The Latest From Israel, Stock Picks and Supply Chain Disruption
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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Let's talk about Israel. A lot of change, a lot. It's a fluid situation. We all know it seems like President Trump is now

Going to take maybe up to two weeks to figure out what the next move will be on the part of the United States. Dan Williams joins us here. He's a reporter for Bloomberg News. He's in Jerusalem right now. Dan, what's the word on the ground in Israel right now? Well, as you noted, it's a waiting game. The Israelis aren't waiting, nor the Iranians. The exchange of fire, Israeli airstrikes and Iranian missiles continues. Arguably, however, the Iranian attacks continue.

do appear to be tapering off. According to an interview, in an interview he gave yesterday, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attributed this to Israel's shift, a shift by the Israeli military to targeting launch systems for the launchers are actually more important

than how many missiles the Iranians have in hand, because if you can't launch them, they're virtually useless. And he said yesterday that half, around half had been destroyed. That's an impressive pace, given that that mission appears to have lasted something like two, three days. So at that current rate, if it continues and succeeds by the Israeli account, presumably the Iranians may not have any launchers left

by the end of the weekend. So the Israelis seem fairly upbeat despite extraordinary damage to the home front from these missile strikes so far, including one on a hospital in southern Israel. Low casualty count relatively because many of the patients were moved out in advance, but nonetheless quite jarring for Israelis to see that hospital hit. Dan, what do we know about the timetable for President Trump to decide whether or not to strike Iran?

Well, as you wisely noted, the phrasing appeared to be very deliberate, as given by Press Secretary of the White House yesterday, within two weeks, not two weeks from now, within two weeks, which in theory could be two weeks from now. It could also be two minutes from now. So I think there's a degree of tactical operational haze here. It appears that the Americans, to a degree, assisted the Israelis in the initial ruse

that allowed the Israelis to drop the Iranians' guard and launch this attack a week ago precisely. You'll note that right before that attack, President Trump was speaking up the prospect of a diplomatic solution, saying he wouldn't approve or wasn't looking to see Israeli military action. And then as soon as that was launched, he appeared to change his tune. Now, that could have been because of the relative success, as reported to him, of the Israeli action. It's very hard to know what to make of these statements.

Formally, the Israelis say they would welcome American involvement, but they're willing and able to continue this themselves. The question is whether indeed the Israeli military has the firepower to handle a specific nuclear site, one buried deep underground in a mountain in an area called Fodo. Many speculate that for all its aptitude, for all its virtuosity operationally, the Israeli military is too lean, too small. It simply doesn't have the lift necessary

that the US Air Force would have to bring in very heavy bombs and finish that job. So Dan, is that, I mean, that's kind of been the reporting here that, you know, what is needed by or from the Americans is this, you know, kind of buster, you know, bomb that can really go deep underground and get to this facility. Is that all that's left for the Israelis vis-a-vis the Iranian nuclear capabilities?

Well, daily we hear of new nuclear sites that were hit. Some of them are primary sites, some of them are secondary sites to a nuclear program that may indeed, and the Iranians have always said this, have purely civilian components, although Israel and the international community have long been suspicious of the rate

and the intensity of uranium enrichment. This is a program that can produce bombs, fuel for nuclear weapons, if enriched beyond a certain point. So it appears that the Israelis, absent an intervention by the Americans, are demolishing everything they can in that nuclear program while also addressing Iran's missile program. Talk to us about how Israeli officials are warning that Iran is hijacking security cameras to spy on them.

Yes, it's a very interesting story by my colleague Marissa Newman. I recommend it. It would appear that the Israelis who apparently had a foreshadowing of this with Hamas attacks from the Gaza Strip. Hamas is a Palestinian group allied to Iran. As we all know, these are ubiquitous, these security systems, many of them linked up through Bluetooth.

You can see what your security camera sees on your phone sometimes if you're away from your home. And that is not a very secure system. So it appears the Israelis are now warning that the Iranians have hacked into these systems, which gives them a live view of certain key points in Israel, certain Israeli cities that they have been targeting with their missiles.

and gives them a real-time targeting set of information, something that might allow them to adjust their aim or know if they've been successful in hitting the targets. Obviously, as in any war, each side would want to conceal from the other such information. It would appear that the Iranians have used off-the-shelf, very cheap technology to achieve that kind of critical information.

