6/16/25: Missiles Rain In Israel & Iran, Dave Smith Says Impeach Trump, US On Brink Of Joining Iran War
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Good morning, everybody. Happy Monday. We have an extraordinary show for everybody today. We're largely going to be focusing with the conflict of Israel and Iran, our involvement. We've got a lot of guests here in the show. So what do we have today? Yeah, we're going to look at this from every angle. We're going to break down for you the very latest. There was some significant strikes inside of Israel yesterday. We'll show you some of that damage and what we can say about where we are with regard to the conflict.

very latest in terms of statements from Trump. We're also going to have Dave Smith join us for a couple of blocks to talk about the possibility that this is not just about Iran's nuclear program, that this is an out-and-out regime change program. You've got a number of members of Congress, Republican members of Congress, calling for precisely that. We're also going to look at

the likelihood or potential that the U.S., which is already supporting Israel in attacking Iran, is going to get even more directly involved. So we'll try to evaluate exactly where we are with that with Dave Smith. We're also going to be very fortunate to be joined by Dan Caldwell. Now, Dan was previously at the Pentagon under Pete Hegseth.

He was pushed down under extraordinary circumstances, but he is a true insider, would have a lot of insight into the conversations that were happening behind the scenes about negotiations with Iran. I want to talk to him about, we now have reporting that at least some of that diplomacy was effectively a ruse. How long has that been a ruse? Were they serious about it

all. So there's a lot we want to get to. Also want to ask him about some of that internal turmoil, as much as he can tell us. Well, you know, he's got legal limits of what exactly he can say, but extraordinary to get to speak with him. And we're looking forward to that. We're going to take a look at some of the MAGA infighting and reaction and also have a great clip from Tim Dillon. A little bit of levity.

to react to here at the end. Not only levity, but one of the important things about pop culture in the year 2003 is that by and large, save for the punk community, most of the American media was on the side, including pop culture, of the US war in Iraq. And it took several years for it to turn against that. So as we are on the brink of possibly our own intervention, I mean, we're already a

intervening in some respects, but full-on offensive involvement, it's important to check in with pop culture tastemakers and others and get a lay of the land in this new media environment and be like, okay, who people are listening to, how do they feel about it? Because that's vitally important.

especially because Tim, by his own admission, was an Iraq war supporter. Although I think he was. I didn't realize that. Yeah, he said he, I think he was like high on Percocet and selling cars or something at the time. But, you know, who amongst us? That's Kyle's origin story, actually. So the two of them, the two of them have a lot in common.

Kim Bond over that. He was anti-Iraq war, but the high on Percocet and the car dealership. So before we, or it might've been mortgages. I forget exactly. Before we get to that, thank you everybody. I know that during conflict, we had a lot of influx, which is deeply appreciated. So many, you know, thousands of you signed up at breakingpoints.com for our monthly free trial with that.

Free trial is over, but you can still join to support our show. It's what enabled all of our weekend coverage and more. Team has been working literally around the clock ever since the outbreak of conflict. I anticipate that will probably be the case now for some weeks, months, years, unfortunately. So let's go ahead and update everybody on what has happened in the last 72

Yeah. One quick update before we jump in. One other small piece of good news. They found the suspect in Minnesota killing an attack of killing of one lawmaker attack on another lawmaker after a multi-day manhunt. They were able to apprehend him pretty close to his home. Residents saw him on a trail camera and they were able to send in drones and locate him and apprehend him.

So a little bit of good news before we jump into the war here. All right. That being said, let's go ahead and put some of these images up on the screen. This is some of the fallout from attacks lobbied at Israel from Iran. So these are images from inside of Israel. You can see some direct strikes here. Obviously, they have Iron Dome and other weapons.

ways of intercepting some of the missile barrage, but quite a number were able still to get through. You know, we're somewhat limited in being able to assess specifically the damage within Israel. They try to keep under wraps some of the extent of the damage. We'll give you an example of that in just a moment. But while the hits inflicted on Iran are

appear to be much more significant, Israel has taken damage. Let's go ahead and put the next images up on the screen. These are coming from Iran specifically. A number of these are from Tehran. Over the past several days as this war has been ongoing, Israel of course launching an aggressive, illegal, unprovoked series of strikes on Iran to kick off this war.

with the support of the U.S. Here you can see an apartment building that was targeted. We know that there were a number of assassinations, both of military political leaders in Iran as well as some nuclear scientists. And you can see, you know, some of the catastrophic damage. There were...

quite a number of civilians who've been killed in Iran at this point. Let's go ahead and go to the next piece. As I said, the damage in Iran appears to be much more significant, both in terms of the death toll and the damage they've been able to exact.

However, there have been some significant strikes within Israel. Let's go ahead and take a look at Trey Yinks. The Fox News reporter has been doing a great job on the ground there trying to cover exactly what is unfolding. Talking about one of the early strikes that hit the equivalent of Israel's Pentagon. And you'll see that there is a quick intervention from an Israeli there on the scene to try to block this information from getting out. Let's take a look at that.

The Iranians have responded with three waves of ballistic missiles. This is Israel's version of the Pentagon, the Kiryat. And the building on this compound was just hit.

Please go back. Go back, please. Go back, please. You can understand here, it's very tense at this specific location because the Iranians are now targeting the defense establishment of Israel. And so I'm going to have my cameraman pan up here to this building just across the street from the Kiryat. Go there. Go there. Go there. Go there.

So clearly, Sagar, we're not too happy about him recording there. And he's taken a lot of heat online just for being a journalist. Oh, they've hated him for years now, especially since October 7th because he had the audacity to humanize some people in Gaza and speak out for Palestinian journalists. Now, as usual, all he was doing was his job.

When you're a wartime correspondent, what do you do? You go where a ballistic missile falls and then you report it. But unfortunately, the Israeli government and many of its apparatchiks on social media have been attacking him, saying that he is providing battle damage assessments. And there has been an intense censorship regime inside of Israel for the location of those strikes. It's extraordinary just to see these images. Tel Aviv has—

I mean, basically all of Israel has never received this level of bombardment from a foreign actor. I mean, even in the breakout of the 67 or the 73 wars, like that was obviously a very high level of conflict. But this is not something that we're seeing in the individual streets of Tel Aviv. I mean, for example, for the Pentagon, their version to be hit, which is literally in a downtown civilian area, that's extraordinary to watch. You're also watching something, what I think dispels a lot of the myths around isolation.

