Capitalizing on Chaos
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the trade war with china is intensifying both sides have ratcheted up tariffs to unheard of levels you might have seen some of the viral tick-tock videos from chinese factories over the last few days they are exposing the fact that much of our luxury branded stuff is made in china from handbags to apparel to watches and the videos are showing you how to directly buy from the factories because even after paying the massive new tariffs

The factory direct price is still going to be a small fraction of what the major brands are selling the same thing for. Of course, they're selling similar products with the same materials and manufacturing, but without the brand labels. But some are starting to talk about a potential retaliatory measure that the Chinese government could hit us with, the idea of China legalizing counterfeiting. In recent years, China has actually been cracking down on counterfeit products coming out of the country online.

But could the trade war push them to take a drastic measure? Some counterfeits are identical to the real thing, made in the same factories by the same people. And if China were to stop policing that, it could destroy not only U.S. brands, but the owners of intellectual property all around the world. So is it time to proactively protect our portfolios from Chinese knockoffs? Or is there a bigger story here? Today on Dumb Money, how investors might be the real winners of the trade war.

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Hey there, Dave here along with Chris and Jordan. We are Dumb Money. Welcome to Dumb Money Live. Quick reminder to smash the like button for the almighty YouTube algorithm. And I can tell you with 100% certainty that the like button is authentic. It is not a cheap Chinese knockoff, but just about everything else you'll interact with whilst smashing said like button was made in China from your phone to the cell tower, to their routers, to the server, all of it. So

So smash away, make market screen again. Chris Jordan, closer to home. We were talking about this before we went on. It's tax day. I hope you got your extensions filed and shipped off some money to the government guessing how much you think you might owe. I know I did. And that whole system is crazy where I literally don't have all the paperwork. I don't yet know how much I owe.

Because, you know, the kind of companies we invest in are so unpredictable. So, yeah, I shipped some money off to the government. Yeah, I think... Samesies, Dave. I shipped some money off in January and I shipped some more off today. I made a guesstimate. We'll see how good it is. I have no idea. And then it becomes like your job to try to shoehorn in everything to make your guesstimate accurate after the fact? Yeah.

it's the worst system by the way i think it impacted the market negatively this week i think people forget how big of a tax gain year last year was for investors with capital gains people aren't selling today to you know or yesterday i mean it takes a few days to settle everything get the cash out jordan you're that you're missing the bigger point someone said that to me yesterday i was like it's it's not that i'm selling stock it's

It's that when you are faced with a massive wire going out of your brokerage account, you knew that last Thursday, last Friday, Monday, you're preparing to send that wire. That is psychologically impacting your trade decisions in a monstrously big way. Oh yeah. Yeah. You've got less money now. Yeah. You have less money. It impacts all sorts of decisions. Like I'm planning a vacation for May and I'm just now like all of the like, you know,

hotels and stuff that I've already booked. They're hitting my credit card. I'm going, why am I living so extravagantly? This is ridiculous. I don't have this kind of money. Exactly. And I think it had a massive impact on the market over the last few days because I know I'm not the only one out there. When you know your face with pulling out, call it 5%, 10%,

15% of your portfolio to pay taxes that that is going to make you get a bit less aggressive in terms of your positioning in the market and, and, and more cautious and,

at least temporarily while you're psychologically going through that. And it happens every year, but some years are way bigger than others. And this is a huge year for cap gains from 24 taxes, monstrously big, by the way, happening at the same time that we're seeing a massive market pullback. That is, that's not a good combination of,

for your psyche at least not mine it's not a good look right and I know I'm not alone in that but can we talk about this counterfeiting story because this has bugged me so much I know Jordan you kind of surf surfaced it for us it looks like the report initially came out in the Glitz this is your source material the Glitz

It's not just, I don't know what the, what is the glitz? First of all, I know what TikTok is and I know what XR is. The glitz was the source material. I don't know. It's some sort of,

I don't know. Because this is the guy that I've seen. Do you recognize this style, this bag? Of course you do. For the past more than 30 years, we have been the OEM factory for most of the luxury brands around the world. Gucci, Prada, Coach, Louis Vuitton, you name it. But for this, I am not proud because we were only making our wages. The profit margin for the people who are actually making the bags are very low.

What I'm really proud of is that first we have the best quality control. Two, we have the best craftsmanship. You know, Chinese craftsmen are always intelligent and diligent. Three, we have the most complete supply chain. We always... All right, we don't need to listen to the whole thing. Okay. He's just, he's just, he's a salesman, right? But I think that there was, there were some reports that...

came out apparently Chris found one glitz I saw you know kind of secondhand people reporting on these basically saying that you know hey you you know Trump Swallowers you're gonna you fafode and now you've unleashed the Chinese government and they're just gonna you know they're just gonna copy every single American brand and sell it to Americans for cheap right and so that's kind of the

It's fake news. It's completely fake. Gucci bags are not made in China at all. All of this is fake news. These are hustlers out there defrauding people on TikTok. I had never seen my TikTok logo. There's a few things going on. One, yes, you're right. So like anything where they say this is...