Dan, thank you so much. We really appreciate your reporting on the ground from Jerusalem. Dan Williams, reporter, Bloomberg News, giving us the latest on the Israeli-Iranian situation. If this government spending in defense goes towards things like R&D that have dual use civilian purposes, you could get spillovers that actually end up enhancing productivity significantly.

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You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern. Listen on CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube. David Katz, President and Chief Investment Officer of Matrix Asset Advisors. David, what's the conversation you're having with your clients these days? They've kind of been whipsawed, but then you kind of look back and we're right where we started the year.

That's a great summary. Basically, our expectation going into the year was that it was going to be less lucrative than 2023 and 2024, but with a lot of volatility. So we're getting that. The key to investment success this year is not to get overly obsessed with the very short term. You've got a lot of overhangs right now that could drive the market down 5% or 10% pretty quickly.

But we do think the general economy is OK. Businesses are doing OK. And when all is said and done, the market's going to have an about average year. So the key is turn the volume down, be patient, not get caught up in the day-to-day volatility. OK, David, so how do you trade this? What specific stocks are you buying?

So that's an interesting thing. Right now, the market is at about 22 times earnings, but there are many, many pockets of stocks that are undervalued. So we're out there. I'm very happy. If you can buy something at 10 to 15, 16 times earnings, you can do real well. To give you just a big picture list and then we can focus in on things, things like American Electric Power, Apple, Pfizer.

Qualcomm are all really good businesses at very attractive prices. Pepsi is at one of the best prices it's been at probably in the last 10 years, and you're getting a 4.5% yield while you're waiting. So lots of things out there that are real good right now. You just have to have some patience and use a 6- to 12-month time frame, not try to trade for the very short term. You mentioned Pepsi and the dividend yield. Is that something, dividends and yields, is that something investors should be maybe

i guess paying more attention to given that there are so many crosswinds out there this year that this year may be at best uh an average year for returns is our dividend yield something that i don't know maybe people historically haven't paid attention to but maybe they should

Well, they definitely haven't paid as much attention in the last few years, and we think that they should. We think that's an area of the market that's got great opportunity. And interestingly and importantly, it tends to be a lot more conservative and protect capital during difficult times. So if you're worried about the ups and the downs of the market, buying high-dividend stocks is a way to get a good

absolute return and get paid while you wait. So we think that's a really good approach and think that's the place that you want to be right now. And Pepsi is a great example of that. Stock has done really poorly year to date. So if you're getting in on it now, you're getting a very good yield while you wait. We think they're going to fix the short-term problems. The stock's at 16 and a half times earnings.

generally sells north of 20 times earnings. Interestingly, if you look at Pepsi versus Coca-Cola, Pepsi is three standard deviations cheaper than it normally is versus Coca-Cola. Typically, that's not going to last very long. How do you view more of the riskier corners of the market, whether you're thinking about particular small cap stocks or rebalance sheet stocks? And even if you're thinking about non-profitable tech, obviously, they saw a big move from those April lows, but are there any pockets there that you're buying?

So in terms of small cap stocks in aggregate, they've underperformed the large cap stock market for the last three to five to 10 years. So we do think that there is an opportunity there. Within that, we would either focus on buying a small cap index at Russell 2000 or an S&P 600 as a place to go.

And if you're buying individual small cap names, it's very important to focus on strong balance sheets, companies that are profitable. Because when you're buying small caps in a economy that's going a little bit iffy in terms of tariffs, you don't want to get caught holding something with a lot of debt that really could get hurt very badly. So either strong balance sheets or focus on strong balance sheets, profitable or focus on the indexes.

You mentioned David Apple, and there's a name that everybody probably owns, whether they know it or not. Yet the stock is down 15% year to date, which is we don't typically see that kind of underperformance from Apple. What's what do you think is the bull case in the short to intermediate term for Apple?