Iron Dome or David's Sling or any of these other programs that they have. Keep in mind, we have seen missiles rain down now on Israel multiple times. You know, I can't even keep count of the number of barrages. And this is with the massive assistance of the United States military. I've tried to highlight here that if it weren't for us, they would be getting it.

even way more on the chin. I'm still uncertain as to whether they actually underestimated Iran's capability. The propaganda machine from Israel is that they've achieved total dominance over Iranian skies. It seems to largely be true. They seem to have targeted in some pretty extraordinary, both assassination operations, rebuilding drone facilities inside of Iran to target their ballistic missile stocks. And look, it's only been a couple of days, so it's very possible that Iran could exhaust all of its stocks.

very soon and then Israel would achieve total dominance. But they have been able to punch back, I think in a way that we have literally never seen before on the streets of Israel, and that's expanding the war. I mean, let's put A4, please, up on the screen. This just shows some of the locations of all of these strikes. So you can see on the Israeli front, you both have attacks on the Natanz main nuclear enrichment facility that was attacked on Friday.

You've seen huge attacks all across of Tehran, both targeted assassination strikes. That's what a lot of those apartment building ones were, from what we can tell, is hitting the penthouse suites of a lot of the top IRGC officials. Famously, they also hit a bunker where there were all of these IRGC top intelligence officials and commanders assassinated.

that were there. Many of those deaths have been confirmed by the Iranian authorities. The Tabriz nuclear facility has also been hit as of Friday, and I believe there have been strikes in the Fort O facility as well. Another thing that everybody needs to keep in mind here, the battle damage assessments and the battle damage denials by the Iranians and the Israelis, neither are too believed. We have no actual really idea about the facilities that have been hit and their capabilities. We have a little bit.

in terms of what the IAEA has been able to report to us. But of course, they don't have the same view that the Iranians and/or the Israelis would have. So I really wanna caution everyone because initially in the opening hours of the war, they were like, "Oh my God, this is total Israeli victory." And then all of a sudden you see Tel Aviv, you have Tel Aviv civilians literally

hiding in a bunker watching downtown Tel Aviv taking strikes. I mean, can people imagine? I live only a few miles from the Pentagon. If the area in between my house and there is taking ballistic missiles to the streets, sure, not that many people are dying. Cars are getting blown up. People's houses, they're getting dug out of the rubble. I mean, this is insanity if you are living in Israel. Yeah. I mean, where we are right now is just a few miles.

Literally, yeah. I mean, actually, right here as well. Yeah, I mean, we're probably closer to the U.S. Capitol. So similarly, as we've seen, multiple Israeli strikes on the top echelons of the government. And that's the final myth that I would like to dispel is that while, yes, there have been strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities already,

A huge portion of Israeli kinetic activity has been targeted at the top echelons of the Iranian regime at the IRGC command center, but also many of the political leaders, including the top negotiator who was negotiating with the United States on some sort of Iranian deal. And we're going to talk with Dave about how regime change is the real goal of this war, which is something that we see consistently now in Israeli messaging, in Israeli action.

But these are just the opening strikes, and we really can begin to get a sight of where we are going. This is going to be a long campaign by the Israelis' own admission. They have said that this is going to take weeks in terms of their operation. They're claiming that they expected to take actually much more damage than this. Again, I'm not quite sure if I believe them. In terms of the casualty count, we were trying to reconcile it this morning, Crystal, with

But we're not 100% sure exactly where things are right now. Yeah, so this is the latest numbers for The New York Times. Best we know this morning, they say Israeli strikes have killed at least 224 people in Iran. According to the Iranians, those are predominantly civilians. The number I saw was 90% civilians.

Injured more than 1,400 people in Israel. At least 24 people identified as civilians have been killed in retaliatory barrages with roughly 600 injured. So you see a much higher death toll being taken on the Iranian side. But to Sagar's point, you know, the images of destruction in central Israel, in Tel Aviv, are extraordinary. And, you know,

Did the Israelis expect the Iranians to be able to exact this sort of price? I have no idea. But I mean, we do know that Netanyahu and its successive Israeli governments have been willing to sacrifice their own citizens on behalf of whatever larger or self-interested goal that they are pursuing. So it is entirely possible that they did expect Iran to be able to respond. You know, this goes back to—you guys will recall we covered it extensively here—

The Iranian provocations previously, including an assassination directly on Iranian soil and the Iranian retaliation, which by all accounts was telegraphed to the US. We assisted in defending Israel because that's what we do. We always do.

And they you know, there was some minimal damage that was exacted during that those retaliatory strikes. And so I don't know if there was an assessment made of basically like, oh, well, this is all they've got. But our analysis at the time was very much that this was a sort of, you know, a demonstration, almost performative assessment.

because they didn't want to spark a broader conflict or a wider conflict. I mean, strategically, that may have been an error. Iran has taken a number of blows, especially not only in that exchange, but also with the destruction of Hezbollah, the intense attacks on Hezbollah and some of their other proxies. That has been a blow to Iran. And now Israel talks about this octopus strategy. Now they're, quote unquote, going after the head.

What I've been reading is that the Israelis are under no illusion that they alone, without the US getting directly involved, and again, I really want to be clear, we are already involved, have been involved, we're involved in the Sutterfuge campaign, the deception, to enable this entire attack. It is our missiles that are being sent here. We are providing extensive defense, and we'll talk more about that. But the question now, so the question isn't are we involved, we're involved.

We are involved. The Iranians see us as being involved. Everybody sees us as being involved. Trump acknowledges that we're involved, etc. The question now is, do we become even more directly involved? The Israelis seem to know they can't, number one, destroy the nuclear program without our direct involvement. I do think the nuclear program, I mean, this is a bit of like a cover. It's a bit of an excuse, a contextual excuse for effectuating what they really want, which is regime change. And make no doubt about it, when you look at the targets

of these strikes and the way that they are going about this today. Now they're going more aggressively after the overall energy infrastructure, the oil and gas infrastructure, so attempting to cripple the entire economy. They've taken out significant political and military leadership. This is driving at regime change. And I think they have an understanding there, too, that that also will not occur without getting the U.S. flunked.

fully, fully involved. And so no secret to anyone who watches this show or has their eyes open and are paying attention that that is exactly what Bibi Netanyahu ultimately wants here.

