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10/22/24: Polymarket Rigged For Trump, Kamala Threatens Black Men To Vote, Shock Diddy Case Updates, Theo Von Breaks Down Over Gaza Genocide
2024/10/23
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
K
Kamala Harris
第一位非裔女性和第一位亚裔美国人担任美国副总统，曾任加利福尼亚州检察总长和美国参议员。
K
Krystal
Kamala Harris: 降低住房成本和食品杂货价格是总统竞选的优先事项。
Krystal：Polymarket 上特朗普胜选赔率的飙升可能是由少数几个账户操纵的结果，而非市场真实反映。对 Polymarket 数据的解读需要谨慎，因为市场容易被操纵，且其预测并不总是准确的。此外，特朗普及其支持者利用 Polymarket 数据来为其潜在的选举舞弊指控做铺垫。
Saagar：同意 Krystal 的观点，并补充说明了 2012 年和 2016 年总统大选期间，类似的市场操纵和错误预测案例。他强调了市场波动性和不确定性，以及对政治预测的局限性。
Kamala Harris 的竞选广告利用了性别差距，暗示不投票给她的黑人男性将难以约会。这一策略引发了 Krystal 和 Saagar 的批评，他们认为这种做法不当且具有操纵性。他们分析了美国大选中的性别差距，以及这一差距对不同候选人策略的影响。
Deep Dive
Why are the Polymarket odds for Trump's win significantly higher than other models?
Four accounts, potentially belonging to one individual, have bet $30 million on Trump, skewing the odds.
Why did Elon Musk tweet about Polymarket?
Musk tweeted about Polymarket to highlight Trump's lead, potentially influencing the betting market.
Why is Kamala Harris's campaign using dating as a motivator for black men to vote?
The campaign is capitalizing on a real sociological phenomenon where women are less likely to date Trump supporters.
Why are there new allegations against Diddy?
New lawsuits allege Diddy sexually assaulted multiple women, including a minor, over the past two decades.
Why did Theo Von break down during his podcast?
Von was deeply affected by Dr. Gabor Mate's discussion on the psychological trauma faced by Palestinian children.
Why is Israel's demand for ending the war in Lebanon controversial?
Israel's demands include unrestricted military operations in Lebanese airspace and territory, infringing on sovereignty.
Discussion on the manipulation of Polymarket odds in favor of Trump, potential insider influence, and the implications for election integrity.
- Four accounts bet $30 million on Trump, skewing Polymarket odds.
- Elon Musk's tweets amplified the skewed odds.
- Polymarket's credibility questioned due to lack of transparency.
Shownotes Transcript