Well, the underperformance lies the opportunity. We've been liking some of the Mag 7 that have not done well at the beginning of the year. And all of a sudden, they rebounded very nicely, whether it's a Google or a Microsoft or an Amazon. We think that Apple's in that same situation. So short term, Apple has some issues. They really have been very late to the game in terms of A.I.

And in terms of their last meeting, it's going to take a lot longer than anybody would like. However, they still have a dominant market share. They're going to get AI right. Wall Street and the investment community likes to own this stock. So we think it's in a trading range of about 190 to 250. So you're getting at the lower end of that trading range. You just want to look at six to 12 months. Something better will be happening in Apple. Great balance sheet. And they will get it right. This is the time to get involved with it.

David, thanks so much for joining us. Really appreciate it. David Katz, President and Chief Investment Officer, Matrix Asset Advisors. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say, Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130. When I was at the Chase Manhattan Bank, we had a big trade finance group. I never hung out with them.

Really wonky, making some serious stuff and some people do it very well. Like our next guest, Elisa Rusanoff, CEO of Eltech, which is a technology company that works with folks in the trade finance business. Global trade. I don't know. I guess all we know about global trade these days is tariffs and how that's impacting global trade. Is it how's that impacting your business? Talking to the people that actually provide credit for people who trade goods and services around the world.

Just like, well, first of all, good to be back. Thanks for having me back. First of all, I think it's the same issue as all the other lenders, all the other private credit providers and players in the markets. You're kind of facing both sides. You're facing uncertainty in the economy. So you're basically facing the credit spread risks

The spreads are going up. The banks are becoming a little bit more conservative in terms of their credit box. But also on the other side, productivity and AI automation, the technology that could streamline the entire process of credit underwriting. So there's challenges and there's opportunities. So we're facing the same kind of risk in trade finance.

And honestly, the trade finance space is usually booming in terms of volume just because there's a lot of liquidity gaps in trade. So as a customer, for example, you have to pay your vendors in advance. So you need money for that. You need liquidity for that. But also you're getting paid by your customer actually

on longer terms as well. So, DSO, day sales outstanding, is actually increasing in the events of uncertainty. So, this is where the lenders come in, they underwrite the credit, they understand the liquidity needs, and they actually provide that credit.

Private credit's been such a hot corner of the market. I know, Paul, you've talked about how in another life you wish you could jump back in and be in that corner of the market. I'm curious when you're looking at private credit, because so many people have argued, especially with rates being elevated since 2022, how that would hurt that part. But it hasn't just yet. What is the resiliency there in any sort of pockets that you're seeing any red flags?

I think we're not there yet. First of all, in terms of inflation, we're still watching what's going to happen with the economy, just like Jay Powell said this week. And the rates haven't changed. So we're watching what's going to happen. So we're not seeing a lot of write-offs right now. We're not seeing a lot of paid-in-kinds types of arrangements with the borrowers. But we're just watching what's going to happen in the market.

And honestly, the specific niche that I'm in, which is trade finance, is a little bit more specific in terms of its asset-based collateral, its collateral-based kind of lending. It's trade finance, which could be backed by inventory, by receivables. You can get credit insurance wraps around the receivables. So there's a lot of structured opportunities equity actually use in the market. So it's not a leveraged facility in a sense. It's always backed by some sort of collateral, which really helps in the environment like what we're in.

geopolitical tensions seem to be higher now than they've been in a long time in the Middle East, Russia, Ukraine. Does that impact? I'm guessing there's impacts on global trade, the cost of global trade, ensuring global trade. Does that come into your part of the market in terms of providing finance for these flow of goods and services? Yes, absolutely. As a lender, first of all, we have to be very mindful of various types of sanctions and fraud risks that are very high in the industry. But in addition to that,

we have to understand the real risks. So one of the risks, for example, is trade fraud, which basically means there is certain different tariffs on different countries and different jurisdictions. But it's really hard sometimes to go back in supply chain, to drill really down and deep into supply chain and understand where the goods are coming from.