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To the point of the fact that we've got more energy infrastructure being hit at this point, we've got another Trey Yanks report about where we are and what the Israelis are planning, as best we know, to do next. What we are seeing today, Israel has never faced.

and Israeli officials tell us they are fighting for their survival. You raise an important point. This is a shared gas field. It's the largest field in the world. And on the Iranian side, it starts near to the city of Bandar al-Basin in the south. But it goes over, and the Qataris and the Americans are invested in the other side of the gas field. And I spoke with a source who described the Israeli strike against that

as a dangerous escalation because there is concern that if ultimately that gas field is targeted and the Iranians start to respond in the region, that American interests and assets could be hit or affected. And it could lead to an increase in energy prices. It could lead to American forces or embassies in the region coming under attack.

And so there are certainly officials in this part of the world that are concerned about the location of these strikes. But the bottom line here is that the Israelis understand the next step up on the escalation ladder for them is going after the energy infrastructure in Iran. And we're already seeing some of that energy infrastructure targeted. Oil, I haven't checked this morning, but oil prices are already shooting up. Prepare for that to be another story that's important to take into

paid a lot. Take a look at. Yeah, that's right. You can blame Donald Trump and Bibi Netanyahu for that one whenever you're paying more at the gas pump. Already just this morning from the Israeli Ministry of Defense, this is breaking as of this morning, quote, the residents of Tehran will pay the price and soon because the arrogant dictator from Tehran has become a cowardly murderer who fires targeted shots at the civilian home front in Israel to deter the IDF from continuing the attack that is collapsing its capabilities.

I will say, look, I don't celebrate the attacks on any civilians. I have friends who live in Tel Aviv and in Israel. I literally am so worried about them. But it's a little, you know, it's a little on the nose to be talking about civilian attacks and civilian infrastructure hits from the head of the

Israeli military. However, look, what we do know, as you said, is that the damage on Iran, I don't want anyone to take away from this that Israel has taken more damage. No, they've taken more damage than most people expected for a massively militarized Western nation with the full support of the Western empire. But

But Iran has been taking an absolute beating here. They have hundreds of civilians and or military leaders that have been killed. Of course, it's always difficult to know which. But the idea that – especially with their air defense as to where it is right now, they're trying and they have some capability but they have not.

the Israelis are claiming total air superiority. If they want to start leveling massive neighborhoods in Tehran, it's going to happen. And it will unfortunately very happen, likely very quickly. Last thing, also just to show everybody the level of penetration the Israelis have inside of Tehran. Can we go ahead and play A8, please, and show people this? This is flagged by a friend of our show, Trita Parsi. You actually have

car bombs that were being set off around downtown Tehran. Trita Parsi says this is, quote, literally the definition of terrorism. A lot of it are targeted assassinations. There's been stories of this probably for the last decade or so, right, of Iranian nuclear scientists getting into their car only for it to explode. But the level of penetration, obviously, that Mossad had in the IRGC is unbelievable. I mean, just from a pure, like,

like craft perspective they were able to build a drone facility and all in there and this was a lot of this was being pumped out into the sphere in the immediate times of the war but

That's part of why I found the strikes on Tel Aviv so amazing, just to the eye, because the way they had been talking, it was like, oh, they wiped out their entire ballistic missile capability. And then, I don't know, hours later, downtown Tel Aviv, Pentagon is taking a hit by a ballistic missile. I mean, I just think that's absolutely crazy. They continue these really strikes on a lot of Iranian capability to defend itself with these ballistic missiles.

We'll continue to see. Iran still has quite a bit stockpile, a couple thousand. Just last flag here in terms of the United States. The U.S. THAAD batteries, these missile defense batteries, have been pounding Iranian missiles. Just so everybody knows, we can produce here in the United States about 12 to 15 a year. That's about how long it takes. Yeah. It's not an unlimited supply. No, it's

Actually, the opposite. It's the ultimate limited supply. So hope some shit doesn't happen somewhere else that's actually pretty important to the United States. But we'll talk about that in a little bit later. Yeah, I mean, listen, Iran is a giant country. It's huge. Ten times the population of Israel. And this is an existential fight. I mean, I don't think there's any – I don't think they have any illusions about the goals here being complete regime change, turning them into a failed state a la –

Syria or, you know, or Libya or one of the other, you know, places where we had our foreign adventures in the Middle East before. And it just seems like we never freaking learn. Like we never learn. I see the same level of triumphalism of like, this is going to be so easy. You might as well put up the freaking mission accomplished banner. Like the, the,

I am getting so many flashbacks to the run up and the build up to the Iraq war. And one of the crazy things to me here is that they didn't even like really do a full sale propaganda pitch before just going all in and expecting, you know, expecting us

the American people to be down for another forever war against a country that has vastly more size and capabilities than Iraq ever did. So, you know, that's, that's where we are. And I think there's a lot of, you know, a lot of uncertainty about where things go next. Trump, of course, has been all over the map. Um,

in terms of what he has been saying. Actually, let's go ahead real quick before we bring Dave Smith and go back to A6 and we can put some of the Trump comments up on the screen because I think this is important. You know, first, he was very triumph, like triumphalist saying two months ago, I gave Iran a 60 day ultimatum to make a deal. They should have done it. Today is day 61. I told them what to do. They just couldn't get there. Now they have perhaps a second chance. Another commentary, he was saying that, you know, the people he was bragging about the fact that the

people they were negotiating with are now dead. So taking absolute credit, being delighted by the outcome here and making it quite clear how involved we were in the strikes. And then we have other comments from him as well. Let's put the next one up on the screen.

Here, now he's saying Iran and Israel should make a deal and will make a deal, just like I got India and Pakistan to make. I mean, if you think that is going to be easy, you're an absolute fool at this point. Let's put the next one up on the screen. You have him saying now the U.S. had nothing to do with the attack on Iran tonight.