the same product that lululemon or hermes or whoever whatever the name brand it's the same product you can just get it without the

without the logo and it's going to be the same quality that's 100 a scam but there are there are a lot of brands that do there are legitimate brands that are out of china that are very inexpensive just go to the team you they don't pretend to be lulu but they'll you know have lulu somewhat styling with their own weird branding on it the quality is not nearly as good but they're crazy cheap

Okay, no, no, no. That's always existed. What I'm trying to say is this whole storyline about China allowing counterfeiting all of a sudden is completely made up. That is not a true story. Well, I will just say...

nothing's changed. Like there's nothing new. Right. Nothing's new. This whole story is fabricated. And then there's a bunch of sellers in China that are jumping on the bandwagon wagon and they're on Tik TOK. My whole Tik TOK feed for like 48 hours turned into Chinese pretend. Like I make all the products for Gucci, but now you can buy them from me direct. Like it's so ridiculous. Can I show you my favorite one though?

Have you seen Donald Trump selling his sign production? Have you seen this guy? No. You have to watch a little of this. China, China, China. Get your LED sign with factory prize in China. Who doesn't like a shiny gold LED sign?

The combination of acrylic and metal makes your logo look more luxurious. Our LED sign is C and U L-C-T-I-F-I-C-A-T-I-O-N. And we offer three years warranty for it. The DHL or FedEx will deliver it to your house no matter where you are. Priced depending on the size you need. Send your logo to us and get a quote and follow LC Shine.

China, China, China. What did he say with my FYP that I haven't gotten that guy? Okay, that guy is great, and I would buy that product in a millisecond. That actually looked really cool. That's my favorite one. Dude, he deserves every dollar he's going to pay. If you see a gold dumb money sign behind me in six to eight months, whenever it ships, you'll know where it came from. If you ever get it. I think this is...

I think this narrative is relevant for the title of this episode, though, which is Navigating the Chaos. I have one massive regret that came with every major market crash going back 30 years. And

And that one regret was over trading, was thinking that I had a good sense of the intraday movements of these volatile moments. Right.

And it's actually extremely difficult to call day to day. I always, always, I always over trade. It ends up costing me a lot of money. I try to hedge too much. I try to play the news cycle too much during these events. And I'm not doing it this time. I'm not.

For me, listen, guys, there are a lot of narratives out there right now. We should talk through some of them because none of them are as clean as you think. I see investors talking about the American minerals trade, investors talking about shorting airlines because of the coming recession and no one's coming to America anymore. Well, I've looked into every single one of these narratives. And once you actually start going in deep on research and

There's a counter narrative that's just as good. Like the stocks that popped on the U.S. mineral trade, you know, we can we can kind of list them off. The reason why some of those are down today, like MP Materials, right, TMC, right.

There's now a concern. There's a long history with some of those CEOs diluting into events like this and they'll issue more shares, right? And then everybody just gets knocked back down.

Also, we don't know exactly how this is going to play out with the mineral trade. You know, obviously, we saw a big dip in the data of people coming to the U.S. or with intent to come to the U.S. on airlines. You know, United's a big one. They have earnings today, I believe, United after hours. Well, United already took a pretty big dip. So the question is, how bad is it actually going to be for United? Because it could be pretty bad.

And the valuations there are fairly reasonable at these levels. So it's hard to assess kind of how each of these narratives are really going to play out unless you're really quick. There was a moment when you should have shorted, you know, United. There was a moment where you could have quick traded MP materials. I think the game here, if you want to play it, is you got to get on true social like Jordan did.

And you have to try to fast trade this stuff. And you got to be on it. You got to be on it. You got to be on it, though. My problem is I ride bicycles. And so I'll be out for a two-hour ride. Miss a truth. I hate it. Just call it a trump. You miss a trump. Yeah, I miss a trump. And when I get home, the trade's already happened.

dude I I'm trading less but I do have uh an investment thesis here and it's it's finding that level of leverage in your portfolio or for others that don't trade with leverage um finding the right balance between risk assets and non-risk assets could be cash or treasuries that

you're kind of going to be okay with however this plays out in the short run over the next coming days and weeks. There should be no moment in time where the market moves and you're like, oh, I really screwed up because I just had too much cash, or I really screwed up because I was over levered, or I was fully invested and now I'm not

psychologically able to handle a hit like this over the course of a few days. And if it gets much worse, I'm going to be forced into selling

equities that I know I want to own a year from now, two, three years from now. That's a really difficult process for investors to go through. Sometimes it takes a couple of weeks to figure out what stocks do I really need to own? How much of them do I need to own? How much cash do I need to have to feel comfortable with my risk and non-risk portfolio mix? And

I think I'm at that point right now. I'm comfortable in my mindset. I'm not going to do too much of the quick trading, Jordan. I might do a little bit of it for fun just so I could feel the dopamine. Just to feel something. Yeah, to feel something, right? The gambling addict in you needs to have some money on the line. By the way, that's a really good psychological –

uh a tip for Traders that it sounds really stupid but it actually works if you're accustomed to putting you know low six figures in an options trade like I do on a regular basis that's probably not the smartest thing to do every day with this kind of volatile I would call it um

new cycle. So maybe you just put 10,000 in or 20,000 in for someone like me. For someone else, that could be 100 or $200 as opposed to $2,000. You

You kind of get 70% of the dopamine hit, if that's what you're going for. And you're reducing your volatility and risk by 90%, right? So it sounds dumb, but it does work. I've been doing it for a long time and it does work. What my mindset is right now is I want to focus more guys on

What do I think I need to own when this is over? If this is over in a week or if it's over in three months or four months or five months, I want to make sure that if there are three or four or five companies that I just have absolute conviction in over the next two to four years, I can't be caught off guard and not own enough of those stocks.

