12/3/24: Trump Threatens 'Hell' In Middle East, The View Defends Hunter Pardon, Dinesh Admits 202 Lies, Retailers Set To Price Gouge, Homebuyer Age Spikes, UK Assisted Dying, AOC 2028
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Hey guys, Sagar and Crystal here. Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show. This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else. So if that is something that's important to you, please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today, and you'll get access to our

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Good morning, everybody. Happy Tuesday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal? Indeed we do. Many very interesting, actually, stories in the show today. So we're going to start off with Trump issuing quite a hawkish statement. You might say an Israel-first statement on True Social. We'll break down that for you. We've also got a Hamas response to that True Social statement. We've got some media reactions pulled for you after the Hunter Biden pardon that I think you may enjoy. We certainly did. We've got some media reactions pulled for you after the Hunter Biden pardon that I think you may enjoy. We certainly did.

We've also got some details for you about how retailers are planning to respond to potential Trump tariffs, as well as some very troubling indicators about the state of the housing market and just how difficult it is to get your foot on that initial first home buyer ladder. So break that down for you. Something we always want to keep our eye on. Sagar and I get into this debate about the UK assisted dying bill. Very interesting and fraught conversation that has been going on worldwide. AOC

is being floated for president. What do we think of that idea? And excited to have Cenk Uygur join me here in the studio this morning to talk about how to approach this Trump administration this time around. So that should be a good conversation. Always enjoy talking to Cenk. Yeah, that's going to be fun. And he will be in studio to talk with Crystal. That's always going to be exciting. So before we get to that, thank you to all of our premium subscribers who submitted questions. As we said, Crystal's going to be sitting down with Jon Favreau for a future conversation about the Democratic Party's

party. You guys submitted amazing questions that were extremely helpful. And we're actually going to ask John some of those in the interview. So that's really exciting. Yeah, genuinely, guys, I read through all the questions last night and you guys impressed the hell out of me. I was like, maybe I should just outsource this entire interview because genuinely,

really smart, thoughtful questions. So I'm excited to talk to him. Should be really very interesting. And it's going to be released early for our premium subscribers. You guys are going to have first access to that and it'll come out a little bit later for everybody else. But yeah, we're really excited. And thank you to all of our premium subscribers. Make sure you sign up for future stuff like that. You guys can submit questions continually as we continue to book, book, book,

Book big guests. That's a typical one here for the jet lag break. I was going to say, soccer is still struggling with jet lag. So howling the coffee over here. 1 to 3 a.m. It's an interesting hour. I don't recommend being awake for it. Yeah, it is so brutal. So brutal. This is probably the toughest jet lag ever. Really? Yeah, 14 hours. I mean, it's the farthest I've ever traveled. I was going to say, is it the most extreme? I think so, yeah. I mean, I can't even think what's another country that would be even more so. I think maybe Australia. I'll check later.

I think, yeah, we just actually looked. I think it's like 16. I don't remember. It's something like that. But anyway, comparable. Yeah. I mean, India, I think, was my furthest. What is that, 12 or 13? That's about 11 and a half, 12. Depends. Yeah. And I just remember being in the middle of the day and like that feeling of there is no way I'm going to make it to 8 p.m., 9 p.m. Like it's not happening. So anyway, but we're glad you're back. Thank you. Yeah.

Also, last thing before we jump into the show, if you are not able to become a premium subscriber, which we totally get, if you could help us out by liking, sharing, leaving us a five-star review on the podcast, all of those things really, really help out the show a lot. As Sagar mentioned yesterday, we don't do any marketing promotion. It's all...

word of mouth. And you guys are like the essential part of that. So if you can help us out there, we really appreciate it. All right, let's go ahead and jump into what Trump had to say on True Social about Israel and Gaza and Hamas and the hostages. Put this up on the screen. So he says, everybody is talking about the hostages who are being held so violently, inhumanely and against the will of the entire world in the Middle East. But it's all talk and no action.

Okay. Please let this truth serve to represent that if the hostages are not released prior to January 20th, 2025, the date that I proudly assume office, there will be, in all caps,

all hell to pay in the Middle East and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against humanity. Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied history of the United States of America. And in all cap, release the hostages now. We now have a response from Hamas, from Jeremy Scahill tweeted this. And I'll just read it to you guys. We didn't have time to make an element for it.

They say, the Hamas political bureau, number one, since the beginning of this genocide, Hamas has publicly announced and been active in seeking a permanent ceasefire to end the Israeli aggression against our people, a deal which would have included a full prisoner's exchange. Two, however, Netanyahu has sabotaged all these attempts. At many times, we were extremely close to signing on a deal, but due to his savage actions and decisions, these deals broke down. Three, therefore, Hamas understands that Trump's message is accurate.

actually directed first towards Netanyahu and his government. They need to end their evil game by using negotiations as a cover for their personal political ideological interests. Four, Hamas is committed to immediately implementing the Security Council Resolution 2735 and the deal struck on July 2nd, 2024. That's the one that Biden talked about. We are looking forward to the daytime, seeing an end of this genocide against our people, their free return back to their homes all over the Gaza Strip and our prisoners from both sides freed and enjoying living against

amongst their families again. And number six, our people are eager to secure a better future for their children, full of hope, dignity, and prosperity. Of course, I mean, the absurdity of Trump's statement, Sagar, is as if violence against Hamas has not yet been tried.

And, you know, he really positioned himself and sent out a lot of indicators to the Muslim American, Arab American and young community in America that he would be more, you know, amenable to peace, that he would be less hawkish in this region. There was always very little reason to believe that it would actually be the case.

This statement certainly flies in the face of that outreach. But Jeremy made an important point as well in this Twitter thread. Apparently, ceasefire negotiations have restarted. And so he interpreted this as a way for Trump to try to claim credit. Yes, that's exactly what I would say. If those ceasefire negotiations ultimately bear some sort of fruit.

I think Trump is a student of history. And one of the things that Republicans always love to hold on to is the Iranian hostage crisis. And so in 1980, a lot of people forget this, but the Iranian hostages were actually the American hostages held by Iran were released on the day of President Reagan's inauguration. That's another reason why he was the Reagan people were back channeling with the Iranians. So in order to sort of rig that election in that way. All right. Well,

It's common. That's true. Yes and no. Okay. The Carter people, look, this is too much of a rabbit hole to go down. The point is, is that the Reagan people have always celebrated the fact that the Iranians were so afraid of President Reagan that they were willing to release the hostages there on his inauguration day. President Carter flew over on Air Force One to go into

pick them up during the said inauguration. There are a lot of complicated reasons as to why all of that release and all that eventually did happen. But the point is, is that it was a great PR coup for Ronald Reagan. That's something that Donald Trump wants to recreate here. As to what exactly, what does he say? All hell will break loose or there will be hell to pay. I mean, yeah, that was my immediate reaction. I'm like, what exactly has Israel not done to the Gaza Strip that the United States has

would be able to do. Maybe presumably he means going after Hamas funders or Iran or Hezbollah or any of those. But even that, of course, would be something that would be diametrically opposed to the things he said. It is almost certain what he is trying to do is to both signal being pro-Israel on this by saying all hell will be there to pay

while the ceasefire negotiations are happening. And we shouldn't forget that there was that initial back channel from Donald Trump to Netanyahu where he's like, look, dude, he's like, you do what you need to do. But by the time I take office, this shit needs to be over. So it could be very much that this is a back channel as well, trying to take credit for any eventual hostage incidents

ceasefire negotiation by telling the Israelis, look, I'm going to put this out there. I mean, part of why this is all so ridiculous, too, is that, you know, the Israelis, you know, at least the Netanyahu government, they long since have not cared a lot about these hostages. They don't even pretend anymore. I mean, that's part of what

feels sort of like quaint about this Trump message. I think it was sparked because a hostage was confirmed dead yesterday. There was a dual citizen hostage. So an American-Israeli hostage who was thought to be held captive was actually killed on October 7th is the news that came out. But yeah, I mean, that's what felt sort of like...

dissonant, like a throwback in this statement is that the Netanyahu government, they don't even pretend to care about the hostages anymore. You know, the faction, Yoav Galant, who also, in my opinion, is a monster and has been also indicted by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity,

He was in the faction that said, OK, we need to prioritize getting the hostages home. That is a significant—I don't know if it's a majority position, but that is a position that's held by a significant amount of the Israeli public. It's not that they care about Palestinians, but they were very interested in getting the hostages home. That path has been completely thwarted. At this point, it's undeniable that—you know, I'm not saying, like, Hamas has been great actors here or whatever, but the primary roadblock to securing some sort of hostage deal has been Netanyahu, and it really was—

That moment when Joe Biden goes out, gives that big speech, says, Israel has agreed to this hostage release deal. And now it's in Hamas's court for you guys to agree. And Hamas was basically like, OK. And then Israel was like, wait, actually, no, we don't like this deal anymore. And it's constantly throwing out poison pills and thwarting negotiations however they can. And at this point, they just don't even really pretend that that's going on. So now they're back at the ceasefire negotiation table. I don't know how realistic that

It is that there's going to be a deal struck at this point. But we're also at a point of such utter and complete devastation in Gaza. It's like, what more are you going to do? The number of deaths, the amount of rubble, the just sheer devastation. And obviously, he has parts of his coalition who are very, very open and upfront about they want to completely take over Gaza. They want to resettle Gaza. This is Ben-Gavir and Smotrich.

And Trump has put into his administration, you know, people like Mike Huckabee, who would be very amenable to that direction, who are more aligned with that faction, the most extreme faction of an already extreme government, than certainly with the U.S. of the world. So that's kind of the context for all of this. And, you know, speaking of ceasefires, there's also supposedly a ceasefire that was struck with, you know, the U.S.'s negotiating assistance.

between Israel and Hezbollah. But Israel has just continued to strike when and however and whenever they want to in the face of this purported ceasefire agreement. Even CNN is reporting on exactly this dynamic. Let's go ahead and take a listen to that.

