Deep Dive
Shownotes Transcript
NVIDIA is back in the spotlight, up 3% yesterday, as much as 6% overnight after reports that Trump is planning to undo the chip export restrictions that Biden signed into law just two days before he left office. At the time, NVIDIA said that the legislation would absolutely cripple America's AI dominance. Today, the company says that they welcome the new policy and direction of the
on AI. It has been a rough year for NVIDIA stock so far in 2025. It is down about 35% from its high in January, starting with that Chinese AI model deep seek that made people think that there might not be as much demand for NVIDIA's expensive GPUs. That caused the stock to drop 17%. Then of course the tariffs, remember $17 billion of NVIDIA's revenue comes from China. Tariffs along with new restrictions disclosed last month on the H20 chips
Those restrictions, they said, are going to cost them $5.5 billion in Q1. So finally, finally, some good news on NVIDIA. And today on Dumb Money, all of the reasons that we are back in NVIDIA. ♪
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this is dumb money live hey there dave here along with chris and jordan we are dumb money welcome to dumb money live quick reminder there's still absolutely no tariffs on the like button so uh put the almighty algorithm to good use there smash away uh chris jordan for me the biggest winner in the tariff war so far has to be the people who got into nvidia stock under 95 last month up over 40
20% from there so far. Cathie Wood and ARK Invest bought more than 100,000 more shares of Nvidia yesterday. Chris, I saw your post on X. You bought options just hours before the news broke that the Trump administration's planning to lift those export restrictions. Are you still in those options this morning?
I am in those and more. Yeah, in those and more. Dave, do you remember the talk we had prior to the NVIDIA news leaking yesterday? Was it like three hours before? What did I tell you? This is literally... It was like an hour before. And it has to be...
my biggest missed opportunity. We talked about it. And of course, of course I didn't get in. I had the order queued up in my Robin hood app, but Jerome Powell was on television and I did, I just didn't want to do it when he could say anything. So I didn't get in. And then, uh,
the next thing I know, my phone's ringing and you're like, did you see the news? Did you see the news? I'm like, oh no, it happened again. Dude, I was up until 3 a.m. the night before. It was one of those nights where I was like, what am I doing? Is this going to even pay off? This is crazy. I'm like, yeah, I have to do this. I see how it is though. Dave gets the call ahead of time, but
I had Jordan. I got the call afterwards. I got the flagging call. Jordan, I almost always speak to you before Dave. I had no, Dave, you know, I had no. I think we were talking about something else and you're like, did you, did you, I just loaded up on a bunch of Nvidia calls. I'm like, what was it? It's
The thing is, I had no idea that the news was going to break that quick. I thought we had a whole week. You weren't expecting the news. You were expecting just NVIDIA's been brought down so much, and you had a long-term thesis on NVIDIA being the backbone of AI. No, I didn't, Dave.
No, what are you talking about, Dave? That's not the conversation we had. We literally had a conversation about the diffusion rule and the trip out to Saudi next week that Trump was taking. On the exact leak that happened an hour later, that was my thesis. But the thing is, I thought we had a full week or at least through the weekend. I would say nine times out of 10, I would not have put the trade on right away. It's just like by pure luck that I actually put it on right away. And then that kind of like,
the opposite of what happened with Google yesterday, where I had been waiting to put on this Google short forever. And then some random person at Apple kind of
shares his opinion for this hearing about Apple losing all their market share to AI, the search to AI and Apple and Google drops. That, by the way, I think is the most interesting story. We should talk more about that later.
But let's first talk about the chip export restrictions, because it's not as simply as hitting the undo button. They're not just undoing Biden's policy. Trump says they're planning to announce their own new version of the restrictions. And China, we expect, would still be fully restricted. Is there any idea what that could look like?
Forget about China for a second. I'm going to just make this really simple because, you know, I spent hours upon hours just studying every single piece of information that is available anywhere on earth related to this chip diffusion rule and everything that has happened the last nine months going into this next week. OK, I'm going to make it real simple.
Trump is going to the UAE, to Saudi next week. Okay. They only want one thing more than anything in the world.
They want to be able to buy unlimited amounts of AI chips. Now, the Biden diffusion rule had three classifications. Countries in tier number one that could buy all the chips they want. Those were our closest friends. Tier number two, most of the countries in the world that could only buy a limited amount of AI chips. That's where the entire UAE, Saudi, they all fall into that category.
that to that tier two, tier three was China, Russia, North Korea. They can't buy any chips at all. Okay. So all that area of the world cares about right now, Dubai, they, they, all they care about is buying AI chips. They have pledged to spend $1.4 trillion. Okay. Into the U S and
in hopes that they can get this administration to get them knocked up to the equivalent of level one, whatever that means down the road, meaning they could buy as many chips as they want. They could actually become over the next five to 10 years as big or bigger of a consumer of these AI chips than China could ever be, okay? Using all of their energy and oil money because they have a strategic initiative
to be a major player, global player in AI. And they need to be the major consumer of NVIDIA and chips to do that. So this is a really big deal. So that's all they want. But do you see this being just UAE gets a special like classification bump or are we going to have...
Kind of like the tariffs where now Trump is going to say, well, every country needs to come and negotiate with us and get on whichever list we're going to put them on for chips the same way we are with tariffs. Is this just yet another thing that's going to be confusion in the marketplace while we wait for some –
announcement about countries. You're overthinking it. Forget about all the countries. I don't care how many chips Turkey buys. Okay. I don't care how many chips Spain buys. Okay. We're talking about where all the money lives, Dave. This is what matters. This is the only deal that really matters outside of maybe China.
Okay. Now, listen, it's going to be nice if Israel gets put to like level one. I think they're on level two right now, I believe. There are a few other countries, but this is what matters. Okay. So we know what they want.
Now, what does Trump want? Trump wants a win. He wants to look good. He wants to be able to shake someone's hand and smile on camera and said he just won. He's winning for America. Yes. And do you know what they know how to do? They know how to hand over the win better than anyone. Okay. And here's the deal. There's a long history between Trump and Saudi and the U.S. They know how to work with each other. This, I think, could be one of the most
obvious, obvious deals you could ever see coming next week during Trump's trip to the Middle East. Like I'm not, it's not a lock. Okay. It's not a lock, but in my world, it's as close to a lock as it gets when it comes to trying to predict what the Trump administration is going to do.