That's where my head's been at. And are you at all nervous about any of your core holdings as we're in the middle of an accelerating trade war that we don't really like your core holdings being like the big, big mag seven type Tesla, Apple, Amazon? Are you worried about them short, medium and long term?

I'm not worried about I'm really excited about them Dave long term short term I'm completely uh I mean I have no conviction in what's going to happen short term on any of those big stocks on you know you know I've been talking a lot about Robin Hood I love Robin Hood but I don't love Robin Hood for the next three months next six months I love Robin Hood for the next three to six years um

I have no clue how their earnings are going to play out this quarter. It's been a really rough quarter for crypto. So far, we've actually seen a little bit of positive news from the brokerages because of the increased trading, I guess, on equities. I don't know how much that will benefit Robinhood and if it can make up for the losses I think they're going to have to take on crypto trading being down this quarter.

But I don't really care, right? Like I'm thinking about Robinhood for the next three to six years. So if Robinhood falls to 30 bucks a share again, $31 a share like it did, my leverage is low enough now that I can afford

to go in a little bit deeper into Robinhood if it takes a major hit on earnings. I feel the same exact way about Nvidia. I feel great about Nvidia. My leverage is down. I own enough of it that I can live with myself.

If this whole thing ends in the next few days or a week or two and NVIDIA rockets up, I'm happy with that. But if we get into a recessionary period where the entire market comes down, if the administration continues to do

crazy things and say crazy things twice a day. It seems like, uh, and, and, and stocks like Nvidia get depressed more. I'm happy with that as well. I can go in a little deeper after if we get another massive hit in the market over the next few weeks.

Does that make sense? Like, it's just, it's a finding that balance. I know it's not sexy, but like, that's where my head is at right now. Do less. Don't pretend that you know exactly how this is going to play out unless you're in, in Trump's family or like his four inner people, five inner people in his administration. They might not even know how this is going to play out. Half the time. You're not on the group chat. Well,

Well, they're telling you one thing, not realizing that Trump's in a news conference in the next room saying the exact opposite thing. How do we as investors think we know how this is going to play out every day if Trump's number one and two guy are completely flabbergasted because Trump's saying something opposite to them in the next room over?

So other than the potential for small amounts of fast trading on some of these brands that might be affected by counterfeiting, are there any of these companies that you're interested in long term? I'm thinking of like the LVMHs, the Adidas, Nike, Lululemon.

so here's the deal dave in prior to this episode i went and pulled a lot of data um on a lot of the retail stocks and i really wanted to find something i wanted to find something that was like wow this company is actually doing really well right now or doing really bad and the data was all over the place

After a few hours of pulling web stats and credit card data, looking at socials, like I did not see enough in anything to get super excited about.

about anything right now or want to short anything. I think it's really hard as an investor to admit when you don't have alpha. And I think no one ever talks about that. And we all think that we have to have a big trade every week. And that's a disease, okay? That's a disease for investors to have. You have to come in sometimes and say, you know what? I did all my homework.

I'm out there trying to evaluate all the change that's happening in the world. By the way, someone in our Discord I read this morning said, guys, there has to be so many trades right now because Chris always says that when there's change, there's opportunity. Well, I'm not actually sure if there is going to be any change from all of this chaotic

tariff trade war mess Jordan do you know what I'm saying like I don't know if this might all end with just some moderate tariffs on a few countries with a lot of exceptions and at the end of the day it might not actually look that different so I'm not even sure we're getting that much change by the way I know everybody hates America right now no one wants to travel to America

But you know what? That might change too. Like if we end up mentioning over the next 10 days, these, you know, it's 10 days. Over the next few days, they keep talking about 10 countries that we basically have finalized tariff deals for. Well, what if we come out and we start Trump,

Trump does a reversal and starts praising France and Germany and Italy and UK and all these companies in Taiwan and Japan for being so kind and being so smart. And their leaders are spectacular and their people are beautiful, right? Like, and all of a sudden people like, screw it. I want to go to Miami this summer, right? Like,

I don't know if we're actually going to get much change out of this because Trump is so manic. He could be doing a full reversal. Have you already seen the way that they're teasing us right now saying 100% certainty there's going to be no recession? Oh, by the way, the government can do things like buying back in the treasury market and stuff like that. I think they're going to do whatever they think they can do to save this market pretty soon because Trump,

I think was rattled in a massive way. We talked about this, Dave, when we did the iced coffee podcast. I think he was rattled by that. And he's not admitting it necessarily, but I think he's going to try to save this market. I'm already starting to see more and more. He did mention that the bond market was a mess, right? And I think that that's kind of what they have to pay attention to because they know they've got issuance coming up.

