cover of episode What comes after the China-U.S. temporary tariff deal?

What comes after the China-U.S. temporary tariff deal?

2025/5/16
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Warwick Powell
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Zhou Mi
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William Lee: 我认为特朗普总统使用关税是为了激励各国进行贸易谈判，而非永久性措施。关税旨在促使各国坐下来讨论新的贸易协议，并承认WTO规则已不适用于21世纪。虽然美国希望通过关税促使企业回流，增加国内生产和就业，但最终目标是达成互利的贸易协定。美国也希望通过开放市场，减少非关税壁垒，实现更公平的贸易环境。我感到惊讶的是，中美两国如此迅速地同意开始谈判，并以四年前的协议为基础。 Warwick Powell: 我认为将关税仅仅视为谈判工具是过于简单化的。关税实际上是美国经济战略的核心部分，旨在改变相对价格，鼓励资本回流美国本土。虽然重新工业化是合理的目标，但关税是否是实现这一目标的正确策略值得商榷。此外，中国一直明确表示，只有在取消关税的前提下才愿意进行建设性对话。美国之所以愿意接触中国，是因为担心关税对国内市场和通货膨胀产生负面影响。现在的问题是，90天的谈判是否能带来实质性的成果。

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The recent China-U.S. tariff agreement took many by surprise, especially given the initial predictions of a prolonged trade war. Experts discuss the unexpected U-turn, the role of market forces and political will, and the implications of this temporary truce.
  • Initial predictions of a prolonged trade war were widespread.
  • The agreement was reached faster than many anticipated.
  • Market forces and political willingness both contributed to the outcome.
  • Concerns arose about the potential impact on inflation and product availability.

Shownotes Transcript

It's a deal, but not a done deal. The temporary tariff agreement reached between China and the United States has brought a glimmer of positivity to a world shrouded in Washington's tariff war. What immediate impact will the deal have on the course of two-way trade? Does the agreement have any implications for other countries currently in talks with the U.S.? How may Beijing respond if Washington backtracks? And what may we expect after the three-month pause expires?

Host Tu Yun joins Dr. Zhou Mi, the Deputy Director of the Institute of American and Oceania Study, Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, William Lee, the Chief Economist with the U.S.-based Milken Institute, and Dr. Warwick Powell, Adjunct Professor at Queensland University of Technology in Australia for a close look at the Chat Lounge.