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cover of episode The Hostage Negotiations - with Nadav Eyal

The Hostage Negotiations - with Nadav Eyal

2024/12/23
logo of podcast Call Me Back - with Dan Senor

Call Me Back - with Dan Senor
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Nadav Eyal: 我认为内塔尼亚胡现在对达成协议感兴趣，因为这对他政治上有利，能够提升其政治形象，并能满足以色列民众强烈希望结束战争并找回人质的愿望。哈马斯内部存在权力斗争，耶海亚·辛瓦尔的死导致权力真空，其兄弟穆罕默德·辛瓦尔的影响力上升，这在一定程度上有利于达成可能的俘虏交换协议，但穆罕默德·辛瓦尔强硬的态度也构成障碍。以色列的目标是找回所有在世人质，哈马斯的主要目标是迫使以色列结束战争，并创造一种局面，使战争无法重启。关于人质释放数量的谈判与之前的谈判非常相似，以色列要求哈马斯在第一阶段释放30多名人质，最低限度为18至22名人质。耶海亚·辛瓦尔的死和对抵抗轴心的打击后，哈马斯是否会就尼扎里姆走廊的撤离问题做出妥协，以及以色列如何确保哈马斯不会重建其基础设施，是关键问题。以色列不可能在没有事先计划的情况下赢得战争，并改变加沙的政府。哈马斯除非战争结束，否则不会同意释放剩余人质。以色列除非愿意付出巨大牺牲，否则无法清除加沙的哈马斯，因为哈马斯利用人质来阻止战争结束。美国新政府的强硬立场以及对中东地区的影响，对促成协议起到了积极作用。各种因素（以色列在北部和抵抗轴心方面的胜利、哈马斯在该地区的孤立、其受欢迎程度下降、以色列公众对结束战争的支持度提高）都应该促成达成协议。尽管各种因素有利于达成协议，但仍存在悲观情绪，有人怀疑内塔尼亚胡是否真的想达成协议。对以色列社会来说，最重要的是将女性士兵和其他被俘人员安全送回国内。虽然以色列在叙利亚取得了军事胜利，但找回人质对于以色列的胜利至关重要。如果人质在哈马斯的囚禁中死亡，这将对以色列社会的团结和对机构的信任造成严重打击。 Dan Senor: 我关注到美国对被哈马斯扣押的美国人质缺乏足够的关注，这是一种双重标准。

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Over the past week, we have seen headline after headline, indicating that Israel and Hamas appear to be closer than ever to a ceasefire and hostage deal. 

According to reports, the agreement would take place in phases, and would include a halt in fighting, an exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, and a surge in aid to Gaza. The final phase would include the release of any remaining hostages, an end to the war and talks on reconstruction. 

How legitimate are these reports - is this for real? What political conditions, both in Israel and among key players in these negotiations, could allow for such a deal to be finalized? 

To help us understand, and to briefly discuss the recent Houthi attacks, Nadav Eyal returns to the podcast. 

Nadav Eyal is a columnist for Yediiot. He is one of Israel’s leading journalists. Eyal has been covering Middle-Eastern and international politics for the last two decades for Israeli radio, print and television news.