Like you already said, oh, this was day 61 and that's why this was happening now. You already celebrated it and now you want to pretend like you had nothing to do with it. Okay, let's go ahead and take a look at the next thing. He had a call with President Putin. He said he called this morning to very nicely wish me a happy birthday to more importantly talk about Iran. We talked at length, much less time was spent talking about Russia, Ukraine. That'll be for next week. He's doing the planned prisoner swaps.

The call lasted an hour. He feels, as I do, this war in Israel and Iran should end, to which I explained his war should also end. And Sagar, before we get to Dave Smith, I mean, it looks like there are two possible outcomes here. One is Trump forces this to stop, which, of course, he has the capability to. Hey, we're not going to protect you.

You're going to have to actually bear the consequences, Israel, of your actions. No, not only that. And we're not going to sell you the munitions. And we're not going to sell you the weapons. Because by Trump's own admission, there are bombs, as he bragged about in his Truth Social post, just so everybody knows. Exactly. If they don't make any THAAD missile defense system in Israel, how's your David Sling working out for you? If it weren't for the full force of the U.S. Empire, Tel Aviv would be freaking rocked way more than it is right now. So he either makes this end or we're getting pulled in.

I mean, those are the two directions that we could go in. So with that being said, let's go ahead and bring in Dave Smith to get his reaction to the latest.

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Data based on independent studies sponsored by Future Health. Future Health is not a health care services provider. Meds are prescribed at provider's discretion. Taking over the helm of NBC Nightly News, a 75-year-old broadcast. It's a great responsibility. Good evening.

I'm Tom Yamas. You have to go out there to bring people at home closer to the story. Wildfires continue to be a threat. With that massive hurricane comes the massive response. The best reporters in our business know how to listen. And when you listen, you get the truth. For NBC News, I'm Tom Yamas. That's what we do every night. NBC Nightly News with Tom Yamas. Evenings on NBC.

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We're very excited now to be joined by a friend of the show, Dave Smith. We're going to be talking about the fallout here from the U.S. involvement in the war between Israel and Iran. But most importantly, we want to get to the actual goal here of the Israeli military campaign. Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu really giving the game away yesterday in an interview with Fox News where he calls for regime change with Iran. Let's take a listen. So is regime change part of the effort here?

Could certainly be the result because the Iran regime is very weak. I think it's basically left with two things. It's plans to have atomic bombs and ballistic missiles. That's basically what Iran has. They certainly don't have the people. 80% of the people will throw these theological thugs out. I mean, they murder them. They oppress them for 46 years. They've yearned for freedom. I mean, they shoot women because their hair is uncovered. They shoot students. They...

They just suck the oxygen from this brave and gifted people, the Iranian people. I want to talk about the nuclear threat. I want to talk about President Trump. You just said Iran tried to assassinate President Trump twice. Do you have intel that the assassination attempts on President Trump were directly from Iran?

Through proxies, yes. Through their intel, yes. They want to kill him. Look, he's enemy number one. He's a decisive leader. He never took the path that others took to try to bargain with them in a way that is weak, giving them basically a pathway to enriched uranium, which means a pathway to the bomb, padding it with billions and billions of dollars. He took up his...

fake agreement and basically tore it up. He killed Qasem Soleimani. He said, made it very clear, including now, you cannot have a nuclear weapon, which means you cannot enrich. He's been very forceful. So for them, he's enemy number one. Look, they also tried to kill me, but I'm his junior partner. They understand that President Trump is a great threat to Iran's plans to weaponize nuclear weapons and use them. When did you tell President Trump you were going to launch these strikes?

Look, I've been in constant contact with President Trump. We've known each other for many years. And obviously we informed our American friends and President Trump, our great friend, ahead of time. We did. He knew about it, of course. I mean, there were reports that President Trump kind of helped you achieve your strategic surprise by publicly urging you not to attack when he already knew you had decided to do it. So you were closely coordinating with the U.S. throughout this process.

Look, we're fully coordinated, but understand that America, under President Trump, will make the decisions that are best for America. And that's the way it is. He understands that I, as the prime minister of Israel, the one and only Jewish state, must make the decisions that are important for the survival of my country, and he will do what is best for America.

That is a relationship of mutual respect and mutual confidence. I mean, there's so much going on there, Dave. There is regime change. There is the flattery and the lies potentially about this some so-called Iranian plot to assassinate Trump. And then finally there, there is the, you know, really buttering it up, but calling Trump to join him in this war on regime change. Just broadly, we want to give you the floor both to react to that and to the entire situation here.

Yeah, well, you know, it's just you're allowed to throw as many lies at the wall as you want to when you're selling a war. So, you know, there's a lot there to kind of unpack. Number one, I would just say, first off, the accusation that Iran was trying to assassinate Donald Trump just doesn't meet the most basic of smell tests. I mean, like, so you're telling me that the Iranian regime essentially declared war on the United States of America already, tried to murder the sitting president, and then

And yet his response was to try to negotiate with them for a couple months until finally we had Israel attack them. Does that make sense to anybody? They tried to murder Donald Trump and then he entered negotiations with – come on. It's too ridiculous. And you could go back – the thing about Saddam Hussein that a lot of people kind of forget in history is that –

it is true that at one point Saddam Hussein did have what you could call weapons of mass destruction. He used chemical weapons, um, in his 1980 through 1986 war with Iran and was supported by the United States of America while he did it. Um, he then got rid of those weapons programs and the neocons and, uh, uh,

Benjamin Netanyahu himself. You can read in his writing in the 90s when he was telling us that Iran was a few years away from a nuclear weapon all the way back then. But he was also saying that they wanted to overthrow Saddam Hussein for other reasons, for their clean break strategy. You can read about this in the Project for a New American Century, in the Clean Break Memo written by Richard Perle and David Wormser. They talked about this over and over and over again. And then after 9-11, they said the issue here is weapons of mass destruction.

