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cover of episode On Blindness: The IDF’s 10/7 Probe - with Amos Harel & Nadav Eyal

On Blindness: The IDF’s 10/7 Probe - with Amos Harel & Nadav Eyal

2025/3/3
logo of podcast Call Me Back - with Dan Senor

Call Me Back - with Dan Senor
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Amos Harel: 我认为以色列情报部门严重低估了哈马斯的实力和意图。他们将哈马斯视为次要敌人，而将注意力集中在黎巴嫩真主党和伊朗身上。即使在哈马斯行动计划被窃取后，他们仍然拒绝相信哈马斯会发动大规模袭击。这与1973年赎罪日战争和911事件类似，都是由于对敌人的误判和低估而导致的重大失败。 此外，以色列军方在安息日部署的兵力不足，并且休假制度也导致了兵力不足。他们错误地认为敌人会尊重安息日，这导致了在袭击发生时，边境地区的防御力量薄弱。 情报部门的失败是多方面的，包括未能及时发现和解读哈马斯使用以色列SIM卡的异常信号，以及未能充分评估哈马斯行动计划的严重性。他们过于依赖“读后销毁”的策略，导致错失了及早采取行动的机会。 总而言之，以色列军方对哈马斯的意图和能力存在严重误判，并且在应对袭击时反应迟缓，导致了惨重的损失。 Nadav Eyal: 在10月6日晚上，以色列国防军高层确实注意到了一些异常信号，例如哈马斯成员使用以色列SIM卡等。然而，由于他们误判了这些信号的严重性，认为这可能只是一次演习，因此没有及时采取行动。 以国防军南部司令部指挥官菲克尔曼将军为例，他虽然在凌晨提前结束了休假返回，并进行了情况评估，但情报部门却报告说哈马斯处于例行状态，这导致了错误的判断。 在纳哈洛兹军事基地的战斗中，以色列国防军的失败更是显而易见。该基地距离加沙边境过近，防御设施不足，士兵训练不足，指挥链在袭击发生后迅速崩溃。哈马斯对基地的日常活动进行了长期监控，并利用这一点发动了袭击。 纳哈洛兹基地的战斗暴露了以色列国防军在多个方面的失败：部署位置选择不当，防御设施不足，士兵训练不足，指挥链断裂，以及对哈马斯意图和能力的严重低估。这些失败导致了大量士兵伤亡和人质被劫持。 总而言之，以色列国防军在10月7日事件中的失败是多方面因素造成的，包括情报失误、战略误判、军事部署不足以及指挥链断裂等。

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Chapters
This chapter analyzes the intelligence failures in the lead-up to the October 7th Hamas attack. It discusses the use of Israeli SIM cards by Hamas operatives, the delayed response by the IDF, and the impact of Shabbat on troop deployment.
  • Use of Israeli SIM cards by Hamas was a worrying sign but not immediately alarming.
  • Delayed response from IDF due to 'wait and see' approach.
  • Impact of Shabbat and changed soldier vacation schedule on troop deployment levels.

Shownotes Transcript

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On Thursday, the IDF released the scathing findings of its probe into the military failures that led up to and accompanied the massacre of October 7, 2023. 

According to those findings, the military vastly underestimated Hamas’s capabilities, misread its intentions, and failed to mount an effective response to the mass invasion of Israel’s borders. The IDF’s probe into its own failures reveals both the extent to which warnings went ignored, and the extent to which so many communities in Southern Israel were forced to fend for themselves. 

While some of these findings come as no surprise, they are still shocking and devastating to process. We spoke with two of Israel’s leading national security journalists to walk through the key points of the findings.  

Amos Harel is the Defense Analyst at Haaretz, and Nadav Eyal is a Senior Political Analyst at Yediot Achronot. 

CREDITS:

ILAN BENATAR - Producer & Editor

MARTIN HUERGO - Additional Editing

YARDENA SCHWARTZ - Executive Editor of Ark Media

GABE SILVERSTEIN - Research  

YUVAL SEMO - Music Composer