How Helene and Milton were supercharged by climate change
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This could be the worst storm hit Florida in over a century. From President Biden on down, the warnings have been dire. Officials are saying, you've got to leave. Please go. This is simply unsurvivable. We've done this before. Hurricane Milton is the second dangerous record-breaking storm in less than two weeks. As we record this on Wednesday afternoon, Milton is expected to make landfall on Florida's west coast Wednesday night. We will have, before landfall, 8,000

National Guard for the state of Florida that will be activated. We have already on hand 34 different search and rescue aircraft. We've never had this many resources prior to a storm. That's Florida Governor Ron DeSantis warning Florida residents.

Like Hurricane Helene, which slammed into Florida and then plowed through the southeastern United States, Milton is predicted to bring massive storm surges, destructive winds, heavy rain, and the risk of death for those in its path. Tampa Mayor Jane Castor put out a blunt message. Helene was a wake-up call. This is literally catastrophic. And I can say without any...

any dramatization whatsoever. If you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you're going to die.

The damage Hurricane Milton could cause is chilling, but maybe it shouldn't be surprising. This season is looking to be an extraordinary one in a number of ways. That was Rick Spinrad, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, last May, rolling out the federal agency's annual hurricane outlook. NOAA is predicting an above-average 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Of note...

The forecast for named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes is the highest NOAA has ever issued for the May outlook. One big reason for that record-breaking hurricane forecast? Record-breaking hot water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico.

Now, the number of hurricanes this year has not yet broken records, but the intensity of some of the storms has been breathtaking. It's just an incredible, incredible, incredible hurricane. That hot water in the Gulf allows storms to intensify at unbelievable speeds, as Hurricane Milton did on Monday afternoon, a fact that moved veteran Florida meteorologist John Morales nearly to tears. It has dropped 50 millibars in 10 hours. Wow.

I apologize. This is just horrific. Later in that same report, Morales cited those hot ocean temperatures and explained where they came from. You know what's driving that. I don't need to tell you. Global warming, climate change leading to this and becoming an increasing threat. Consider this. As the planet gets hotter, so do the seas, creating ideal conditions for more violent and devastating hurricanes. ♪

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It's Consider This from NPR. Floridians have been preparing for the worst, filling sandbags, bagging up mementos, and inching along Florida's highways to heat evacuation orders. It's the second time in as many weeks that high winds, huge storm surges, and driving rain have threatened the residents of the Sunshine State.

NPR climate editor Rachel Waldholz has been looking into how a warming planet contributes to these storms and what climate change could mean for the future of catastrophic weather events. Hi, Rachel. Hi, Ari. First, Helene, now Milton. Are these two massive hurricanes in just about two weeks evidence that we are seeing more frequent storm activity than in the past?

So actually, no, we haven't seen an increase in the number of hurricanes hitting the U.S., but climate change is making many storms more intense, so more powerful with way more rain, more dangerous storm surge, more flooding. And so while the total number of hurricanes isn't increasing...

dangerous storms are becoming more common, and that can definitely make it feel like we're getting more overall. So let's get to the climate change piece of this. We know that a warming planet includes warming oceans. Explain why warming oceans helped a storm like Milton explode into a Category 5 as it moved across the Gulf before eventually weakening.

Yeah, exactly. So temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico right now are well above normal. And that hotter ocean water is fuel for more powerful storms. Basically, when the water is warmer, storms can suck up way more of that moisture. And that then falls as heavier rain. And as we saw with Helene, that rain and flooding can be some of the most devastating part of a storm.

But that heat and moisture also serves as energy for the storm. And so it makes it much more likely that we'll see the kind of rapid intensification that we saw both with Helene and now with Milton, where storms get really, really big, really fast. And that's especially dangerous because it makes it much harder to prepare and evacuate in time. Okay, so warm oceans translate to stronger storms. But there's another element here, which is that climate change

Yeah. So climate change is driving rising sea levels. And some of the fastest rates of sea level rise in the world actually are along the Gulf Coast. So that's driven by melting ice on land, like the Greenland ice sheet. But also as water gets warmer, it expands. So climate change is driving rising sea levels.

So then when a storm like Milton comes along driving this huge wall of water in front of it and water levels are already higher than they used to be, that's a recipe for really catastrophic storm surge. And right now we're seeing predictions of 15 feet of storm surge in some places.

There's a new analysis of Helene and how climate change contributed to the strength of that hurricane. It's just come out. Tell us what it says. Basically, the study found that climate change made Helene stronger. It dropped significantly more rain, and it was just more likely because of human-caused warming.

And a lot of that is down to these warmer water temperatures. The analysis found that climate change made those current temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico way more likely, something like 200 to 500 times more likely. Wow. So we're talking about higher storm surge, more rain, more powerful winds, all of which has a real impact on the life and well-being of humans who are in the storm's path.

Is there anything that can be done about this? What does this mean for people facing natural disasters? Yeah, so I mean right now everyone in the path should be paying attention to local officials, listening to evacuation orders. And I'd really stress that that's true for people who aren't on the coast as well. We just saw Helene cause some of the worst damage really far inland with flash flooding there.

And so the wind and the storm surge are not the only threats from these hurricanes. Heavy rain and flooding are also a big risk. So we just urge everyone who is anywhere near the path of this storm to be paying attention to local warnings.

But in the long term, you know, the U.S. needs to prepare to see more storms like this as long as warming continues. And ultimately, the only way to head off that trend of worse and worse storms is to limit global warming. And that ultimately means burning less fossil fuels. But am I correct that the intensity of the storms we're seeing now is a reflection of fossil fuels that were released decades ago? And so even if we stopped emitting carbon today, we would have to prepare for a future of more extreme weather events? Yeah.

Yes, we should be preparing now to see more storms like Helene and Milton. The kinds of stores that were really rare in the past just aren't going to be that rare anymore. It's NPR's Rachel Waldholz. Thank you. Thanks, Ari.

This episode was produced by Brianna Scott. It was edited by Sadie Babbitts and Courtney Dorning. Alejandra Barunda and Rebecca Herscher contributed reporting. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan. And one more thing before we go. You can now enjoy the Consider This newsletter. We still help you break down a major story of the day, but you'll also get to know our producers and hosts and some moments of joy from the All Things Considered team. You can sign up at npr.org slash consider this newsletter.

It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Ari Shapiro.

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