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cover of episode Traders Watch for Weakening Signs amid Market Highs

Traders Watch for Weakening Signs amid Market Highs

2025/7/1
logo of podcast Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Surveillance

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People
B
Bob Michele
C
Cam Dawson
G
George Goncalves
L
Lisa Mateo
M
Michael Lasser
Topics
Bob Michele: 我认为美联储将在年底前降息,这使得债券市场充满机会。目前有大量资金在观望,投资者们正在寻找合适的时机进入债市。虽然外国投资者一度暂停投资美国债券,但之后又恢复了投资,他们对美国国债的信心依然存在。我认为黄金也是一个不错的选择,可以作为避险工具和对冲通胀的手段。我们不会回到零利率时代,但高质量的公司债券仍然具有吸引力。我们应该关注赤字和国债问题,但更应该看到,全球各国政府都在积极借贷和支出。 Cam Dawson: 我认为弱势美元通常有利于美国跨国公司,但同时也需要看到美元走弱才能证明非美国股票的配置是合理的。目前欧洲公司盈利预期上调,表明市场可能存在一些活力。我认为市场上涨是因为每个人都在上调盈利预期,机构投资者也开始追逐市场。我们认为收益率将在一定范围内波动,当收益率接近底部时,是耐心增持债券组合的时候。 George Goncalves: 我认为曲线后端面临来自供应担忧和财政前景的压力,但银行监管的SLR可能会导致银行界增持美国国债。目前经济喜忧参半,政策制定者感到困惑。我认为美元是最好的前瞻性指标,如果美国债券市场变得更加依赖国内,美国银行系统成为美国国债更大的买家,利率的上涨空间将受到限制。我预计10年期国债收益率将在年底达到4%左右,美联储将比市场和大多数同行降息更多。我认为日本央行仍致力于利率正常化,与其他央行背道而驰,而欧洲正在团结起来,扭转局面。

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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF).Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJuly 1st, 2025Featuring:1) Bob Michele, CIO: Fixed Income at JPMorgan Asset Management, joins for an extended discussion on the outlook for yields and why there could be more bond investment in 2025. The 10-year Treasury yield declined four basis points to 4.19% in the early morning as investors increased wagers on the scale of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year.2) Cam Dawson, CIO at NewEdge Wealth, talks about equity all-time highs and raising the pain trade. US equity futures retreated slightly after the S&P 500 notched its best quarter since 2023, as investors monitor progress on trade talks and wrangling in Washington over President Trump’s tax bill.3) George Goncalves, Head: US Macro Strategy MUFG Securities, Americas, talks about the outlook for US economic growth should the tax bill pass and his economic projections for 2025 as the labor market shows signs of weakening. Investors are also watching for a slew of economic data, including PMI readings and the US job openings report, ahead of Thursday’s nonfarm payrolls, and a discussion on monetary policy at the European Central Bank’s annual retreat.4) Michael Lasser, Equity Research Analyst: Consumer Hardline Staples at UBS, explores the potential ramifications of the bill on an aggregate consumer spending level, as well as the potential impacts for each consumer subsector and individual stocks. US consumer spending declined 0.3% in May, the most since the start of the year, indicating uncertainty around the Trump administration's economic policies is weighing on growth.5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a story from The Athletic on ESPN and MLB resuming broadcasting rights talks and a WSJ story on why the July 4th BBG may get more expensive.

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