I want to be very clear, though, Dana, that there have been continuous violations since the ceasefire took effect early Wednesday morning. CNN spoke to a U.N. peacekeeping source who says that Israel has violated that ceasefire about 100 times. But there are many people on both sides of this border who are desperately hoping that this doesn't escalate further and that the ceasefire prevails.

So CNN saying there that -- and by the way, this ceasefire agreement is days old. This is not like it's been in place for a month. And already they're reporting that there have been some hundred violations of the ceasefire agreement. Our own Ryan Grim asked the State Department spokesman

spokespeople what their response to was to this result. Can Israel just continue to fire with impunity in the face of this negotiated ceasefire deal? Let's take a listen to that response. A little bit more background on the side letter that the U.S. sent to Israel regarding the ceasefire arrangement with Hezbollah and Israel. What does it allow Israel to do? Look, I don't have anything more I can speak to about the ceasefire agreement, but I will say that

A lot of the reporting around the ceasefire agreement tends to treat as news that Israel

can exercise what ultimately is a right that every country has. Every country has the right to defend itself against terrorist attacks. Israel has that right. Lebanon has that right. Every country in the world has that right. The United States often characterizes Israeli attacks as defense. France says that Israel has violated the ceasefire 52 times at this point. But if they're just re-couched as Israel defending itself, is Israel allowed to continue to attack Israel?

Hezbollah, as long as it says that was self-defense, that was self-defense. Look, as I said in response to questions earlier, we have a mechanism that we have set up to look at these exact questions and to look at reports of ceasefire violations and to determine whether, in fact,

they were violations of the ceasefire, whether in fact if an incident was in some way justified because somebody had come under the threat of harm. And I'm not going to make those judgments from here before that group has the opportunity to work through these questions. That's why we set it up in the first place.

Right. They've got a mechanism, Sagar. I'm sure we'll hold our breath waiting for that conclusion and the accountability which will come on the other side of that assessment. Yeah, man. Not much of a surprise. This is part of what Donald Trump also will inherit and it's going to be a very tricky situation because...

On the one side, he's got a very pro-Israel coalition. I mean, he's got some of the very hawkish pro-Israel members who are all part of his national security apparatus who are very, you know, and even the Republican celebration I saw, I mean, it's online, granted, but certainly amongst a lot of the pro-Israel folks, they're like, we've been waiting for somebody to say something like

this. And it's like, okay, well, if an American Delta Force soldier gets killed in a hostage raid to free Israelis, we should be asking the question here and be like, was it worth it? How many American lives is it worth to free a bunch of Israeli hostages? And especially why can they accomplish what the IDF, which we're told is such a competent and incredible military, what are they supposed to do? The Israeli Air Force? I mean, what bombs could we drop on Gaza that would

compel a Hamas ceasefire or compel a Hamas release that the Israelis have not dropped. I mean, we've given them almost everything that we have. We don't even, we barely have any ammunition left ourselves, which is the irony of this entire situation. So we'll see. And I think he is set up for just as difficult as a task as Biden, if anything more difficult because he has to please the most pro-Israeli factions.

of the people he made promises to, and others. And all of that is against his goal, ultimately, of peace. Again, I still think his statement is trying to compel some sort of back channel of trying to achieve this ceasefire and pressure on the Israelis to wind down the conflict. Because at least we could say this for Trump. What is his always criticism of Israel? It's bad PR.

But he knows it's bad for him. You know, he doesn't want to deal with this. He really doesn't want to deal with a major war in the Middle East because he understands too, probably that he can get pulled into this very quickly, especially with some massive fire, you know, with Lebanon, with Syria now that's exploding. I mean, it's a goddamn mess. It hasn't been like this since 2014. So, you know, you really, this is the worst possible situation for an American president to want to walk into. He should be and wanting to do everything

to bring this to a close. And my hope is that this is part of that. Again, knowing him, he just wants to recreate the Reagan magic. Immediately when I saw that, I was like, this is a Reagan move. Now, can he pull off what Reagan did? I mean, that's a lot more difficult. The only thing that I would say in response to that, everything you said is correct, but the difference for Trump is that his entire coalition is pretty united behind a hawkish pro-Israel stance.

And part of what was difficult for Biden to navigate politically, which he did a very poor job of, is that Democrats overwhelmingly are not in favor of this hawkish, uniformly, unanimously pro-Israel stance. And Democratic donors are somewhat divided. Most of them are pretty pro-Israel. But then the base was really on board with first the ceasefire and then very strongly on board with embargoing weapons shipments.

And so there were, and obviously you had this very activist movement on college campus and other places from the left, which is somewhat in the Democratic Party coalition that he also had to contend with. You don't have that same push and pull within the Republican coalition. So for him to come out with an aggressive statement like this, like a few people, Dave Smith won't be happy about it, you won't be happy, like there'll be a few people, but by and large, overwhelmingly,

His coalition and his donors and his base are good with this. And so that pushes all in one direction, which is consistent, aggressive, whatever Israel wants, whatever Miriam wants, they're going to ultimately get. And of course, you see that in the personnel he picked for the weddings. You are not incorrect. But, and this is when there's a dog catches the tail element to this too.

Again, you want to see what the logical conclusion of this? It's Americans dying to free Israeli hostages. Maybe you think that's worth it. That's fine. You can exercise your right and your opinion. I don't think it's worth it, especially if it comes to actually active combat. Let's say that there is some major bombing and that invites further attacks on Americans, and then we end up into some tit for tat with Iran. Again, why? For what purpose? And

That is the reality which Donald Trump would have to confront. Now, I will have at least some faith that in the past he's been afraid of getting into those situations like pulling off or calling off the shoot down of that Iranian plane in response to shooting down an American aircraft.

unmanned spy plane, and in general has shown an aversion to getting embroiled into deep conflict. Now, he also can get dragged there very easily considering a lot of the people that he has behind him who will be advising in the interagency process and in terms of the options that will be presented to him. So we'll see. I mean, I do remember the very first, I think it was week one, maybe week two of the Trump administration, there was an American Navy SEAL who was killed in combat in Yemen

And that was a big deal here in Washington. And actually, that was kind of a formative incident as well for Trump, 'cause the raid had been previously approved by the Obama people, kind of, and then Trump came in and he was like, "Yeah, let's be hawkish, let's do it." And then he saw what a nightmare the entire operation was. This guy was killed.

helicopter crash, et cetera. I remember that being- But, I mean, you were very hawkish towards Iran, though. Yeah, but, I mean, at the end of the day, we didn't get into a war with Iran. He killed Qasem Soleimani, okay. Yeah, but they did retaliate and they, you know, struck our service members, a number of them sustained traumatic brain injuries. So it's not like-

You're right. We didn't end up in a war. But that's the gamble that he's willing to take. So, you know, this is not just bluster in the past. It's been backed up by, you know, hawkish actions vis-a-vis Iran in the region. Yeah, look, he and the people behind him are united Iraqis.

around like a confrontation and a hawkish policy towards Iran. Trump himself though, at least says he wants a deal. So, you know, I don't know, whatever you can take that to the bank. He's the one also, the only one who pulled out of the Iran deal and the status quo basically hasn't changed at all. He has said, we don't want any regime change and we're in a war with Iran. I think that's good. I hope that we stick to it. But what concerns me the most really is not Donald Trump. It's the interagency stuff. It's people like Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio and all these other people. When

I mean, if you think about it, there will be one voice in the Situation Room who is not all that hoggish on Iran, or at least previously. His name is J.D. Vance. He's the only sitting right there, the only person who spoke out against the Soleimani thing. But he was a private citizen. He wasn't an elected official, right? And didn't have to answer to the Miriam Adelson's and all of them of the world. Every single other person in the Situation Room, the generals and all these others, they've been itching. This is what they are. They love this.

the CENTCOM commanders, et cetera, you know, Pete Hagsath and all of them, he's very pro-Israel. So this is the one area where that's a major blind spot for any of their anti-war positioning. And as usual, you know, with ideology, big money, and all of that, it is the easiest way to embroil the United States into a major conflict. So watch out. But, you know, look, this was also a risk that any...

I can at least say this. If you voted for Trump and you're upset about this, then you just weren't paying any attention. No, I think that's true. Let's be honest here. That's absolutely correct. Yeah, I mean, going clear-eyed into this, I'm like, this is going to be the most pro-Israel administration in American history. Didn't love it, but you know, you had a wave of checks and balances. But anybody who was telling you that it was going to be opposite, then honestly, you got to take it for a ride. Yeah, don't believe those people ever again, certainly. This is it.

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Three World Central Kitchen workers have been killed after a car belonging to the World Central Kitchen was targeted by an Israeli drone in Gaza's Khan Yunis city. You may recall this is not the first time that Israel has targeted World Central Kitchen aid workers. This is Jose Andres' outfit. You will also recall that the first time this happened, there was a large

uproar here in D.C. and across the country, I mean, really around the globe. But, you know, it was the first time that people in D.C. were like, oh, my God, someone I know is actually connected to the slaughter. And so there was a significant amount of

concern and outrage. But ultimately, was there accountability? Of course not. And so this time when this, you know, these aid workers, these Palestinian aid workers, including World Central Kitchen workers, are struck and killed, you barely hear anything about it. And, you know, it's the perfect story of the way that lack of accountability breeds impunity. And it's the same story with the, you know, repeated violations of the ceasefire with Hezbollah.

They know they can do it. And Matt Miller will just get up there and be like, well, we have a mechanism and we'll get back to you. And they have the right to defend themselves, et cetera, et cetera. Like they know that's going to be the response. So they're going to do whatever the hell that they want. And it is not only World Central Kitchen workers that have been killed here. We can put the next piece up on the screen.