I think this is an asymmetric risk reward going into next week. So I had determined that by yesterday morning, and that's why I purchased those NVIDIA options. And then, of course, the news leaked that exactly what I thought might happen would happen tomorrow.
on a broader scale people weren't really specifically talking about the Middle East deal which is actually the really important piece to this story okay so I think that that piece is still in play I think that that piece surfaces over the next week going into that trip I think there's going to be a lot of speculation in the business press over the weekend early next week um I
love the risk reward of Nvidia right here we're not financial advisors my risk tolerance is extremely high do not mimic my I'm just sharing with you guys what I'm doing for me okay so what did I do this morning when Nvidia opened down did I doubled down okay that's what I do right I I I the the options you were in and doubled down on some new ones some fresh ones
I'm more than double down. I'm more than double down. So it's a huge trade for me. It's either going to work or it's not going to work. I'm putting myself out there. If it doesn't work, you guys could all rip me and say you were wrong. But that's the trade that I'm in and I'm in it through the end of next week or at some point, I don't know, some point next week, most likely. But
unless this thing really pops hard how about you jordan are you in nvidia have you gotten any any more into nvidia you're muted can't hear you yeah no i bought some on the news yesterday before did you it's called yeah the news came out and i'm like well i have to just i have to have something buy some after hours stock would you what'd you do no like the second the news came out i was actually on twitter and i just bought yeah
Nice. So I'm up in it, but probably not as much as Chris's options. Well, think about this, guys. I mean, just NVIDIA in general is kind of in the dumps because of the China story, the Paris story. I also heard, by the way, Chris, and you would know more about this than I would, that NVIDIA is trying to create some chips that would be...
acceptable for export control to China? That's exactly correct. They are working on something. Listen, do you know what would be great? What do you think the chances of this? If as a part of China and Trump eventually talking, they allow the H20s back into China. I think it's a possibility, Dave. I think that's what they're trying to do is they're trying to modify the H20
It's not accessible for export controls. H19. Dave, I think that's just like an extra cherry on top that they can figure out China. My head is not on China. My head is the market has come to the point where people are discounting China now being off the table for NVIDIA. So any positive news as it relates to AI chips in China is great.
I think going to send NVIDIA into the stratosphere, okay, if we happen to get that. But I don't think we need any positive news on China in the near term to propel NVIDIA. I think the market's just assuming the worst when it comes to China. If we can get this AI rule to actually open up more countries to be able to purchase unlimited chips. Now, understand this.
Only the countries that really care about AI chips are going to fight and bend in these tariff negotiations to get AI chips. OK, but I don't see any reason why a country that doesn't really, really want the unlimited chips doesn't.
aren't going to be able to negotiate their way to get there with this administration. And you know why? Because this administration doesn't really know anything about AI chips. Trump doesn't even know what the hell they are. Okay. So like, it's not a big, it's- If there's one thing we've learned about this administration is it's everything's for sale. That's right, Jordan. And they don't look into the details before they- You just have to figure out what the price is. Is it dollars? Is it, you know, we don't know exactly what that sale price is, but-
I found a quote. I found a quote. I don't know if it's verified from Trump because I was really trying to like look under every rock related to this diffusion rule that I found a quote from Trump saying,
asking someone why a certain country, it might've been, I think it was one of the Middle East countries, why they weren't allowed to purchase more AI chips when they were already cleared to purchase the F 47 plane. So like he, that's how Trump thinks. He's like, well, if they're cleared to buy the plane, can't they buy the chips? He's a, he's a very, very simple. Um,
Which, by the way, did you see that they've announced that Boeing is going to, or the UK is going to buy some Boeing planes and that stock is way up today? So you know what else I bought this morning, Dave? What did you buy? A ton of Boeing. A ton of Boeing. Did you? Listen. Okay. On that news, I'm guessing. On the news, on the news. And here's why. When this administration does something, what they're doing is they're showing you their template. Okay.
OK, so we're basically getting the first tariff deal today. So what they've what they've shared with us is their template and their template is whether they're going to admit it or not, is they're vying to get these countries to buy Boeing. So do you think this is the last country that's going to announce a Boeing purchase on agreement of a tariff deal?
Absolutely not. I got to own Boeing here. I got to own Boeing here, man. The second that news was released, within like 10 seconds, I bought Boeing. Can we talk about what we talked about? The reason we were on one minute late today is because I was making a trade. Chris told me that he saw our friend Amit tweet this.
It's a quote. Hold on, Dave. Where was I? I was in the shower and my phone was on the shelf. And I, I, every time I see an, cause I get almond alerts. Cause I don't, I think that, you know, that guy just stares at the, you know, his TV with the, um, what was the sticker still on it? Energy saver. It's got the, it's got the screen protector on it. The whole viral over that, you know, did he find that? Like, was that just like a, was he just messing with people? Yeah.
I have no idea. I read the comments on that. That is just... It's his parents. You can't blame him for not picking up his parents' TV. I'm going to have a talk with him about that TV, but I don't know if he really does still live with it. I think he does live with his parents. He does, and next month he's getting his first apartment of his own. He's very excited about it. He talked about it on a live stream. We clearly watch too much of his investing.
I love all of it. This kid is amazing. But I'm going to thank him right now. This alert came across, and Chris saw it. I didn't see it because we changed the topic for this show like hours before we went on. So I was making new thumbnails and figuring out what I was going to say in the intro. So I didn't even see this tweet. But Chris did and jumped out of the shower and bought options on the SPY transaction.
Trump says, as we keep getting trade deals, you better go out and buy stocks now. And the one thing I learned the last time Trump said to buy stocks is you don't just sit on that news. You just go out and buy stocks. Correct.
Correct. And I didn't even get out of the shower. I reach out, grab my towel. I couldn't see without my glasses. I can barely, you know, I make trading mistakes even when I wear my glasses. I didn't have my glasses. I can barely see the screen. There's water on it. And I'm just like, I'm buying SPY options, call options for Inspire tomorrow. I'm just buying them in chunks of a hundred at a time. This is boom, boom, boom.
And I got a whole ton of them and I was like, threw my phone back in the hamper and finished my shower.
But thank goodness. I will not shower anymore without my phone right there just in case. This is how you have to be with this administration. It's insane. This is going to be the next three years. It used to be, though, that the Trump alerts alone were enough. Now you have to have a whole separate app. You have to have Trump Social on your phone with alerts set up so that anything he says you see before it gets reposted to X.
