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cover of episode Yemen: From Civil War to World War?

Yemen: From Civil War to World War?

2023/11/29
logo of podcast CONFLICTED

CONFLICTED
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
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B
Baraa Shaiban
E
Eamon Dean
T
Thomas Small
Topics
Thomas Small：本集回顾也门内战的持续和复杂性，以及其对也门和整个地区的影响。讨论了萨拉菲和什叶派圣战主义在冲突中的作用，以及与加沙冲突的联系。 Eamon Dean：分析了沙特领导的阿拉伯联军对也门内战的干预，以及西方国家对联军空袭造成平民伤亡的批评。指出空袭无法有效清除激进组织，并揭示了错误情报导致平民伤亡的案例。 Baraa Shaiban：详细描述了胡塞武装的统治模式，包括“监管员制度”、“观察员制度”以及对民众的严密控制。指出胡塞武装通过招募儿童士兵、进行灌输和勒索等手段维持统治，并揭示了国际社会干预的负面影响，以及腐败行为对和平进程的阻碍。 Thomas Small：也门内战持续八年半，阿拉伯联军取得了一些进展，但随后陷入僵局。西方国家对阿拉伯联军空袭造成平民伤亡的批评日益增多，胡塞武装利用西方对阿拉伯联军的批评，从而获益。 Eamon Dean：分析了也门战争中阿拉伯联军内部以及反胡塞武装力量内部的不信任感，以及海合会内部对也门未来的意见分歧。指出空袭无法有效清除激进组织，并揭示了错误情报导致平民伤亡的案例。 Baraa Shaiban：胡塞武装与萨利赫之间的不信任感最终导致萨利赫被暗杀。胡塞武装通过“监管员制度”控制也门北部地区，监管员负责招募新成员（主要目标是年轻人）、进行灌输和收取高额税款。胡塞武装还通过“观察员”制度严密监控民众，压制反抗。 Thomas Small：讨论了也门战争中国际社会的干预，特别是联合国在荷台达的行动，以及腐败行为对和平进程的阻碍。指出国际社会的干预阻碍了联军对荷台达港的控制，使得胡塞武装能够继续获得来自伊朗的支援。 Eamon Dean：分析了沙特和伊朗之间的和平协议，由中国促成，以及该协议对也门战争的影响。指出中国促成沙特和伊朗之间的和平协议，并非出于善意，而是为了自身利益（控制吉赞港，以获取阿拉伯努比亚地盾的矿产资源）。 Baraa Shaiban：对沙特和伊朗之间的和平协议持悲观态度，认为胡塞武装会利用停火来争取时间，最终目标是将联军赶出也门。指出也门需要建立现代民族国家，并需要国际社会的帮助，但国际社会应专注于国家建设，而不是仅仅提供人道主义援助。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The podcast discusses the precarious state of Yemen in 2023, tracing its descent from the Arab Spring revolution into a civil war, the rise of the Houthis, and the fracturing of traditional ruling parties.

Shownotes Transcript

The state of Yemen in 2023 is precarious. After the Arab Spring revolution descended into civil war, the Houthis have cemented their power over large swathes of Northern Yemen, while the traditional ruling parties have fractured and, in many cases, disintegrated. In this final episode of our mammoth exploration of the history of Yemen - and indeed season 4 of Conflicted - we bring things up to the modern day, stepping back from historical narrative to try and make sense of what has happened and what it means for the country and the region.

Over the course of this season, we've taken listeners through all the historical antecedents to modern Salafi Jihadism from Ahmad Bin Hanbal in the eighth century to Sayyid Qutb in the 1960s. We've looked at the Muslim Brotherhood, President Erdogan of Turkey, Iran, and their proxies across the region like Hezbollah. And now, as the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza continues, we can see so many of the themes and ideas that we've talked about this series playing out in real time.

This final episode, which sees us joined for the final time by Yemeni political activist Baraa Shaiban, attempts to make sense of current events in Yemen and beyond in the context of 

Salafi and Shia jihadism. We ask what the future holds for the Middle East, and what we can learn from the tumultuous history of the region as the world attempts to bring peace to the geopolitical situation of today.

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