Yeah. And also, Jordan, you know, they're talking more and more about stimulus type stuff about now we're going to work on focus on tax cuts. And I think they really lost the investor community, the big money. Right. They lost the faith of all the big money. And internally, I think they realize they need to get it back. They need to win back.

us, maybe not me, but they need to win this community back. So I think there will be a reversal of the conversations that they're having in the media pretty soon. I think within weeks that happens. What I'm saying is there's a lot of uncertainty here. I don't know that we're going to actually get change. So I don't know if there's any huge opportunities. Maybe just

do less and keep, keep researching. I didn't find anything interesting in the data sets guys. Jordan, how about you? Have you found any, any trades that, that you're making on, on the fence about thinking about making related to any of the trade war and or counterfeiting? Uh, relevant to those? No. I mean, I'm not really rushing out to buy retail stocks. I mean, I, you know, we've

We've looked at Nike, we've looked at some of these that have gotten battered. Restoration hardware has gotten destroyed. But I'm not rushing out to buy them because I don't know what the future holds for trade with all of these different countries. And not only that, just the brand hit in foreign countries too. So even if some of these tariffs get knocked down, are people in China going to rush out and buy a pair of Nikes? I don't know. This might have ignited some sort of nationalism,

within China or within all these other countries too. So did that make a hit to some of these big U.S. brands? So I don't know what I'm going to do with some of these big U.S. brands. Like I said, I'm not buying the dip on them right now. Dave, are you doing anything actively? No, I'm staying away from it. I did a lot of research. I figured out which... I had Grok give me a table of its best estimate of...

All of these brands that I've heard mentioned in TikTok videos, what is their parent company? What is the best estimate you can come up with of how much of their stuff is made in China? I just didn't see anything that stood out. Some of them are 50%, 75% of their stuff is thought to be made in China. But even so, I don't see enough of a risk to want to go short

Anything right now. So I'll tell you what I see is the biggest opportunity here. When you have when you have noisy times like this, where there's every day, the news cycle is capturing the attention of capital markets and it's entirely focused on geopolitics and the president, his administration, macro tariffs, the Treasury and

I think that something else that's much larger is happening and no one's really paying attention to it. I think we would be paying attention to it if not for this tariff cycle. The momentum in artificial intelligence over the past three weeks has been, I think, some of the strongest that I've seen.

Over the last two years. I don't know how much attention you guys have been paying to the daily updates we're getting. And Sam Altman is bringing us more updates this week from ChatGPT.

It's astonishing. Like, it's absolutely astonishing. I would say if you had 10 different scenarios for how AI can play out with zero being the worst, it's all fake and 10 being, wow, we are...

accelerating towards AGI and productizing AI through every company on earth. We're at eight, nine or 10 right now, based on the last few weeks. It's that type of trajectory. If I could just figure out which version of ChatGPT I should be using because the numbering is so confusing. How is 4.1 after 4.5? That makes no sense to me.

So Dave, they're going to fix that with ChatGPT 5 and they're going to wrap everything into a single, one single ChatGPT. And it's going to be five? Yeah. But then when they come out with ChatGPT 2, shouldn't that be better? No, they're going to change the entire model for how we interact with it. Starting with ChatGPT 5, it's just going to be one model.

model. That's it. I will tell you that I did consult my tax attorney, which is basically ChatGPT 4.0 and Grok at the same time. And I had them both answer the same questions. And I personally found Grok to be more useful. It was more willing to just tell me what numbers to put in fields after sending them screenshots of forms.

Yeah, I mean, it's fine. I just think we're seeing this sector accelerate and that should be our focus as investors right now. That's why I'm not really I don't really care that much about retail. This is so important.

By the way, did you see, do you believe NVIDIA's announcement this week that they're going to invest half a trillion dollars right here in Dallas? They're calling it a supercomputer, but it's actually a data center, an AI data center. I don't really understand what it is. I haven't really looked into it deeply. All I know is what I read in the Trump about it.

I don't necessarily believe it. But guys, no, getting back to this, I think it's a storyline that will start to pick up again once we're past tariffs. Because if you're not...

following this storyline on a daily basis, you're missing the actual real change that's happening in the world. And it's entirely in technology and AI. So that's where I'm going to spend almost all of my research today.

bandwidth the next few weeks is trying to deeply assess. Again, I'm continuing to try to understand who are the winners and losers. I keep coming back to NVIDIA over and over again in this space. And the reason why is because I'm starting to understand more and more what people have been saying, which is no matter how efficient these chipsets get,

the demand for bigger companies

There's always going to be demand for more. And there's always going to be demand for whatever they come out with next. And there's always going to be a demand problem. I think for many years, like we're not talking about quarters, we're talking about years. And if we're talking about years of raising the ceiling on what we could even think about doing with AI, there's a company that Google is backing in the

the UK that is focused on, and this is Demis Hassabis' life dream, to basically solve every single disease on earth with AI. I think they raised a few billion dollars recently. But that's a company I want to talk to you guys about. I actually want to try to invest in the secondary market if we can in this company.