so a lot of lenders are seeing a certain uptake in terms of trade fraud which really means if you're getting products from China for example but they're actually coming from Vietnam with a different certificate of goods that's trade fraud but at the end of the day it's really hard there are different rules and regulations so it's really hard to understand the supply chain because from Vietnam we're getting a lot of textile a lot of apparel and stuff like that so sixty percent of textile

uh... from yet uh... to vietnam is coming from china so the supply chain could be various right who's most at risk of trade fraud other wonders absolutely they've been quite a couple of cases in the past companies like rent sale and and stand a couple of others that were defrauded by by borrowers so there is a very high fraud risk on the positive part right now and same with the economy i think productivity a_i_ uh... aspiration uh...

Lenders are really trying to get a good tech stack for credit processes for operations for back-office processes because trade finance specifically has a lot of trade volume which basically means a lot of transactional volume details operational logistics and and things of that nature So AI can actually do full stack analysis full volume analysis the entire transactional volume and do predictive analysis as well which basically means that

understand the patterns and the patterns could be credit or there could be fraud, there could be operational risks, there could be tariff risks and other types of operational uncertainties. - Who are the big trade lenders today? Is it the JP Morgans of the world, the Citibanks of the world? Who does that stuff now?

Actually, it's different in different economies. So in Europe, it's more about banks. In the UK, it's more about banks. In the U.S., it's a really interesting market. So 2024, last year, I'm actually seeing a lot of decrease in terms of bank lender finance for trade finance specifically. I believe the number is south of 20% decrease. And for non-bank lending sector, it's actually uptake of 25 plus percent. Is that private credit?

It's private credit. It's factoring companies, privately held. It's not a regulated business. So there's a lot of non-bank lending groups and private credit funds and factoring companies and supply chain finance companies and fintechs that are actually adding a lot of volume. So there's a lot of money in the economy, a lot of hedge funds like Millennium and Baleazi and others. They raise a lot of money for trade finance strategy. Really?

- Millions of dollars. - Another thing I didn't know. - So at this point, actually the problem that we're saving-- - At this age, I'm supposed to know everything, Lisa. - We should hang out more. - Well, talk to us about nearshoring, what it is and some of the issues there. - Absolutely, so a lot of lenders are actually paying a lot of attention right now. First of all, diversification of vendors, but second of all is nearshoring. So even with government receivables sphere, we have to understand where the supplies are coming from.

we have to understand what the risks are. We have to understand where the supplies are coming from. So for lenders, it's actually an additional layer of underwriting and manual processes that have to be underwritten to understand the risks. Absolutely, just like any other public market investment professionals, we're trying to understand the risks and trying to mitigate risks because we have fiduciary responsibility to our LPs and investors, right?

So yeah, reassurance is one of the things a lot of lenders are looking into when trying to lend the money. What's the biggest risks to the trade finance business? I mean, I can see a million of them. I mean, fraud. I mean, because you're dealing with buyers and sellers all over the world, crazy parts of the world. I mean, what are the big risks?

I guess, for the trade finance business. - If you decide to change professions. - Yeah, exactly. - You're pretty good at that. And you're absolutely right. There's literally hundreds of different types of risks in the lending space and the trade finance space. First of all, it's KYC and KYB. Know your customer, know your business.

And olfactory checks and sanctions and understanding supply chains, understanding diversification of vendors so you don't find yourself in a situation like the COVID lockdown and shutdown of supply chains. But obviously credit risks are one of the risks, right? The spreads are going up in this economy. There's a lot of uncertainty. So that's why the non-banking markets

lending sector is actually trying to capture that low middle market that the banks are really not advancing against. I would say probably the biggest risk is fraud by far. And it could be so creative. It could be invoice driven, entities driven, jurisdictions driven, supply chain driven, etc. All right. Elisa,

We learn something new every time you come in here. Alicia Rusanoff, CEO of Eltech. For enterprise organizations, managing all your food needs is a tall order. But with EasyCater, you get a single workplace food vendor with the tools and resources to make it easy, giving teams across your organization an easy way to order from a huge variety of restaurants, all on one platform, all while consolidating your corporate food spend so you can control costs, streamlining billing and payment and simplifying reporting.

