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cover of episode Carlyle Group Co-Chairman David Rubenstein Talks Bessent, Tariffs

Carlyle Group Co-Chairman David Rubenstein Talks Bessent, Tariffs

2025/5/5
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David Rubenstein: 我认为斯科特·贝森特今天早些时候的评论以及他向投资者的信息都非常到位。商界人士一直以来都对关税感到担忧,因为他们不确定最终结果。贝森特今天在《华尔街日报》的文章中也提到了经济计划的三个要素:关税、减税和放松管制。他很好地解释了这三者如何相互关联。如果政府能够顺利推进减税和放松管制,我认为商界会比较满意。关税仍然是商界的一个问题,因为他们不完全了解最终结果是什么。但我认为斯科特·贝森特做得相当不错。卡莱尔集团在华盛顿有很大的影响力,我们了解华盛顿的运作方式。 商界人士普遍愿意相信特朗普政府,因为他们希望政府能够成功。他们对关税有点困惑,但我认为他们愿意相信政府。目前,人们关注的是减税法案。我很快会在彭博社的一个节目中采访众议院筹款委员会主席杰森·史密斯。他们正准备举行听证会并修改该法案。该法案是否会按照商界的意愿进行,我们还不知道。但我认为减税是政府想要做的事情。 至于我们是否能够承担得起减税的财政赤字,这取决于如何处理数据。他们还没有想出如何处理4万亿美元的问题,也就是说,他们想让某些减税措施永久化,但不把这4万亿美元算作赤字的一部分。这是一种不同寻常的做法。也许他们可以做到。我不知道。 我与之交谈的人,无论是在我的节目中,还是在彭博社,或者是在私下与我的生意伙伴的谈话中,他们仍然保持乐观。商界人士天生乐观,他们通常认为事情会好转,而不是变坏。因此,我认为人们希望政府能够通过减税法案和放松管制,并达成一些关税协议。我认为斯科特·贝森特是一个非常聪明的人。到目前为止,我认为他在代表政府方面做得相当不错。我认为他是政府在经济方面最优秀的代言人。

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It is so loud here. We've been doing this all day. You come up here and you're the only one who's been doing this all day.

the only person we want to talk to. Because you know in all seriousness though David, we want to know what you think about some of the comments that we heard from Scott Besant earlier today and his message to investors. Did that message resonate with you? I think he did a very good job. Obviously the business people have been concerned about tariffs and not knowing where it's going to go.

He came out and basically more or less repeated what he had said in the Wall Street Journal article today, which is there are three elements of the economic program. One is tariffs. The other is tax cuts. The other is deregulation. And I think he did a really good job of explaining why all three mesh together. Now, they have to get these things done. But if they can get the tax cut through, they can get the deregulation they want through. I think the business community would be reasonably happy. The tariffs are still a bit...

of a problem for the business community because they don't fully understand what the end game is. But I think Scott Besson did a pretty good job. Obviously, Carlisle has a huge presence in Washington. You know how that city works. The business-friendly administration that was promised during the campaign, is that still intact or is that still going to show up?

I think the business community, by and large, is willing to give the Trump administration the benefit of the doubt. Because the business community, to the extent that business people tend to be CEOs and I'd say investors and Republican perhaps, they want to have this administration succeed.

They're a little bit confused about the tariffs, but I think they're willing to give the benefit of the doubt to the administration. Now, the tax cut bill is what people are focused on. And I will interview on a Bloomberg show soon the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, Jason Smith. And they are starting to get ready to have hearings and mark up that bill. And whether that bill goes in the direction the business committee wants, we don't know. But I think tax cuts are what the administration thinks is going to happen.

The question is, can you really afford it? Well, that's what I want to ask you, David. Can we afford with the deficit, the $37 trillion deficit? You can afford it if you, depends on how you massage the numbers. There's a $4 trillion number that they haven't figured out how to deal with yet, which is to say they want to make certain...

tax cuts permanent, but not count the $4 trillion as part of the deficit. That's an unusual thing to do. Maybe they can get away with it. I don't know. Are the people you're talking to, though, whether it's on your shows, on Bloomberg, whether it's privately with regards to your business, are they still optimistic? Business people, by and large, tend to be optimistic by nature. They generally think things are going to be better than things are not going to be good. So I think people are

hoping that the administration could get the tax cut bill through, the deregulation through. They hope that somebody can come along and get some of these tariffs agreements agreed to. I think Scott Besant is a really smart guy. I think he's done a pretty good job so far representing the administration. I think he's their best voice on the economy by far. Has anyone approached you

about being involved in this administration, whether in a formal or informal role? I think that's not likely. This administration fired me from being chairman of the Kennedy Center. So I think probably I'm not the first choice. But no, I think my days of being in government are probably behind us. All right, David, really appreciate you stopping by. My pleasure. Thanks a lot. David Rubenstein. You're a good sport. Thank you. Thank you so much. Carlisle Group co-founder and co-chairman. Also, of course, the host of the show Peer to Peer. Conversations right here on

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