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Would You Trust a Gangster Nanny? - Cautionary Questions with Rachel Botsman
2025/3/7
Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford
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Rachel Botsman
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Tim Harford
Rachel Botsman: 我对不易察觉、复杂难懂的事物感兴趣，而信任就是其中之一。它看不见、摸不着，却能感受得到，并且知道它何时消失。信任是一个复杂且不断变化的因素，它影响着我们生活的许多方面。我将信任定义为与未知的自信关系，它存在于风险和不确定性的空间中。人们常常因为认为某人善良、诚实或安全可靠而信任他们，但这往往会导致错误的决定。
信任既是给予的，也是赢得的，有时我们甚至在不知不觉中就做出了信任的决定。我们常常凭直觉而非信息来决定信任谁，尤其是在压力下或渴望信任对方时。大约70%的人天生就比较容易信任他人，这与后天环境的影响更大。人们在发现被欺骗后仍然继续信任对方的原因有很多，有时是因为对方在特定方面表现出色，有时是因为更换对方会带来不便。人们在信任关系中，可能存在着否认、视而不见或不愿相信证据积累的情况。一厢情愿的想法与错误的信任之间存在密切关系，人们往往因为希望相信而忽略了证据。一厢情愿的想法在创造力、创业和科学探索中是必要的，但当人们利用其弱点时，就会产生问题。在高风险情况下，做出良好的信任决策的关键在于放慢速度，获取足够可靠的信息。人们之所以能够快速建立信任，是因为对方善于倾听、提问，并表现出真诚的好奇心。信任的破坏并非源于秘密本身，而是源于欺骗。
当预言失败时，人们为了避免认知失调，往往会强化之前的信念，并为预言的失败寻找合理的解释。理解人们相信什么以及他们为什么相信很重要，这有助于我们以同情而非评判的眼光去看待他人。我们的许多信念并非基于第一性原理，而是基于对某种权威的信任，而这种信任会受到周围人的影响。为了增强人们对良好反欺诈建议的信任，并减少对欺诈者的信任，我们需要改进信任信号和标记，让人们能够更好地识别可信赖的来源。在评估信息时，要放慢速度，注意自己的情绪反应，避免在情绪化的状态下做出判断。为了提高在线和线下交易的可靠性，我们需要改进声誉系统，使其更可靠，更不容易受到欺诈的影响。对健身追踪器的过度依赖可能会导致我们忽视自身感受，并对追踪器提供的数据产生过度的信任。人们对睡眠追踪器的信任，可能会影响他们对自身睡眠状况的感知和判断，进而影响他们的情绪和行为。人们对播客主持人的信任，往往并非基于对他们专业知识的理性评估，而是基于其他直觉，例如对主持人的好感和熟悉感。在社交媒体或音频内容中，人们的信任决策往往是基于感觉、身份和内容的顺序。
Tim Harford: 对健身追踪器的过度依赖可能会导致我们忽视自身感受，并对追踪器提供的数据产生过度的信任。当预言失败时，人们为了避免认知失调，往往会强化之前的信念，并为预言的失败寻找合理的解释。人们对播客主持人的信任，往往并非基于对他们专业知识的理性评估，而是基于其他直觉，例如对主持人的好感和熟悉感。
supporting_evidences
Rachel Botsman: 'Well, first of all, good is a terrible word, right? Like good is so subjective. Trust is subjective.'
Rachel Botsman: 'Now, my sense is Lee... kind of knows the answer to this question. But it's a very interesting question because trust is given and it's earned.'
Rachel Botsman: 'But particularly in new relationships, you want that loop to be really, really healthy. This idea that it's buried so deep in our psyche that we don't even know.'
Rachel Botsman: 'I tell a story in the book about my parents who trusted a nanny once They hired her because she said she belonged to the Salvation Army.'
Rachel Botsman: 'But the thing is, when I was... Taping my dad, he did confess, and this is a big one, it would have been inconvenient to get rid of her.'
Rachel Botsman: 'So one, Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, who famously was fooled by a teenage girl into believing that there were fairies at the bottom of her garden.'
Rachel Botsman: 'But wishful thinking, I mean, as a concept, it's so interesting. Like when I think of wishful thinking, I think of hope and I think of possibility and I think of creativity'
Rachel Botsman: 'And I think the difference is that some people don't... slow down enough to get enough of the right information to make a good decision'
Rachel Botsman: 'I love this question. It's quite a weird question. I like it.'
Rachel Botsman: 'Secrets aren't the enemy of trust. Actually, people that you really trust should be able to keep secrets.'
Tim Harford: 'Well, I'll have a go. I mean, it's really an exact replay of an earlier incident involving an end-of-the-world cult called the Seekers'
Rachel Botsman: 'It's incredible. But yeah, all I can say is Negus experiences, this is not the first time this has happened.'
Rachel Botsman: 'They have to place their trust somewhere. They may not be placing it in the most trustworthy thing.'
Rachel Botsman: 'It's a really hard one to answer because I feel like the fraudsters now replicate the trust signals.'
Rachel Botsman: 'So the first piece of advice I give people when they're thinking about a statistical claim is... Search your feelings.'
Rachel Botsman: 'It's a good question. And Betty, it's my cup of tea, this question.'
Tim Harford: 'But I'm aware that there are certain risks that first of all, I might not be able to trust all the data I'm getting from the watch.'
Rachel Botsman: 'Have a good night's sleep. Your watch told you you had a bad night's sleep. You will act as though you had a bad night's sleep.'
Tim Harford: 'I feel seen. I mean, it's a good question. But I think that people trust cautionary tales and they trust other podcasters because trust is often placed not on the basis of a rational assessment of expertise, but on other intuitions.'
Deep Dive
This chapter explores the nature of trust, examining whether it's a given, earned, or innate characteristic. It discusses the role of intuition and experience in shaping our trust profiles and the concept of a "trust loop."
- Trust is subjective and complex, not simply about 'good' or 'reliable' people.
- Trust decisions are often intuitive, not based on rational assessment.
- Early childhood experiences significantly shape our trust profiles.
- The marshmallow test illustrates the connection between trust and delayed gratification.
Shownotes Transcript