The least favorite thing about myself right now is that I have alerts set on Truth Social. I'm going to make sure Amit's not streaming right now. Guys, do we really only have four thumbs up? That's crazy. Come on, guys. Four, not 27. Oh, my screen maybe isn't...
I just stopped streaming seven minutes ago. So he is available if we want to pull him into the conversation. Oh, we got too much. We have too much to talk about in too little time today. I forgot to retweet our stuff on. Okay. So I bought, here's what I bought today. Obviously I, I more than doubled down on Nvidia. I bought Boeing. I, I, I,
I went deeper in on Corsair. Okay. I already went deeper in on Corsair. I don't know, a couple of days ago, but I, well, on the drop on the earnings drop, but then I went even deeper because the reason, the primary reason why Corsair went down on earnings yesterday was because they withheld guidance due to the
potential tariff risk on chips only. They're actually not as exposed to China as I thought they were, but they are exposed to potential issues with tariffs on chips. I believe that will get resolved relatively soon. So I wanted to have a bigger position on Corsair at this level. You know, I sold a lot of my Corsair when it was up.
But I'm back in now at six and change at seven, just over seven. I'm back in Corsair. So that's kind of what I did. I also did those shower calls on the SMP. We'll see how that goes. But guys, NVIDIA, I'm telling you right now, I am so I'm feeling as good about NVIDIA right now as I've ever felt before.
about Nvidia in the last year. And quite honestly, I'm stunned. I'm stunned that the market is not seeing what I'm seeing on Nvidia. We had all the tech earnings. All the big tech stocks basically came out and said the thing we wanted them to say, which is they're amping up their spend
on ai right so all this is positive for everything's positive for nvidia with the exception of china right now it's actually insane to me that people are kind of sleeping but here's the thing about the china deal um yeah that's great but i think they sell everything they can possibly make no matter what i don't think they need china to sell
Jordan, over the long term, they always can ramp up. And with China, they can ramp up more aggressively. It's more pricing pressure. It's generally a lot. But really, they're limited to what TSM can pump out. Well, yes. That's their bottleneck. It's what's been their bottleneck is what can be produced. And they don't produce. More demand is always better when it comes to pricing. No, I get it. Pricing alone. So...
there is there is one risk factor that's kind of sitting out there for Nvidia that I don't think has been absorbed by the market yet which is some legislation that's going to get uh pushed through supposedly to actually require Nvidia to track each of their chips and to be able to remotely turn off their chips if they're in a region where they're not permitted to be uh now
we'll see how long that takes for them to kind of get that legislation through and enforce it that would obviously be a net negative because it would you know block the you know the chips moving around eventually getting we all know that eventually get into China right
and make it harder for that to happen. But guys, I'm telling you right now, if you look at what's happening, Sam Altman is about to get his $40 billion. He just wrapped up his deal. So he's getting the other 30 billion from SoftBank. So that basically solidifies a lot of the stuff that he wants to do. Amazon, Google, everyone is amping up their purchase of NVIDIA right now. Like it's actually insane if you look at the forward earnings.
on NVIDIA, it's ridiculous. I think the biggest issue
that's keeping this stock down is just the mental block that people have on how large a company can be today. And in my head for a long time, I've been thinking 10 to $20 trillion is coming. It's coming. I see it so clearly. I see 10 to $20 trillion companies. I see them so clearly. - Our chat is blowing up, people wanting to hear from Amit. And so producing live from the chair,
Look what I made happen. Well, there he is, man. There we go. Hopefully you made me some money today from the shower on it. Hopefully you made me some money. He's already made me money. Like literally one minute before we went on the air, based on your tweet,
Do we call them tweets? I call them tweets. I call them tweets. Text post. This right here caused me to make a purchase of some spy calls, and let's see if I'm up already.
yeah i'm up boom he's the ultimate signal right he tells us what to do and we just do it that's it yes don't you know so guys i'm up 243 percent i had a call yesterday with one of my trump guys okay and and i was asking him a bunch of you know a bunch of questions uh not to get any inside information but just kind of like state of mind questions and he told me chris
he goes trump's a simple guy he goes you know how he thinks stop overthinking it if you if you just think think how trump thinks and you'll know exactly what he's going to do more or less every day and that was a game-changing conversation for me because like in the back of my head i already knew that but to hear someone else that's in that world say that to me
out loud made me realize that that is 100% the way to think about this. Just stop overthinking it. You know how Trump thinks. We've been talking about how Trump thinks forever. He just wants to win. He just wants people to like him. He wants everybody to like, he wants, it's so obvious guys. We
the last 90 days. We have never seen Trump experience this much pain and dislike. We all know that he was going to do whatever it took to reverse that sentiment about himself. Okay. And so like, we didn't know exactly what he was going to say and do, but we knew he was going to do something
Do you see his comment today, Amit? You were the one that posted this as well on, wait, maybe you weren't, on it doesn't matter who made the first call to China. He actually admitted that maybe we made the first call. He's like, let's just get a deal done. That's insane. It's a total 180. Yesterday, he was saying, well, China needs to go back and figure out who made the first call. Today, he's like, you know what? Market's up. Everyone loves me. We got this UK trade deal. It doesn't fucking matter anymore. Let's just get the deal done.
And I think he wants to just move on with everything and get to people loving him again. That's, that's all you need to know. You don't need to go any deeper than, than what you just said. Like that's as deep as you need to go here.
Now, once everyone starts loving him again too much for too long, that's when you need to get worried. Okay. So like that's when you need to get worried because what we have learned is that Trump is manic in that way. So once he becomes too beloved and things are going too well and he's feeling too much power, he's going to use it. And often,
often use it in a way that's going to freak everybody the F out. Okay. So like, this is going to be a cycle that we're going to have to learn and learn how to trade for the next three years. End of story. That's how you trade. He'll keep testing the boundaries of, of popularity and then pull back. What's the next one? After the trade is done.
What's the next Trump freakout? Do we have any predictions? I've got one. Go ahead. What do you got? I think he's going to float the idea, and this is wild, of a sovereign default. Absolutely not. I think I saw the same video that you saw on TikTok. I think that was... No, I've seen a few. I don't think he's going to do it, but I think he could talk about it. I think he could talk about anything, but I don't think it's going to get any...
traction in terms of... It would be the most destructive thing he could possibly do. He won't do it. He won't really talk about it. Hopefully people like Vicent in his corner will say, no way.
