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cover of episode Outlook for Israel-Iran Conflict and Energy Prices

Outlook for Israel-Iran Conflict and Energy Prices

2025/6/16
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Bloomberg Surveillance

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C
Cam Harvey
E
Ed Morse
H
Henrietta Treyz
L
Lisa Mateo
W
Whitney Tilson
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Ed Morse: 我认为人们对伊朗石油和天然气的理解存在误解,实际情况并非伊朗拥有丰富的石油和天然气。伊朗的石油生产受到抑制,天然气生产也面临困境,尽管该国拥有世界第二大天然气储量。以色列对伊朗天然气设施的轰炸可能会对伊朗造成打击。伊朗政府缺乏公众的认可和支持,通货膨胀率高,货币贬值。伊朗政府由民选官员、神权统治和伊斯兰革命卫队组成,其治理结构存在弱点,但短期内不会被推翻。OPEC+的主要目标是为油价设定一个底线,但其处境复杂,因为主要国家与伊朗建立了新的关系,尽管他们批评以色列的行动,但希望置身事外。美国应该继续保持中立,并表示希望就伊朗的核未来达成协议,因为伊朗正处于绝望的境地,在保护人民和自身政府方面都明显失败了。伊朗不可避免地会达成协议,美国需要参与其中,以确保协议的有效性。霍尔木兹海峡对全球石油供应至关重要,但中国和俄罗斯都反对伊朗关闭该海峡。

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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF).Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJune 16th, 2025Featuring:1) Ed Morse, Senior Advisor at Hartree Partners and former Head of Global Commodities at Citi, joins for an extended discussion on the outlook for global oil and commodities. The hostilities between Israel and Iran disrupted market momentum, but traders increasingly anticipate that the conflict will remain contained, leading to dip-buying on Monday. In the premarket, Brent crude dropped 0.4% after initially soaring as much as 5.5% following a weekend of attacks. Gold dropped 0.5% from Friday’s all-time high.2) Henrietta Treyz, co-founder at Veda Partners, joins to discuss the latest DC headlines including President Trump's trip to the G7 in Canada and the US' role in the Israel-Iran conflict. The conflict has caused damage to the US consulate in Tel Aviv, and has led to a rise in global energy prices. Hostilities between Israel and Iran have entered a fourth day, with no sign of easing, and have resulted in hundreds of deaths.3) Cam Harvey, professor at Duke's Fuqua School of Business, looks ahead to this week's Fed meeting and talks about why gold is continuing to rise as a hedge. Markets are looking ahead to interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, as well as a meeting of the Group of Seven nations, later this week.4) Whitney Tilson, NYC mayoral candidate and former hedge fund manager, talks about his candidacy for NYC mayor ahead of the Democratic primary next week. Early voters are flocking to polls as leaders are emerging in the packed list of candidates: former NY Governor Andrew Cuomo and state assemblyman Zohran Mamdani.5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including WSJ's story on the next big thing in luxury travel and Bloomberg Screentime's story on YouTube serving as a longform platform for videos.

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