刘鹤：预计中国全年经济增长将超预期目标| China Expectedto Exceed Economic Target

Despite the threats posed by COVID-19 variants and supply constraints, China is on track to achieve economic growth well above its target this year with a controllable inflation level, officials and experts said.

多名官员和专家表示，尽管新冠病毒变异毒株和供应制约带来的威胁尚存，在保持可控通胀水平的情况下，中国仍有望实现今年经济增长远超预期目标。

Vice-Premier Liu He said China's economy has continuously recovered this year and its full-year GDP growth is projected to exceed the expected target.

国务院副总理刘鹤表示，今年中国经济持续复苏，预计全年GDP增长将超过预期目标。

Indicators of growth, employment, prices and international payments have overall remained at a normal level since the beginning of the year, Liu said on Tuesday while addressing the Hamburg Summit via a video link.

11月30日，刘鹤以视频方式出席汉堡峰会并发表主旨演讲。他表示，自年初以来，中国经济持续恢复，增长、就业、物价、国际收支情况总体正常。

China's annual economic growth target was set at above 6 percent this year. Having grown by 9.8 percent year-on-year in the first three quarters of the year, the world's second-largest economy is expected to achieve about 8 percent GDP growth for the whole year, experts said.

今年中国年度经济增长目标定为6%以上。专家称，中国今年前三季度经济同比增长9.8%，预计全年GDP增长约8%。

Kang Yong, chief economist at KPMG China, said the strong export growth had driven a continuous recovery in industrial production and manufacturing investment.

毕马威（KPMG）中国首席经济学家康勇表示，强劲的出口增长推动了工业生产和制造业投资的持续复苏。

"Despite the emergence of the Omicron variant, we kept our forecasts of China's GDP growth for this year and the next unchanged. It has been within expectation that new variants would appear as long as the coronavirus is yet to get controlled everywhere in the world," Kang said.

康勇表示，“尽管出现新冠变种奥密克戎毒株，但我们对今年和明年的中国GDP增长预期并未改变。只要疫情在世界各地未得到控制，就有可出现新变种，这都是在我们的预期里。”

Unless Omicron is proven to be significantly more contagious than the Delta variant, its economic impact should be smaller than the latter as vaccination rates have increased while the world has got more experienced in coping with the pandemic, Kang said.

康勇表示，除非奥密克戎毒株比新冠变种德尔塔毒株具有更强的传染性，其经济影响应该小于德尔塔毒株。因为疫苗接种率已提高，而且世界各国在应对该流行病方面积累了更多经验。

"I don't think the Chinese economy is facing stagflation," Kang added, stating that consumer inflation has remained mild while the spike in industrial goods prices has started to soften with the recovering supply of electricity and commodities.

康勇补充道，他不认为中国经济正面临滞胀威胁。他表示，消费通胀保持温和，而随着电力和大宗商品供应的恢复，工业品价格飙升已开始放缓。

As the tight supply of power eased in November, production in the manufacturing sector has returned to expansion last month, while the rise in input costs facing the sector has slowed significantly, said a survey released on Wednesday by media group Caixin.

财新传媒集团周三发布的一项调查显示，随着11月电力供应紧张的缓解，制造业生产上个月已恢复扩张，而该行业面临的投入成本增长已明显放缓。

Looking ahead to next year, the vice-premier said that China will maintain the continuity, stability and sustainability of its macro policy, make more efforts to vitalize micro entities, and provide a better development environment for small and medium-sized enterprises and foreign businesses.

展望明年，副总理刘鹤表示，中国将保持宏观政策连续性、稳定性、可持续性，进一步振兴微观实体，为中小企业和外资企业创造更好环境。

His remarks came as the market is awaiting clues about China's economic policy agenda for the next year from the Central Economic Work Conference, a tone-setting meeting that usually takes place in December.

刘鹤发表上述演讲之际，市场正等待通常于每年12月举行的中央经济工作会议会定调，提供有关中国明年经济政策议程的信息。

Hu Yifan, head of macroeconomics for Asia-Pacific with UBS Global Wealth Management, said Liu's remarks signaled that the Chinese government may moderately ease macro policy in the coming year to avoid any sharp economic slowdown, but aggressive stimulus measures will be unlikely given the emphasis on policy stability.

瑞银集团（UBS）全球财富管理公司亚太区宏观经济负责人胡一帆表示，刘鹤的讲话表明，在未来一年里，中国政府可能适度放松宏观政策以避免经济增长大幅放缓，但鉴于强调政策稳定，不太可能采取激进的刺激措施。

Meanwhile, the government is expected to remain committed to its long-term structural adjustment agenda and will continue to support key areas such as technological innovation and social welfare, she said.

胡一帆表示，与此同时，预计政府将继续致力于其长期结构性调整工作，继续支持技术创新和社会福利等关键领域的发展。

Specifically, China's central bank is likely to cut the reserve requirement ratio, which refers to the proportion of deposits that banks must reserve and not loan out, by the Spring Festival holiday, which will start at the end of January, according to Hu.

具体而言，胡一帆认为，央行可能会在春节前，也就是1月底前调低存款准备金率，即调低银行必须存缴的金额比例，这部分存缴金额不可用于发放贷款。

Meanwhile, considerable fiscal spending is likely to be directed next year into areas such as high-end manufacturing, green investment and smart infrastructure, Hu said.

同时，胡一帆表示，明年有大量财政支出可能会进入高端制造业、绿色投资和智能基础设施等领域。

With accelerated infrastructure investment and stronger consumption to bufferslowing property development, China's economy may grow by about 5.4 percent next year, a steady level compared with this year after factoring in the impact of last year's super-low base, she added.

她补充道，随着基础设施投资加速和消费增强以缓解房地产发展疲软，中国明年经济可能增长约5.4%。考虑到去年超低基数的影响，与今年相比，该增长率属于稳定水平。

重点词汇：

variant

英 [ˈveəriənt]；美[ˈveriənt]

n. 变种；变体；变形

adj. 变异的；不同的；多样的；易变的

year-on-year

英 [jɪə(r) ɒn jɪə(r)]；美[jɪr ɑːn jɪr]

同比（与上年同期数字相比）

contagious

英 [kənˈteɪdʒəs]；美[kənˈteɪdʒəs]

adj. 传染性的；（疾病）接触传染的

spike

英 [spaɪk]；美[spaɪk]

n. 尖峰；尖状物

v. 用尖物刺入（或扎破）；迅速升值；急剧增值

sustainability

英 [səsˌteɪnəˈbɪlɪti]；美[səˌsteɪnəˈbɪlɪti]

n. 耐久性，可持续性