They'll stop him. If he did say that, they would stop him. I think someone would step up and be like, no, no, let's not. Let's not go there, man. Can I ask a question? Did we all freak out way too much on April 8th just for us to get back to where we were because we knew Trump would eventually take back everything he said? Or was it justified to be a little scared over the past month based on this tariff volatility?
So we talked about this extensively with Graham and Jack. That was a great podcast. That was a good one. Yeah. Yeah. So it was long term. Absolutely. Yes. But the market had to do what it had to do because it to some extent, even if we all knew and even if we all agreed that it was inevitable that this would be resolved within some matter of months,
The market is still going to trade on the perception of something negative happening that other people would trade the market down. So I'm going to trade it down before they trade it down. And like even when everybody thinks something short term, it's still going to get hit.
in that way. So it was natural and I think reasonable for investors to de-risk themselves during that period of time. And also there is a meaningful risk that even if things do get resolved, they don't get resolved quick enough. And it does cause some risk
degree of economic instability that will impact the economy for some number of quarters, one, two, three quarters, because this administration is pretty volatile and they're doing volatile things that we've never seen before. And we don't really know exactly what the outcome of that is. And even where we are today, if this gets resolved,
we're in a place where the Fed might not be able to step in quick enough. They might be a little bit late. We could have a potentially bad holiday season because of all this chaos that's happening with tariffs and trade. Yeah, I agree. I think there's a bunch of damage done. And just because we see the market go green for what, like a few weeks straight now, I think there's still a lot to shake out, especially when you start to see what's happened with
imports, when you see what's happened with international travel. I think there are a lot of industries that are still going to be impacted pretty severely. And it's going to take a while to shake out and really understand all of that. And I see any of these freak outs, any of these shake ups, any of these market pullbacks as buying opportunities. That's that's it.
Also, guys, you have to remember, as we kind of get into the fall, there's a much higher degree that if what Jordan is concerned about actually plays out and we also are kind of beyond the tariff situation, meaning we have light at the end of the tunnel.
but we're still seeing that because of the damage that was done. That is exactly what Powell needs to see to kind of do the interest rate stuff that he needs to do, which would please the market. The market loves it when we have certainty at the end of a tunnel and they know, hey, we're screwed because of something that happened. It's going to be a terrible quarter for all these companies, but
We know they're going to be okay immediately afterwards. Plus, we have a better interest rate environment. I think that could set us up beautifully, actually, Jordan, even if the economy is kind of screwed. I think, ironically, the market might be in a really good place. Maybe. It really depends on how it affects things, right? So does it – if you see –
you know, shortages and things like that. Is that going to be temporary? They'll be temporary. Could be temporary. I mean, we still look, we still import a lot of things from China. And if that stops, because basically we've still got the embargo with China, you can have a lot of shortages continue on and companies not able to bring things in. And that could cause inflation, right? Just because supply demand, there's not enough to go around.
Okay, Jordan, China does need to get resolved. I feel that it will somewhat get resolved, but you've seen what's happened over the past- And no matter what, you've got input costs going up across the board.
in pretty much every industry call it 10 percent whatever it is you know even things that are manufactured in the United States have input costs that come from around the world agreed it is a net negative if we weren't going about to go through the biggest productivity jump in the history of mankind due to AI and automation robotics that's coming up but I somewhat agree with you
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So I think China, we're going to figure it out. It's going to be a little worse than it is today, but we're going to be way more diversified. And the benefits of the productivity economy we're about to get into will outweigh the negatives of this chaos and the stupid tariffs and all the other stuff happening right now. So I think in the balance of it all, it will be a positive, not a negative. Plus, if we get some interest rate relief, that will put us over the top. Good.
going into the end of the year. I don't like thinking about macro stuff, but that's my macro thought. Ahmed, what do you think? Are we buying NVIDIA? What are we doing with NVIDIA? If I told you how much NVIDIA I have... Now, what's fascinating about NVIDIA is it's the one stock that is kind of getting left out today, right? And that is really interesting to me because you have to ask yourself why.
Now, one thesis was there was a pretty aggressive unwinding of call options that happened on the market open. And it kind of set the wrong tone for NVIDIA because that unwind just killed NVIDIA on the open. And to some degree, maybe it's creating a bad trading environment and people are concerned and they have questions. They don't know why NVIDIA is not going up. Maybe there is a big seller.
I don't really give a damn because unless there's some meaningful piece of information that is beyond the next few days, that is a true negative for NVIDIA that I'm not aware of, I'm loving it here. I love the fact that it's getting left out of this rally. I love it. I don't even care if it continues to get left out over the next few days. I'll see it as an opportunity to go in deeper and
So you got heavy in it. October 2022, when chat came out, I think all three of you kind of saw what was happening before it happened. I'm assuming you took profits. When did you guys decide to get back in and say, No, no, this is going to go on for the next decade?
I mean, I've been kind of floating in and out of it over the last couple of years, but generally, you know, because I there's been there was a period of time when I was on the fence about, you know, the durability of these financial projections going out beyond another year. But
I've been obsessing over the NVIDIA narrative. Every person I could speak to anywhere that can give me any sort of differentiated alpha on the global AI situation, on chips, I want to hear everyone out on it. And I kind of came to the conclusion over the past month
That I'm solid with NVIDIA. I know all of the narratives that are theoretically negative for NVIDIA. The biggest one that we have not seen play out yet would be scaling laws starting to slow down, which we haven't seen yet. But if we do see that, if we get to a point where compute legitimately is not preempted,
progressing these models, that would be a negative. I do buy into the inference story that Jensen has been aggressively discussing, which is that we're seeing such a massive expansion of inference and NVIDIA has done a great job of moving the efficiencies in their platform over to inference now. Also, you're long bots, so you kind of got to believe that the GPUs are going to matter.