Um, there's a few companies like that, but I, I just think that AI is going to radically change every single sector. Um, do you remember when we were on that last show, Dave, we talked about, there's another private company. I took a meeting with the CEO founder. They're one of the, the,

they're already one of the larger robotics companies in healthcare working in drug labs but over the next decade or sooner maybe within the next five years they'll 100x the amount of lab experiments that can be done in every lab in the world with physical like physical lab experiments through this uh roboticized

experiment experiment machine and I actually saw videos on it it's astonishingly cool uh but they've been working on that for a decade and they're only able to do that because of AI so Jordan like we need to do another full like deep deep dive to understand what's about to happen because almost none of the productization has happened in AI yet

Almost none of the commercialization has happened. Dave, did you see the stat with ChatGPT? They increased the number of, I think, daily users from 500 million to a billion in the last couple weeks, supposedly. No, I didn't see that. Yeah. That's crazy. Where are we finding all these new people who haven't yet used ChatGPT? I heard there's a news story that they want to create a social media platform also.

That just came out today because he's running out of data, Jordan. That's the only thing that makes sense to me is that that's what gives...

Could rock the advantage. Not the advantage, but they've got an unlimited supply of new information, right? Apple, by the way, Apple is starting a new data initiative, too, where because Apple is all about privacy and they won't read your emails and they won't read what you actually do, they're now going to use synthesized data and they're going to be in the beta version of iOS. They're going to put a bunch of synthesized data on your device.

on your device and let your device compare the stuff you actually do with the stuff that is synthesized to help them curate their synthesized data and figure out which of their fake data is more like what people actually do so that they can maybe make Apple intelligence a little more intelligent just in time for WWDC in the summer.

That sounds like it's going to slow down my iPhone. You don't have to do it because you don't use the beta versions of this. So it's now in the most recent iOS beta version, beta 2 of whatever the current build number is. That's fine. By the way, Sam Altman, you can't launch a social network online.

to collect data, like outright telling people that you need AI. Like what, what is he even thinking? Like, and by the way, again, he's not a likable person that people trust to,

Like, it's just not, it's, I trusted enough to upload tax forms to it though, because I know that all that, uh, what was it? Equifax gave out my social security number to the dark web a long time ago. So basically I just assume everyone already has everything about me. Yeah. I change gears. I just have permanent Chris. I know how much you love technical analysis and how much you think that that is a true science that you can, you know, make, make big bets on.

But the headline is we've had the first death cross since March of 2022. You know what a death cross is? That's when that 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average. And it has predicted three of the last 11 deaths

It was right three out of the last 11 times that happened that it was the top of the market. And meanwhile, the other times it was the bottom of the market. So what do you think about the death cross?

You just said three of the last 11 times. I recall hearing about this death cross a few times the last few years and nothing happening. That's all I know about it. I could care less. Well, either the market goes down like it did in 2008, 2018, and 2022, or it goes up like it did in 2010, 2011, 2015, and 2020. Oh, so you're saying…

You're saying that during volatile times, ultimately the market will go up or down. Yeah, I think that's a safe bet. Okay. It's either marking the bottom or it is marking the beginning of further declines. That's what we have determined. Well, we'll look forward to finding out. Yeah. What's that, Jordan? We'll look forward to finding out then. We'll know soon. It's going to go one way or the other. Yeah.

By the way, I don't want to completely ignore people in the comments. A bunch of people asked if I'm using leverage with hood. I do have some leverage with hood. But again, I have absolutely no conviction on the short term. The next earnings or two, completely clueless. All the stuff they're doing, expanding internationally, getting into other products, all this stuff, that's a multi-year initiative that I think will play out. So

And Chris, when you talk about using leverage, you're basically always 100% invested. So if you're going into something new without selling something else, you're using leverage. And I also buy, I'll usually stack up some options on top of my equity position just to juice it additionally. But again, that's not something I recommend other people necessarily do. It's just

It's a small amount of leverage for me relative to what I've done in the past. Have you seen some of the new betting stuff on – I see Leon's asking about betting on the rate cut contracts on Robinhood. Have you played with any of those? So I have not.

But I will say that the main prediction market prior to Robinhood, Kalshi, I guess, is that what it's called? Yeah. I thought it was a bad tasting breakfast cereal. Well, they had a stat that they took in, I don't know, half a billion dollars of trades on March Madness.

So it's just a really good sign that that format, because it's the same format that Robinhood uses, is a format that people enjoy, that works for the masses. It's what my gut instinct says as well. Like I enjoy that format. I also will gamble on a conventional betting app for sports.

But I think this prediction market format is really approachable. I love it. I think it over time,

It's going to be massive. And seeing the trend in what people are thinking, like right now you can bet on the Fed decision in May, Fed funds rate in May, the inflation in April, the CPI in April, the jobs number in April. And you can watch the trends of what people think. Right now it's a high likelihood of no change in May for the Fed decision according to the people on Robinhood who are buying that contract for $0.80. I love it.

