6/19/25: Ted Cruz Dog Walked By Tucker, Theo Von Warns Of Bibi, Majority Support Iran War, Regime Change Ignorance
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Hey guys, Sagar and Crystal here. Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election, and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show. This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else. So if that is something that's important to you, please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today, and you'll get access to our

full shows, unedited, ad-free, and all put together for you every morning in your inbox. We need your help to build the future of independent news media, and we hope to see you at BreakingPoints.com. All right, let's turn now to the full Tucker Carlson, Ted Cruz interview. I gotta tell you, this is probably one of, maybe one of the top five moments of my life was watching Ted Cruz get owned completely into the sun. This clip has been more viral than any news clip that I have seen in a long time.

I'm talking about left, right, center. It's everywhere. Yeah, and I have to say, listen, I understand why the right loves this guy. It's fun when he's on your side. This was a treat to watch, I have to say, the whole thing. I'm glad to have you with us, at least for a moment. There's a reason he's been a generational talent for 30 years. Let's start, though. There are several moments of this which I think are really important.

First and foremost is actually getting to the core of Ted Cruz's ideology, of his explanations, and of the vicious tactics that a lot of people who are Israel supporters use to shut down the debate around striking Iran. First and foremost is anti-Semitism. Now, you're going to watch here in this clip where Ted Cruz says that one of his pledges, sworn pledges when entering the United States Senate, is to

It was to be the main defender of the state of Israel and then also accused Tucker Carlson at the same time of saying he is obsessed with Israel. Every accusation is a confession. Let's take a listen. It's just interesting because what you're now describing in a very defensive way, I will say, is –

foreign influence over our politics. No. And you began, and it's so transparently obvious to everybody. I don't know why you would be embarrassed of it. You've said that you are sincerely for Israel. I believe you. I don't think you have some weird agenda. You seem to be sincere. By the way, Tucker, it's a very weird thing

The obsession with Israel. When we're talking about foreign countries, you're not talking about Chinese. You're not talking about Japanese. You're not talking about the Brits. You're not talking about the French. The question, what about the Jews? What about the Jews? Oh, I'm an anti-Semite now. Senator, you're asking the questions, Tucker. You just told me. You're asking, why are the Jews controlling our foreign policy? That's what you just asked. Senator, I am hardly saying that. And I have many- That is exactly what you just said. Well, actually, I can speak for myself and tell you what I am saying. Good, good.

On behalf, not simply of myself, but on my many Jewish friends who would have the same questions, which is to what extent. And it's interesting you're trying to derail my questions by calling me an anti-Semite, which you are. I did not. Of course you are. And rather than be honorable enough to say it right to my face, you are in a sleazy feline way implying it or just asking questions about the Jews. I'm not asking questions about the Jews.

I have there's nothing to do with Jews or Judaism. It has to do with a foreign government. Isn't Israel controlling our foreign policy? That's not about the Jews. You said I'm asking you. You're the one that just called me, I think, a sleazy feline. So let's be clear. It's easy to imply that I'm an anti-Semite, which you just did. No, I just when I'm asking you're asking you answer it. Give me another reason. If you're not an anti-Semite, give me another reason. I want the obsession is Israel.

I am in no sense obsessed with Israel. We are on the brink of war with Iran. And so these are valid questions. But you're not asking about Iran or the ISL. If I can finish, you...

asked me why I'm obsessed with Israel. Yep. Three minutes after telling me that when you first ran for Congress, you elucidated one of your main goals, which is to defend Israel. Yes. And I'm the one who's obsessed with Israel. I don't see a lawmaker's job as defending the interests of a foreign government, period. Any government, including the ones that my ancestors come from. So that's my position. That does not make me an anti-Semite. And shame on you for suggesting otherwise. And I mean that.

Yeah, that is exactly... That is how that should be handled, is that this guy says, one of my sworn pledges is to enter the United States Senate and be a sworn defender of the state of Israel. Be the strongest defender of the state of Israel. And then says...

you are obsessed with Israel. You know why we're not talking about the UK? Look, if the UK wants to drag us into some shitty war, I'll talk about the UK all day long. If Japan wants to drag us into some shitty war, I'll talk about that all day long. Well, and he says, why aren't you talking about Iran and the Mullahs? Because we're not giving them, we're not like...

like giving them the bombs. We're talking about the country that we send billions of dollars to every year that has helped persuade our president, and again, he's a willing participant, to get into an insane war. Like, of course, we're going to talk about that. And I love that he calls him out on how he's just trying to like suggest it. Like,

Fucking man up and say it to my face then. I totally agree. And I cannot tell you how many times, I remember Dean Phillips doing this in particular when I interviewed him, where, yeah, it's just, well, why are you so interested in the Jews? Yes. First of all, no one said anything about the Jews. We're talking about a foreign government. And actually, thank you very much, it's quite anti-Semitic to conflate every Jew with this foreign

government if you want to talk about actual anti-Semitism. So it felt so good to see him call out his sleazy feline suggestion here instead of just, listen, if you want to call me an anti-Semite, do it. Yeah. Say it with your chest. Israel is both a multi-ethnic, incredible democracy, or it's a Jewish state. And it's like, well, which is it? Actually, 25% of your own population. Oh yeah. By the way, I actually know something about population. 25% of that population is not Jewish. All right. And they brag about that all day long, right? They're like, oh, look,

Yeah, and they're being locked out of Bob's Shelter as we speak. Yeah, but that's what they hold up. It's a multi-ethnic democracy. They got better rights here than they do in any other country in the world. It's like, well, you're just talking about the Jews, right? It's like you can't have it both ways. And I was so glad to see this, like, defenestration.

on the anti-Semitism question because they are the ones who use the anti-Semitic tropes. You can't talk about the state of Israel without being then an anti-Semite yourself. And look, this is part of a years-long campaign, and especially post-October 7th, to conflate Zionism and Judaism itself with the state, which, by the way, is anti-Semitic. Remember Joe Biden, not a Jew in the world would be safe if the state of Israel did not exist. There are more Jews living in America,

Okay? There's a huge Jewish population in America. There's no place that is more unsafe for Jews than Israel. Yeah, at this point, right? In terms of being bombed in the middle of the street. Yeah, would you rather live in New York City or would you rather live in Tel Aviv right now? All right, let's get to AIPAC then.

because this was also an incredible moment because Tucker asks Ted Cruz whether AIPAC is a foreign lobby and why it's not required to be registered as such. And here you see Ted Cruz twist himself into knots about AIPAC. Let's take a listen. Well, I don't think I'm obsessed with this. Okay, but I think a lot of people are. And like the question, Israel spies on us. Well, so does every other country. Why are you mad at Israel? I guess, no, no, no, I'm just,

I'm hardly the one who's... I've never taken money from the Israel lobby. Have you? Taken money from the Israel... From AIPAC. So AIPAC raises a lot of money for me, but it's actually a misnomer because the people who raise money are individuals. So it's not the PAC itself, but they're individual members who believe in the American-Israeli friendship and relationship. Is the AIPAC a foreign lobby? No, it's an American lobby. It's the... AIPAC stands for the America-Israeli Political Action Committee. What is it lobby for? So...

to be honest, not a whole lot effectively. Listen, I came into Congress 13 years ago with the stated intention of being the leading defender of Israel in the United States Senate. I've worked every day to do that. AIPAC, a lot of times,

AIPAC, I wish were much more effective. Like there are folks online who are in the fever swamp of terrified of AIPAC. I'm not terrified of AIPAC at all. You're the one who seems a little uncomfortable when I'm asking. No, I'm not uncomfortable at all. I'm just asking what AIPAC does. My understanding, having known a lot of people who want AIPAC, is that it lobbies on behalf of the Israeli government. Wrong.