We also have Save the Children aid workers who say they are devastated in an outrage at the killing of a Save the Children staff member in an Israeli airstrike in Gaza. Our second colleague killed in Gaza. We contemn this attack in the strongest terms and demand an investigation. You know, the killing of aid workers, of medical professionals, of professors.

of all types of people. Journalists have been some of the largest targets in terms of the Gaza Strip. This has been ongoing and it continues to be ongoing because, again, the U.S. has allowed them to act with complete impunity and with zero accountability. At the same time, Al Jazeera has a deeply disturbing report

about the way that Israel is using these quadcopters. And this had been rumored for a long time, but not fully confirmed, that they use these quadcopters. They play sounds of crying babies or mothers calling for help to lure people out of their tents or their shelters. And then once they are lured out, looking for this desperate baby, desperate mom to try to help,

Then they shoot and kill them. Let's take a listen to a little of this report from Al Jazeera. In mid-April, we were informed that Israeli quadcopters were emitting bizarre sounds, including baby sounds or women screaming. I went personally to Nusayrat and I interviewed several Palestinians separately, and the testimonies were almost identical. Quadcopters were for two

consecutive nights on the 14th and the 15th, I guess, of April. They were emitting baby sounds, playing sounds of screaming women. They played these sounds only to lure citizens out of their homes and to find someone to shoot. And this was confirmed by actually the reports that we followed up on at hospitals. There were cases of people getting injured by these quadcopters after

going out to figure out what was the sound to try to help. And then they go on to speak to a young man there who one of his family members had been killed by one of these quadcopters. And, you know, this just very obviously flies in the face of the idea we're doing this targeted hunt for Hamas. They're trying to lure out whoever they can lure out with these quadcopters and then indiscriminately murdering them. And that is what our taxpayer dollars are going to fund. So congratulations, everyone.

Last piece, Sagar, that I wanted to get to here, which I don't even know what to say about this. Put this up on the screen. So Biden, over the Thanksgiving holiday, I think this was actually on Black Friday. Apparently, I think this was maybe the day before he informed Hunter he was going to be pardoning him. You see Hunter there in the picture. But if you look at that book that he's holding as he comes out of the bookstore,

That is The Hundred Years War on Palestine, a fantastic book digging into the consistent violent oppression of Palestinians written by renowned academic Rashid Khalidi. And now, after more than a year of facilitating this genocide, he thought maybe he'd read about what's going on in the region. I mean, what do you like?

What do you even say to this? I don't know. It's like struggle session-esque. I guess he wants to know where he fits in the hundred years war on Palestine, like what role he's playing in the renewed, aggressive Palestinian violent oppression. I would just put it in terms of the most Biden move of all time. Also, that was on Nantucket, just so people know. Of course. It makes it even more perfect. In case you weren't aware, it is a great bookstore, though. We'll say that. There is something, I'm not sure I can totally distill it, but it's so perfect about...

a liberal, quote unquote, who's been facilitating genocide for a year, but is gonna read this book and signal that he feels bad about what's going on there. - I think that's basically what he's doing. - And on Nantucket. All of that is too perfect. - On Nantucket, the President of the United States, it's very much like liberal guilt and like, let me at least try to understand what the other side is. It's actually quite classic.

Yeah, and it's like doing the reading after the fact, too. Yeah, there's certainly, I mean, look, let's also do the alternative, which he has no idea what he's doing. He just picked it up. Oh, Palestine, okay. You know what I'm saying? I'm interested in that. Or like, yeah, like, I'm involved. Or Hunter or somebody like that. That's probably the most likely outcome.

come to be honest that's somebody his granddaughter or his great-granddaughter sorry his great-granddaughter something like that is the person who I mean he's so cooked there's no way he can like fully yeah exactly comprehend a book he's at the point in his life where somebody's got to read to him like at a nursing home like that's

kind of what we're looking at. Even a lot of these interviews and things that we're looking at, they're crazy. You know, he's in Angola right now. He's in Africa. Or I think he's either there right now or he's on his way. There's no plans to do a press conference, nothing. I mean, this is, it never happens in a foreign trip. The only time a United States president travels abroad and doesn't do a press conference is when they go to like China where they don't have a press. And that's at the request of the Chinese government, not because of the U.S. government.

Angola and all that, they want to do a press conference. They want to publicize that an American president is finally visiting Africa. And he's like, no, I can't do it. It's crazy. Well, I think last time he did a foreign press conference, didn't he like wander into the rainforest? Yeah, that's exactly what happened. Yeah, thank you. I was gone for that. You know. It didn't work out so well. He was like drifting off into the Amazon rainforest.

I was like, dude, what's going to happen? Ask Teddy Roosevelt. He's the last president to drift off in the Amazon rainforest. Didn't work out for him. It's a good way for former presidents to end their life, just to wander off into the wilderness. It does appear that that rainforest trip, unfortunately, is what killed Roosevelt. The malaria and all that. They said he never recovered from it. Wow. There you go. This is it.

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At the same time, there's been some amazing media reactions to the Hunter Biden pardon. First is The View, which we can always count on for cutting edge analysis. Here, Whoopi Goldberg says it was never a lie from President Biden that he had completely ruled out a pardon for his son. Let's take a listen.

it as a parent. I understand why he would do it. But I wanted to understand why lie about it for so long. I'd stop calling it a lie. Okay, why repeatedly say you're not going to and you do? And secondarily, for the part of this country, half of it that doesn't support Biden, doesn't know him personally, doesn't get to have phone calls, and they're just looking at a system that seems like

It only benefits the people who are in power. What precedent does that set? Well, here's what it sets. It's a precedent for all of us to open our eyes because we've elected someone who is in a similar situation, who didn't have a drug problem, who knew what he was doing, who clearly stood and said, I can do this. And he did it. So I think for many, many reasons,

This is very different than any other situation that we have ever dealt with. It's actually not. You know, she is correct in one way. It is very different. It is the most sweeping presidential pardon in American history. So we have that. It is even more of a sweeping pardon than the pardon that Gerald Ford delivered President Nixon for any and all crimes committed while

He's president of the United States. This one takes the cake because it's a 10 year period of 2014 to today. Ironically also included in the pardon was the date of December 1st, even though it was issued on November 30th or something like that. And so, maybe it was December 2nd instead of December 1st. And so Hunter, when it was issued, actually had several hours to continue committing a few more crimes. So can you imagine the crack binge that happened in that house?

- God bless. - I mean, that would've been an awesome-- - Do your thing, Hunter. - It probably was an awesome time. You know, there's also, people are now saying, because Hunter no longer can invoke the Fifth Amendment because of fear of prosecution, he should have no fear of going on the Joe Rogan experience or testifying before Congress. Now is actually the time to tell us, Hunter, what happened with Burisma and with all of this. So in one sense, Whoopi is correct. This is a very different situation. - The part of that I'm most subjected to is when she was like, "Don't call it a lie." - Yeah, I know.

Come on, lady. Like, you know, my thing with this is I find it outrageous that so many liberal politicians and pundits, so many of them have been outraged by this. And it's been, you know, the worst thing that the most condemnation that they've had for Joe Biden is over this pardon of Hunter. And it's like, have you watched what this man has been up to his entire image? Have you watched this?

The way that he has facilitated this slaughter in Gaza, and yet your undies are in a bunch over Hunter Biden? Like, you know, spare me at this point. So that was the sort of tease us up for the next thought that we have here. There were a couple of these on CNN where you have Eli Honig and then later on you had Manu Raju who were like, this is going to tarnish Joe Biden's legacy. It's like,

his legacy of genocide and greasing the skids back to Donald Trump, like, and his legacy of being so arrogant and narcissistic that he was happy to allow his party to lose and was happy, apparently, to stay in the race even when he was being told he was going to lose 400 electoral college votes to Donald Trump. Like, what legacy are we talking about here? In any case, here is Ellie Honig making that point.

This is as broad as a pardon can possibly be. Ordinarily, a pardon will specify a certain case, and that happened here. It says, I hereby pardon Hunter Biden on the gun case in Delaware and on the tax case in California. But what's different about this one is it also says this is a full and unconditional pardon

for all conduct going back to January 1 of 2014, which means Hunter Biden cannot be federally prosecuted for anything going back to 2014 and really before then, because before then is going to be precluded by the statute of limitations. And as you said before, the only historical precedent, the best historical precedent for this is the pardon of Richard Nixon by Gerald Ford, which has similar language. But what I think is not disputable is that this is a historic act

of political nepotism. This is the granting of a pardon by the president to his son. Joe Biden even says, if you really parse his statement, he acknowledges that a substantial part of this is because Hunter Biden is his son. And that will land Joe Biden on a historic list that he probably doesn't wanna be a part of, along with Bill Clinton, who pardoned his half brother, Roger Clinton, along with Donald Trump, who pardoned Charles Kushner, who is the father of his own son-in-law, Jared Kushner. So

I'm sure Joe Biden understands the historic implications of what he's done and now he's earned his way onto that list. So there you go. And I mean, Nate Silver, he does a silver thing on silver thing, a similar thing. Put this up on the screen. I don't even have jet lag as an excuse here, guys. Put this up on the screen.