I think, and Robinhood's so new in it, I think a couple years from now, it'll be Robinhood that's being quoted with prediction markets. And I think they get the bulk of the volume. Just because it's so easy and they have such good reach among people who...

invest well I think the reason why I think they're not global yet right and they're about to become way more global so you know the other prediction Market which is crypto base is kind of more of a global market so they have access to people in every country that want to play um but

i listen i think it's a big avenue of growth for robin hood uh robin hood nvidia amazon uh these aren't like super sexy picks but i'm feeling better and better about some of these large caps going forward benefiting massively uh from both the market and from the ai trade

So I do think there are other massive AI trades that are going to surface over the next 12 months. I think this is a critical time. Companies are going to get destroyed by AI and companies are going to flourish because of AI. If I were an investor and I am, I would spend the majority of my time focused on figuring out which of those companies are going to sit in which bucket. Because I think the next 12 to 18 months will

There's a lot of money to be made figuring out who's benefiting and who's being harmed as the productization of AI starts to kick into high gear. We haven't seen it yet. That's what's so freaking crazy. Other than like a subscription to Grok or ChatGPT, I still can't figure out how to get onto Google and use most of their AI products. They're so bad at productizing them.

Meanwhile, they have the best data. Just like ChatGPT, you can get the Gemini app. I don't use it much, but it's not hard. And if you just happen to Google things, your first result is always going to be their ChatGPT insight about whatever you search for. I know, but...

But then I hit like some the AI tab and it's like, well, you've got to do a bunch of stuff and change settings for AI. And I don't think I want to give that AI access to all of my email history and everything. I'm not yet comfortable with that. So like, can I not just use your AI Google without giving you access to everything I've ever done on Google? I haven't I haven't I stopped using Gmail so long ago. I don't really know what they're even doing there.

By the way, on that note, the web traffic for Google dropped massively in February. Massively. It was insane. I've never seen anything like it. It recovered in March. If it didn't recover in March, I would be buying so many puts on Google going into earnings right now.

I do think there's a little bit of tail risk and I can't quite figure it out on Google, whether it's this quarter or next quarter, coming out and saying that they've lost a reasonably large piece of their wealth.

their traffic to Google search. Yeah, but I mean, their valuation kind of reflects that already. You know, they're not getting prime multiples. Yeah, for sure. I mean, they're what are they like a 15, 16 forward or something like that? Yeah, but Jordan, like it, it, it, six,

They're 19. Well, I don't know if they're forward PEs. That's their current PE, but they're forwards like 16 or something like that. Well, how does that work for forward if they end up moving backwards on search? Look, I mean, it's still where advertisers go and spend their money. There's no way to advertise on...

chat GPT right so you know you've still got a the advertisers still have to come to Google and pay they might advertise and I would love to hear I we talked about this yesterday Jordan we probably need to go into Google and see like the top 10 or 20 keywords yeah I know I would love to get inside into some more insight into AdWords and

I could see Google having 20 to 30% downside risk if they have to come out in an earnings call and say that their web traffic has fallen by something like mid-single digits would be catastrophic for them. Yeah, I mean, look, it's possible. Yeah, I mean, I don't know if you'll see a move that big. Again, if you look at the move that happened in February... But the thing is, I mean, look, and this is the question, right? Yeah.

People still need Google to find certain things. You're just not doing general information on Google anymore. Now just general information, question and answer happens on ChatGPT. But if you're looking for a specific product, if you're trying to find a place to eat, if you're doing all these types of things, then I think

Some people have switched to 100% of the chat GPT, but I don't think that that's everybody. I think that certain queries still go to Google. I do not use them to find places to eat anymore, ever. I either use TikTok or I use chat GPT or some combination of the two. That's insane. No, I use Google Maps. That's the one last thing that I use Google Maps for. Locale is obviously really important too. Okay, but Dave...

I use, I use Apple maps for everything map related, except for finding restaurants near me. And that's the one thing I use. Apple maps. That's not true. It's really come around. All right. But if you pull, let me see, because I thought Google maps took a pretty big drop. Maybe it's not that big. I don't know. I,

I think it's a combination of people using TikTok and now the opposite spectrum, ChatGPT. You don't need to use Google anymore for restaurants. You could literally just put in exactly what you want. You want to say, hey, I want chicken parm. Share with me four restaurants that

That have great chicken parm in my neighborhood. And then how many videos do you have to watch on TikTok before you get the one that you're going to go to? Well, I was just referencing ChatGPT, but I do the same exact thing on TikTok and it's unbelievable. And I could flip through like 30 videos in about a minute.

minute and a half and find out exactly where I want to eat because I'm able to see the vibe of the restaurant in addition to the pictures of the food and the video of the food and the expressions of the people that are there. It's just, it's, it's, it's a deeper form of research than you can get from a, like how many reviews you have to read, Dave? They're summarized. They have a star rating system that just easily tells me out of a thousand reviews, it's just a 4.5.

And if you're able to do that, and that thousand reviews tells me something because I can see on the map, oh, all of these have 500 reviews. This place is popular and maintained a good star rating. I read, and I don't know if this is true. Instead of doing this and watching influencers dance.

I don't I can't believe I don't know if this is true because as a restaurant owner, I should know this. But I heard that the last couple of years you could erase any review that you wanted to off of Google as an owner. Is that true? And if so, I heard that that's why. No way. No, because I mean, I can't believe that's true. Every restaurant would have five stars.