Oh, actually, and by the way, you want some evidence of that? Can we put C6, please, here up on the screen? Here we have a story from our friend David Dayen just, you know, from yesterday. Ryan's on that byline. And Ryan Grimm is on that byline as well. AIPAC demands Democrats, quote, stand with Israel. Okay.

I don't know how much evidence that I need to shove in your face to show literal direct coordination between AIPAC and the state of Israel, including photos post-October 7th showing AIPAC members in the same room as Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel or the number of conferences that they hold here in Washington, D.C. and across the United States on every college campus in America to basically turn U.S. citizens into foreign lobbyists. And by the way, finance.

OK, but then just be registered under the law. Yeah, which is exactly the point that Tucker makes. I know lots of people who lobby for foreign currencies like I'm related to some of them. I think his brother. They have to register. Right. Why doesn't APAC? And then he asked Ted Cruz a really simple question, like because Ted Cruz tries to, oh, well, they're not just representing what the Netanyahu government wants. He's like, OK, give me an example. One example. Of course, he can't do it.

Oh, well, I have to go back. Yeah, because there isn't one. Because there isn't one. Because whatever it is that the current Israeli government, which has been led by Benjamin Netanyahu for quite a while now, you know, off and on for decades at this point, whatever they want, that's what AIPAC signs up for. How is that not foreign lobbying? Exactly. There you go. Now let's get to my personal favorite.

Now, look, I'm going to put my cards on the table. I'm an atheist. So any time people start citing scripture to justify their behavior, like in a national context, I'm getting pretty skeptical. But this shit, I mean, look, I grew up around these people, so I guess I shouldn't be surprised. But Tucker asked Ted Cruz why he supports Israel. He says two reasons. First—

And he starts to cite the Bible. And not just citing the Bible, there's this school, I'm trying to get up to speed on this, so Christians, I apologize, which I believe is called dispensationalism, which is basically like taking the Bible's

Words, applying them is to be literally true. And in particular here, Israel, as it's mentioned in the Bible, is conflating that with the actual nation state of Israel created in 1948. So watch here, Ted Cruz cite the Bible, then can't even quote which verse of the Bible that he is saying. And for the primary reason that he supports the state of Israel, let's take a listen. Growing up in Sunday school, I was taught from the Bible.

Those who bless Israel will be blessed and those who curse Israel will be cursed. And from my perspective, I want to be on the blessing side of things. Of those who bless the government of Israel? Those who bless Israel is what it says. It doesn't say the government of, it says the nation of Israel.

So that's in the Bible. As a Christian, I believe that. Where is that? I can find it to you. I don't have the scripture off the tip of my, you pull out the phone and use the Google. It's in Genesis. So you're quoting a Bible phrase. You don't have context for it. You don't know where in the Bible it is, but that's like your theology? I'm confused. What does that even mean? Tucker. I'm a Christian. I want to know what you're talking about. Okay.

Where does my support for Israel come from? Number one, because biblically we are commanded to support Israel. But number two— Hold on. No, no, no. Hold on. You're a senator, and now you're throwing out theology, and I am a Christian, and I am allowed to weigh in on this.

We are commanded as Christians to support the government of Israel? We are commanded to support Israel. What does that mean, Israel? We're told those who bless Israel will be blessed. Hold on. Define Israel. This is important. Are you kidding? This is a majority Christian country. Define Israel? Do you not know what Israel is? That would be the country you'd ask, like,

49 questions about. So that's what Genesis, that's what God is talking about. The nation of Israel, yes. So is that the current borders, the current leadership? He's talking about the political entity called Israel? He's talking about the nation of Israel. Yeah, nations exist and he's discussing a nation. A nation was the people of Israel. Is the nation God's referring to in Genesis, is that the same as the country run by Benjamin Netanyahu right now? Yes, yes. It is, okay. And by the way, it's not run by Benjamin Netanyahu as a dictator. It's a democratic country that elected. He's the dictator.

prime minister. But just like, you know, America is the country run by Donald Trump. No, actually, the American people elected Donald Trump. The same principle is there. This is silly. I'm talking about the political entity of modern Israel. Yes, and that is Israel. You believe that's what God was talking about in Genesis. I do. But that country's existed since when? For thousands of years. Now, there was a time when it didn't exist, and then it was recreated just over 70 years ago. But I'm saying, I think most people understand

that line in Genesis to refer to the Jewish people, God's chosen people. That's not what it says. I mean, this is batshit crazy. I mean, I'm just going to remind people of Glenn Greenwald's joke here on our show. We think Iran is a theocracy? What? All right. Give me some mullah if this is the shit that's running my country. And here's the thing is like it's funny, but it's –

No, it's real. It's serious. It's deadly serious. Go back to that text that Mike Huckabee sent to Trump that Trump then publicized.

The number of people in this government, including our ambassador to Israel and our secretary of defense, who have this like end times theology around this apparently – who knows how many senators and members of Congress share this view as preposterous and absurd and disturbing as it is offered by Ted Cruz that you are commanded as a Christian to do what Bibi Netanyahu wants you to do. That's his position. Okay? Okay.

Then you couple that with the absolute religious zealot psychos that command so much power in Netanyahu's government. And you put that together with very clear indications that Trump himself has some sort of messiah complex after, you know, narrowly escaping death in Butler, Pennsylvania. As if this isn't terrifying enough,

The fact that you think that you have people involved, the most powerful people involved, who think they are commanded by the Bible or divinely destined to effectuate some outcome here, that shit terrifies me. Oh, me too. And so—

I know the Christians went in on what specifically that passage in the Bible is. I hear from Grok that it most commonly, Israel refers to the collective descendants of Jacob's 12 sons, not the freaking nation state that was created in 1948 arbitrarily, by the way, by the United States of America. I'll let

them do that. I just object to any biblical or religious text being used to justify wars or foreign policy or national policy whatsoever. That is where I get off, regardless of how you want to interpret any particular biblical line. Apparently in this dispensationalism and

end times, eschatology, like these are, look, again, I am not qualified to talk about this and it's just not even really worth it. I would just look at it and be like, this is preposterous. Like you have a United States Senator here. I mean, you know, this is, look, I guess to go all religious and 2006 atheist. So what did Christians do in 1947 before Israel existed? Like who were they commanded to, you know, to support? Like what the fuck?

I can't even get my mind around this stuff. But you know, this maybe is, I don't know. I know they don't listen, but I want people to know in Israel, they're laughing at you. The secular Jews who make up a huge portion of Israeli society, they think you're kooks and they think you're crazy. The secular, highly educated Jews who live in New York and Los Angeles and Philadelphia or whatever, they think

they look at you like, you know, they're liberal Democrats. They think this is gross and weird. And yet, you know, the only thing they're really using you for is your biblical interpretation to support a foreign state. When I went to Israel, I think 90% of the people on my plane were people like this, you know, from,

evangelical churches. And if you have ever been to Jerusalem, I mean, you know, it's full on like earpiece in, pastor in the front and they go to the cliff or wherever where the apocalypse is gonna, I've seen this stuff with my own eyes.