Bots are like a cherry on the cake. I'm not even thinking about, yeah, if you want to bring bots into the equation and embodied AI, billions of robotic machines that all have NVIDIA chips on them and are all aggressively soaking up inference because they're all working on autonomous machines
foundational models, okay, that are unbelievably sophisticated, way more sophisticated than the large language models that we're using today. Like that is the storyline for NVIDIA that starts in like
three years and goes out to like 10 years but that's not the storyline that Wall Street cares about today and the next 24 months for Nvidia yeah if you want to layer that storyline on that's why you might want to stick around Nvidia for five or ten years right as well the other the other the other potential one that I brought up before is the disrupt the potential disruption by
AMD and some of the open source software packages that are being created that allow you to run some of these LLMs on AMD hardware. Yeah, and I think there's a big market there, Jordan, right? Because CUDA is really what separated NVIDIA. And if you can get anywhere close to parity with some open source packages,
CUDA is what differentiates NVIDIA, Jordan, but what also differentiates NVIDIA is not what we're seeing today, but what we're going to see two years from today that they're working on behind the scenes right now that they're not really fully ready to kind of start promoting. And that's what everybody forgets. Everybody likes to focus so much
on today and not realize that the same team that brought us to today from NVIDIA is the team that's going to bring us tomorrow. You don't think AMD engineers are sitting there doing the exact same thing? I don't think they're doing the exact same thing because if they were, they'd be at NVIDIA, not at AMD. I'm not discounting AMD as a bad company.
I'm just saying. - No, no, no, I don't mean the exact same thing, but they're not, you don't think they're looking at Nvidia success, looking at some of this open source stuff going on that's making them viable and saying, "Hey, we gotta go full bore into this."
They are. And I think I'm going to trust that the team that was next generation at NVIDIA is going to continue to be the next gen team thinking about things that others are not thinking about because they're not trying to play catch up. They already are the leader and they're trying to forge the future. And once they release that,
then AMD is going to look at that and go, okay, now we got to react to that. And we got to kind of get to that same playing field. That's going to be my assumption. Now, if Nvidia doesn't pull that off,
It's because they messed up. But I have no reason to believe right now that NVIDIA would not be able to pull that off because they've been so flawless over the past five years in everything that they achieved. So I have to give that team the benefit of the doubt. I'm not going to assume that NVIDIA and AMD are going to be at the same level in three years. That would be a bad assumption on what we've seen the last three years. So here's the real question.
Two parts of this question. Which one do you hold over the next five years? If you have to pick one or over the next 10 years, Tesla and NVIDIA.
Which one would you hold over the next five years versus 10 years? It's tough, right? It's not an easy one. It's tough because if I have to pick one, if I really had to pick one, I would have to pick Tesla only be... Even though there's meaningfully more risk on Tesla, okay? Because I...
The only reason I'm picking Tesla is for Optimus. And they absolutely must execute on Optimus. I believe that they will ultimately execute on Optimus. But if they don't,
It's absolutely that was the wrong pick. OK, but if they do execute on Optimus, I would say there's, you know, meaningful, meaningfully more upside on Tesla than NVIDIA. But that doesn't mean I don't aggressively want to own both. I wouldn't want to have to be in a position of picking one over the other.
No, I would never pick one over the other, but I can tell you in my portfolio, I'm making a way bigger bet on Tesla than Nvidia. I did lighten up on Nvidia around the deep seek time just a little bit. And then I haven't touched it since, which timing worked out well there. I'm going to get heavier back into Nvidia, but I haven't touched my Tesla in years. So yeah.
right now. It's the depending on its valuation, it's it's either the first or second position in my portfolio as it goes down, it drops to number two sometimes, but it's, it's my it's my it's my number one bet. Jordan, we know what you're gonna say but said, it's obviously Nvidia. The problem with Tesla is you've got I know what he's gonna say about the car company, right? And
We've seen the brand damage that's happened. I was going to say, you're the one out of these three, Jordan, that actually thinks there's a brand issue, right? No. No. I think it's a brand issue for sure. You guys don't care about it. You guys don't care about it as much as Jordan does. He actually thinks it's, you know. I actually kind of do. I'm starting to care a little bit about it. I started to think about the degree to which
the brand issue would potentially impact Optimus distribution both at to consumers and to industry I'm not like super concerned yeah I don't I don't I wouldn't be concerned yeah I mean if you're talking about Optimus and I wouldn't be concerned about the brand issue because it's not at least for a long time and it won't be a consumer product it will be an industrial product
I think the biggest issue for Elon's portfolio companies that I won't get too deep into today, because that's our episode next week, is XAI as it relates to branding issues. And I don't want to talk about too much today, but I pull lots of data. I have big concerns on his ability to compete on user adoption of
of his llms long term because of the global brand issues of elon um in that space but but that's that's a that's not something that impacts most investors here today because it's private
But it does impact some of the other companies you could potentially invest in. And that was what we were going to talk about on today's show. And because we needed to talk about NVIDIA today, we are moving that to next week. So join us on Tuesday. Let's talk about Google for a second because this is important. This is actually really important. Amit, I don't know if you've been...
the degree to which you've been tracking what's going on with Google. But I've been obsessed with this narrative for a while. I have a really strong thesis that Google's search revenue, this goes back two years, that their search revenue is going to completely collapse. I believe that they end up losing anywhere between 25 and 50% of their traffic.
their search traffic. And I believe that the value of shopping integrations, advertising integrations into large language models is going to be monetized at a meaningfully lower rate than traditional search marketing. So I think overall they could, their, their search revenue, which is about 85% of their revenue, I believe could get cut because,
by about 50%, even if they are integrating it into Gemini over the long term. And I think that could be absolutely devastating for Google over the next few years. Ironically, I believe that Google is actually going to be potentially one of the largest AI powerhouses if we look out 10 years, 10 or 15 years. So, yeah.
I'm at odds, but I think short term, there is massive risk that's being overlooked in the market. I think that earnings call they just had was confusing because of the $8 billion Starlink gain that they had. We've seen this stuff in the past with Amazon and Rivian. And it's just shocking to me that the market doesn't focus more on those one-time gains. Yeah.
I'm seeing the cracks, guys. Yeah, I see the cracks too, but I'm more focusing on the latter half of your argument there that I think that they are one of the biggest players in the future of AI. And so I bought the dip yesterday. Jordan. When you see it get flushed out 10% because of a big search revenue hit,
you buy the dip i bought it well you got lucky because the market you could have also bought the dip three months ago and we're down 25 from there jordan they are not productizing their language model or hardly at all and i think that this gives all the other llms
the opportunity to figure out monetizing it before google remember back in the day when when yahoo was around and google figured out how to monetize faster than yahoo and now does yahoo even exist i feel like we're entering the era where google could lose they could yeah i agree but i still bought it i mean look they they're not i have to believe that they have enough people there that are watching what's going on everywhere else they've got the engineers right so the engineering talent is there
You're speaking like an engineer right now, dude. But they also have the business talent to figure out what's going on. No, they don't. You have to believe in Google long term. No, they don't. They don't have the business talent. They don't have the marketing talent because they basically- They have the eyeballs though still for now.