There are a lot of three-star restaurants out there. I know you can't do that on Yelp. I just don't really keep track of Google reviews. I'm sure they have a process to get rid of illegitimate reviews. I'm going to look up your restaurant, Chris, and tell you. You have a 4.4 out of 1,178

reviews i can tell you that is a good review that is a good number if you had a 3.4 out of that many here's what you don't see here's what you don't see is that it would probably be a 4.7 if not for people complaining about having to valet their car and stuff like that or having to wait too long i would i would prefer you had actual parking instead of me having to valet

okay restaurants now we've opened in 1974 we didn't have parking then we don't have parking now we like dude this is what drives me nuts it's a part of the experience though it's a part i know it's not it's out of your control you're an old restaurant that's been around for since the 70s but that is that is a negative you have to admit

But if you don't care about the valet, now you have a negative impression because some people that do care just about valet for some odd reason, even though it's free and I pay like $10,000 a month to valet your car for free. It's free. You still got to tip the guy. It's not free. It's $5. You have to tip. Yeah. $10, dude. $5. This is 1985.

Look, the owner replied to my positive review where I did give you five stars. And look, how did the owner? The owner actually reached out to me. I feel so special. Lynn replied to you? Well, it just says owner. That's hilarious. Oh, he loves following us on dumbmoney.tv. It's Lynn. Yeah.

Listen, all I'm saying is if ChatGPT has a billion people using it, at some point, we have to be getting pretty darn close. And Jordan, I don't care if you still have to go to Google to do some things. If you're going there only to do half the stuff that you used to, which you admitted to me yesterday. Who? That's a problem. That's a problem for Google. A big problem. It's a problem. You know when it becomes a real problem is when...

uh on chat gbt they allow advertising and they allow people to they start pulling in reviews and all these things then i think at that point well you know chat gbt now knows so much about you imagine how targeted that advertising could be that is so valuable because they know about every conversation you've ever had with it and they know your interests and they

Have you asked ChatGPT now that they have rolled out that new data feature? Give me a profile of myself. It is scary. I asked it. You want me to tell you what it said about me? Yes. Wait, wait. I forget. I'll re-ask it. How do you ask a question? Just say, hey, give me a profile about what you know about me based on previous conversations.

there was a better way to say that's like a really bland way to ask it but just ask it in a bland way it'll say why are you being so bland this is not your normal spicy uh question style tell me what you learned about me uh so i think that i i asked it a better just ask it you're afraid it's going to say something negative just ask it

You don't have to read it out loud. No, it's a super boring answer. There's a better way to ask it. Just say, don't be boring. I basically am a prompt engineer. So I'm looking at the stuff that I'm doing on chat GPT, and I'm literally using it in a similar way to how I used to use Google.

I'm telling you guys, like, it's a real, real problem for Google. I just don't know when it hits. But I'm probably going to take a speculative short position, only 10% of what I might normally do every Google earnings until it hits. Anyway, moving on. What else? Anyone have any questions? I wonder what your restaurant is.

Oh, well, it's Chelsea Corner. Jay's talking about Chelsea Corner. And then we also have Milo Butterfingers, which we just redid in Dallas. They're both awesome, guys. By the way, the cheese sticks, the fried mozzarella at Milo's, they are maybe the best in the entire world. They're so good. What makes them good? Did you say that again? Did you say mozzarella? Mozzarella. Mozzarella.

Ask him to say any Italian food dish. He will get a very Italian... How does the guy with the camel hat say mozzarella? I say mozzarella. Dude, like a guy that grew up in Texas, dude. Yeah, mozzarella. You don't know how to say it. You grew up in Texas, Chris. No, I didn't. New York and Texas, but yeah. How do you say linguine? I don't really say that word, but linguine?

That's acceptable. I don't really say that. There's something else that he says really awkwardly. Oh, we're goth? We're goth? Straight to jail. That's not okay. The way you pronounce ricotta is not okay. All right. I think we basically have ended the show. Just enough time for one more ad on the podcast.

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Wait, wait. So I just want to make sure I covered. Are there any questions? Because we never get to comments, questions. Is there anything that anyone had for us that we kind of haven't hit on the last few shows? Palantir? Question mark? I mean, I have a position. I told you guys, I sold...

two thirds of my Palantir relatively close to the top. And I just, listen, man, I like everything that I had been talking about, the world woke up to. So like my social arb thesis had played out. I still own a piece. I'll hold it. But if it gets back up there again, I might have to sell more. People got overhyped on Palantir, which I love, but that's the entire goal of social arb investing. You invest before the world

gets like that and then when people realize how great of a company it is the stock reflects it and you sell so speed round how about corsair so okay so i did pull data uh yesterday on corsair corsair isn't like the worst possible position for china tariffs because they're not getting an exception like they're not a brand that like if you're if you're gonna buy

headphones or a keyboard you're not going oh yeah i must have the corsair brand yeah i would say that if i still have some by the way but if the tariff situation fully resolves i will definitely uh get back into corsair uh but not until it fully resolves because they are just screwed if this lingers much longer with china i think man that is a chart by the way

50% haircut. Yeah, it's nuts. Are you fully back into NVIDIA? Oh, yeah. Yeah, I'm in NVIDIA. Okay, now you understand how speed round works. Okay, HIMS. No, I've been out of HIMS for a while. No, I'm not in HIMS. By the way... I'm basically looking for question marks at this point. Does he just say Solana?