But that was – they always wanted the regime change. And so it's the same thing again. The goal here has been regime change in Iran. He's been open about this. He even admitted it a little bit there. But let's just take them – look, let's just really assess the situation where we are right now. Let's take them by their own logic. If, as all the hawks are bragging right now or saying that –

essentially Israel was already at war with Iran because Iran attacked first on October 7th. Their proxies attacked. And what does that mean? You know, it's like when they say Iran is the number one sponsor of terror. Do they ever have to back that up with data? Do they ever like, have you ever,

Ever heard one war hawk who makes the claim that Iran is the number one sponsor of terror ever show you, look, this is how much terrorists have gotten support from Saudi, and this is how much more they've gotten from Iran? No. They never even feel the need to make this argument. Compare how much money the U.S. has given to terrorist organizations, or Israel has given to terrorist organizations, or Israel has facilitated other countries' giving. There's no objective standard here. But if essentially the standard is because Iran

Iran has given Hamas some weapons in the past. Therefore, they're a proxy. And therefore, when they attack Israel on October 7th, Iran has attacked Israel. Well, then...

What is Israel attacking Iran other than the U.S. attacking Iran, right? If that's not – I mean, and come on. The U.S. is a proxy state. Yeah, same with Ukraine and Russia. It's the same kind of argumentation. But this one is so much more devastating because it's not just that we give Israel the weapons and the money and the intelligence, but at the very least here, I mean –

We had people, we had evacuation orders 24 to 48 hours before the attack came. Donald Trump is speaking out of both sides of his mouth. Netanyahu here is clearly saying that Donald Trump knew this attack was coming. So imagine, imagine they had that on a round. Right.

With October 7th. They don't have anything close to that. So make no mistake about it. We are at war with Iran right now. The United States of America is. Donald Trump has betrayed MAGA, betrayed America first. He has made the most disastrous decision to lead America into another war. Now, if they want to say that, look, there is an argument here, I suppose, that perhaps Iran is a better candidate for a regime change than Iraq or Libya was. This is the argument they're going to make.

it seems a much more compelling argument that we're staring at yet another disaster. And as you were pointing out, Crystal, you know, I heard a little bit of your segment as I was waiting here. As you were pointing out, which I think is really the most important point, is that this is the celebrating. It's just like...

Unbelievable. 24 hours into it, they're all celebrating how easy this was. Look, I remember I was a little kid at the time, but I do vividly remember the celebrations after the Gulf War in 1991. And they were like, look how easy that was. And we didn't take any losses.

We went on to be bogged down in that country for 30 years following that war. We all remember the mission accomplishment. We all remember Hillary Clinton saying, we came, we saw, he's dead. A few years later when she was running for president, she wouldn't dare bring up Libya because it was so obviously a colossal failure. So the people celebrating this right now are just, they've lost their minds. People get swept up in war fever. The flashbacks, the WMD talk, the celebratory mission accomplished moment,

vibe that, you know, in that clip with Bebe and I've heard so many others say this, they're yearning for freedom. I mean, it's just like,

It makes me feel like has everybody just erased their memories of what happened here? It's utterly insane to me. And to your point about our involvement, let's put this next piece up on the screen. We now know that at least the recent discussions about diplomatic negotiations and, hey, we're going forward with these talks this weekend, was a ruse to provide cover and the element of surprise for the Israelis. So.

So now you have this report. A U.S. official confirmed to me over the weekend Israel had an operational window to assassinate Iran's supreme leader, Khamenei, but President Trump made it clear he is against such a move. This was first reported by Steve Holland. There is no reason for anyone, us, the Iranians, anyone, to believe these reports. I mean,

I mean, it does give me, also remind me of, you know, during the Biden, oh, they're very upset with Netanyahu, leaking to always Barack Ravie, they're very upset with him, et cetera, et cetera. Why would anyone, everyone,

ever believe a word that comes from Trump or Steve Witkoff or anyone else associated with this administration after they've gloated about the fact that they were using diplomatic negotiations as a tool to effectuate, to help kick off this war. I mean, I'm seeing this. I'm curious your thoughts about this, Dave. I've seen this analysis that Trump was persuaded. This might be true, but

was persuaded by Bibi that he would have a better hand going into negotiations with Iran if he let Israel start this war and participated, as we've indicated, in starting this war. That is the most idiotic, insane possible analysis I can imagine. I guess it's possible that he really is that absolutely idiotic. But what do you make of that? Is that really what happened here?

And what do you make of this report that supposedly, oh, he was the cooler head and said you can't you can't take out the supreme leader? Yeah, well, I'd say Trump might be that idiotic. And, you know, he he has again, we're kind of speculating here, but he has bragged in the past several times about how he's so smart for keeping these hawks around, because then that puts all these pressure on people to come to the negotiating table. He had John Bolton. Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. His example was John Bolton, who killed the deal with North Korea. Like that was his example of it being like such a stunning success or something like that. It's it's it reminds me of like when people brag about the Abraham Accords and what a success they were. And you're like, oh, yeah, they worked out so great. They led to this. I don't even understand how you could. You know, it'd be one thing if peace swept the Middle East after the Abraham Accords. You go, OK, maybe they played a role, but it's been a nightmare. Right.

all across the worst fighting that we've had there in 20 years. And so since our last disastrous invasions. But so, you know, look, I mean, it seems to me like there's a couple possibilities here. None of them are good. One of the possibility is that

which I think is plausibly the case, that Israel betrayed Donald Trump and then this is just his best way to deal with it. Like essentially Donald Trump was trying to negotiate and then Israel just went ahead and launched the attack anyway. And then as a response to that, Donald Trump would rather look strong and go, no, no, no, I was in on it. It was our plan all along. Or the other possibility, which I think is more likely, is that he was never negotiating in good faith and it was a distraction and Donald Trump was in on it.

Either way, we're at the same place. You know, either way, even if Donald Trump was betrayed by the Israelis and then just took their side in public, which has happened with different presidencies over the years. It certainly happened with Bill Clinton after Camp David. So...