And they believe it. They think it's serious. And when they're there, by the way, the Israeli government uses them as pawns for American support. Now, look, they're not going to listen because, you know, they're listening to their churches and all this other. But the one thing I would at least ask is if you're religious and you have pride in your own beliefs, shouldn't you wonder if you're being taken advantage of?

I promise you, I've seen, I've met these people. They think you're a joke. They're laughing at you and using you as a tool to support their own country and their foreign policy. That's really degrading in my opinion. I mean, just what kind of a religion would command you to support, to endlessly support with no criticism, a country that is actively doing a genocide? Like-

Because that is a religion you should not want to have anything to do with. That's the real command. But it is. I mean, at this point, there's really no dispute. You ask any legitimate...

scholar of genocide around the world. Go look at what's going on in Gaza. See, I mean, we haven't even been able to cover the fact that these aid massacres are still going on day after day, where they lure in innocent Palestinians and then desperate, hungry, starving Palestinians and then murder them as they try to seek some basic nourishment. Your God tells you to support that? That

Uh-uh. You got to convert to some other religion if that's what's commanded because that is monstrously, outrageously grotesque. And that is where religious zealotry, I'm sorry, is such a cancer. It is such a cancer because then you think,

that you have some sort of divine right and commandment to commit horrific atrocities and turn your brain off because God commanded you to? I mean, there's a reason why, if you look throughout history, so many of the worst crimes and atrocities are committed in the name of some sort of outrageous religious fanaticism. And that is one of the elements here that is deadly serious. And, you know, I really appreciate, actually, this exchange with Tucker because I'm not a Christian. He is.

So for him to be in there and for Candace Owens to be out there also, I saw her doing her explanation saying, no, this is not what the biblical text means. And it is a grotesque absurdity for you to interpret it that your commandment as a Christian is to endlessly support whatever the policy of Bibi Netanyahu is like total insanity. Yeah, whatever.

I mean, again, look, they're not going to listen. They probably don't even watch the show. They're watching Glenn Beck or Rush Limbaugh or whatever. So good luck to you. You want to continue to be a tool of a foreign government? I mean, again, they're laughing their asses off at you. I can promise. I've seen it inside of that country. But whatever. It's your choice. It's a free country. Last thing here, a clip that we'll show everybody is about Donald Trump and the meaning of America first, this back and forth between Tucker and Ted Cruz. Let's take a listen. You engage in reckless rhetoric.

with no facts. And to be clear, I'm not calling for the overthrow of a government. You are. You put out a newsletter attacking Donald Trump and calling him complicit. I've never attacked Donald Trump. Yes, you have. And by the way, I campaigned for Donald Trump. OK, yes. This is like after anti-Semitism, this is the last refuge. You're an anti-Semite and you hate Trump. OK, I love Trump. I will read. You put out a whole newsletter saying Trump has abandoned America first. And here's what Trump said in response.

Well, considering that I'm the one that developed America first and considering that the term wasn't used until I came along, I think I'm the one who decides that for those people who say they want peace. You can't have peace if Iran has a nuclear weapon. So for all of those wonderful people who don't want to do anything about Iran having a nuclear weapon, that's not peace. That was directed at you. Man, this is you got me.

No, I'm just saying. Look, my views, look, I like Trump. I campaign for Trump. I know Trump. I talked to him last night. I'm not against Trump, and you know that. But you're against his foreign policy.

So, yeah, look, that's a very revealing exchange. And look, Ted Cruz is correct. Trump does operationally get to decide. Yeah, this is the one point he got against Tucker, to be honest with you. Because it's a political point and it's one which is Trumpian. But, you know, again, I'm not going to sit here and just let the record, you know, say that Donald Trump gets to define America first at an actual level when it's a movement which has existed since the 1920s. And, you know, this is preposterous.

Operationally, it may be true. And that's actually a separate question. But that's the part that really bugs me is the way that it's being weaponized in that form. And also, you know, look, there are at least some MAGA folks out there who probably did vote for Donald Trump because he's anti-war or appeared anti-war, believed he was anti-war.

maybe not all of them, but a sizable percentage, 10, 15, 20%. Sure, I'm claiming it as a majority, but what's wrong with them for protesting against us and say, "Hey, this is not what I believed." A lot of Biden supporters got upset at Biden over Israel. They're like, "Hey, that's not what I thought."

was going to happen. A lot of George W. Bush supporters got mad at him over the war in Iraq. It's perfectly fine, normal, and democratic, small d, you know, to protest even when, if somebody is doing something, even if you did vote for them, that you don't support or you don't like because it doesn't conflict with the understanding of what you had when you went to the battle. Well, what you're talking about is a normal functioning political system, which we do not have.

And I mean, that's the sad truth is like, you know, whether or not Tucker called Trump to apologize, it doesn't really matter if it's true unless he actually comes out and is like, no, I didn't do that. That's not what happened because then that just becomes facts and reality because Trump says that it is, you know,

If you listen to the entire Tucker versus Ted debate, if you listen to the entirety of I listen both to Tucker on with Steve Bannon, Steve Bannon on with Tucker, I listen to all of those. And the whole effort, and you hear this in Charlie Kirk's rhetoric as well, Marjorie Taylor Greene's rhetoric as well, is to say this is the true representation of what Trump really wants.

And to the extent that he's not pursuing this path, which is the most true to his intentions, beliefs, and ambitions, it's because he's being tricked by this person or that person or the deep state or the neocons or whatever. That's where the battle is fought because...

Tucker knows, and if they didn't know, Trump demonstrated that when he went after Tucker and said he was kooky and, you know, said he needs to go get a television network because basically he's a has-been. They know that the minute that they actually go against Trump, if you do anything other than—

signal in advance that at the end of the day, you're going to 100% bend the knee, then you're out. Then you become Liz Cheney, you become Adam Kinzinger, you become Justin Amash, you become any number of the senators or members of Congress who are no longer senators or members of Congress who've been consigned to the dustbin of history. You are excised from the movement and that's it. Your influence is over. Whatever perks you get being in the Trump world and the Trump circle and having access to the president and all that stuff, it's done. It's

So that's why they fight on that turf of, well, I am the true representation of what Trump in his all-knowing brilliance, what he really wants, which is why Steve Bannon is now running around telling Financial Times and other outlets to like, listen, at the end of the day, if he has more intelligence than we do, then we're going to go along. It's why when Bannon was out criticizing Elon at the beginning and Trump told him, shut up.

He did until Elon was persona non grata and then he went back to it. That's the way that this works. That's why Charlie Kirk has changed his tune. And Charlie Kirk was never critical of Trump, but he got a call from the White House saying, hey, tone it down. And he said, yes, sir. No problem at all. Look, they're all the same and it's operational. It's the only way that you maintain your access and your ability. And that's the problem of trying to straddle these two worlds. You can be honest and you could say what you think like me, but I can tell you my phone ain't ringing off the hook.

now. My phone calls are going one way and there's not a lot of incoming and there's a lot of screw you that is happening right now. But that's the world. It is what it is. And it's very unfortunate. But I also think it's important to show people and to even tell people, you know, from my perspective of that is the only way that you can maintain influence within the system. It's really unfortunate.

