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付一夫
付一夫：根据2015年至2024年十年数据，春节前后A股上涨概率较大，持股过节 historically has been a good strategy. However, this year presents unique circumstances. The positive factors include the government's supportive policies, the expected recovery of the macroeconomic environment, the apparent end of the market's negative factors, and the optimistic outlook of foreign institutional investors. Specifically, the government's proactive fiscal and monetary policies, coupled with measures to boost consumption and domestic demand, create a positive environment. The economic recovery, particularly the strong growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, further strengthens this positive outlook. The market has largely digested the uncertainty surrounding the change in US presidential administration, and the valuation of A-shares has become more attractive. The positive stance of major foreign institutional investors, such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase, adds to the bullish sentiment. Despite these positive factors, it's crucial to acknowledge the inherent risks associated with holding stocks over the extended holiday period. Unexpected events can always occur. Therefore, I recommend investors adjust their positions based on their individual risk tolerance, balancing the potential for post-holiday gains with the risks of the extended holiday period. For those choosing to hold stocks, I suggest focusing on two areas: Firstly, cyclical industries that benefit from policy support and macroeconomic recovery expectations, such as consumer staples, real estate, and finance. Secondly, sectors related to technological advancements, domestic substitution, and self-reliance, such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, the digital economy, and industrial mother machines, which are expected to remain active due to national strategic priorities and geopolitical factors. Ultimately, a balanced approach is key, considering both the potential rewards and the inherent risks involved.
Deep Dive
春节将至，投资者面临持股或持币过节的抉择。数据显示，过去十年春节前后A股上涨概率较大，持股过节或为不错的选择。
- 过去十年春节前后A股上涨概率大
- 持股过节或为不错的选择
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