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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. It is time.

for the newspaper segment with Lisa Mateo. Lisa, what do you got for us today? Okay, this is a story about side hustles. We hear a lot about it, right? So in the past, it was a way for people to kind of pursue your passion. But now what the Wall Street Journal is saying is that it's a lot more about necessity. People are doing it because they have to do it, not because they really love it and want to.

So you had the labor department data show that working Americans holding down multiple jobs, it rose up to 5.5% during the first five months of the year. And then you have this report from Indeed that says more than half of people said that they have side hustles just to make ends meet. So you see like this shift that's going on, the different kinds of jobs are working. They're either driving for DoorDash, maybe they're freelancing for Fiverr, they're DJing, they're

being a nanny on weekends and nights. So they're doing a lot of different things. I personally always worked a second job until I got here. So you got here? So when you were at PIX11, you had another gig? I did. Well, I hosted another TV show, so I was always doing multiple things at once. Yeah, those gigs are very demanding. You go into any Starbucks anywhere in the USA, what are all those people doing there on their laptops?

I don't know. But I think that's powering part of the economy, I think. No, most definitely. So a lot of people do that because they have to. Yep, understood. Have you been to JFK recently? Because yesterday was another lounge that opened. It's for premium travelers. This one is from Cathay.

The lounges are all the thing now, right? So this one is 13,500 square feet. It's the lower level Terminal 4's retail area. Kind of has that New York theme because it's at JFK. It doesn't have a restaurant, but it has things like coffee bars, cheese stations, you know, espresso area with cocktails you can order, private bathrooms, a shower room. I've not been to the new JFK. You have? I have. It's a big chaos. I'm also not like the...

You're not the lounge person. Well, I don't get there early enough to get to a lounge. I'm the type of person that's like straight up running. If I didn't have that pre-check, I would have missed so many flights at this point. So, I mean, I hear great things about the JFK Lounge and Capital One. I mean, what I hear from the banks is branches they have, like our Capital One down in our building here on Lexington Avenue. It's not so much a branch. It's basically a big billboard.

It just said, we're here, we're in the marketplace. We're here's our, it's instead of having a billboard, we have a branch on the corner. That's kind of what I hear from some of these bankers. So that's why they have like coffee shops, things like that inside. You just put the name out there. What set this one apart though, what's different is that anyway, even if you're not a Capital One cardholder, you can go, but you have to pay about $90 each time you go. So that's the thing.

So there is a big event reportedly happening next week. It's the wedding between Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez. Really? Reportedly in Venice. Wow. They hired the wedding planner that planned George Clooney's wedding, right? Back in 2014. Solid.

there multi-day celebration today yes multi-day but the details are really under wraps so the Wall Street Journal talked to some experts because it's this trend of super weddings right people going over the top with these ginormous weddings they say that a multi-day luxury wedding with 200 guests can now cost them a couple's about four million dollars

because they have like caterers that are hiring food stylists. You have bartenders hiring mixologists. You have million dollar DJs. But how many people can really... It's crazy. We don't live these lifestyles. Jeff Bezos, he's living large, boy. I tell you, he stepped aside from that company and he's...

spending his money well he's loving life he is but what they're saying i want to see that invite list oh my gosh it's so secretive i know it's that's funny it's so secretive and what they're saying is that a wedding in venice is more expensive because all this stuff has to be like shipped over on boat yep so then you need more people to work it and then it's more expensive because of all that so it's they say it's a logistical nightmare but i'm sure hey

Hey, everything's going to turn out just fine. All right. Well, I'm very happy for Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez. Hopefully they'll have a lovely wedding there. Lisa Mateo with the newspapers. Thank you so much. We appreciate that. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts.

Listen live each weekday, 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. ♪

For enterprise organizations, managing all your food needs is a tall order. But with EasyCater, you get a single workplace food vendor with the tools and resources to make it easy, giving teams across your organization an easy way to order from a huge variety of restaurants, all on one platform. All while consolidating your corporate food spend so you can control costs, streamlining billing and payment and simplifying reporting.

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