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I guess there is a second way, though, actually, and this is a good transition because we're now going to talk about Theo Vaughn, is sometimes you become like this cultural and you become a big enough figure that some of the things that you say become something that the White House or others need to respond to. And so that's why when I saw this clip here of Theo Vaughn, somebody who, I don't know if he voted for Trump. I don't know if he's ever said he attended his inauguration and he's had on. He was hanging out with Ivanka and Jared down in Mar-a-Lago not that long ago. Jared and Ivanka. Just had

Had J.D. Vance on. Had J.D. Vance on, had J.D. Vance on before previously on the campaign, the first major podcaster to have on, Donald Trump. So, you know, he's also somebody, though, who is not, has been willing to at least speak out against Israel and its campaign in Gaza. But here you have a very, very interesting message, like direct to camera, pretty rare in my opinion, from Theo on political events, speaking out against a war with Iran.

Let's take a listen. Trying to get us into a war with Iran or not, America, if Israel is trying to. I don't trust the Israel leader at all. I don't believe anything that guy says. And I don't think that our soldiers should have to go and defend stuff that they start. I'm not a soldier, so I'm obviously speaking out of turn. I'm not even brave enough to serve. So there's that element.

But that is kind of how I feel, I guess. And so it's like, yeah, when do I speak? When do I say that? You know, because it feels like you're trying to push Trump to go do that. And it's like, who makes that choice? Does he make that choice? And then what do we get? You know, what's the win for us? We're just involved in some other thing while we have suffering here at home. Yeah.

So maybe something like that is like, yeah, do I have, should I even speak up because I'm not in service? Service men and women may be like, we want to, we'll do it, you know, and that's their commitment and their job. Uh, but yeah, I just, I don't know. That guy really scares me and, and I don't know why we support them. I don't understand that. I wish they would really give us a better explanation, you know, especially after the massacres in Gaza. Um,

I don't understand. I do not understand that. And some people say, well, you don't know enough about it. That may and I may not. But it's like, dude, can I still speak about it? Can I speak about how I feel about it?

Serious as it gets on the Theo Pond Show. But look, I mean, I appreciate him doing it. And because, look, you know, there was so much and I talked about this yesterday, Crystal, and this is even in the context of our own show. The White House made a huge deal about alternative media and podcasts, right? Yeah. All right. Well, guess what? You know, we literally had either our second or our first biggest day ever this week, ever.

in terms of our analytics. Why? Because we're providing content which is both newsy and it is obviously, a lot of it's opinionated and against the war. And anti-war content literally could not be bigger right now. So if they care so much about YouTube and about anti-war content, I'm sure Kyle's channel is blowing the hell up. You can go and you can look at the YouTube views on

any major content creator who's political, who's speaking out against the war, I'd be willing to bet that they're all seeing similar rise. And so they cared so much about, oh, the views of the bros and the podcast and all this other stuff. It's like, well, pay attention. Pay attention right now. Dave Smith, right? You guys made a big deal about him. It's like, well, what happened whenever he speaks out against you? Really, it's only cable news and the political establishment which is really just willing to go along with this. People who are not connected to the system think this is very, very messed up what's happening.

right now. But we all know what Trump is watching. Sure. We all know what Trump is watching. But you're making a case for influence on Trump. I'm saying, though, that if in some way, like,

Again, they claim to have the pulse of the American people then at that time. Well, here's the pulse. I'm not saying we're representative of the whole country. Representative of some of the country, a decent amount of our audience voted for Trump. I know that. So, well, a lot of them don't support this war. You should probably take that into account. Here's what I would say is, listen, I think—

I think Trump is 100% correct that his base, his movement, they're going to be along for the ride. And also, listen, I'm sorry, when you poll the Republican base, they are just more pro-war than the Democratic base. That's just reality. They always have been. They still are, even as there's been some erosion in that direction. And, you know, there was obviously, like, it was important for Trump politically in 2016 when he finally speaks the truth about the Iraq war. And I think this time around, you know,

It wasn't that people perceived him as anti-war that solidified his support with the base. The base was going to be there no matter what. It's independence. And that's who, you know, I think will be unhappy. I think independence will – they may at the beginning actually support the war. I don't know because there's just – that's –

You would be hard-pressed to find a war that the U.S. got into that didn't enjoy some level of public support, unfortunately, over the course of my lifetime. But I think Theo Vaughn and those sorts of voices matter for independence. I will also say, though, just in terms of his framing there, it's –

so convenient for Trump that it's not him, it's he's getting pulled in, no, it's the Israelis, and who's really making the decisions here, and I don't trust that guy being Netanyahu. Like, I just... It's very convenient. It's not even a critique of Trump. It's like, oh, these nefarious forces are pulling us into war, which is also, like I said, it's just...

It's a convenient and inaccurate narrative. Maybe I'm expecting too much from Theo Vaughn. I was going to say, I think you are. Like I said, it is a way to justify what is already a horror show from Trump, already a horror show from Trump.

It's a way to justify the things that already should be unacceptable. And people with character like Dave Smith have already said, that's it. Like already, even without whether we get directly offensively or have boots on the ground or actively put up the mission accomplished banner,

I'm done. I'm out. He should be impeached already for what he's doing. Like that is the actual like principled, accurate read of where you are. If what you actually cared about was keeping the station out of. I would say with Theo and with the look, one of the things I actually detected a lot, and I'm sure you saw this is when he's like, I'm not sure if I'm allowed to speak about it. This is the concern trolling around expertise and really about people being willing to speak out on war. And he's like, I don't know if I know enough about it because what happened?

Theo had Candace Owens and I forget who else on the show who spoke out against Israel. And what do you think 98% of his phone was from some of the people who are pro-Israel? You don't know nearly enough to be able to comment on this. Like, how dare you say the word genocide to the vice president of the United States? Because that's what they do is they'll be like, oh, you're not qualified enough or whatever.

and knowledgeable enough to be an involved actor. So I actually detected like a lot of discomfort from him like having to speak about this issue. And ultimately, I mean, I think what's penetrated his conscience is about the Israeli military action in Gaza, which kind of informs a lot of his thoughts here. So anyway, I cut him and many others much, much bigger break. I mean, one of the reasons why you shouldn't hold Dave and Theo to the same standard is like Dave is, you know, incredibly knowledgeable.

Well, and Dave has an ideology. Yeah, I was going to say Dave is an ideological libertarian anti-war actor. He's thought deeply about his own politics, about where things are going to go. I mean, this is just like, I don't know. I think take what you can get because for me, it's a barometer of where things are and what is important. Have you ever thought about going voiceover? I'm Hope Woodard, a comedian, creator, and seeker of male validation.

To most people, I'm the girl behind VoiceOver, the movement that exploded in 2024. VoiceOver is about understanding yourself outside of sex and relationships. It's more than personal. It's political, it's societal, and at times, it's far from what I originally intended it to be.

These days, I'm interested in expanding what it means to be voiceover to make it customizable for anyone who feels the need to explore their relationship to relationships.

I'm talking to a lot of people who will help us think about how we love each other. It's a very, very normal experience to have times where a relationship is prioritizing other parts of that relationship that aren't being naked together. How we love our family. I've spent a lifetime trying to get my mother to love me, but the price is too high. And how we love ourselves. Singleness is not a waiting room. You are actually at the party right now. Let me hear it. No.

