cover of episode To Fight Another Day: With Guests Alex Imas & Mary Stockwell

To Fight Another Day: With Guests Alex Imas & Mary Stockwell

2024/6/3
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Choiceology with Katy Milkman
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Mary Stockwell: 我研究了美国革命战争期间，美国大陆军和英国军队在面对损失时的不同策略。美国大陆军，在乔治·华盛顿的领导下，采取了战略撤退的策略，在长岛战役和白原战役中，他们选择保存实力，避免不必要的损失，为将来的反击积蓄力量。这与英国军队的策略形成了鲜明对比，英国军队，特别是在查尔斯·康沃利斯将军的指挥下，倾向于在吉尔福德法院战役中孤注一掷，即使损失惨重也在所不惜。最终，这种策略导致了英国在南方战役中的失败。 我的研究表明，美国大陆军的战略撤退并非胆怯的表现，而是一种深思熟虑的策略，他们认识到，在战争中，保存实力比赢得每一场战斗更重要。通过战略撤退，他们保存了军队，拖垮了英国，最终赢得了战争的胜利。而英国军队的策略则过于激进，他们试图通过赢得每一场战斗来赢得战争，但这种策略最终导致了他们的失败。 总的来说，美国革命战争中的例子说明了在面对损失时，长期战略的重要性。有时候，保存实力，等待时机，比孤注一掷更能带来最终的胜利。 Katy Milkman: 作为一名行为科学家，我关注的是人们在面对损失时的心理和经济决策。Mary Stockwell对美国革命战争中不同策略的研究，为我们提供了绝佳的案例研究。通过分析乔治·华盛顿和查尔斯·康沃利斯在面对损失时的不同选择，我们可以了解到，人们在面对损失时，往往会做出非理性的决策，例如过度冒险，试图挽回损失。 Alex Imas的研究进一步证实了这一点，他的“实现效应”理论指出，人们对已经实现的损失和尚未实现的损失的反应是不同的。当损失已经实现时，人们往往会变得更加风险规避；而当损失尚未实现时，人们则更容易冒险，试图挽回损失。这与美国革命战争中的例子相呼应，美国大陆军在损失已经实现后，选择更加谨慎的策略；而英国军队则在损失尚未实现时，继续冒险，最终导致了失败。 我的研究和Alex Imas的研究共同表明，在面对损失时，理性地评估风险，并采取适当的策略，至关重要。盲目冒险，试图挽回损失，往往会适得其反。 Alex Imas: 我的研究集中在“实现效应”上，即人们对已经实现的损失和尚未实现的损失的反应不同。我的实验表明，当损失尚未实现时，人们更容易冒险，试图挽回损失；而当损失已经实现时，人们则会变得更加风险规避。 这种现象可以用前景理论来解释，前景理论认为，人们在做决策时，往往会将当前的状况作为参照点，并根据当前状况来评估风险。当损失尚未实现时，人们的参照点是他们最初的状况，他们会试图通过冒险来恢复到最初的状况；而当损失已经实现时，人们的参照点已经发生了改变，他们会更加关注避免进一步的损失。 我的研究结果对金融决策具有重要的意义。投资者应该避免过度冒险，试图挽回损失，而应该理性地评估风险，并采取适当的策略。定期回顾和调整投资策略，以及及时止损，可以帮助投资者避免因“实现效应”而做出非理性的决策。 此外，我的研究也适用于其他领域的决策，例如，在面对人际关系破裂或工作失利等情况时，及时承认并处理损失，可以帮助人们更快地从困境中走出来，并做出更理性的决策。

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Chapters
This chapter uses the American Revolution as a case study. It analyzes George Washington's strategic retreats in the Battles of Long Island and White Plains, explaining how these seemingly negative decisions were crucial in preserving the Continental Army and ultimately contributing to the American victory. The chapter highlights the unconventional nature of Washington's strategy compared to traditional European warfare.
  • Washington's strategic retreats preserved the Continental Army.
  • His unconventional strategy contrasted with traditional European warfare.
  • Retreats were essential to the American victory.

Shownotes Transcript

When you're facing loss—say, in a board game or during a sporting event or with a declining stock—it can be difficult to remember your true tolerance for risk. You're likely to seek risk more than you normally would.

In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman), we look at a tendency to seek risk in the face of losses when those losses aren't yet finalized, but how chalking up those losses and moving on can actually help you recalibrate your appetite for risk.

During the American Revolutionary War), George Washington) and his generals often adopted a strategy of retreating, or accepting losses on the battlefield, in order to regroup and live to fight another day. Their strategy was often successful against the British, who burned through men and equipment as they doubled down in their desire to win individual battles at the expense of their goal of regaining control of the American colonies.

Mary Stockwell) is a historian, writer, and former history professor at Lourdes University) in Ohio. Her work is focused on the American Revolution. Her recent book is titled Unlikely General: "Mad" Anthony Wayne and the Battle for America).

Next, Katy speaks with Alex Imas) about his research on risk-taking over time and how mental choice bracketing impacts our decisions in the face of loss. You can learn more in Alex's paper titled "The Realization Effect: Risk-Taking after Realized Versus Paper Losses." )

Alex Imas) is a professor of behavioral science and economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.)

*Choiceology *)is an original podcast from Charles Schwab).

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts).

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The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

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All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. 

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

The book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content.

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