I'm having like sympathetic jet lag, I guess. I discussed here how I voted for Harris despite feeling like Democrats indulge in a lot of bad behavior that voters were rational to publish. After the White House lying about the Hunter pardon, I'm not sure how much more I can tolerate. And look,

totally get people objecting to the Hunter pardon. Personally, I don't really care one way or another. What I am disgusted by is Joe Biden being perfectly happy to violate the norms when it serves himself and his family, but not when, say, it might deliver a $15 minimum wage to workers or in any other way he could violate those norms in this, you know, last lame duck days. But he chooses to only use it to benefit himself. That's my, you know,

really significant objection here. But it's just funny from Nate because, I mean, number one, as others have pointed out, like Trump,

really aggressively abused this pardon powers with Kushner and Roger Stone and Steve Bannon, Dinesh D'Souza, like anyone who was sympathetic to him whatsoever, or even some people who apparently like paid to get their cases in front of Trump. He just was happy to dole him out. So if this is your line with Joe Biden, like where was all that concern with Trump, but also

Joe Biden has done so much worse during his administration, and Gaza being the obvious example. But I would also put, Sagar, Ukraine and thwarting that peace deal and allowing that slaughter to go on. And so that's where the D.C. morality just makes no sense to me whatsoever, that this would be the reason why you think his legacy would be tarnished. There are 85 other vastly more important mortal failings

of Joe Biden before you even start to talk about this one. On an objective basis, politically, massive failure. Again, judge him by his own rhetoric. He ran to defeat Donald Trump forever. The dark Brandon meme. That's right. He was not successful in that.

He was a narcissist all the way through. The world is on fire. Arguably, the destruction of the quote-unquote rules-based international order really was struck under Joseph R. Biden. No doubt about it. I mean, I read a lot of history, so I'm used to thinking about things at like a 100,000-foot level, like a strategy-

wise. When you write the historical period of the Joe Biden presidency, what will they point to? The invasion of Ukraine, the fall withdrawal of Afghanistan, even though I supported it. I mean, it's very clear that it was executed in such a way that it turned the American public away. The Israeli war and the conflagration and explosion continuation of American interventionism in the Middle East. And then you have that

with the political failure of this president on top of the economic trends are arguably worse in this country at any time since 2008, which sounds crazy to say if you talk to an economist, but we're going to talk about a little bit in our show about home prices and about inflation. I mean, the level of domestic consternation

has really no precedent since the 2008 period and really more analogous to the early 1900s. So Biden will go down in history like people who you barely think about, you know, from the early 1900s. Yeah. Like Calvin Coolidge, you know, Silent Cal. People don't really think, libertarians like him, that's about it. You know, he's mostly a footnote. He'll be one of those folks. I think he'll be, I mean, uh,

Not even as positive as Jimmy Carter, because at least with Carter, people feel like, well, he's a good guy. Right. You know, he redeemed himself because of his lifelong service. And they're also saying, I mean, you know, Camp David Accord. Like there are things you can point to during the Carter administration. I think Biden has a much worse legacy ultimately than Jimmy Carter does.

And in a sense, it's a shame because there are things he did that were a break with the neoliberal order that were important. The continuation of the China tariff policy, important. The implementation of industrial policy in a way that we haven't seen in decades in this country, important. The aggressive, the antitrust, the sort of repositioning and reinvigoration of antitrust policy, very important. Most pro-labor president in my lifetime. No one's gonna remember any of that.

because of how overwhelming the foreign policy devastating failures were. You're right, Sagar, about he has done more destruction to the quote-unquote rules-based order than anyone, I mean, than Donald Trump could have ever dreamed because he's someone who claimed to believe in this and to uphold it.

And so he was in a vastly more significant position to be able to completely undermine it. And that's exactly what he did. Well, on institutions and rule of law as well, it will be fine. People will always write about the Trump lawfare and about what happened to him. But now as part of that will be that Joe Biden, in his pardon of his son, used the same rhetoric and justification that Donald Trump will to escape his own charges and problems. So look, you can't

blame Americans for saying you all are full of shit and for just pressing the red button. Ultimately, that was the vote for Donald Trump. And honestly, America was more red-pilled even than I thought that they were in terms of they're like, I don't want to hear this democracy shit. I don't want to hear any of this anymore. I can't deal with this. And there's something just so nauseating about this.

about Biden and the preening and the entire Kamala Harris campaign that they just said, I'm done. You know, I'm willing to take, I'm willing to take a chance, you know, roll the dice, United 93, whatever metaphor that you want to have here. And so that is one that will be the ultimate legacy of Joseph R. Biden.

I honestly think he's a much worse president than Obama. I think, you know, I mean, second only to George W. Bush. And before Gaza, on economics, I was one of the people out there making the case Joe Biden is better than Barack Obama on economics. But you cannot look at the totality of this administration and say that he is, you know, better in any significant respect at this point. This is it.

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We have gotten far afield, but I have to get to this next piece because I demanded that it be in the show so that I could gloat a little bit about it. Let's put this up on the screen. Dinesh D'Souza, who was himself. He was pardoned. Pardoned. For straw donations. By Donald Trump.

He put out his 2000 Mules documentary to great fanfare within MAGA world. He was hosted at Mar-a-Lago for a film screening. It might have even been the premiere sort of down there. He is now himself admitting

That the central part of this film, which I watched, and you guys might remember I did a monologue about it saying how this was all total and complete bullshit. The central part of this film, he is now admitting completely false, completely wrong, apologizing to one of the people that he smeared as being one of these purported quote unquote mules. So let me read you this from Rolling Stone. They say MAGA filmmaker Dinesh D'Souza issued a statement on Sunday admitting that

His most notorious project, the 2020 election conspiracy film 2000 Mules, was produced, quote, on the basis of inaccurate information provided to me and my team. Includes an apology to a man named Mark Andrews, a Georgia man who sued Dinesh D'Souza and Salem Media Group, who were responsible for putting out the film, which, by the way, they ceased distribution of in the wake of these lawsuits and revelations that the film was told and complete bullshit.

Profit this film certainly did, though, politically and financially. They say it grossed over $10 million in revenue. As I mentioned, they had a private screening for it at Mar-a-Lago, helped make Dinesh D'Souza even more influential. He writes in part, I apologize to Mr. Andrews.

I make this apology not under the terms of a settlement, agreement, or other duress, but because it is the right thing to do, given what we have now learned. While I do not believe Mr. Andrews was ever identified by the film or book, I am sorry for any harm he believes he and his family have suffered as a result of 2000 mules. DeSouza claims he had no idea the data provided by True the Vote was faulty at the time the film was released. Quote, True the Vote provided my team with ballot dropbox surveillance footage that had been obtained through open records request

And listen.

As someone who did a monologue right at the time. Yeah, it was obvious at that time. At the time that this was all total bunk and bullshit. This particular man, Mark Andrews, who he's apologizing to, who had been portrayed as one of these mules, he just was dropping off the ballots for himself and his family, which is a perfectly reasonable and legal activity. So, you know, it's preposterous to imagine

Yeah.

If anything, there's been a healing effect on Stop the Steal since Trump's victory where we can just admit all of these things now out loud and just be like, okay. And the Republican base has been satiated enough from Trump's victory in 2024 that they no longer have to cling. Suddenly the elections are free and fair now that Donald Trump's won. Well, you know, that's how it goes for them. Let's put this on the screen from Anne. Love Anne. When Anne's right, she's right. Anne is the goat. You can at least say this. She is a consistent woman.

And she says, please think back to all the people who told you to watch Dinesh's 2000 Mules and never trust them again. Well, that would include the incoming president of the United States, I believe. Well, Ann and Trump are beefing. Don't forget. Ann has always called him. She's called him out. They've had a fraught relationship for a long time. So she accused him of abandoning what he ran on in 2016. So that's why I think Ann is the GOAT.

So many charlatans and grifters. And the really sad thing is that he will pay zero price in terms of his reputation. I mean, this is pretty bad. I will say that. That's bad. People will go, right? Whatever his next little project is, they'll eat it right up. So I think you're right. But I also think that there was this main—I mean, I encounter this with the normal Republicans.

You know, every once in a while, if you're in an Uber or something, they'll just be like, so, do you really think the election wasn't stolen? And they'll ask about 2,000 mules or anything. If you calmly discuss, you know, with them, I think they'll, usually they'll come around to it and be like, okay, yeah, that actually sounds

reasonable. But I think outside of the hardcore, you know, this stuff will not have as much, I think at least as a result of things like this, it will not have as much currency in the future. Trump is also extraordinarily unique. His inability to, you know, claim things that are stolen to inspire his following. Look at that. Who's that guy who ran in Wisconsin?

Is that his name? Eric Hovde. He tried to play footsie with Stop the Steal. He just gave up. He was like, it's not working. You know, in terms of, I think it was his election against Tammy Baldwin and he was claiming something or whatever. It didn't land at,

Same with all of the other Republicans who lost in the swing states. I just think we're in a place where people's trust in institutions has been understandably obliterated. Yeah, it's zero. And I think this is happening now on the liberal side as well, which is why I'm not like...

even though MSNBC is sort of being destroyed, why I'm not that hopeful that what grows in the rubble is going to be better. Because when people's trust in institutions has been destroyed, it makes it very easy for charlatans like Dinesh D'Souza to come in and say, well, I'm telling you the truth that no one else wants you to hear. And if it's adversarial to the mainstream media or if the mainstream media is like attacking you over it, you use that.

as proof of your valor and your positioning as a truth teller. And there's, I mean, there's so many people who have profited in exactly this way. Like the more shameless you're willing to be, the more successful you're going to be. And, you know, I, it's Dinesh's next thing is not going to be about the last conspiracy. It's going to be about whatever the next

conspiracy is. And I think, again, I don't think that this will damage his credibility at all. And I think most of the people who watched 2000 Mules and believed it and took it seriously are not even going to see this apology and realize that they've been taken for a ride. So, you know, that's

It creates a real vulnerability. And this is not to defend the quote unquote institutions like they deserve the low level of trust that they have. They've earned it like that's their own fault. But then, you know, there are so many charlatans who come in and fill the void and to say that claim that they're telling you some secret truth that's being hidden from you. It's just it's becomes very easy to manipulate people and get this sort of like herd mentality going. Yeah. Well, I still think the apology is a good first step.