Listen to VoiceOver on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Camp Shane, one of America's longest-running weight loss camps for kids, promised extraordinary results. Campers who began the summer in heavy bodies were often unrecognizable when they left. In a society obsessed with being thin, it seemed like a miracle solution. But behind Camp Shane's facade of happy, transformed children was a dark underworld of sinister secrets.

Kids were being pushed to their physical and emotional limits as the family that owned Shane turned a blind eye. Nothing about that camp was right. It was really actually like a horror movie. In this eight-episode series, we're unpacking and investigating stories of mistreatment and reexamining the culture of fatphobia that enabled a flawed system to continue for so long.

You can listen to all episodes of Camp Shame one week early and totally ad-free on iHeart True Crime Plus. So don't wait. Head to Apple Podcasts and subscribe today.

I came out because I literally had a contract ripped up in front of me. On a recent episode of Good Game with Sarah Spain, I spotlighted an inspiring out athlete, pro golfer Mel Reid. I think everyone's story is different. I've been very lucky that I've got a very supportive family who literally don't care. It's a part of me. I'm certainly not ashamed of it. And I think that there should be more representation in it.

To hear this and more on identity, inclusivity, and the power of being seen, listen to Good Game with Sarah Spain, an iHeart Women's Sports production in partnership with Deep Blue Sports and Entertainment on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Brought to you by Novartis, founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports Network.

Shall we move on to the polling? Because this is the biggest black pill that we can possibly take. And so, yes, as I might say, it is true. YouTube and many other places with big online audiences, anti-war content is doing very well. But unfortunately, that is not what the vast majority and particularly the voting boomer base of this country is watching. They're watching cable news.

And over on cable news, it is just a mainline of pro-war propaganda. And even worse, you are just watching the framing by the Trump administration be accepted here by a lot of the American people. Here's CNN's Harry Enten. We got to tell everybody the truth. The truth is, is that if Trump does decide to strike Iran, it will probably be pretty popular. Let's take a listen. And overall, I feel like there's more support for Donald Trump's positions than is comically acknowledged. Oppose Iran getting a nuclear weapon.

I mean, look at this. 79% of adults agree on that. They agree with Donald Trump. Iran cannot get a nuclear weapon. 83% of Republicans, 79% of independents, 79% of Democrats. When you get 79% of Democrats and 83% of Republicans agreeing on anything, you know that that position is the very clear majority in this country. And so the American public is with Donald Trump. They definitely oppose Iran getting nuclear weapons.

France trying to make a nuclear weapon. Look at this. Overall, you get the slight plurality. I mean, it's within the margin, but the slight plurality of Americans actually favor U.S. airstrikes compared to 47 percent opposing it.

There you go. And he saw the Republican numbers there. Republican number is 70%. I mean, I guess I could take it to the bank that there's 30% of people out there. But let's all be honest. Look, there is some confounding stuff. And I'll also say this about America. Americans are fickle, right? So at the very beginning, do you remember what the numbers were on Ukraine? It was like 90-10. Oh, yeah.

It was literally 9 to 10. I will pay higher gas prices. I will suffer. I will sacrifice. Yeah. How'd that work out for you? Huh? Huh? Yeah. I didn't want to say I told you so, but I guess I'm going to do it. But that's part of what I guess, you know, reading a book can get you. This is the problem, though. I've read enough to say the vast majority of the American people supported the war in Vietnam. Eventually, everybody always has retrograde amnesia. No, I never supported it.

OK, the vast majority of the American people supported the war in Vietnam up until 1968 and actually even well into the 1970s. Well, the vast majority of the American people supported the war in Iraq. The vast majority of the American people supported the Libyan intervention in 2011. The vast majority of the American people wanted to pick a good side in Syria. They supported the strikes on Iraq.

you know, on the Assad regime. If you were to poll people and be like, hey, do you think it's worth taking out North Korea's nuclear weapon in 2017? Most people are going to say yes. Now, what I always say is that if you ask them to consider the consequences, that's when things usually change a little bit.

But even then, let's all be honest. - We're bad at predicting the consequences. Like people are bad at projecting into the future, oh, 10 steps down the road, this is gonna go poorly. - And look, I get it, it's difficult because it requires a level of critical thinking that the vast majority of people don't want. And I'm not putting people down. Most people are living their lives and they don't wanna think very much about the news or war

whatever. Now, I would ask you to because it does, of course, affect your gas prices and the national debt and whether we have the social programs and ability as we all learned from the war in Iraq, but you do continue to live your life. Let's go to put the economist poll up here, at least some good news, I think, for me. Most Americans think that the US military, quote, should not get involved in the conflict between Israel and Iraq.

So here they say, do you think the U.S. military should get involved in the conflict? The reason why I think that's really important is that doesn't just say strike. It says involved in the conflict. Here's what I noticed. It doesn't say anything about nuclear weapons. Yes. And this is why the most important thing that you can impress upon people is this is not about nuclear weapons. Because the moment, let's say we ask the public, do you support a regime change war in Iran? Yeah.

I guarantee you the result of that would be overwhelmingly no. But let me tell you, if you were listening to any cable news network, if you are listening, you know, and some independent media too, the question is, and this is what Trump wants it to be, should Iran have a nuke or not? That is not the question. That is not the appropriate framing. That is not what this is about. Iran was not pursuing a nuclear weapon. In fact, if you don't want Iran to have a nuclear weapon, you should be outraged that

This bombing blew up the potential for successful diplomatic negotiations to make sure that Iran does not get a nuclear weapon because the logic is much more straightforward now for Iran to race to a bomb, as we were discussing before. So these polls that have come out so far are all over the place, and it is the most significant

significant indicator I have ever seen of how important it is to get the narrative and the information right and for people to understand what is really going on here. Because yes, if you ask the American people, hey, should we do some limited strikes to make sure Iran doesn't have a bomb? Yeah, a majority is going to say, yes, I agree, which is why Trump is consistently saying they can't have a bomb, they can't have a bomb, they can't have a bomb. That's why that's his line, because he knows that is solid political ground. The moment people realize that's not what this is about,

this is about another disastrous regime change war, then the politics completely change and completely shift. And so, again, that's why the most important thing that you can impress upon people is what this is really about and that the idea of the nukes is fake, invented, there is no evidence to support it, and that is a pretext

to obscure the real goal of what's going on here. Let's also put this Washington Post stuff on the screen because this gives you a very, very clear picture about how this all looks as well in terms of the propaganda and in terms of the framing. Can we put that up, please, guys? This new Washington Post element that we have, they ask, at this time, would you support or oppose the U.S. military launching airstrikes against Iran over its nuclear program? You've got 25% support, 30% unsure, 45% opposed. But you can still see that that

unsure number is pretty big. So they say 47% of Republicans, they already support it. Okay. 29% unsure. So that's a vast majority or their support or unsure. Only 24% oppose. Democrats, kind of the opposite since it's a bit more partisan. But this gives me a little hope here with the independent figure. 20% support, 36% unsure, 44% say that they oppose. We're

Military and veteran household is actually a little bit higher there for support. There's still some strong opposed numbers, and same with non-military. But the point is, is that you can still see a significant amount of support here amongst the Republican Party already, as long as you sell it to them about nukes. And this is why people who want nuance or have warnings always lose, is because they're

We have to start from disproving the allegation and then warning about 40th order consequences. Now, I wish, though, that we would have enough experience at this point that I could just say Libya and someone would be like, oh, yeah, that's a good point. Right. You know, it's just about striking air defense in Libya. Nothing else.

else, guys, no boots on the ground. Oh, except what? Over 1 million people flooded Europe and caused a massive demographic crisis. Oh, Syria, not a single American stepped on the ground. Oh, wait, except until ISIS accepted a caliphate and a bunch of people were slaughtered in the Bataclan. And actually, it's 2025, and there's still over 1,000 troops that are on the ground in Syria today. You know, it's like having to warn about all these consequences. You

Same with Iraq. The Iraq question was about nuclear weapons. Now, if they had correctly posed to the American people, do you support nation building in Iraq? I do not think that the vast majority would have supported it. But the point is, is once you're in, you're in. And you just slowly get bought in. And next thing you know, oh, we have to bring peace between the Sunni and the Shia because Americans are super qualified for that one.