Maybe that's the case. But then either way, then you're just so weak and pathetic that even after the Israelis betray you, you'll still come out and catch their back and support them in this war. Well, that's just as bad from the Iranian perspective and from any –

person's perspective. So, you know, we don't know. We'll probably find out more about this over time. But either way, in effect, it's the same thing. You know, like, and then we're left in the position where you're supposed to sit here and justify a sneak, a sneak attack

aggressive, preemptive attack. Like somehow you're supposed to feel like you're the good guys in an absolute war of choice against a country that does not have nuclear weapons. Let's get real here. The only country in the Middle East who secretly has nuclear weapons is Israel. Iran is a member of the nonproliferation treaty. Israel is not, and they have nuclear weapons. It's just unbelievable. And they're a

As we speak and are not part of the non-proliferation. Yeah, we actually have. Let's be cool with that. We have a non-compliant nuclear member of the NPT actually attacking a member of the NPT who is far more in compliance with said international treaty. Hey, whatever. What do I know, right? You know, what's even crazier to me, Dave, is just like the lead up to the war in Iraq, we already have our Ahmed Talabi. I actually can't believe it. But or our 1953 Operation Ajax. Let's go and put B4, please.

up on the screen, we actually have members of the Israeli government who are tweeting out pictures of the son of the Shah of Iran, you know, basically insinuating that they are going to re-implement the monarchy on

the people of Iran. It's like 1953 all over again. And or just like this fascination with these Western figures who have lived here, what, for their entire lives almost at this point. We're like, oh, actually, these guys, because we're buddies and they agree with us, the people of Iran will totally take to that. And we're going to implement this new regime. They're not even being subtle about

Like I said, these are literally members of the Israeli government who are teasing basically the restoration of the monarchy in Iran by force. It's like 2003 all over again where we have this buddy-buddy here, like you said, with the neocons in Washington, and then this theory that we can just go in, blow out the regime, and then we're going to implement this new style of government. I mean this is as naked as it gets in my opinion.

on all of this. And I just, I want you to just, you know, go through perhaps because you're so well read on the history of these, you know, these attempts by the United States and others to install these types of figures. And it never, ever works out. When are we ever back to the right horse in the Middle Ages? Yeah.

Yeah. And of course, look, installing the Shah to begin with in 1953 is a huge part of the reason why we have the current government in Iran that we have, which is a horrible repressive government that does not give their people liberty and we should all oppose that. But the thing is that war is so much worse. You know, it's like Saddam Hussein was a brutal oppressive dictator also, but the worst thing that ever happened to the people of Iraq was George W. Bush invading the country. And

you know, the only examples that people look to, which are, you know, rather remarkable examples of regime change, are Germany and Japan and how they were brought back into the, you know, liberal international order after World War II. But what was required in order to get to that point was a classification

clear war on the civilian population with millions of casualties. And if your argument is we should bring that to Iran, then don't tell me one word about how you care about how the people of Iran are being oppressed, because that's a far worse level of oppression. And so this is, again, as you guys have touched on, this is always how they talk at the

beginning of these wars. It's always that democracy will sweep the region and that the people will greet us as liberators. It'll be easy, paid foreign oil, all this stuff. But, you know, you're going to sit here and tell me about how Washington, D.C. or Tel Aviv can...

reorchestrate another society, can reconstruct it from the ground and choose its leaderships. I mean, just think about the hubris involved in that. As the late, great Harry Brown used to point out when he was talking about the war on drugs in the United States of America, the U.S. federal government can't even keep drugs out of federal prisons.

Washington, D.C. can't even solve the violent crime problem in Washington, D.C. But you're telling me we're going to install the new leader for the Iranians and the people will comply because what? Because the regime is so weak and the people want liberty so much? This regime has ruled since 1979 with the most powerful governments in the

world opposing them, working on their, on ousting them the entire time. And they've still stayed in power. So you could tell me a nice story. It's easy to write down a nice story. Oh yeah, I say we intervene and then we put the shaw's son back in and then everything works out fine. Okay, let's see that happen. And

The other thing that I'll add, and I don't know, maybe things have changed to some degree. Certainly, Israel was able to pull off that drone attack, which I don't think they would have been able to pull off in years past. But it was in 2007 that the Pentagon told George W. Bush that we cannot go to war with Iran because we do not have escalation dominance against them. Essentially meaning that they can hit all of our bases and embassies in the region, and we are very vulnerable to them. And

We've already seen demonstrated since the Israeli attack that the Iranian – the missiles that they sent last year toward Israel, as many of us guessed, that wasn't really their best. They were intentionally making an attack that wouldn't really hurt anybody, that wouldn't really lead to a war, which Iran has done over and over again. But now we've pushed them to the point where they probably don't feel that they have the option not to respond.

Donald Trump telling him to come back to the negotiating table now is a joke. I mean, what an impotent leader to be sitting there talking about coming back to the negotiating table. It's like sitting after Pearl Harbor and telling FDR, now's the time to go negotiate with the Japanese. Negotiations are over now. The time for negotiations was before this. And so...

Yeah, Donald Trump looks – and man, I supported him this last year. I apologize for doing so. It was a bad calculation. At the time, it seemed like the right one. But he should be impeached and removed for this one. And not on some like – not on some ridiculous Nancy Pelosi. Of course the Congress will never do it because they're all a bunch of corrupt hacks. This is the one thing they support. This is like the – yeah.

Donald Trump should be impeached and removed for this. All of his supporters should turn on him. It's the absolute betrayal of everything that he ran and campaigned on and everything that he stood for. And I will say, despite the fact that, you know, Donald Trump supporters have been labeled like a cult following, and that certainly is true for a percentage of his supporters, he is going to lose his coalition over this. I know...

I don't just speak for myself when I say there are a lot of us who simply will not go along with this. So it's just a devastating mistake. By the way, on top of that, he's also going to lose the deportation fight because of this. Because right now he needed all the political capital he could have to turn that – you know, you got a majority support for deportations –

but the minority is very mobilized and they're out and they're protesting all around the country. He needed all of his political capital for that move. So here's what we got, the neocons win. More war abroad, bomb the world and invite the world

No matter who you vote for, you always get John McCain. It is funny. Some of the smartest evangelicals I know say that the war in Iraq is actually what killed them. And they're like, we were winning. We were on top in 04. We were a defensive marriage act and all this. But it was Bush actually who killed our agenda and any ability –

you know, do that. And then we lost, obviously, the 2008 election. I'm not sure I necessarily agree with it, but people who, if you do care about some of the domestic stuff, let's say, that Donald Trump did run on, well, you know, you got your answer as to the easiest way to destroy it. Go ahead. Well, look, through all of American history, right? This is why it's so crazy for conservatives to not be anti-war. When did they lose the culture? The big

time? When did they have the hippie sexual revolution? It was during the Vietnam War. And when did we see the rise in wokeism and progressive control of all these institutions? You think it was a coincidence that it was the administration after George W. Bush? When you launch an immoral war of aggression, you lose the moral high ground, period. You can't lecture your society. Here's some of these right-wing war hawks are going to lecture us about the

about being pro-life, about abortion being murder. Get out of here. And this is why the evangelicals lost their seat at the table for a generation, because they went all in on murdering a million people in Iraq for no reason. And so, you know, this was, it was John Quincy Adams who said, if we go around the world looking for monsters to destroy, we will become the Dicatress of the world, but we will lose our own soul. Well said. One of our best presidents. Absolutely.