No, they don't. No, they don't. ChatGPT has 80% of the global market. 80%. Literally 80%. And Google doesn't have the other 20%. The other 20% is split between Gemini. I'm not saying for specifically LLM, but they still have visibility.
They have a brand name. They've got visibility. They are still, for many people, the default when you're looking for something. It's rapidly shifting to people using LLMs. Right. But that's not going to go to zero overnight. But I do see it as a huge risk for Google. And that's why I'm buying these. I agree. I agree.
I agree with everything you're saying. You don't have to convince me. I agree 100%. What do you think the market is going to do when the first quarter happens? It could be this next quarter for Google, by the way. When their advertising revenue actually starts to...
They actually start to lose. Could you even imagine what Wall Street's going to do to that stock? That's why the thought of owning Google frightens the hell out of me right now. You said a stop. You said a stop. What? You said a stop. You said a stop loss. You said a stop. I don't think a stop loss is a stop loss.
i i i agree with everything that you're saying it is very scary we've already seen search growth revenues for the past five quarters decline we went from 14 to 12 to 11. last quarter it's 10. it's still growing the growth rate of growth is declining and that's why i think the stock is trading at 15 times next year's uh earnings i have google calls i bought i followed pelosi i bought in the money 150 calls in january those are
and they're probably going to be tax loss harvested. The one thing though I agree with on Jordan is that there's other parts to Google besides search. So there's a lot of part of the moats like Waymo, Eptronic, all these different things that are being discounted, YouTube Cloud. The problem is 55% of the 90 billion they bring in is from 10 blue links. And based on how I know you invest, Chris, you don't give a shit about GCP's operating margins. You care about where the world is going. If you think the world is going to LLMs, it's hard to own Google.
well i just care about what the market is going to actually think so like but they're in the llm game also right so barely yeah so they're in it every search you do is now an llm result ahead of the blue links yeah yeah they just need to figure out how to get some advertising into their results faster and maybe they have a chance
Yeah, I was joking yesterday with Chase and we said that if we worked at Google, we would just shut the entire thing down and force everybody into Gemini right now. No, like right now, like we're just, you're gonna force it. And I'd give the team 90 days to figure out how to work those links in because long-term,
every point of market share that they lose to ChatGPT, every single time a human on earth starts to use ChatGPT, like I did two years ago, Dave, I told you I stopped using search and you thought I was nuts. Now, everybody's talking about the fact that they don't use search anymore because once they use ChatGPT for 30 days, they literally stop using Google. Making the default way to search in Safari be one of the LLMs that's whoever pays them the most.
they just have to force their people to say, you know what, you're now using an LLM instead of search, and you're using ours because you haven't switched over to ChatGPT. ChatGPT hasn't won you over yet.
It's absolutely wild. What's happening right now is so dangerous. What if Google implements an even better version of what they have now, where when you Google something, you get an LLM response? What if you could just start asking questions, follow-up questions, the same way you do in ChatGPT, right in your Google search result?
But then they kill their PPC business. It's done. And then they start slipping in some paid links as a part of the conversation from their LLM. Just like, oh, by the way, you might be interested in buying some link here. That's the thing. I think they're working on how to...
How to get people over to that without cannibalizing their own revenue. It's going to take time. It's not obvious at this point. It's not obvious. There was a time when search didn't have paid results, and we didn't figure out how that worked until like the 90s. Jordan just made my point. They're in a room that they're going to be in for the next nine months talking about it.
They're going to go through committees. And like, could you even imagine how many committees and stakeholders? They'll be talking about it in mid-2026. Meanwhile, they're just going to be eroding market share to chat GPT.
And maybe others. And I can tell you, as someone who I worked at Yahoo from 1999 until 2009, and I know what those meetings are, and I know how inefficient turning anything on at that size of a company can be.
Meanwhile, the engineers, once they tell them what to do, are going to tell them it will take 12 months and then they'll negotiate and they'll get them to do it in 10 and a half months. So by 2028, the solution at Google will be rolling out while most of the world has moved on to the next thing. That's the issue. They are not capable. They're a large, slow incumbent company.
And their incentives, the people that work at Google are not incentivized to do anything extreme or to take risks. They're more than happy to be the next Yahoo that dies over 20 years. Fortunately, they do have a really strong AI group.
that I believe in. I believe they probably have the best AI group in the world, actually, when it comes to technology and maybe not productization, but technology. And I think eventually when Google hits AGI first, I think they're in like the pole position to hit it first, them or maybe XAI. Uh,
By the way, on our episode next week, I have a thesis for XAI that is so freaking wild that if there is a theoretical likelihood that they could pull it off, if they hit AGI first, that will essentially make XAI the biggest company in the world. But I think it's I think it's a small likelihood, but it's a possible discuss it next week. I'm just teasing that.
Anyway, because Elon's the only nutbag that would actually attempt to even do, execute on this thesis. But,
Google is making some really bold bets long term with AI that I think could eclipse the entire search advertising market that they're in today. So Jordan, I do agree with you long term, this could end up- And so because of that, you have to step in somewhere, right? So I'm stepping in now, it could be wrong, but I'll sell it if I'm wrong. I'm not gonna sit here and like,
hold the thing down to 70 bucks if it goes to 70 bucks but you gotta you gotta take some shots on Google I think they've got the best technology of any uh of any major public company right now well here's the thing do you guys believe in Sundar I think that's the real question right no why no here's the well I don't I don't believe in anybody right but what I believe in is that
And this is the dangerous part about Google is they've not really been able to effectively monetize anything outside of search. Right. And so that's the scary part for Google. Right. So that's something you always have to ask yourself is that they've tried to get into like a million different businesses.
And they all just kind of flounder except search and search is where they make literally all their money. Yeah, I believe in Demis Hassabis at DeepMind. I believe when Google gets decimated at some point, likely in the next 12 months, and I buy heavily into Google, I'm buying it for the things that Demis Hassabis is going to create over the next 15 years at DeepMind.