Well, it's better than no apology, I guess, now that it doesn't really matter, but whatever. Let's get to the tarot, shall we? This is it.

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There's been a real change in consumer behavior as a result of Black Friday and a potential preview of what's to come with some of the tariffs. Let's put this on the screen, for example. Just wanted to talk about this. It's called shoppers fight back as the retailers crack down on returns. So as retailers are trying to basically increase prices and increase their margins, they have been putting a lot of stuff in the

fine print about charging for returns and about making it more difficult to actually achieve the return policy, which most people are used to. And what we have seen is the rise of the informed consumer. And I actually think inflation

has prompted a lot of people to read Fine Print, actually look at some of the stuff that they're buying, their ability to return, and also about the way that they're really getting screwed by a lot of these retailers. So what they point to inside of this article is basically about a lot of people who are really going down inside the Fine Print for returns and others and are stopping buying from those who are trying to crack down.

Now, in some sense, I am sympathetic. There are people out there who will buy like 10 items with the intention to return nine. But what we have seen as well is that this is largely a result not necessarily of the retailers, but it's largely a result of consumers who continually feel like they're getting ripped off because of increasing prices.

And that those increasing prices, that informed consumer has changed dramatically. Like in terms of the grocery store, there's been a reported massive increase in the number of people who do couponing. Like, you know, people make fun of extreme couponing. But like most people in the lower inflation times, they weren't really paying attention. But there's been a lot of increase in that, in bargain hunting, in the rise of discount, you know, grocery store and all that. All that is a bad thing.

by the way, because it means that people are spending too much money. But I thought it was an interesting development. And since it pairs well with what we're about to get to with tariffs. Yeah. My mom was such an aggressive couponer when I was a kid. Really? That's a good thing. She had her whole binder when we'd go into the grocery store. But with regard to this story, there's kind of an arms race going on between the retailers and the shoppers, effectively. And this is also just

Online shopping is fully mature now and shoppers are fully mature and fully schooled in the best ways of going about online shopping. So especially if you're shopping for clothes and you're not sure what size you are, like one thing people do is called bracketing is they'll buy like size up the size they think they are and size down. And then they'll just return so that they can try them on at home and then just return whichever pieces don't fit, which seems to be entirely reasonable behavior.

honestly, because if you're not gonna be in the store, then that's a good way to figure out what size you actually want. And as long as you're doing it kind of in good faith, I don't see that as like, you know, abusive or nefarious behavior. But the next part of this arms race

is apparently they're now developing AI to give you a sort of like social trust score when it comes to your return behavior. So if you're a frequent returner, they're going to start charging you more for shipping and you more for returns, whereas someone else who has a different social trust return score doesn't get charged in that way. And so, you know, I mean, this is the way that AI works.

Rather than what we would like to see, which is when new technology comes online, which has the potential to profoundly transform the way humanity behaves and that it would be used in service of humanity. But instead, frequently what we see, because it's used solely for profit, is companies almost weaponizing it against people. We see this with the spyware.

pricing as well, similar thing where it's like, oh, you can afford this. So I'm going to gouge you specifically. I'm going to use a deal with you to lure you in because I know your vulnerabilities. Once you're in the store, then you're going to buy other stuff. And so this is a somewhat dystopian use of AI. I think that's being deployed here. And one more way that everything we do, all of our behavior is just being tracked and weaponized against us.

But the other piece I think that's really important is that retailers are already signaling that they are going, whether they have increased costs or not, they're going to use the excuse of any tariffs that Trump puts into place to jack up prices. And they know they can get away with it because they did the same thing during COVID. Those of us like you and I who were saying, hey, you know,

one part of this inflation we're seeing is not just the cost. It is a greedflation where retail, where any sort of company sees they can get away with hiking prices. And so they're just doing it aggressively way beyond their costs. And they're bragging about it on earnings calls, by the way. So this is not theoretical.

They're already saying basically we're going to do the same thing this time around. Let's put this up on the screen from The Wall Street Journal. You also have a lot of retailers who are basically like using the threat of tariffs to get people to buy stuff now. There's this company called Finally Home Furnishings. They put on their Facebook, they say pre-tariff sale. This is not a drill.

urging customers to order now before prices double. That's an online furniture retailer. They say it's one of many businesses urging customers to buy now before President-elect Trump's

Proposed tariffs potentially raise costs and prices. Others banging the tariff drum include companies selling outdoor gear, stickers, beauty products, and more. Companies are pouncing in a moment when fear and uncertainty are on the rise. And consumer spending is showing signs of weakness. Best Buy warned of software demand. Kohl's and Target report lower apparel sales in the latest quarter. Another example here, beauty brand Jolie Skin urged customers via email to, quote, lock in our current prices before potential tariffs push further.

them higher. And apparently this is also kind of taken off online. There's a lot of like TikTok discourse about this. We're about to get to that. But just listen to this dishonesty. The very same, this is finally home furnishings. The very same items you are seeing now will double the price once the tariffs kick in. Double the price. Interesting. I thought it was a 25% tariff.

So even if you do assume that all of the cost gets passed on to the consumer, where do the extra 75% go? So everyone should just get ready that there will be a lot of chicanery that is happening here. But also, this is a perfect preview into why we need tariffs in the first place. What exactly is final home furnishings or Wayfair or any of these other places that you buy? It's

cheap cardboard shit from China. If you look, continue, you can see in sporting goods and they talk about fishing rods, pieces of metal, all these other things, which we don't make here. Not even here. We don't even make it in the Northern hemisphere or in an allied nation like Vietnam. Target, Kohl's, where do you think all that shit's coming from? Not America, not Mexico, same thing. It's all from China. At best, it's from Vietnam.

And so what you can see inside of this is exactly the problem with cheap consumer goods. It's all crap. It just breeds more consumption. A lot of it is cheap that just is recycled and you just keep going back and buying new stuff every one or two years. I mean, look, I understand like it is a bedrock of the American experience. This is a little bit preachy, so sorry. But this is the fundamental problem with our economy.

So if you look inside of this, you can see clearly that they are prepped and they are ready to make sure that they will use the tariffs as an excuse. I think I said yesterday that the funniest possible outcome will be major tariffs and then price controls from Donald Trump. But honestly, though, anybody who is artificially increasing prices because of tariffs which are imposed for national security purposes, I would personally say that is an act of treason.

But, you know, we'll see how the government decides to treat them because I don't think it's right, especially if we're talking about, I mean, like Best Buy. Best Buy says, oh, the demand for consumer electronics is going to go down. It's like, okay, well, let's think about what this race for consumer electronics has happened. We've had a 1,000% decrease in the price of a television. Is your life better off? Are you good for that? You know, has that been a great outcome for America? I don't think so. You know, it's like we got to, we actually, at the very least, I hope it prompts like a real honest conversation.

about what all this stuff is, about why do we need all this new stuff on Black Friday anyways? Like, what is exactly all of it doing? And at the very least, like, I think it should show people as well the same greedflation problems that we had during COVID, that this is all fake. I mean, why is it? What's a Chipotle bowl cost these days? 15 bucks?

You know, you really want me to believe 100% increase has happened? When I was in college, I think it was $8 for a thing. So 100% increase over the last 10 years. Yeah, I'm not buying it. You know, and most people understand that. They know. You're speaking to something that is really important and quite deep, which is we have had a...

social contract that has been built around consumption. That is the American Empire. Basically, and I mean this goes back even to the conception of like what a monopoly is which you know Bork sort of famously changed to just like you know if prices aren't going up for consumers it's not a monopoly and the entire benefit of a company was effectively assessed by how cheap can the prices possibly be and

And as labor protections were stripped away and the minimum wage hasn't even come close to keeping up with inflation, and the core elements of a stable middle-class lifestyle

namely, house education and healthcare, have skyrocketed and skyrocketed. But yeah, it's easier to get a lot of cheap consumer goods. And I mean, that really is the sort of foundation of the neoliberal era social contract. Now, you know, I think across the board tariffs is crazy. I think certain things, it doesn't make any sense to make here. And you are just driving up prices for really no good reason. But

If you are actually thinking about shifting the American public away from seeing themselves not as citizens, not as family members, but first and foremost as consumers, which is what people have been trained to do, that is actually like a –

sort of revolutionary shift in the American mindset. Now, do I think that people are prepared for that? Do I think that this is going to be backed by any sort of like other policy that can help us realize some other national or personal identity? No, I think it's mostly just going to amount to people being pissed off that prices are a lot higher than they used to be. Oh, and by the way, you haven't done anything to deal with my housing costs.