Well, you know, Dave, you may feel that way, but Bill Ackman feels very different. I mean, this is

this is an important point to put B7 up on the screen, which is that I think you're right. There was a part of his coalition, including yourself and others, who thought Trump would be more, you know, more of a peace candidate and more anti-war than Kamala Harris as the alternative. But there was another part of the coalition that looks like this. That is all

thinks that we have not gone nearly far enough in terms of fighting a direct hot regime change war against Iran. And so you've got Bill Ackman here saying, the parade was great, our military is incredible, now Israel needs our help to destroy Iran's nuclear threat to the world. They say that, he says, Israel's military and air force have sufficiently degraded Iran's defenses such that this is now the lowest risk

highest probability moment to take out Iran's nuclear capability. Grave threat to us all. We should not let this great opportunity, Dave, pass us by. But Israel does not have the equipment and armaments to complete the job. We do. And it does not require boots on the ground. The war Israel has been fighting has been on behalf of all of us. Let's

help them finish the job. This is a powerful voice in the Republican coalition. It's a powerful voice within the administration. It's a powerful voice, you know, nationally in terms of achieving the policy ends and goals that they want.

You know, it's like we're never going to get the mass deportations, but can we at least deport all of these war hawks to an El Salvadorian prison? Could we just they really they really just did not. I mean, I don't know. It's testing my Israel horseshoe between you and me. Well, it's really it's tested. It's testing my my belief in libertarianism because I just when I hear this, it's like these people do not have a right to speak.

You shouldn't have a right to open your mouth. The nerve, you know, it's like they could just say these things that are so objectively untrue. Like, look, if you want to say, hey, look, I think this war in Iran isn't going to be a disaster like all the other ones were. And I think we're finally right, even though we've been wrong nine times in a row. I think we're right about this one. Like, fine, make your argument. But to say this is the lowest risk, like that this is the lowest, this is by far the highest risk of any of the terror wars, objectively. That's not like an opinion. That's just,

It might end up working out, but the downside is the riskiest by far. That is, any military expert would back that up who's not lying through their teeth would back that up. Anybody sit down and argue with me about potentially what Saddam Hussein could have done to us after we invaded or potentially what Gaddafi could have done to us versus what the mullahs can do to us.

I'm sorry. The risk is at the highest here. I hope that doesn't come true. I recognize we're already at war with this country. I know it won't look good for me, but I hope it does go well. I hope it's not the disaster that it looks like it's going to be. But don't sit here and tell me that this is the least risky one. This is by far the riskiest of all the terror wars. You know, maybe the, you know,

proxy war with Russia was riskier than this. But compared to Libya or Syria or Somalia or Afghanistan or Iraq, no comparison. This one is by far the riskiest.

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There's a good transition here to U.S. involvement. Let's go ahead and put this up there on the screen. We have our friend Scott Horton. He is reporting here. It does echo some of your own comments. And he says, sources, the U.S. will enter Israel's war with Iran, calling the White House and tell them that you do not want any part of this disastrous war. This is from sources to Scott Horton.

Obviously, Scott, a very, very smart guy, and he does, of course, some people in the administration. In a sense, though, it's really only a question of offensive capability or not. We already know the extent to which the United States has been involved now with defending Israel. We can put the next one, guys, up, C2, please. You could see Trump is obviously leaving that possibility open. He says, quote, it's possible.

The U.S. could get involved. He means offensively. He's keeping the door there. All signs do kind of point in that direction. At this point, Dave, I don't even yet know what a, quote, off-ramp could look like, save for Trump flying to Tehran himself. If you're the Iranians, why would you meet with Steve Witkoff again?

Why would you have any credibility at this point for a US negotiator? And by the way, you don't even have a negotiator to send because Israel killed him. So can we just talk here about the extent here of US involvement of the defensive capability and also of how much worse things can go? Because as you said, of course, we're already involved in this war. We're effectively a primary actor. But-

You know, there's a big difference still, as we just talked about with Bill Ackman. There's B-2 bombers. That's like level one. Then there's U.S. boots on the – or raids, you know, boots on the ground. And I think that's like level three. And then we have a prolonged occupation after the inevitable civil war and all that falls out. The straight civil war moves, the risk, and all of here to U.S. forces. So the floor is yours. Yeah, well, I mean the –

What the military was telling George W. Bush back in 2007, that we wouldn't have escalation dominance. Like the idea of that is that we can't control their next move. And so you could sit here and say, like, let's say, right, like Axios was already reporting the other day that Israel is asking us to join in because, you know, they always talk a big game about how they can do it themselves. They actually can't do anything themselves. Right.

They can't even exist by themselves. That's why they always have to say, doesn't Israel have a right to exist? Meaning you got to help us exist. So they need these bunker busters that they don't have, that they need from America. But look, even if the idea is that they're trying to sell us on, we can do this even as an air war. Like even if America does get involved. But the problem...

problem is, and this is where the escalation dominance thing comes in. It goes, okay, but then what happens when Iran hits one of our bases or one of our embassies and kills a couple hundred Americans? What's Donald Trump going to do as a result to that? And if you just game the thing out, yeah,

it's very likely ends in invasion. And then as you just like alluded to, and then once you do that, once you invade and overthrow the regime, well, what are we going to do now? Are we just going to let, we're just going to risk that the Straits of Hormuz fall into whoever's hands they do? Of course not. Then we're back to nation building. And this is how it happens every single time. And, you know, it's, it's unbelievable. Like even, um,

You know, it's even the war hawks, when they look back at the other wars, they'll be like, yeah, well, we got dragged in and then we got... But there is also a reason why we got dragged in. Like, that's how it happens. Once you break it, you're in a different position now, aren't you? And, you know, you could see, like, an example, like, in Libya, where we didn't go in there and nation build, you know, which I'm not saying it would have gone any better, but it was a complete disaster too. And so, you know, it's just...