So that I think is the really interesting piece of Google. I don't think the market cares about it today. I don't think they're going to care about it in 12 months, but at some point the bets that they're making are going to pay off. It's just not going to happen anytime in the very near future. So yeah, I hope it gets decimated and then I hope, you know, I hope the reverse happens over time.
Can we-- can we-- Oh, so somebody brought up YouTube. YouTube is-- yeah, sure, I didn't bring up YouTube.
But they still get all their money off of advertising. Here's the same model. The dirty secret about YouTube is I don't think YouTube's profitable. The amount of infrastructure and compute they, Google has to spend on for 5,000 hours of video uploaded a minute. It's great for the integrated ecosystem, but I don't really think they make money off YouTube. Also, they didn't build YouTube. They bought YouTube.
they've made youtube what it is though sure i will give them credit for turning youtube into a major entertainment consumption platform but to ahmaud's point there's no way it's a huge profit center for them because it is so expensive to operate dave they hadn't done much i mean they've had multiple leaders i believe at youtube we've seen come and go at google i i don't
I don't think Susan was in charge of it for the longest time, and only recently did she retire. So it's my favorite thing that Google does. Okay, but can we agree? Google search is still kind of by default what I use.
do when I'm not wanting to engage with a LLM. But can we agree it's a right time, right place thing? I mean, like what TikTok did was truly novel in essentially inventing a content social map as opposed to a personal social map.
video platform. So like you can look at TikTok and be like, that's novel and innovative and special. And the people that were responsible for that are truly frontier innovators. Okay. Like,
I'm not going to give Google that credit for YouTube. I'm not. They bought YouTube. They were there at the right place, right time. They didn't screw it up. But if we talk about search again for a second, I don't think search is necessarily 100% going away anytime soon. I use both. I use ChatGPT for certain things, but I use Google search if I'm trying to find products and I'm trying to find pricing and I'm trying to find those things. And it's
Almost like I'm saving Google money by not wasting with my random searches and only searching things that can be monetized. But Jordan, you're welcome. No one's saying it's completely going away the same way that some people are still go to Yahoo. No, but I think there's a use case for it.
There is a use case for it. But the use case is getting smaller. It could narrow. Yeah, it could narrow. And there might always be a use case for it, or maybe not, or maybe they're blended over time. But it's just so clear. And I don't understand why people didn't see how clear this was a year ago, two years ago. And I'm quite honest. Well, I think you did, and I think we all did here, because it's not like any of us have
have been jumping into Google, except for me right now. I bought it yesterday, but I haven't bought it before that. And I just look, I have 2000 shares of Google and I'm not planning to sell them, but I'm not buying more. Yeah. When did you buy these? It must've been years ago, right? It was about $200,000 worth when I bought it and it's up $100,000. So it's kind of like
I don't know exactly when. So whenever they were $100, basically, Google was $100? Yeah. So you just don't want to pay taxes? I don't want to pay taxes, and I don't have a hatred towards where they're going, but I'm not too excited about it.
Okay. It seems like the right allocation of my portfolio to have about 300K of Google. Dave, we're at an hour. Let's try to wrap it up. But while we have Ahmed on, is there anything? Because I wasn't mentally prepared to have him on. So I would have queued up some questions for him. It's great that we just... I checked and his stream had just ended seven minutes ago. So...
Glad that we could pull him in. You know, Amit, the reason we were talking about you is because you triggered trades in both me and Chris's portfolios today just from your coverage of the news, which is great. If you're not following, Amit is investing on X. You're missing out. Turn on the alerts for that. And his YouTube channel is amazing. I do have a huge question for him actually, Dave. Dude. Is it related to his TV? Yes. Could you just tell us, admit to us, did you put that on there for views? Is that fake?
is that engagement farming dude i i swear on my life i didn't even know the sticker was still there like we bought that tv in 2020 i don't know if it's an indian household thing or what we just never took it off and then everyone in the comments is not talking about me watching godfather for the first time they're talking about this sticker and then i'm like oh this is five years old okay so
This is wild to me. I'm not going to stop thinking about this for a very long time, Amit. And this is honestly going to define you in my head, maybe for as long as we know each other. I'm now actually oddly more intrigued with you as an investor because you
You know, there's something weird going on in your brain, which might end up being really beneficial as an investor. But it is super messed up. I don't watch TV. So I don't have the one night I sat down to, you know, I've got an idea. You have to take that sticker off live on on on YouTube.
I still on there, by the way. I just didn't feel the necessity to take it off. It's still you've got you've got you've got to do that live. Could you show the pic, Dave? Can you pull it up? I'm scrolling through. I maybe is it is it more of a like a cultural thing? Now I'm curious. Like, I'm going to research this. Is it a cultural thing?
thing maybe it's wild. Or you just forget about it. Some people just forget. And like when something is in front of you every day of your life, it doesn't exist. So I think the sticker just doesn't exist in their mind. But you've got to peel it off. We've got to see it. We've got to see it happen.
For whatever reason, I cannot find the picture. Dude, I can't find it. I think I tweet a little aggressively. I can't even find this thing. But no, it's not a culture. We don't have like... We don't have like plastic on our couch or something like that. Like it's not that. It's just...
I don't know. We never took the freaking sticker off the TV and everyone freaked out about it. And this is the second time because I posted another picture during Christmas when I was watching a holiday movie and there was a sticker on a TV in a different room. And it was a sticker on a Roku TV. And so Chad, who's one of my friends, he got annoyed because this was the second time that this happened on a different TV in a different room. And so he's more pissed off than you, Chris. He's like, why the hell do you not take the stickers off them?
I think it's because you have such extreme focus and probably your whole family is like this. I bet your whole family is so focused on the things that they are focused on, right? Whether it's family, career, like, like it's very impressive, quite honestly, because they don't have time to deal with the sticker because they got real crap going. What I want to know, what I want to know, I don't care about the sticker. What I want to know is, does the sticker,
Is it part of, and I told Chris, I might have a fetish about this. Does it like, is it,
Part of the whole TV screen cover. We're going to find out today. I'll take a video. So I can't find the original tweet. This is, this is how it's gone viral. And I was able to find the sticker sticker gate. Now also these fingerprints really bother me. And I'm wondering, is there a clear sticker across the entire screen? Yeah, that's what I'm getting at, Dave. I want there to be a clear sticker across the entire thing. You just pull it off and like, Oh,
Can you imagine how great that'll be? A small part of me thinks Amit's playing all of us and everybody and put it on there. I, I,
I really do. I might have this whole thing backwards. Look at him laughing. And he's just playing everybody. And he just casually had that on. It was a joke. And he's just going to let it run. I wish I was that good at getting people's attention. Can I give a shout out to you, Chris? Yeah.