You haven't done anything to deal with my healthcare costs. You haven't done anything to deal with my education costs. So it's just like pain with nothing to balance it out on the other side. But if you had that broader program, that would be something that I would be interested in. Yeah, it'd be amazing. Look, I know I've been talking a lot about how great Japan is, but you know what they do in Japan? They buy quality goods. They also, you know, when you buy clothing, there's an entire neighborhood called Shimotikazawa, which is just...

vintage clothing. I mean, I know thrifting is becoming popular and all that stuff here, but it is amazing just being in a country where things are made well and they are built to last. Their bullet trains are from the 90s. When people are respectful and they don't trash the train and there's not much a crime and the stuff is actually well-made and good, turns out you can use that shit for 30 years and it doesn't break. It was a shocking transformative experience for me.

me, to be in a first world country which is not built on the bedrock of cheap bullshit and consumption. It's amazing to see it for what it actually is. I mean, the Chinese have been very concerted in saying we don't want to be just a consumption economy the way that the US is. Yeah, that's what they do. They've banned it. They're fashion influencers. They're like, no, we don't allow this. A lot of the oligarchs and all these other people, they have to leave the country to practice their conspicuous consumption. They can't do it back in China. And they can't brag about it on WeChat.

you know, or whatever. But anyways, this, look, as you said, do I think America is ready to sacrifice its obsession with credit card debt and with target Black Friday sales? Absolutely not. But the important part, and we can skip the TikTok influence. We're going to show you a video just of this lady who's like, you got to stock up before the Trump terror, just to show you this is like paraded the culture. But the problem is you can't just raise prices and then not deal with the

you know, core issues of like housing, wages, healthcare, education. And let's go ahead and transition to this next part because-

And while certain prices, like consumer electronics, perfect example, the prices continue to go down and down and down. And this is sort of like the deal that's been offered to people is you can have a bunch of stuff like that, but you cannot own a home. And let's put this up on the screen. This is Washington Post has new, really extraordinary numbers about what's going on in the housing market. So first of all, the share of homes that are bought with all cash, now a third, a

third of the market. And if you look, they had a map in here too. If you look at the map, there are certain places where it's like a majority of the home purchases are all cash. Like if you're a young person with, you know, a decent career, college educated, whatever, professional white collar, and you are trying to buy a home, like who's going to have $600,000 just sitting in the bank? I just looked at my neighborhood, 45% all cash.

And this is a place where you can't even buy anything for less than like $800,000. That's crazy. Who has $1.2 million sitting around? I mean, look, in reality, the way this stuff usually works is they don't have $1.2 million, but they have a huge amount of stock assets and they borrow against that or whatever and use margin loan. This is all like stuff that very, very rich people do all the time. But the point is, is that they have an extraordinarily, extraordinary net worth to draw upon.

And what's actually crazier about the cash is not that. It's the effect that it has had on the average...

home buyer in the United States. So we have this graph that's included here, which is very important. So in 2007, the average home buyer in the United States was 39 years old. So by 2011, after the new housing regs kick in, the average home price takes up to 45. Things start to stabilize around then and they start to climb. 2020, right before the pandemic, it hits a record of 47.

But then by 2022, after the massive increase in home prices, it jumps from 45 to 53. And in 2024, the average home buyer in the United States is now 56 years old.

What's even more shocking about that, and this is a primary residence, by the way, primary residence, is that the average home buyer who is a first-time buyer has now risen to 38 years old. Wow. That's from 35 just last year. So an aggregate increase of three years. Oh, my God. That is three years of delayed life in just three. Now, consider that this is, again, primary residences. So you have boomers here amassing huge...

huge amounts of cash, using that cash to be able to put all cash offers on houses, meaning anybody who's got a mortgage, why would anybody even look at you, right? Somebody can just send me a wire transfer, easy, right? I'm buying the house. But then the other problem with this, as we see already, is that millennial wealth has actually increased over the last few years, and it's from people who are able to buy homes. Now,

What we see, though, inside of that is that while some of those people were able to buy it of their own accord, many of them were helped by their parents. That's great. I think there's nothing wrong with that. But what it does mean is that if you're not lucky enough to have and to come from some generational wealth, you're screwed. And so when we're in an age of an average age of 56 years old, that is late stage republic shit. 56 years old. If you're 56, you're three years away from being able to withdraw from your freaking Roth IRA.

Hooray! That's like, you know, when you're 38, I mean, the average 38-year-old in the United States has like two children and, you know, is married. Like, that's well into life. Maybe like a 10-year-old or a 12-year-old or something like that. You're renting that entire time and amassing...

zero equity, and then now with a mortgage rate around 7%. I mean, this is the most stark stat that I've seen in a long time. When I read it, I honestly couldn't believe it. I go, 56 years old. Your life is mostly over at 56 years old when you're the average home buyer. That stat should be reversed. It should be 30 years old, something like that for the average first-time buyer. And then, look, there are so many different policies and

different areas. But this, by the way, will be a major test for the Trump administration because if this does increase, you are going to see some crazy shit happen in four years. I just do not think that this is sustainable. We've had an exponential increase in the average age for the home buyer in the average age for the first time. And if you keep things this accessible, if you think about that 35%

old and you know, now it's currently the 38, they're going to be like in their mid forties at the end of the Trump administration. And they're like, okay, I'm still not being able to afford a house. What, what are we doing here? You know, I'm 10 years away from retirement or at least retirement age, you know, allegedly that's crazy. Yeah. This is where the abundance agenda people have a point is like you, because you need a variety of solutions. You need, you do need a massive surge in building and you know, a surge of housing into the market. Um,

You need the government to be involved in that because oftentimes, you know, the housing units that are built are not geared towards affordability or even, you know, first-time homebuyers. So you need government involved in that, potentially also something like what Kamala was proposing, assistance with that down payment for first-time homebuyers because that also is a real stumbling block for a lot of people. And you've got to get permanent capital out of these markets. Like, it needs to go to human beings first.

first. And that's not the only thing that's going on here, but the dramatic introduction of permanent capital into these markets where they're buying up entire trailer parks, they're buying up entire neighborhoods and pushing out regular homeowners and then renting them back to them. That also has to be dealt with. And then you've got the rental side of this too, with the collusion that has significantly raised

rental prices that, you know, continues to basically rob people. That's got to be dealt with as well. So there's a lot that needs to be done. But, you know, just I think we have one more graphic we can show you guys to show the increase over time of homes bought all cash. And you can see in every single market that they list here over time, more and more and more homes

of the sales are all cash. So number one, Naples, Florida. Now 60%, 60% of that market is all cash. If you don't have the money sitting in your bank account or able to obtain with a loan against your stock market holdings or whatever for mom and dad, four, get about it, just crazy. Look at Augusta, Georgia there. Went from 23% all cash just in 2018. We're not talking about decades ago, 2018. That feels like a blink of an eye ago.

To 42% now, you know, heading up towards a majority of the market. That's wild to see the way that that trend has unfolded. The whole thing is crazy. And if you look at all these places, unfortunately, these are a lot of places where a lot of Americans want to move to, right? Yeah, that's right. So new people who are coming in are having a lot of difficulty. I just checked Naples, Florida. You can have a house anywhere from, what, 4 million to 400,000.

but that's a lot of money no matter what. In Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, they have Winston, North Carolina there on the list. New Orleans they have there on the list. Miami, Jacksonville, Augusta. All of these are places with huge net in migration from across the country. It makes me also feel for some people. That property insurance situation down in Florida may be changing the game there. Certainly true. In Miami in particular. But even looking around this, here in Washington, D.C., in the Georgetown neighborhood, one of the richest neighborhoods here in Washington...

67% of houses are being bought with all cash. You can't even buy a house there for less than $2 million. I mean, that's just, that's outrageous to me.

to me. I honestly can't believe it. They'll even looking at it. Uh, some of the places that I've lived in the past, uh, here in Washington are looking around 46, 47, 50, 60%. You know, it's like, what, what are people supposed to, you might as well be, you, you better be a damn good defense contractor to be, uh, selling your soul for real. I mean, and then that's the other thing is the reality has major implications in terms of, uh,

This has major implications, too, for choices that people make. So everyone's always talking about, like, why don't the elite members of society pursue public service? It's like, well, debt is a huge part of it. I mean, I went to school with a lot of people who wanted to work in public service. And by and large, almost all of them are now corporate lawyers. And it's not because they want to. But, you know, you rack up $200,000 in debt, $250,000, $300,000, you don't have a lot of choice. They don't even want to do it, but they have to.

And that story goes on forever. This is the same case with a lot of people who attend Harvard or Yale. If you do so, you're looking at roughly $100,000 probably or so in student debt with no financial assistance. I think that's on the lower end. But-

Again, like it makes sense why you go to McKinsey. Same with doctors. This is a major conversation in medicine. Everyone's decrying the fall of the family practice of the people with a small practice and less patients. The reason why they go work at hospital?

Hospital guarantee you cut paycheck, 400 grand a year. Boom, I've got 300 grand in debt. I'm not taking a risk. I'm doing a small business. Maybe when I'm 50. You know, it's one of those where all of these things have cascading effects throughout the U.S. economy. And it's genuinely devastating.

for a lot of people out there. So if you were the 38-year-old and you still can't buy, I feel for you, man. That's devastating. I don't know how I would feel because you're the first generation to know with absolute certainty as an American citizen that you are worse off than your parents and even your grandparents who grew up in the boomer age. It's just crazy. Yeah, so true. Yeah, sad. This is it.

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proven fitness and nutrition plans. But you need to sign up now at body.com. That's B-O-D-I dot com. All right, let's get to the assisted dying conversation. This is very interesting, actually. And so there has been

a major consternation, I guess you could say. Debate. There's been a big debate. Over the quote-unquote assisted dying bill in the UK. This is kind of becoming a trend in Western Anglo nations that are not the United States. I'm sure it will come here soon at a federal level after our own experiments in Oregon and a few other places. So here we have an interview of the lawmaker who's explaining the bill, which did eventually pass through the UK Parliament. Let's take a listen.

I think for me, as a parliamentarian, we have a duty to fix things that aren't right. And if I look at the status quo in terms of the law around end of life choices for people, it's not fit for purpose. We've got people who are having harrowing, horrible deaths because even with, in some cases, the very best palliative care, their needs cannot be met.

We've also got people who are taking their own lives in really tragic circumstances. And we've got people who do have the choice of an assisted death, but only in a different country, so if they can afford to spend thousands of pounds travelling, and also doing so often prematurely while they're still well enough to do so.

So if we look at that situation, of which there is no real legal framework around it, that can't be right. And I think we have got a duty as legislators to fix that situation. I mean, I've consulted widely on the bill, whether that's legal professionals, whether that's medical people, palliative care experts, disability activists. But speaking to the British Medical Association and speaking to doctors with experience at the end of life, it's easier to define that period the closer someone is to death.

