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cover of episode 293 · Rick Bandazian Jr. - The Art of the Wait: Merger-Arbitrage Killer Moves

293 · Rick Bandazian Jr. - The Art of the Wait: Merger-Arbitrage Killer Moves

2024/12/19
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Rick Bandazian Jr.: 我在2008年金融危机后开始专注于事件驱动型交易策略,特别是并购套利。起初我尝试多种策略,但最终发现快速进出,抓住市场效率低下的机会才是最有效的。我的交易机会并不频繁,可能几天甚至几周都没有交易,但我会密切关注市场信息,一旦出现机会,我会快速反应,力求在信息被市场消化前获利。我跟踪大量的已宣布和未宣布的并购交易及其他事件驱动型交易,以便在新闻发布时做出快速反应。我通过深入研究公司基本面和交易细节,来预测股票价格的潜在涨跌幅度,并根据市场信息做出交易决策。我不依赖技术分析进行交易,而是依靠对市场信息的深入了解。对于非并购相关的事件驱动型交易,我需要对公司有深入的了解才能进行交易,否则我宁愿放弃。我会持续关注新的事件驱动型交易机会,并随着时间的推移,逐渐积累对不同公司和行业的了解。我的风险管理策略是设定一个目标利润,一旦达到就立即平仓,避免潜在的损失。最近我开始尝试一种基于宏观经济指标的中间期限交易策略,并将其与风险管理结合起来。我的中间期限交易策略是基于美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的持仓数据,识别市场中过度多头或空头的品种,并等待合适的时机进行交易。我使用技术指标和市场确认来确定进入和退出中间期限交易的时机。我的仓位规模取决于我对交易的信心程度和股票的流动性。我最大的挑战是交易机会的匮乏,这会影响我的心理状态。除了交易员的身份,我更是一名志愿消防员,热衷于回馈社会。 Tessa: Rick Bandazian Jr. 是一位经验丰富的交易员,擅长预测基于细微公司行为的市场走势,并采用系统化的方法来理解催化剂。他早期职业生涯中从事事件驱动型交易,专注于公司行为(如并购)引发的短期至中期市场波动。作为一名分析师,他的主要工作是挖掘市场信息,寻找交易机会并将其提交给投资经理。分析师和交易员的角色截然不同,分析师专注于寻找机会,而交易员需要考虑仓位规模、风险等更多因素。在2008年金融危机后的市场效率较低,这使得快速反应的事件驱动型交易策略能够获利。他选择独立交易,因为他的交易策略不需要大量资金,快速进出交易即可获利。他跟踪大量的已宣布和未宣布的并购交易及其他事件驱动型交易,以便在新闻发布时做出快速反应。他通过深入研究公司基本面和交易细节,来预测股票价格的潜在涨跌幅度,并根据市场信息做出交易决策。他不依赖技术分析进行交易,而是依靠对市场信息的深入了解。他会持续关注新的事件驱动型交易机会,并随着时间的推移,逐渐积累对不同公司和行业的了解。他最大的挑战是交易机会的匮乏,这会影响他的心理状态。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did Rick Bandazian Jr. transition from being an analyst to a trader?

Rick wanted an immediate report card on his performance, which trading provided. He found the analyst role too political and felt that even if he outperformed others, his compensation was capped.

What was Rick's pivotal moment in his trading career?

Rick's pivotal moment came during the 2008 financial crisis when he made more money in 20 seconds from a quick trade on a merger announcement than he had as an analyst in a year. This experience solidified his focus on event-driven trading.

How does Rick Bandazian Jr. approach risk management in his trading?

Rick has a mental P&L threshold where he sets a dollar amount that, if hit, prompts him to exit a trade. He avoids over-leveraging and focuses on having an edge in his trades rather than relying on strict position sizing rules.

What is Rick's current strategy for event-driven trading?

Rick focuses on merger arbitrage and event-driven situations, keeping track of around 75 to 100 announced deals and other event-driven opportunities. He reacts quickly to news and maintains a deep understanding of the nuances of each deal to capitalize on market inefficiencies.

Why does Rick avoid trading based on analyst opinions?

Rick believes that analysts are more focused on how smart they are rather than providing actionable insights. He has observed over his career that analyst price targets and directional calls often miss the mark, making them unreliable for his trading decisions.

What is Rick's intermediate-term strategy, and how does it differ from his event-driven trading?

Rick's intermediate-term strategy involves macro trading, focusing on identifying overcrowded positions (offsides) in futures markets using CFTC data. This strategy is different from his event-driven trading as it requires a longer holding period, position sizing, and a deeper understanding of market setups.

How does Rick determine when to enter a trade in his intermediate-term strategy?

Rick looks for market confirmation or a

What does Rick struggle with most in his trading career?

Rick struggles most with periods of low activity or

How does Rick's experience as a volunteer firefighter influence his trading?

Rick views his role as a volunteer firefighter as a way to give back to the community and fulfill a sense of purpose. This experience has taught him discipline and the importance of staying ready, which he applies to his trading by being prepared for opportunities even during quiet periods.

What is Rick Bandazian Jr.'s substack about, and how can listeners reach him?

Rick's substack, called 'Off_the_Tape,' focuses on macro positioning and market analysis. Listeners can reach him through the substack, where his email is readily available for anyone interested in discussing trading or his process.

Chapters
Rick Bandazian Jr., a seasoned trader, shares his career journey from a banking analyst at J.P. Morgan and First New York Securities to becoming an independent trader. He discusses his experience in the syndicated finance and equity capital markets groups, his transition to proprietary trading, and the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on his career.
  • Rick transitioned from investment banking to proprietary trading.
  • He specialized in event-driven and merger arbitrage strategies.
  • The 2008 financial crisis led to his layoff from a Canadian bank but also opened up new opportunities.

Shownotes Transcript

Rick Bandazian Jr., a seasoned trader with over 15 years of experience in event-driven and merger-arbitrage strategies, reflects on transitioning from an analyst at JP Morgan and First New York Securities to establishing himself as an independent trader. Rick emphasizes his deep expertise in anticipating market moves based on nuanced corporate actions and his methodical approach to understanding catalysts. Despite the fast-paced nature of his work, Rick maintains consistency by staying disciplined, even during market lulls. Beyond trading, he’s a volunteer firefighter, driven by a strong sense of community.

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