Separating election facts from fiction
Consider This from NPR
Deep Dive
Why is the 2024 presidential election expected to be extremely close?
Polling across the board has nearly every swing state in a statistical tie, meaning the election may come down to just a couple thousand votes.
What narrative is Donald Trump likely to push if he loses the 2024 election?
Trump is expected to claim widespread cheating and fraud, similar to his claims in 2020, alleging that Democrats are a threat to democracy.
What is the reality regarding non-citizen voting in the U.S. elections?
Non-citizen voting is incredibly rare, with recent audits finding only a handful of confirmed cases out of millions of voters. However, it occasionally happens, and there are serious legal consequences for those caught.
Why do some conservative commentators and lawmakers continue to push the narrative of widespread non-citizen voting?
This narrative is politically salient, especially in the context of the current immigration debate. It also has a small element of truth, making it harder to debunk completely.
What is the truth about mail-in ballot fraud?
While mail-in voting is marginally more vulnerable to fraud, there is no evidence of widespread fraud. Most instances are caught and dealt with at a local level, and both parties monitor the process closely.
What is expected to happen if Trump loses Pennsylvania or the overall election?
There is a full expectation that Trump will claim the vote was rigged, especially in states like Pennsylvania where mail ballots take longer to count and are likely to be predominantly Democratic.
How might the counting of votes differ in swing states compared to non-swing states?
Swing states might take longer to count votes, especially mail ballots, due to close margins and specific state rules. Non-swing states also see vote totals shift in the days after the election but receive less scrutiny.
What are some of the lawsuits targeting in the lead-up to the 2024 election?
Lawsuits are targeting various aspects of election administration, including voter rolls, specific aspects of mail ballot submission, and whether certain mail ballots should be counted.
How do Americans feel about the integrity of the upcoming election?
There is a mix of concern about voter fraud and confidence in how elections are run, with a majority concerned but over 70% confident in the election process. There is also optimism in the confidence voters have in local election workers.
- Non-citizen voting is incredibly rare, with recent audits finding minimal cases.
- Election officials have mechanisms to detect and prosecute non-citizen voters.
- The threat of losing the path to citizenship acts as a deterrent.
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