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cover of episode Reaction to May CPI

Reaction to May CPI

2025/6/11
logo of podcast Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Surveillance
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
G
Gina Martin Adams
L
Lori Calvasina
M
Mona Mahajan
V
Virginie Maisonneuve
W
Winnie Cisar
Topics
Mona Mahajan: 作为一名投资策略师，我认为投资者应该关注科技七巨头和债券的投资机会。虽然短期内市场可能面临波动，但长期来看，美联储降息和税收法案可能会支持经济增长。公司盈利可能会在2026年加速。此外，消费者韧性依然存在，但过度建设库存可能会带来不利影响。 Gina Martin Adams: 作为一名股票策略师，我认为服务业通胀的下降是个好消息，但生产者价格通胀与消费者价格通胀之间的差异也很重要。利润取决于PPI，如果PPI较高，公司将面临利润率挤压。具有定价能力的公司能够更好地控制利润率，目前来看，只有科技七巨头公司具备这种能力。应该将科技七巨头与非科技七巨头公司区别对待，随着关税暂停的结束，非科技七巨头公司可能会复苏。此外，在波动率上升的环境中，低波动率股票可能会表现更好。 Winnie Cisar: 作为一名信贷策略师，我认为市场似乎认为美联储维持利率不变对信贷利差有利。我们在2021年注入到系统中的流动性仍在产生长期影响。现在就断定情况已经明朗还为时过早，因为我们仍处于关税博弈的早期阶段，而且可能会有累积性的税收减免，这可能会导致通货膨胀。机构抵押贷款支持证券相对于美国投资级公司债券的相对价值被错误定价了。在一个原本良性的市场中，似乎总会出现一些特殊的麻烦情况，而信贷市场总是处于一种“赶紧行动，然后等待”的状态。 Virginie Maisonneuve: 作为一名全球首席投资官，我认为今年早些时候，许多全球投资者果断地从美国市场转向世界其他地区。投资者对美国的投资敞口过高，美元走强，美国在创新和人工智能方面表现出色，导致估值与欧洲和亚洲的差距拉大。欧洲的国防财政计划具有变革意义，大多数投资者不再投资中国，但中国在创新方面表现出色，日本也重新崛起，这些因素促使人们重新平衡投资组合。应该继续投资美国的科技股，同时也应该投资中国和日本等其他地区的科技股。 Lori Calvasina: 作为一名美国股票策略师，我认为不同的行业对关税的反应非常不同。AAII每周调查显示，市场情绪正在迅速恢复，并开始担心会很快回到去年10月和11月的水平。小盘股通常更难应对市场问题，但某些小盘股（如金融股）的关税风险较低，更多的是宏观风险。要推动小盘股上涨，需要美联储降息或真正的经济刺激和顺风因素。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Experts discuss the current state of the US economy, considering factors like inflation, tariffs, and consumer behavior. The conversation centers on whether a recession is likely and what the future holds for long-term investors.
  • 20% rally in the S&P 500 after initial tariff anxieties
  • Cooling economic growth anticipated, but no recession predicted
  • Services inflation softer than expected, closer to 2% target
  • Companies building inventories, potentially delaying price increases

Shownotes Transcript

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF).Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJune 11th, 2025Featuring:1) Mona Mahajan, Senior Investment Strategist at Edward Jones, Gina Martin Adams, Chief US Equity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Winnie Cisar, Global Head: Strategy at CreditInsights, react to CPI. While the CPI reading remains important as an indicator of the path of US inflation, traders are waiting to get clarification on what the real trade story is and how much global growth will be impacted. 2) Virginie Maisonneuve, Global CIO Equity at Allianz, joins to discuss the global equity outlook and how inflation could play a role in US and global investments. Financial markets are closely watching whether the US and China could tamp down tensions that economists say have tipped the global economy into a downturn. After some 20 hours of negotiations in London, US officials said both sides had established a framework to revive the flow of sensitive goods, even though the plan still needs sign-off from Trump and Xi Jinping.3) Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, talks about her S&P 500 target and how that could be changed by today's inflation reading. Investors have been shifting to under-owned, riskier pockets of the market like small caps and high-beta stocks, with Nomura strategist Charlie McElligott citing a “right-tail” risk.4) Karen Manna, Vice President at Federated Hermes, joins to discuss warnings signs from the bond market and opportunities for bond investors. Bond vigilantes remain focused on the US debt and deficit as uncertainty over tariffs and inflation continue.5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including an NYT story on an AI company looking to take white collar jobs and a story in The Times on parents valuing baby girls over boys.

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