We're playing with fire here. We're playing with the destruction of the region. We're playing with the destruction of the United States of America. I mean, who really thinks we're at a point, let's just say hypothetically, that this would turn into another Iraq or Afghanistan? How many people think we can survive another one of those? That's right.

Look at our country right now. Our country was in a much stronger position in 2003 when we first invaded Iraq or in 2001 when we first invaded Afghanistan than we are today. We didn't have the crushing debt that we have today. We didn't have the cultural and racial and political divides that we have today. We're in a much different situation.

And we're risking that for nothing just to get Benjamin Netanyahu's seventh regime change that he wants so that Israel can get away with mistreating the Palestinians forever. That's the reason? Because I'm telling you, there's no other reason. They don't have nuclear weapons. They weren't a threat to the United States of America. They were coming to the negotiating table over and over and

over again. They went out of their way to not want war. Again, I'm not saying the Iranians are a great regime. They're not. They mistreat their own people. They mistreat their women particularly. But like, okay, we didn't need to go to war with them. And if we're going to just start going to war with every regime around the world who mistreats its own people, well, I mean-

We could start with the U.S. and Israel if we wanted to do that, or we could go to war with every regime in the country, in the world. So it's just madness. No, that's exactly it. Put C6 up on the screen, guys, because I thought this was a pretty good analysis from Haaretz and gets to some of what you're saying here. It's the headline here from Amir Tabon, who we've had on the show, who's a very thoughtful guy. He says Netanyahu is counting on Trump to finish what Israel started in Iran on.

Israel doesn't necessarily have the firepower to take out each and every element of Tehran's nuclear program. Unless Iran attacks American targets, the next phase of the war is largely in Donald Trump's hands. And here's how this logic goes. Okay. Um, Israel with our full backing picks this fight. Now they say, well, we can't actually do everything we needed to do. Um,

without you. So we need you involved here. And oh, by the way, the Iranians aren't going to come back to the negotiating table. So, you know, you've got to get involved because the negotiations are dead and there's no other alternative. OK, now we're, you know, helping the Israelis strike the Iranian nuclear sites. And by the way, let's be clear, it's not like all their targets have been nuclear related, right?

The targets have had some nuclear-related elements, nuclear scientists, etc. But this has been aimed at regime change. So let's say you get your wish and you destabilize the country. Let's say they take out the supreme leader as they are projecting that they want to do. Now you're facing a potential failed state.

And you're going to just let that unfold. And like you said, the consequences with oil prices and the Straits of Hormuz, consequences with how many millions of refugees would flood out of Iran to countries all around the world. You're just going to let that unfold. But Israel isn't capable of handling that situation themselves. So again, you would need your big brother, the U.S. And so that's how you get pulled in step by step by step, where it's at every step of the way, you create a mess that's

that's impossible for Israel to manage themselves, that does directly then impact US interests and drags us in further and further and further now that that diplomatic solution has been destroyed and is completely off the table, especially with the fact that the Trump administration is bragging about lying, not only by the way to the Iranians, but to the American people about their intent to solve this through peaceful and diplomatic means.

Yeah, I mean, you know, the thing to me that's really wild as I try to like zoom out and look at this in the big picture is that, you know, like for anybody really paying attention, right?

You'd know how much the war in Iraq was about Israel. This is just a fact. It is the case, and you could look at all of the neoconservatives and all of the Likudniks in their own words would admit that for years before the war in Iraq that this is why we want to overthrow Saddam Hussein because we think it's in Israel's interest.

But back in 2002, in 2003, when they were building up the... When they were beating the war drums and building the propaganda for it, they still had a very controlled media environment in the old legacy corporate media. And so what the American people were told...

was that Saddam Hussein was in on 9/11 and he has weapons of mass destruction. And look, in a post 9/11 world, we just can't let that be. You can't have an Arab leader with nukes who's friends with Osama bin Laden 'cause he could give it to him and they could nuke Kansas and okay,

we all know looking back at that, that that was all a, you know, a mountain of lies, but at least you could see where that was like propaganda that could maybe get some soccer mom in Kansas to go, all right, I guess I support the war. Now this is really the only one where it's just, there is no propaganda around it. It's just, I mean, there is, but like it's nakedly, this is, we're fighting a war for Israel here. And it,

it's amazing that, you know, for all of the people who hyperventilate about the rise of antisemitism and how awful it is that Jewish students feel unsafe at some college in America, I mean, like, what do you, what do you,

think this is going to do to this country? What do you think is going to happen with anti-Semitism now? You see that going up or down when we nakedly enter an aggressive war of choice on behalf of this country that's already gotten us into six.

That's already had like, how many are we expected to enter to? We've given them tens of billions of dollars, all of our intelligence, all of our weapons. We allow them to do whatever they want to their poor neighbors. We want, we literally watch on our phones as their neighbors, babies scream as they're crushed under buildings, dying the most gruesome deaths. And yet now we're required to enter another war for them. There's just, I mean, it's such an outrage. And, um,

Man, it just seems so incredibly short-sighted. And it's just going to lead to nothing good. Nope, it is certainly not. But as usual, we always appreciate you, Dave, a voice for many who feel voiceless in a crazy moment like this. Yeah, Dave, I appreciate you being principled and your character. It's not easy to be like, hey, I was just wrong about this. So really huge respect for that. And always great to talk to you and get your insights.

Good to see you, man. Thanks, guys. Always great to talk to you guys. Appreciate you having me. This is Jenny Garth from I Do Part Two. Can't afford Ozempic? Try Wagovi from Future Health. Just $199 and FDA approved for weight loss. No insurance or tricky syringes needed. Just results. Visit futurehealth.com. That's future without the E. And start losing weight this week. Future Health Weight Loss.

Data based on independent studies sponsored by Future Health. Future Health is not a healthcare services provider. Meds are prescribed at provider's discretion. Hi, I'm Danielle Fishel from Podmeets World. So for my two boys, I got Samsung Galaxy Watch for Kids. And I'm not saying I'm kind of jealous of my kid's tech. I'm saying I am definitely jealous of my child's tech.

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