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cover of episode Will the U.S. Deal Iran its Final Blow? - with Amit Segal

Will the U.S. Deal Iran its Final Blow? - with Amit Segal

2025/6/16
logo of podcast Call Me Back - with Dan Senor

Call Me Back - with Dan Senor
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Amit Segal: 作为一名资深的政治分析员，我认为以色列对伊朗采取先发制人的打击，旨在阻止伊朗最高领袖预先设定的反应，即向以色列发射数千枚弹道导弹。我们通过制造假电话和派遣无人机摧毁了伊朗的导弹发射能力，从而避免了更大规模的袭击。虽然伊朗随后进行了反击，但规模较小，因为我们的反导系统可以同时处理的攻击数量有限。公众对此次行动的支持度非常高，人们像伦敦人在二战闪电战中一样，在遭受夜间袭击后，早上仍然去工作。虽然我们估计会有800到4000人伤亡，但目前的伤亡人数低于最低估计。如果伊朗继续以目前的速度发射导弹，他们将在短时间内耗尽。我们还可以选择升级攻击，例如攻击伊朗的经济和能源基础设施，甚至消灭其领导人。总的来说，我们的行动比原计划提前了七天，并且在摧毁伊朗核计划方面取得了进展，尽管仍处于早期阶段。如果美国介入，摧毁伊朗核计划只需48小时，但即使只有我们自己，我们也有信心在两周内完成任务。我认为美国可能会采取类似于二战时期的租借法案，向我们提供军事装备，或者设定新的谈判门槛，以阻止伊朗恢复被摧毁的设施。特朗普总统的回应也值得关注，他使用伊朗式的代理人方法，声称与我们的袭击无关，并邀请伊朗重返谈判桌。我认为内塔尼亚胡总理在此次事件中展现了出色的外交技巧，并得到了共和党内亲以色列力量的支持。我们与伊朗的冲突是内塔尼亚胡和哈梅内伊之间的对决，内塔尼亚胡试图消除伊朗的核计划，而哈梅内伊试图消灭以色列。我们必须阻止伊朗获得核武器，因为当原教旨主义穆斯林拥有武器时，它将被用来对付我们。我们可能会除掉哈梅内伊，因为他直接下令袭击以色列平民，但这可能会激怒伊朗人民。除了美国干预，我们还应该关注伊朗天然气工业和伊朗代理人放弃伊朗的方式。我们现在看到的是我们和伊朗之间赤裸裸的对抗，没有任何中间人。

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This chapter summarizes the devastating Iranian missile attacks on Israel on June 14th, 2024, resulting in numerous casualties and widespread damage. It sets the stage for a discussion on the possibility of US military intervention.
  • 13 Israelis dead and over 200 wounded
  • Two massive barrages of missiles from Iran
  • Missiles targeted Israel's north and central regions
  • Significant damage to residential buildings in Bat Yam and Tamra

Shownotes Transcript

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Today’s Episode:

In the early hours of Friday, June 13th, the Israeli Air Force began major attacks on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, as well as IRGC leaders and nuclear scientists. The attack prompted an Iranian retaliation which began later that night. 

Saturday, the second day of war with Iran, became the deadliest night for Israeli civilians since October 7th, after two massive barrages of Iranian rockets killed eleven Israelis and wounded over 200. Seven people were killed in Bat Yam, where a missile struck a residential building, and four were killed in the Arab city of Tamra, east of Haifa. 

As the Israeli offensive on Iran proceeds, the big question is; will the United States join Israel’s offensive to destroy Iran’s nuclear program?

In this episode, Amit Segal, Call me Back Regular and senior political analyst for Channel 12, joins us to discuss Saturday night’s attack on Israel, and the possibility of U.S. military action against Iran.

CREDITS:

ILAN BENATAR - Producer & Editor

MARTIN HUERGO - Sound Editor

MARIANGELES BURGOS - Additional Editing

MAYA RACKOFF - Operations Director

GABE SILVERSTEIN - Research

YUVAL SEMO - Music Composer