So there are people who would want the bill to go further and look at conditions without an actual diagnosis. And I understand their frustration that the bill doesn't do that. But actually, that six-month period is much easier for medical practitioners to know when someone is approaching those final few months.

So that's what's in the bill, according to her. Let's put this on the screen from the BBC in terms of what is actually, again, here's the requirements to be able to take part in the terminally ill end-of-life bill. It'd be the resident of England registered with a GP for 12 months. They must have the mental capacity to make the choice and deemed to have expressed a clear, settled, and informed wish free from coercion or pressure. They must be expected to die within six months. They must take two separate declarations, witnessed and signed on,

by them or a proxy on their behalf about their wish to die. Two independent doctors must be satisfied the person is eligible. There must be at least seven days between the doctor's assessments. And a high court judge must hear from any, at least one doctor and question the dying person and or anyone else they consider appropriate.

It has to be self-administered. It has to be self-administered. It's kind of wild. What's interesting about it...

is that it has, there's like kind of a horseshoe theory about people who opposed it. One of them was Jeremy Corbyn, the former leader of the Labor Party. Let's put this on the screen. For example, he says, "Thank you to all of those who have written to me about the terminally ill end-of-life bill. I want to take the time to explain why I'm voting against the legislation. I understand why people feel so passionately, et cetera, but choice at the end of life can only be meaningful in a system where everybody has access to the best palliative care possible.

But chronic underfunding has left many of those suffering from terminal illness without the support they need. Without addressing these deficiencies, the legislation puts the poorest, the elderly, and the disabled people at risk of serious neglect and discrimination. He says we urgently need to address the appalling state of palliative care by reversing years of austerity and privatization. This could be part of a broader imperative to build a national care service freely available to all of those people.

who need it. So that was from the left. From the right, we also had somebody like Nigel Farage from the Reform Party speak out against it. He says, "I voted against the assisted dying bill, not out of lack of compassion, but because I fear the law will widen in scope. If that happens, the right to die may become the obligation to die." And so that is, of course, like a slippery slope argument. I'll tell you this. I think I agree with Nigel.

And it's because of the results out of Canada, which we'll get to in a little bit. You know, on its face, and by the way, keep in mind, I'm not Christian. I know there's a whole, that's a whole other level of discourse around suicide, et cetera. So if you're looking for that, go to Ross Douthat or somebody else about civilization, Christianity, and the spiritual arguments against this. On a basic level, I think most people can understand and empathize with the idea of wanting to end your life about a quote-unquote six months. But the results out of Canada do show that there are cases. And I think the case should, it's not,

It's not a lot, probably 5%, but still there are some 5% of cases that in an expanded law and regime of assisted suicide do take place where they're poor or they're depressed. And I just think that any legal regime which allows for that is just deeply grotesque, especially in a system of what we have right now. So outside of the realm of quote-unquote assisted suicide, et cetera, even in a spiritual level, I do think opening this up, as Canada has done, is a very cautionary tale.

And this is kind of what Corbyn gets to as well. If you think about, even in a system like the UK, being poor in the UK, it's still worse than being rich. As people see, people who are rich in the UK still live longer, even when you have universal healthcare. Why? They have access to better healthcare.

It's like, well, when you have access to worse healthcare and then you have worse health outcomes, then you're more likely to take place and to get into a place where you need to, quote unquote, commit assisted suicide. So I think it really does show the starkest and the most grotesque parts

the underbelly of what the reality of the system looks like, even in a place with universal health care. And if something like this were to ever come to the United States, you can just imagine what the uptick, what it would be. It would be people on Medicaid. It'd be, you know, the uninsured. It would be predominantly the people with the worst health outcomes in the U.S. are all the poorest, you know, all rates of cancer, obesity, et cetera. So I just think it's a very, very cautionary.

tale. But I understand it's a very fraught conversation. Yeah, I hear all those arguments. I mean, the two major ones are the ones that Nigel Farage and Jeremy Corbyn offered. So Farage is basically like, it's a slippery slope. So he doesn't even object to the bill as it is, which just to reiterate, this bill in which will apply to England and Wales to start with, is just for terminally ill patients.

And it's patients who have had a you have six months or less to live diagnosis. There is a significantly onerous process that you have to get to in order to get this determination and allow you to avail yourself of the rights in this bill.

To me, that strikes the right balance. I guess I'm sort of like a centrist on this issue because what has made the Canada example fraught is they have opened it up to people who also have mental illness. And that to me is a bridge too far because within the UK, what you're talking about is people who are, they're already going to die. So it's not like they're choosing death. Death has already, nature has already chosen death for them. They're choosing how to do it on their own terms.

And I have personally known people who have struggled with this at the end of their life and do not want to suffer for months on end in excruciating pain and in miserable circumstances and want to have the right to die with dignity.

And I fully support that. So, you know, I don't really buy the slippery slope argument because, look, we're voting, they're voting on this particular law at this particular time. You know, the debate down the road, if someone tries to push it to the next level, then you can oppose that at that time. So I don't really buy the slippery slope argument. And then I, even though I, you know, I respect Jeremy Corbyn and his analysis here, I also think it's one of these situations where, you

With all policy, you kind of have to deal with the system as it exists currently. You're not going to get to some time where you have the socialist utopia and all of the social ills are solved. You have to deal with the reality as it exists. So while, of course, they should continue to fight for better palliative care, I guarantee they have better palliative care there than we do here, a better health care system in general than we do here, etc.,

So while you continue that fight, you also have to give people the right to have that dignity and choice at the end of their life. And I'll give you another, you know, an example here that maybe, Sagar, you'll respond to is there are a lot of lefties who argue like you cannot crack down on crime because we have all of these social ills.

And so it's like, OK, so we have to be able to achieve the grand socialist utopia before we're able to penalize people who are genuinely harming others and creating victims. And I don't you know, I don't really buy that. We have to live in the system as it exists. And, yes, we continue to fight for anti-poverty programs and continue to fight for, you know, all of those like labor rights and all of those things.

But you also have to make sure that people are able to exist in their some level of order in the system that we have right now. Same thing with abortion. You know, this would be an argument you could make against abortion rights of like, well, some women are poor and maybe if they weren't poor, maybe they wouldn't choose this for themselves right now. That's absolutely the case.

But again, we can't wait for some potentially never coming day when we have some glorious utopia where all social ills are dealt with. You have to deal with society as it exists and try to improve people's lives in the best way that you possibly can. So that's where I come from. I think it's all very well taken. And it's one of those, though, I want us all to just acknowledge the reality sometimes of what this stuff means because unfortunately, you know, we cherry pick everything.

examples, but I remember once, people were talking about the topic of abortion and they were like, in Iceland, or I think it was Denmark, I forget which nation it is. They're like, we have eradicated Down syndrome. And I was like, well, what does that mean? It means you have 100% abortion rate for people who have Down syndrome in the womb. I mean, let's all be honest about what that is. It's sick, right? It's sick.

And like, that's eugenics. Like, let's be honest. A lot of people make that choice. It's a free country. You don't understand it. But it's one of those where we should acknowledge what that means, the reality of, you know, we tried to paper over this stuff. You know, Ross actually put it really well in his column. He was talking about Canada. He says it is barbaric to establish a bureaucratic system that

offers death as a reliable treatment for suffering, and enlists the healing profession in delivering this cure. And while there may be worse evils ahead, this isn't a slippery slope argument. When 10,000 people are availing themselves of your euthanasia system every year, you have already entered the dystopia. And so that gets to the Canadian figures. - What I disagree with there, in the narrow confines of what we're talking about in the UK, which is significantly different than the Canadian context, what is just passed into law here,

is that people aren't choosing death. They are going to die, but they're given, this allows them to go out on their own terms. And that is the narrow confines within which I am okay with it. And not only okay with it, where I actively support it. I think it is the right and more moral position to give people that opportunity to go out with dignity and with vastly less pain at the

end of their lives. So to me, that distinction is really important. And that's why, you know, again, and I guess I'm sort of like a centrist on this issue, why I don't think expanding it to people who are mentally ill, who may be in, I'm not diminishing their pain and suffering, like they may be in extraordinary psychological and sometimes also physical pain.

But psychologists have a very difficult time determining, even in cases of so-called treatment-resistant depression, whether people are going to be permanently afflicted with this or if there may be some

life change or just as you get older or some new treatment, psychologists are very bad at predicting whether this is going to be a permanent state of psychological distress for any given individual. And so in that case, I do feel that the moral calculus is quite different. And to offer people rather than we're going to keep trying, we're going to keep fighting, we're going to get in

you through this, like we want you here with us and among us and we value you instead of that being the message, having even the possibility that the message would be like, you know, we could help you off yourself. I think that's horrible. I genuinely think that's horrible. But that's not what's being contemplated in the UK. And so that's why I feel like they have drawn the boundaries in a way that is, you know, basically correct.

And with a lot of thought towards like the morals and ethics of the situation. I think, well, look, America is becoming much more secular. We're the most secular country that we've ever been, you know, in our modern history. This is going to come just I can guarantee you, you know, even outside of the Oregon context. That was a big what was in the 90s, maybe 2000s. It was a big culture war, but I can see it in a federal level.

for somebody, at least somebody's going to propose this legislation or something. So that's why I wanted to talk about this because across the Anglosphere, this is happening now. This is going to be policy. And actually thinking about the reality of what it looks like in practice, et cetera, and what the rules and the confines and all that stuff should be, it's really important. Because otherwise, you know, look, like the Canada thing, I just keep coming back to because it started off exactly like what we're talking about here. And then a couple of years later, 4% of all deaths in Canada are assisted suicide. And you're like, whoa, what?