Right. Right? And then, oh, actually, no, it's a civil war. We've got to get involved here. We've got to make sure girls can go to school in Afghanistan. Exactly. And I'm already seeing that, by the way, in regard to Iran. Yeah, exactly. It's like, oh, yeah, oh, my God, I'm reading this book right now about, I told you about it. It's called Revolutionary Iran. Fantastic book. I highly recommend it. This whole, oh, they wore miniskirts. Yeah, that was in, like, one neighborhood in Tehran.

As usual. It's always the same. Well, and that also misrepresents the reality for women in Iran right now. I'm not saying that they don't discriminate and it's not oppressive, et cetera. But you have a huge number of women who are preponderance of the STEM graduates, et cetera. I mean, the whole thing is just distorted all the way around.

point is that it's nuanced and it's a difficult picture, okay? You had another Islamic nation called Turkey, which basically tried to eradicate the religion and all of religiosity from society. Want to ask how that worked out? There's a guy named Erdogan who's in charge, basically who came on the back of a rebellion against that, despite what years, decades of propaganda against the religion of Islam. Turns out they're not very good at it. My only point is that

Look, whether things should be or should not be is not my decision. That's for the people of Iran. That's for the people of Turkey. You live how you want to live and I'll live how the way I want to. But to transpose like these like Western neighborhoods onto the entire society is ridiculous. Like I'm thinking in Jordan, anybody who's ever been to Jordan, there's like this one neighborhood where all the Americans hang out and there's like a gay bar there and people will be like, "Oh, see, it's such a progressive society." And I'm like, "Yeah, there's one, okay?"

And the reason they all go there is 'cause they can drink or whatever. Go and poll the vast majority of the city of Amman and be like, hey, what do you think about this? They'd probably be outraged. Or they just live and let live and they exist in one place. This is not to denigrate. They can live how they would like. - And Amman is maybe the most Western. - Yeah, one of the most Western places.

Yeah, there's so much to say about it. And here's the bottom line, too. It's not that I don't care about the fate of women and girls, but I know a regime collapse in Iran is going to be devastating for everyone. That is the most devastating thing you can imagine, right? So, yeah, the...

justifications that we're already running through for why this would be a great idea. I mean, it's like a speed run through what we saw throughout all of these failed regime change operations. I want to read a few of the comments from, because what Washington Post does is they do the poll, but they also talk to the voters about their justifications, which are kind of interesting. So they have a Nevada woman, 62, Republican, voted for Trump. She says the U.S. cannot allow Iran to have nukes. Israel is our friend. Iran is the main sponsor of terrorism. So that is a Fox News story.

Watch her through and through, watching the same content as the president of the United States. You have another Republican, though, who voted for Trump, 74-year-old woman. She says, I think Trump and the U.S. need to continue negotiations and alternatives before the U.S. bombs Iran and starts World War III. Okay, that's good. I like that one. You've got a Democrat who didn't vote, says Iran is not an imminent threat to the U.S. You've got an independent who voted for Trump, 44-year-old man, who says, I'm not convinced they have nuclear weapons. We need proof.

But I'll tell you, if you look further into this poll and the results that they got, and this again is why Trump is saying over and over again, they can't have a nuke. They can't have a nuke. They can't have a nuke because 82% of respondents to this poll, Democrats, Republicans, independents, 82% said they are concerned about Iran getting a nuclear weapon. So, uh,

you know, that's why they feel like the firmest ground is when they're trying to convince you that they were right on the edge of getting this nuclear weapon. We have to act now. And if they're able to persuade the public of that for some time, they will enjoy some level of support. Now I will tell you, um,

I had, uh, I won't say who exactly, but I had a young man, 19 years old, who is, um, you know, not a news watcher. He is very much. You're like, nor me, not super. He's, he works in trades. He's not focused on any of this stuff. Who was deeply concerned about this, actually, like this broke through to him and he is the tie. He's the field non-watcher. Like that's,

That's where he falls. And so I think in terms of independence, I think you have a real chance to make the case. When I look at those Republican numbers who already support it and then you've got a whole bunch of them who are unsure, you know, I just look at that and I know the minute Donald Trump makes the decision, they're all going to lock in. And like Trump says, it's good. So it must be good. That's what we're doing. I mean, if you guys want to know what they're watching over on Fox, I tweeted this, but

Literally, they had on the son of Elie Wiesel, the guy who wrote Night to the Holocaust survivor, to come on and to compare striking Iranian nuclear facilities to bombing Auschwitz during World War II at the height of the Holocaust. That's the level of shit that these people are imbibing into their brains. And there's not a single element of skepticism of anything that you're hearing. Usually the way that they frame the question is, there is a risk of foreign entanglement. Why don't you tell us why that's not true?

That's the closest that they'll come to even presenting the risk. It's just so, so bad. It's honestly, it might even be worse than 2003. The only like shining thing that I saw is that that Tucker interview went so massively viral.

Like viral into the sense that, like you said, the 19-year-olds are listening. Like on liberal, on conservative, wherever. Like it was all over TikTok and it was framed. It was exactly the right bite-sized moment, you know, and all of that. And that really did break through. Now, we didn't have that in 03 and it's probably not enough to stop what's coming. But at the very least, it exists in the historical record. Real quick, I have to correct myself. It's 70% who are concerned about the Iranian nuclear program. It's still high. It's still very high. Yeah.

All right. Well, next, we have a very special guest, Saurabh Amari. Saurabh is an expert both on Iran. He's a former neocon who wanted regime change. He's now a realist who opposes regime change. He can tell us in exact, like exactitude, why a regime change operation in Iran would be a total disaster for the United States. And critically, he knows how many people live in Iran. And he also knows how many people. Let's get to it.

Have you ever thought about going voiceover? I'm Hope Woodard, a comedian, creator, and seeker of male validation. To most people, I'm the girl behind voiceover, the movement that exploded in 2024. Voiceover is about understanding yourself outside of sex and relationships. It's more than personal. It's political, it's societal, and at times, it's far from what I originally intended it to be.

These days, I'm interested in expanding what it means to be voiceover to make it customizable for anyone who feels the need to explore their relationship to relationships.

I'm talking to a lot of people who will help us think about how we love each other. It's a very, very normal experience to have times where a relationship is prioritizing other parts of that relationship that aren't being naked together. How we love our family. I've spent a lifetime trying to get my mother to love me, but the price is too high. And how we love ourselves. Singleness is not a waiting room. You are actually at the party right now. Let me hear it. No.

