290 · Mark Ritchie II - Price-Action, Swing Trading Equities from the Long Side
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与Mark Ritchie II的对话：成功的交易之道在于长期计划和情绪管理
我最近采访了Mark Ritchie II，一位经验丰富的Swing交易员和增长型投资者。他的父亲Mark Ritchie Sr.曾被收录在Jack Schwager的《市场奇才》系列中，但这并没有直接影响Mark Jr.对交易的早期兴趣。他的交易之路更多的是源于自身实践和不断学习。
Mark的童年与大多数中西部孩子一样，热爱户外运动和游戏。虽然父亲是交易员，但他对市场并没有特别的兴趣。然而，正是那些充满偶然性的游戏，潜移默化地培养了他对概率的敏感性和思考能力，这为他后来的交易生涯奠定了基础。
他真正对市场产生兴趣是在他20多岁的时候，那段经历并非一帆风顺。他曾为一位后来因欺诈被举报的交易员工作，这段经历让他深刻认识到风险管理的重要性。这成为他日后交易生涯中最重要的基石。
从错误中学习：真金白银的教训
Mark强调，纸上交易无法完全模拟真实的交易情绪，而情绪管理在交易中至关重要。他建议新手从少量真金白银的交易开始，即使只有50美元，这远比纸上交易更有价值。因为只有在真实的交易环境中，才能体会到风险带来的压力和情绪波动，从而更好地学习和改进交易策略。
他早期犯下的最大错误之一是过于关注单次交易的输赢，而不是交易计划本身的有效性。他意识到，成功的关键在于长期坚持良好的交易计划，而不是单次交易的输赢。一个糟糕的计划总比没有计划好，坚持执行一个糟糕的计划也比一个好计划却不去执行要好。 这与下棋类似，长期策略的有效性决定了最终的胜负，而非单次对弈的结果。
交易策略：基于价格走势和基本面分析的多头Swing交易
Mark的交易策略主要基于长期价格走势和基本面分析，他专注于股票多头Swing交易。他更注重价格和成交量，而不是传统的技术指标，例如RSI、MACD等。他的筛选过程每天要处理数百甚至上千个股票，最终选出少数几个符合他标准的股票进行观察。
他寻找长期处于上涨趋势中的股票，并在价格出现紧密盘整或枢轴点时入场，这被他定义为低风险入场点。他不会去抄底，而是选择那些已经展现出上涨趋势的股票。
风险管理：严格的止损和高效的资金运用
Mark的止损点设置基于可接受的风险水平，通常不超过8%-10%，并且会参考技术图表上的支撑位和阻力位。他强调资金效率的重要性，宁愿快速止损，也不愿长时间持有表现不佳的股票。
一旦止损，他不会盲目追回，而是会重新评估股票，制定再入场计划。他认为，股票并不会“记仇”，重要的是要根据自己的交易计划和市场变化做出理性判断。
长期视角：在不同市场环境中保持盈利
Mark的交易生涯跨越了多个市场周期，包括牛市和熊市。他总结道，熊市是牛市的孕育者，在市场恐慌情绪达到顶点时，往往蕴藏着巨大的机会。他的风险管理策略让他能够在熊市中生存，并在牛市中获得丰厚的回报。他认为，即使在机器交易盛行的时代，个人交易者仍然有巨大的机会，关键在于找到适合自己的交易策略并坚持执行。
持续学习：交易中的必修课
除了Mark的经验分享，我的另一位主持人Tessa也强调了持续学习的重要性，尤其是在交易不顺的时候。她建议每天复盘交易，并从中吸取教训，不断改进自己的交易策略。
结论：
Mark Ritchie II的交易经验告诉我们，成功的交易并非依赖于运气或灵光一现，而是建立在长期坚持良好的交易计划、严格的风险管理和持续学习的基础之上。情绪管理是交易成功的关键因素之一，而从少量真金白银的交易开始，逐步建立信心和优势，是新手迈向成功的有效途径。 他的策略并非追求短期暴利，而是通过高效的资金运用和对市场趋势的精准把握，实现长期稳定的盈利。
WHY did Mark Ritchie II become a trader?
Mark's path to trading was indirect. He initially pursued nonprofit work but transitioned to the financial world out of necessity when his previous career path reached its limit and he needed to provide for his growing family. His interest in markets developed gradually through work experience with a family associate, where he was exposed to the dynamics of trading and the challenge of finding consistent profits.
WHY does Mark Ritchie II emphasize real money trading over paper trading?
Mark believes paper trading is a mistake because it omits the crucial emotional component of trading. He argues that experiencing the emotional impact of real losses, even small ones, is essential for developing discipline and learning effective risk management. He recommends starting with small amounts of real money to understand the psychological pressures of trading.
WHY does Mark Ritchie II focus on swing trading equities from the long side?
Mark primarily swing trades equities from the long side because he believes it offers a superior risk-reward profile. His process involves manually screening 600-1000 stocks daily, narrowing them down to watchlists based on criteria learned from his mentor, Mark Minervini. These criteria are rooted in timeless principles derived from the historical performance of winning stocks.
WHY doesn't Mark Ritchie II use technical indicators?
Mark doesn't use traditional technical indicators like stochastics, RSIs, or MACDs. He finds price and volume sufficient for his analysis. While he doesn't disparage those who use indicators, he hasn't found them helpful in his approach, which focuses on identifying stocks in long-term uptrends and spotting low-risk entry points based on price action.
WHY does Mark Ritchie II say "a bad plan is better than no plan"?
Mark believes any plan, even a flawed one, provides structure and discipline. He uses the analogy of chess, where a player with a simple strategy consistently applied will likely outperform someone making random moves. A bad plan, in his view, is one lacking risk management, sizing strategy, or exit plans. He emphasizes the importance of having a repeatable process, especially in today's information-saturated market.
How does Mark Ritchie II define a low-risk entry?
A low-risk entry for Mark involves a stock in a long-term uptrend, confirmed by weekly charts and the 200-day moving average. He looks for tight consolidations or pivot points that allow him to quickly determine if his assessment is correct, prioritizing capital efficiency. He avoids bottom fishing and emphasizes the importance of price confirming the fundamental story.
How does Mark Ritchie II manage exits?
Mark manages risk by setting stop-loss orders based on an acceptable risk point, typically a percentage between mid-single digits to a maximum of 8-10%, with a long-term average under 5%. Profit targets are determined by a multiple of his average loss, aiming for gains exceeding his average loss. He also considers technical factors like short-term extension and overall market conditions.
How has Mark Ritchie II performed throughout different market regimes?
Mark has achieved good long-term performance, with periods of aggressive trading and periods of inactivity. His process allows him to raise cash ahead of major declines, mitigating losses during bear markets. He finds choppy markets or periods of high volatility most challenging. His best performance typically comes after corrections and bear markets.
- Importance of consistent learning in trading
- Introduction of Mark Ritchie II and his background