And, yeah, like I said, 96% are terminally ill. Great. You know, I guess within the context of that. But if you could feel comfortable it would stay with terminally ill people, would you support it then? I don't know. I mean, the problem is just that with all government policy, it's just, you know, in terms of the rules and like you just said about –

the definition and then here's the crazy part too is like what about you know advances in medical science I mean already there are certain types of cancers which have effectively been eradicated or are completely you know able to treat just in the last five ten years if you're gonna die in six months it's not very vanishingly small people say that but there are a lot of there are cases of people who beat the odds you know and so you're like well what if you make a decision there are misdiagnosis you know that

What if somebody does kill themselves based upon a misdiagnosis? There are enough cases on the edges and all that that, I don't know, I just think this is a great way

really a gray area, quote unquote. There's also, you know, the question of Alzheimer's, right? You know, and informed consent, your ability to even make a decision. Like, are you lucid when you make that decision? Are you not? You know, especially if you look at the death numbers for cancers and a lot of these, they're afflicting people well into their 80s. Who determines whether they're of a sound mind? Maybe when they're in a lucid state, they don't want to die.

When they're in a lot of pain, they do. You know, so I mean, the edge cases and the moral quadrants are just crazy. I mean, that's why they built into this a lot of like,

time and constraints and checks to make sure that you don't have a flippant decision made and next thing you know, someone who may not have really wanted to die has died. And I mean, just, it's kind of similar to how I feel about the issue of choice. I do think these issues are extremely fraught. I think they're morally fraught. I think they're personally fraught. I think they're very difficult. And that's why I feel like the person themselves and their families are

In these narrow circumstances where you have received a clear-cut, terminally ill, you're going to be dead within six months diagnosis, leaving it up to the individual and their families rather than government legislation.

In my opinion, that is the best way to deal with situations that are inherently morally and ethically and personally fraught. Yeah, makes sense. All right, let's get to AOC. So there has been a lot of chatter about potential AOC 2028 bid. I have to say a lot of the chatter, sorry, we can put this tear sheet up on the screen, seem to assert that AOC herself has,

had floated this idea that maybe she would run in 2028. But that doesn't, I mean, at least publicly, we don't have any reporting to confirm that. But anyway, here's an article from The Hill basically saying that people are talking about not underestimating her, et cetera, et cetera. So it does spark an interesting discussion about whether she would be an effective messenger and national standard bearer for the Democratic Party. We do have a little way too premature conversation

polling of a potential 2028 Democratic primary field. Let's put this up on the screen. And you got Kamala Harris coming in at 41%. I mean, it's kind of gross to see that there, given that she just failed. But it's also just like name ID. You know, like people are like, oh, I don't know, the last lady, I guess her. 8%, you got Gavin. 7%, Josh Shapiro. 6%, Pete Buttigieg, Tim Walz. And AOC coming in at 4%.

I also want to put in a note here that John Fetterman does not even achieve 1%. So I was kind of happy to see that. But in any case, 4%, you know, it's not nothing, but it's also not exactly where you'd want to start on. I mean, look, I don't have AOC derangement center. Like I think AOC on a lot of issues is aligned with me. I think, you know, I think it's better she's in the house versus Joseph Crowley. I don't think she would be an effective national messenger because she just

she has done too much of this. She's too much associated with this like, identitarian, woke, academic language and I think it would be very hard for her to shake that off at this point because it has been such a central part of the brain. I mean, she, when Bernie went on Rogan, she was one of the ones who was very upset about it. I don't want to hear it from this lady. You know, again, I,

I appreciate her, and I do think she has done a better job messaging recently and has sort of adjusted her approach, and that's great. And obviously she did very well in her district. She actually – there were a lot of people we interviewed who were AOC Trump voters. We'll get to that in a moment. But for me, I would like to see someone who was more clearly grounded –

in a left populist economic message like a Sean Fain, who's the president of the UAW, who I think is kind of like the ideal messenger who has so much credibility about working people of all stripes and universal programs and being able to speak to people in rural and urban and suburban areas. To me, that's really the model. Yeah.

And I mean, my take, which is consistent now across, is I don't think that the Democratic nominee will be any of these people. So even looking Kamala, Gavin, Josh Shapiro, Beat Buttigieg, Tim Walz, AOC, Gretchen Whitmer, J.B. Pritzker. You have more hope for the Democratic Party than I do, Sagar. I just think that at a basic level.

What has to happen is that out of chaos, chaos loves a vacuum. And if we look at all precedents, 2012, the Republican Party has no idea what to do. Mitt Romney loses and the base loses it over immigration in 2014.

No establishment Republican is capable of filling that void. Donald Trump comes down the escalator, blows it out. 1992, again, if you look at the polling going into '91 of all of the people that they thought were going to win, it was Jerry Brown. I don't even remember the guy from Massachusetts, whoever the senator

was at that time. After the devastating loss of Dukakis, Bill Clinton is like number 10 on the list. You can go and look at the debates. On the debate stage, it's hilarious. He's like off to the side somewhere. And he wins in 92. The point is, is that coming out of those, it's always somebody who you don't expect, and it's somebody who can fill in a vacuum, which the current establishment is not able to do. The Democratic Party is

back to that level where their leadership has no credibility. And I've said this too, who is the base of the Democratic Party today? It's rich white people. The one thing you can give rich white people, they want to win. So whoever they think is going to win, they will vote for them.

I think these people can win though, soccer. That's my thing. Oh, you think Gavin Newsom's going to win? I don't think so. No, I think, I mean, yeah, I kind of do. I mean, I hope you're right. I want to be wrong. Trust me. And I think there's a possibility for it because I do think that the kind of liberal establishment approach to the Trump era has been

thoroughly slayed. And I think next time that you have a left populist who runs, I think they can relentlessly say that the neoliberals like Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg, like the standard issue people, these are the people who are not electable, right? That was wielded so effectively against Bernie in 2016 and especially in 2020. It was wielded so effectively. Now I think the tables have turned where you do have a chance to make that argument

that like, no, no, no, the left populist, we're not the unelected. You people, you're the unelectable one. And I do think it will carry more weight and the institutions like MSNBC that carry the narrative of no only establishment Democrats who we personally like, those are the only people who can get elected. So there's a chance.

There's a chance. However, I do think that there are a lot of affluent liberals who do largely make up the base of the party who feel like they love Pete Buttigieg going on Fox News and giving them the business. And these other like very highly educated technocratic vibe people who are, you know, much more verbally sort of capable than Kamala Harris, but by and large are basically the same politician as she is. Like, I...

I think that they think those sorts of people can be an answer. And so anyway, there's a chance, but I'm not as convinced as you are that it won't be one of the people on this list. - It certainly could be. I mean, look, the case for why it would be one of these people is if Trump does a effective repeat of last time around, where you drop to a 30% approval rating and you get blown out in the midterms.

and now you're a George W. Bush type figure, and you've got J.D. who basically doesn't have a chance in hell of trying to run on anything that's positive previously. - Right. - And you just have a consensus anti-Trump candidate. - Yeah, and Democrats-- - That'd be easy. - Do great in the midterm so they feel like we've solved our problems. We have no problems. We can just keep going with the standard program. - That's a very easy way for these. So for Newsom and all of them need to pray what happens is that Trump repeats the mistakes of the first term.

Just basically, you know, chaos, tax bill, and all of that. Something unpopular like the ACA repeal again. And they can just run on that, and that's the simplest campaign in the world. I don't think it will happen again. I genuinely don't. I think that the Trump people have at least learned some lessons, and they're going to try and govern in a different direction. And I would say there's a 50% chance, whereas last time it was a 100% chance of what happened.

Let's say things do turn out a little bit differently. Let's say Trump is sitting around 45, maybe 46 approval, right around where Obama is. He loses a little bit in the midterms, but not a lot. Now you have a real chaotic situation. I mean, the craziest situation would be one that happened to Joe Biden, where what if the Republicans win in the midterm election? That would be devastating, I think, to the current party because that would mean Hakeem and all these people and Schumer. I mean, they are done. I think that's probably.

Honestly, if you want the chaos situation, you should hope for that because that would mean a total reassessment at the top to the bottom of the DNC for who you are. And I think that's, you know, I would give it a 10% chance. But I mean, you know what? There was, I think, Polly Market had a 5% chance of Donald Trump winning with the popular vote margin that he eventually did win. So crazy things can happen. I think it would be interesting if AOC ran for governor of New York. I think she would get blown out. I think she'd have more of a chance there.

You know, she has so much name recognition. But so much of our politics, so much of our politics is just I mean, that really comes through in with the AOC Trump voters. So much of it was just like these two are both sort of like celebrities and controversial and people are talking about them. So there must be something there. And, you know, she does have that factor. And I think it would be really interesting to see if someone with her politics

could govern at an executive level and a state level. We don't really have any model of that. So to me, that would be more interesting for AOC than jumping from the House to the presidency, which, I mean, that is also a very difficult feat to accomplish. Has anyone ever accomplished that? House to presidency? Gerald Ford. Ford was the leader, but I guess he was vice president. Yeah. I don't know if it's...

It's a tough one. Yeah, I don't know if it, anyway, if it's happened, it's been rare. There's only ever been president to House, which is John Quincy Adams. Even our history buff over here isn't sure. I'm going over it in my head. I can't think of a single person who jumped from the House of Representatives to president of the United States. They're either total outsider, a general, senator, secretary of state. I honestly think Ford might be the last person. But again, he technically was the vice president. And that's what eventually, but he was never really elected either.

Garfield, elected when an incumbent congressman. Only person according to Cora. James Garfield. Been a while. That's interesting. I don't know a lot about Garfield. I do have an autobiography, or a biography of him on my shelf, though, which is interesting. All right, we got Shank Chyugor standing by. Crystal and him are going to have a long discussion. I'll be stepping out, but we'll see you all later.

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