Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Audrey Childe-Freeman & Tony Crescenzi
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It's as simple as that. Just to give you a snapshot into it, there was a point where we had four events going on at once, and everyone, you know, should do this, do this, do this. We're making it up as we go, as we do with Single Best Idea. Audrey Child Friedman joined us here. Talk about what's after Chairman Powell. Weaker dollar, stronger euro, stronger yen, even EM doing quite well as well. Audrey Child Friedman,

And the euro, the dollar. All of that, you know, euro-dollar strength.

With the exception, I would say, the German fiscal announcement has been many dollar, weaker dollar driven. And what I'm saying is that if we want euro dollar to go to 140, and I think it's feasible, we kind of need a new trigger. But this time from Europe. All of the bad news out of the US, well, I hope so anyway, but most of that is kind of in the price range.

Or maybe we break 120. But can we go to 140? Can we stay there? And for that to happen, Tom, I'd like to see a trigger coming out of Europe. It really folds into travel for Americans. We've had a free lunch, some would say, of a strong dollar, weak euro, advantaging our travel markets.

across the ocean, and frankly, weaker sterling as well. That's changing. It's been a, what, 9% move or so in weaker dollar. You see a double of that, as Audrey alluded to. Wow, that makes the travel different. Tony Crescenzi with us from PIMCO, expert on short-term paper, just riveting today on what long duration actually means. Tony Crescenzi on the American economy. All we have to look at is how fast can the economy grow?

How fast is it growing? And that suggests a growth recession, not an outright recession, which is defined as a contraction in GDP, which was seen in the first quarter of the year. But what if the economy goes at 1% sort of PIMCO projection in that zone and consensus for the next year?

The Fed says it can grow, according to the Summary of Economic Rejections, about 1.7%, 1.8%, because that's the combination of the people and how productive they are. 0.3% increase in people, 1.5% increase in productivity. If we grow at 1%, a company will say, hmm.

I can handle about an increase of about 2% in demand for goods and services. It's only one. Should I slow hiring and spending? That depends on the sentiment that exists at that time. They could either say, yes, I'm going to cut back. I'm really nervous. Or it's short term. Don't worry about it and keep the game going. Tony Crescenzi there, he said in the conversation that seven year is about out to what the Fed needs.

can adjust, can amend, can change. He also said that the five-year elasticity, the dynamics of the five-year yield is probably more informative than the 10-year. The media, including me, we spend time focused on that 10-year maturity. Tony Cosenzi brings it into five.

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Thank you.

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