at Wedbush Securities, talks about why the result from Treasury Secretary Bessent's negotiations are the "best case scenario" for tech. Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, and Tesla took off in premarket trading following the announcement on trade.

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