Listen to VoiceOver on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Camp Shane, one of America's longest-running weight loss camps for kids, promised extraordinary results. Campers who began the summer in heavy bodies were often unrecognizable when they left. In a society obsessed with being thin, it seemed like a miracle solution. But behind Camp Shane's facade of happy, transformed children was a dark underworld of sinister secrets.

Kids were being pushed to their physical and emotional limits as the family that owned Shane turned a blind eye. Nothing about that camp was right. It was really actually like a horror movie. In this eight-episode series, we're unpacking and investigating stories of mistreatment and reexamining the culture of fatphobia that enabled a flawed system to continue for so long.

You can listen to all episodes of Camp Shame one week early and totally ad-free on iHeart True Crime Plus. So don't wait. Head to Apple Podcasts and subscribe today.

I came out because I literally had a contract ripped up in front of me. On a recent episode of Good Game with Sarah Spain, I spotlighted an inspiring out athlete, pro golfer Mel Reid. I think everyone's story is different. I've been very lucky that I've got a very supportive family who literally don't care. It's a part of me. I'm certainly not ashamed of it. And I think that there should be more representation in it.

To hear this and more on identity, inclusivity, and the power of being seen, listen to Good Game with Sarah Spain, an iHeart Women's Sports production in partnership with Deep Blue Sports and Entertainment on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Brought to you by Novartis, founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports Network. Very excited now to be joined by Saurabh Amari. He's the U.S. editor for Unheard. Great friend of the show. It's good to see you, man. Thank you for joining us.

Thank you both for having me. So, Saurabh, we gave you a fantastic introduction already. And so let's just get down to it about the population of Iran, whether you can tell us, because certainly Ted Cruz can. Let's take a listen. And most importantly, let's dissect why that matters for U.S. regime change attempts here. Let's take a listen. How many people live in Iran, by the way? I don't know the population. At all? No, I don't know the population. You don't know the population of the country you seek to topple?

How many people live in Iran? 92 million. Okay. Yeah. How could you not know that? I don't sit around memorizing population tables. Well, it's kind of relevant because you're calling for the overthrow of the government. Why is it relevant whether it's 90 million or 80 million or 100 million? Why is that relevant? Because if you don't know anything about the country. I didn't say I don't know anything about the country. Okay. What's the ethnic mix of Iran?

They are Persians and predominantly Shia. OK, this is not you don't know anything about Iran. So, OK, I am not the Tucker Carlson expert on Iran. You're a senator who's calling for the overthrow of the government. You're the one who claims. You don't know anything about the country.

No, you don't know anything about the country. You're the one who claims they're not trying to murder Donald Trump. No, I'm not saying that. You're the one who can't figure out if it was a good idea to kill General Soleimani and you said it was bad. You don't believe they're trying to murder Trump. Yes, I do. Because you're not calling for military strikes against them in retaliation. And if you really believe that. We're carrying out military strikes today. You said Israel was. Right. With our help.

I've said we, Israel is leading them, but we're supporting them. Well, you're breaking news here because the U.S. government last night denied, the National Security Council spokesman Alex Pfeiffer denied on behalf of Trump that we were acting on Israel's behalf in any offensive capacity at all. We're not bombing them. Israel's bombing them. You just said we were.

We are supporting Israel. This is high stakes. You're a senator. If you're saying the United States government is, we're with Iran right now. People are listening. So, Saurabh, why does it matter that somebody who wants to overthrow the regime in Iran doesn't know the population or the ethnic makeup of Iran? First of all, kudos to Tucker for that interview. It reminded me of a kind of

you see on UK broadcast journalism, you know, where you really probe and too often we don't in the United States where it's just so deferential to anyone in power. But it matters because Iran is a large and extremely complex society and

vaster and more sensitive than Iraq, where the last time we attempted a real kind of regime change, direct occupation and nation building. So yes, it really, it matters for many reasons. One is, first of all, just the sheer size of the country tells you something about how difficult the kind of post regime collapse scenario would be.

And second of all, you know, it also goes into how much the Iranians, how many people, for example, they can recruit if the United States is forced into a ground operation and there's a kind of war of attrition between the regime, whatever regime we would install and where the regime remnants, the older regimes remnants, whom they could recruit, how many people they could recruit. So it's just I mean, it's just appalling. And I admire Senator Cruz on some issues.

But it's just appalling that he doesn't know. And the excuse making for it is like, whoa, is he supposed to look up Wikipedia? Yes. Yes, actually. Read a briefing. You have access to information that the rest of us don't. Like read. Read your article. Yeah. We can put you up on the screen. I mean, this is so interesting.

I knew the population number because Sagar and I, one of the first things we did when we knew that this was being contemplated, when we knew we were backing this war on Iran is, okay, well, how does this compare to Syria? How does this compare to Iraq? What is the population of Iran versus Israel? Like the most surface level thing you could possibly know about this conflict. And yes, it's incredibly significant, but I would love you to lay on a little bit of what you do in this piece of like, okay, let's say you get your wish. Let's say the current regime collapses, right?

How do you see that unfolding, given the fact, as you just stated, that Iran is a complex, multi-ethnic society?

Yep. So first of all, the biggest problem will be the question of political authority and national authority that can keep the country together and govern minimally. And given Iran's political culture, Iran's political culture is defined by a term in Persian and Arabic, it's istibdad, which means arbitrary rule. Unfortunately, the way that it's developed is

everything goes through a central authority, whether it's, whether you call it a Shah, meaning a King, or whether it's an Ayatollah who is basically a King under a different aspect. He's just, instead of a crown, he wears a turban. Um,

that degree of central authority and a tradition of centralized rule that has forestalled the development of a sense of different social classes being able to resolve differences through civil society, through well-defined legal rights and duties, et cetera, et cetera, is underdeveloped. We've had attempts at trying to build those up in our 20th century.

I'm Iranian-American. The Iranians have attempted to build it up. In some cases, those attempts have been short-circuited by foreign imperialists. There was a constitutional revolution in 1905, and the Brits and the Russians basically, in part, set out to scuttle that because they treated Iran as a prize in the so-called great game. There was a parliamentary democracy for a while after World War II.

And the leader of that movement was toppled in part through a it's complicated. It's not just in a leftist kind of talking point. It's like we toppled our democratic government. The story is more complicated. But at any rate, it hasn't developed that political culture that would easily be able to stand up a new order.

So that's the main problem. And so who would you install? They floated the Shah of the Sun. And monarchy has some attractive things about it. It represents a kind of continuity, a link to the Iranian past. There are problems with it, though. Everyone I know who's worked with Reza Pahlavi, the heir to the Pahlavi dynasty, describes him as basically like indolent, incurious, etc. Second, he's

become like a quasi spokesman for the idea of he didn't act in a kingly way, which is when that happened, he should he should have said something like, I feel my compatriots pain. I'm doing I'm using all my influence to bring it to an end. And, you know, that sort of thing. What he said instead was, you know, this is all Iran's fault, which is

Of course, I mean, the Iranian regime has shouted this nasty slogan, death to Israel, death to America. I don't deny that. But he said it's Iran's fault and rise up and overthrow the regime. Well, meanwhile, you see footage of fathers holding their infants with bloody diapers because of the bombings. How is that guy going to rise up and –

You know, mounted small D democratic revolution. So but sorry, just to clean up this point, even if he were the second coming of Cyrus the Great, you know, the biblical emperor, the Persian emperor was mentioned in the Bible at various points. Even if you were the second coming of Cyrus, he needs to be able to assert control over this far flung, sprawling country of 90 million with a fractious ethnic makeup that

And he couldn't do that without a prolonged US intervention, right? In other words, you would have to help him do that. Otherwise, it would be just like Afghanistan, where there's a government, a rump state that can only control the capital and its surrounding environments. And the rest of the country becomes like Libyanized and Syrianized and is spreading instability all over the place. So for all these reasons, Senator Cruz, if you're listening to this, buy a book. Yeah.

