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cover of episode Trump Blasts Xi on Trade as Tariffs Loom

Trump Blasts Xi on Trade as Tariffs Loom

2025/6/4
logo of podcast Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Surveillance

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Eric Rosen
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Ernie Tedeschi
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Robert Kaplan
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Sassan Ghahramani
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Sheila Kahyaoglu
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Robert Kaplan: 我认为当前的进出口关系充满挑战,关税政策对北美地区的供应链造成了阻碍。北美依赖从墨西哥进口的廉价劳动力和从加拿大进口的廉价自然资源,建立枢纽以促进综合物流和供应链安排,关税干扰了这些关系。如果所有制造成本都发生在美国,企业在全球竞争中会处于劣势,因此他们依赖墨西哥和加拿大等地的物流和供应链。全球商品供应过剩导致商品通货紧缩,但关税可能会改变美国的情况,关税导致企业暂停并重新考虑物流和供应链。关税给商品和服务带来了不确定性,从而抑制了经济增长。 Ernie Tedeschi: 我认为目前15%的有效关税率将使2025年的经济增长减少0.5个百分点,但即使增长率降至1.5%,也不一定会导致衰退。我们的模型可能低估了关税的不确定性影响,因此实际的衰退风险可能比一年前更高。关税在某种程度上抵消了财政担忧,因为它们在提高收入的同时减缓了增长。

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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF).Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJune 4th, 2025Featuring:1) Robert Kaplan, Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs, joins to discuss the Fed, interest rates, and resiliency of the US economy. US stock futures hold onto two days of gains as investors await labor market data, which has so far held up better than expected amid the Trump administration's trade war.2) Ernie Tedeschi, Director of Economics at the Yale Budget Lab, discusses his recent findings on the impact of tariffs on US companies and the US economy. Investors will follow services data and ADP's report on private-sector employment for updated information on the strength of the US economy, ahead of Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, as the market continues to climb on healthy eco data and in spite of tariffs.3) Sassan Ghahramani, President and CEO at SGH Macro Advisors, joins to discuss President Trump's social media post upending US-China trade sentiment. President Trump called Xi Jinping "VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH" in a late-night social media post, raising questions about the fragile economic truce between the US and China. Tensions between the two countries are increasing, with the US recently barring the shipping of critical jet engine parts to China and seeking to slap fresh curbs on Huawei= chips, among other measures.4) Sheila Kahyaoglu, Managing Director: Equity Research at Jeffries, talks about the air traffic controller concern for airlines and offers her analyst recommendations for US airlines.5) Eric Rosen, author at The Rosen Report and former head of credit trading at UBS, talks about the dollar's position on the globe and how deficits and debt could weigh on it. While some economists fear a notable weakening in US employment in coming months under the weight of tariffs, that hasn’t shown up in the data yet.

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