One of the most watched videos on my channel is our Poundter interview when it was 35 bucks. And at the time, even I, I'm supposed to be the Poundter bull. I was like, this guy's off his rockers. This guy's buying at a hundred billion. I'm the guy saying Poundter to the moon. And you're the one saying, Oh, a hundred billion dollar market cap. No problem. This fucking stock has not only blown away my expectations. I'm sure it's blown away the company's expectations, but I think the only person that,
Maybe there's a handful of them that has been saying it's going to keep going higher and hasn't been as cautious as I've been is you.
And you just said, you know what? Forget everything. Forget the valuation. I saw the video that all three of you did and Dave and Jordan were pushing back as they should have on the valuation. And you were like, nope, this is just, it is what it is. It's balanced. So I was talking to Chris about this yesterday because I was one of the people that thought the valuation was nuts. Um, but I think what makes sense about it is that there's no public market for companies like this yet. And so it's like your only outlet to be able to invest in AI, um,
Let me tell you something. The most common comment that I got sent to me, I think even on that video, were Palantir investors that were ripping on me because I was so late to the show. They thought me buying Palantir... I think I actually started buying it at 28 and then to 33 or 34, like between the upper 20s to low 30s. And they thought that I was so late. Yeah.
And by the way, I was not just buying Palantir. I was layering in massive call options on Palantir at that price. And they were like, this is insane. This is toppy. This is like, you've lost. You missed the ride, man. We've been on this ride for eight. I'm like, and I kept explaining to them. I was like, no, no, no. I've been trading NVIDIA while you were trading. Like, I've been doing fine. Like, my cost of capital is extraordinarily high. So I...
But like now is when I want to play Palantir because I see the next lift happening as we get a broadening of awareness of what's happening at Palantir beyond the Amits and the small circles of the believers. It's about the transfer to a broader world of retail investors and institutional investors
capital markets who have always been skeptical of Palantir because of their CEO. But at a certain point, you can't be skeptical anymore. And I saw them like crossing over, right? We did our podcast two weeks before they got included in the S&P 500. Yeah. Yeah.
And I was just looking back at our channel. The first time we even mentioned Palantir, we'd been avoiding it because it was just too much to wrap our heads around. And I believe at the time, like...
It was just hard to get. And watching your channel is actually one of the things that got me thinking more about it. But it was seven months ago that we did our first video called Why Palantir is Our New Favorite AI Stock. And really, it could have just been stock because we just wanted to put AI in the title. No, but I just really want to commend you, Chris, because there's a reason you are who you are. And it is at the time, I'm the guy who's the most bullish on this thing, I think, on the internet.
And I'm listening to you saying, no problem. $80 billion market cap. What's the issue? Just buy it. And I wish I had listened to you more deeply because I would have gone in even heavier, but my valuation part of the brain couldn't really grasp what you were saying. But it's why you made a career the way you made your career on Social Arbitrage.
No, I still have a decent Palantir position, but obviously all those options are cashed out. I even cashed out a chunk of my equity. I have a good, decent position in Palantir, but I don't really watch it anymore day to day. It's not like my area of focus. The reason why is...
The dissemination of information and knowledge and acceptance of the type of company that Palantir is, is now widely accepted in the market.
in the market. Generally, that's always an exit point for me, but I still believe that there's a much longer term storyline here. It could take years and years and years to play out. Again, my cost of capital is high, so I don't have a huge position in Palantir anymore, but it's reasonable. I still think the company has a bright decade ahead of it if it executes.
And there might be times where I get back in heavier, but I appreciate that. It was, you know, you were obviously way earlier and we all learn from each other. And the important thing is I keep telling everyone, they're like, how do I get started in the market? I'm like, follow people that actually have a long history of putting themselves out there on things that are differentiated and risky and not safe to say.
And then when those things work out, you go, wow. Like, like, and you're one of those guys on it. So, so like, it's not that they always work out. They don't always work out for me or Dave or Jordan or you. But we're willing to put our ideas out there, even when they're controversial and not easy to say, you know,
So like you got to follow these people, not to, not to, to mirror their trades, never do that, but to help come up with ideas. Right. Yeah. And this is one of those guys in this business, whether you're managing money or you're content creating about your trades, like you're judged on your trades. It's just that simple. If you pick a stock when no one else picks it and you aggressively attach your name to it by trying to get your message out there and it works, it's,
people start listening. And that doesn't mean you're going to get all of them right, but that does mean you have some form of thinking about investing that's a bit differentiated from buying the S&P 500. And that's what builds an audience as well. Well, so many of the biggest financial creators, both on X and YouTube, originated from Tesla's days, right? Tesla, the ultimate narrative that
generally people didn't get and institutions didn't get, but a small number of people did and put themselves out there. And because of that, those are some of the biggest voices in finance today. It all originated from Tesla. So I like to think that fast forward 10 years, we'll see something kind of similar with robotics. We'll see if I'm right on that. But if we fast forward 10 years, I think we'll see something similar.
All right, guys. Dave, I haven't had my morning coffee with my dog yet, and she's like scratching at the door. Well, you're not going to have it today because it is no longer morning. Well, I'm having it. So...
It's happening. You're going to have an afternoon coffee. All right. By the way, I will always have my phone in the shower looking out for your... Yeah, I heard today. So you're listening to me in the shower. I love it. Yeah. Well, I'm not... No, no. I'm just looking out. I have the alert set on your post.
And I don't have a lot of people I get alerts from, but yours is one of them. So yeah, I see the word Trump or anything with exclamation points on one of your, I'm like, oh God, what's going on? And I'm like, I don't care if I'm showering, if I'm sleeping, like I got to read it.
That alert system needs to have a filter for how many exclamation points. If it has more than three, then break through everything and make it a, you know, Apple intelligence critical alert. All right. That's going to do it for this one. Thanks so much, Amit, for jumping in. Completely unscripted and unprompted. You know, it's so good to be able to get the CEO of AK Media on at a moment's notice like this is special.
Next week's show is going to be huge. We invested in a sociopath, maybe. You're going to want to hear who and why.