Genesis is great. I revere the book of Genesis, but it's not enough for understanding the Middle East. I'm sure you would be happy to speak with him if he wanted to ask you some questions. Senator Cruz, listen, he's a curious guy. He should call you. So one of the things I really want to dive into here, like you just said, is about this necessity for authority and how in the vacuum of authority, the United States must step in. And I saw that this was kind of a controversial point, but it just seems very obvious to me.

Israel is a country of 9 million. What, they're going to impose regime change in a country of 90 million? There's no occupation force that is capable of that. And what would it involve? You know, basically a fall of the Iranian regime. Like, do you think it is even possible for the Iranian regime to survive at this point, even if the United States does not get involved, given Israel's statement? Their defense minister just today threatened the Ayatollah Khomeini and basically compared him to Hitler and to a Nazi and was like, yeah, we're going to kill him.

I mean, effectively saying that. So is there even a scenario at this point where they can survive in their current form, if not dramatically weakened? And what will come as a result of that? You know, if you had asked me that 48 hours ago, I would have said no, that the pounding that they're getting from the Israelis will lead to collapse. However, looking at it from the perspective of this morning,

I think that that will be a long-term proposition. I don't think the Israelis have it in them alone to be able to achieve that. What I've heard and gathered from open sources and talking to people on the inside, et cetera, is that the regime has gotten

reconsolidated itself, let's say, in recent days. They claim to have taken care of the Mossad infiltration that wreaked such havoc in the early stages of the conflict. They are getting better at-- they're kind of very experimental people. So they just were like, let's try different things with Iron Dome and with David's sling. And they're kind of learning and adjusting tactics as they go on.

As I understand it, and here I, you know, take this with a grain of salt because I'm not like the kind of military expert, but as I understand it, their missile launch structure is very automated and hard to get at, more so than the Israelis have claimed or did claim in the triumphant early days. And so with all that in mind, I think that what they want to do is to make this a kind of long war of attrition that, you know,

It goes on for a long time. In other words, what I'm saying is the risks of regime collapse have somewhat been reduced to my mind over the past 48 hours.

However, that doesn't mean that if it happens, it's a good thing for all the earlier reasons I mentioned. Yeah. Or that the war of attrition model is good for anyone in the region. You know, whether it's U.S. troops who are vulnerable and don't have an Iron Dome sitting in Iraq and elsewhere, whether it's Israel itself. I mean, I love the city of Tel Aviv and it really breaks my heart to see what the Iranian ballistic systems have done.

I mean, this has to be put to a stop through a negotiated settlement. So, Saurabh, what I hear from people who are supportive of us getting offensively directly involved is basically like, well, we can just go in, drop some bunker busters on Fordow, get out. And I don't know what you people are so concerned about. Like, this will be quick. It'll be easy. It doesn't require us to be boots on the ground in this long scale, you know, involvement. How do you how do you see that?

Yeah. So basically, OK, the way I think about it is actually this is an analogy from a friend of mine, Kurt Mills, who said, you know, there are two houses. One is a mansion.

And one is like a fixer upper. The mansion is a negotiated settlement. The fixer upper is the quick hit. And it looks more attractive. It looks cheaper up front. It's easier to sign the deal, meaning of buying the house or in this case, striking Fordo. But the house is actually termite ridden and collapses when it's exposed to the lightest storm. So what I mean by that is

That that this idea that you can go in very quickly, hit Fordo and get out, you have to take it with a big chunk of salt, not a grain of salt, because you're

Iran has only so far used its long-range ballistics against Israel. That makes sense because of the distance. It has a whole bunch of short- and medium-range missiles that can reach U.S. bases, which are vulnerable, as I said. It can try to close the Strait of Hormuz through which 20 percent of the world's energy supplies traverse.

And if they do either or both of those things, then the United States will inevitably be forced to respond in a bigger way. And we're in that bigger war. So the mansion, which looks expensive and difficult and daunting to get of a deal, is actually the more realistic option than the fixer upper of just go in, strike and get out.

And lastly, Saurabh, and by the way, we should mention to people who are concerned about things, you have been there, so you are eminently qualified on every level to speak of such things. But the other thing that Trump has posited is that American strikes, Israeli strikes, and then, you know, ultimately potentially American strikes on Iran will soften them up so that that mansion will be more easily acquired. What do you make of that logic?

I just think at that point their incentives is you basically have someone in a hole who's like firing at you.

And you fire even more and you're telling him, but come out. And his mentality is, well, if I come out with my arms up, you're going to shoot me. So the only the only rational thing from my point of view is to just hold up and keep firing. And maybe I'll die in a flash of heat or I won't. But I just don't see that.

I don't see Iranians being able to, the Iranian leadership, as we've known it historically, at that point, once that has happened, they think, well, you're out to kill me and I'm just going to

I'm going to take my chances with firing rockets and closing Hormuz and potentially setting off terrorist proxies elsewhere in Western heartlands, et cetera, et cetera. I'm trying to think through that and I just don't see them being softened up. I'm seeing that just feeling so cornered that-

I don't see any historical evidence for it. I see none. Nations that are under the gun and asked for unconditional surrender very rarely do it until they suffer immense and mass death. And usually the population rallies to the flag because they don't want to deal with it as bad as it is. They're willing to fight to the death. And that's a very bad scenario.

I think for all of us. Saurabh, your commentary, your pieces and all that have been so, so helpful for all of us. And I know they've been circulating wide. Part of the reason we wanted to have you on the show. I encourage everybody to read it and please keep up the good work, man. Thank you for joining us. Great to see you, Saurabh. Thank you both. Bad news, guys. You're going to have to wait until tomorrow, the Friday show, to find out what our dear leader Obama had to say about the present situation. So I'm sure you'll be waiting with bated breath.

just went too long as we often do in the rest of the show. We got to get it wrapped, get the headlines, get it out. Thank you so much for sticking with us this week for all of the coverage. I think we're going to have all four hosts for the Friday show tomorrow. Yeah, I'll make it work. So we're going to have extensive coverage there. And Ro Khanna is actually going to join us. He's one of the Democrats who's been pushing the War Powers Resolution fight in Congress. So really important to talk to him right now. All right. We'll see you guys tomorrow then.

I'm Jeff Perlman. And I'm Rick Jervis. We're journalists and hosts of the podcast Finding Sexy Sweat. At an internship in 1993, we roomed with Reggie Payne, aspiring reporter and rapper who went by Sexy Sweat. A couple years ago, we set out to find him. But in 2020, Reggie fell into a coma after police pinned him down, and he never woke up.

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