I don't look at any of my crypto holdings. Yes, I have some of all that crap and it's just, I don't want to think about it or look at it. I'm keeping, I do have a position in Elf still. Yes, I do. Elf has come down so much. I don't think Elf is going anywhere. 50, 60 bucks a share. I'm not selling my Elf. It's not a huge position. Bitcoin, I have a good recession cosmetic brand too, aren't they? Bitcoin.

the elf is a good recession cosmetic brand isn't it yeah i was thinking about that they are they actually are a great recession you're right they're a great recession brand uh they're maybe the cheapest brand in all cosmetics uh bitcoin i have i'll own bitcoin for 25 years because that's my thesis it's the wealth transfer thesis it's the only thing i care about when it comes to bitcoin so i don't think about bitcoin but yeah i have it

um somebody just asked me personally about vfc i do not own any vf corp that brand is a disaster or that company is a disaster uh guys i'm not back into celsius and no i stopped buying all the celsius i was spending like i don't know 25 000 a year to buy data just on celsius to get weekly data sent to me on celsius i mean it was insane i canceled that i'm not i'm not in celsius

I am in Tesla, but not even remotely close to where I want to be. This is important to talk about. I think we might have mentioned it previously. The entire market is focused on Tesla Automotive. I have no interest in Tesla Automotive. It's really clear to me that they're not going to value Optimus right now. And part of the reason for that is Jensen kind of talking to institutional Wall Street about...

the scaling laws in robotics and humanoids not hitting for like three to five years. So, which is the right thing for him to say. I think it's truthful and I agree with him. And because of that,

you know humanoids are going to be really small scale for the next few years so wall street's like we're gonna we're gonna focus on early stage companies that are in that world we don't have to pour into tesla right now so i don't know when humanoids gets interesting for tesla i think it's probably still tail end of this year early 16 uh later than i initially anticipated

it's still automotive for them and fsd now fsd could turn tesla around what was it june dave is when they start in austin that's what they're saying yeah we'll see robo taxi that is yeah so we'll see about that but elon's recent quote about you know fsd and robo taxi could turn us into a x valuation company where robots are going to turn us into a y value company is is you know his crazy

Crazy big numbers. Have you noticed that he has no impact on the stock anymore when he says things? Zero. Actually zero. Have you noticed that? He said that and it did nothing. Well, because I said that numerous times before. Well, no, he can't. No, that's not true. He keeps raising. He said similar things before, but that's the most aggressive thing.

way that he has talked about FSD and RoboTaxi and Optimus ever. He keeps raising the bar and people are just like, they stop listening to him. So I don't think we see anything

super exciting probably until the back half of this year on Optimus. So I'm on ice for a little bit when it comes to Tesla. I'm going to wait. If I miss out on 100 points, I miss out on 100 points. I might get into Tesla going into the Austin Robotaxi launch, which means I'd have to get in like a month earlier, right? So like May. So that's next month. It's mine. If you're going to try to front run Robotaxi,

Don't you think it's May is when you'd want to get in? You give it 30 days. I don't need to be in Tesla the next 30 days. I sell in May and go away. Your glasses are being called serial killer glasses now. Great. Is that just because I'm wearing them? I don't know. They've got a vibe. Will this be the clip that they show on Dateline? I will say the Dahmer miniseries is...

Okay, it's... He was kind of wearing glasses like this, maybe. Kind of. So I get it. By the way, have you guys seen the first two... I saw the first two episodes of Black Mirror. Damn. Oh, no, but it's on my watch list right now. And I've heard that it is amazing. It's like back to the old days of Black Mirror, predicting...

crazy future stuff so i'll say this keep your expectations in check because i don't believe they did as good of a job as the first few seasons but they are trying to get back there which is nice i love black i the old black amazing even the recent seasons have been good but i've heard that this season kind of is getting back to the roots and i'm i'm at least in the first like

a couple of, uh, I don't even know how many have been out. I'm kind of saving them. They have a bunch out. I watched one, two nights ago and one last night. And I'll tell you this, they weren't awesome when I watched them, but like the next morning, you're still thinking about them and they get better. Right. I love it. Uh,

What are other questions here? BYD, I'm not in. Guys, I don't invest in car companies. I know BYD is doing their own version of autonomy and they are getting into robots. So I'll keep a close eye on that. But for now, no. No, I'm not in Crocs.

I think that Crocs is negatively impacted potentially by tariffs. But also, I think Crocs is on a downtrend in terms of cultural popularity. So I don't want to be in Crocs right now. I think I'm not sure the company can turn around the hey dude line.

So I don't want to be in it. I will say, Oh, Pokemon, you know, we had a collect a con Chicago this last weekend. It was awesome. Packed, packed house. Pokemon strong. Yeah. I went, I think this on any of your socials. Well, I don't know. I, I don't, I go, there's 18 of them a year. Now I'd be, I'd be posting that all the time.

but collecticons doing well pokemon is doing like actually like really well right now uh

All right. I think we hit everything. I think we've done our rapid fire. And that's what we call the lightning round. I need the soundboard that he has. That would make it even better. But we talked about a bunch of stuff. Can we agree that it's time just to chill out, do less, maybe make some money, try to go figure out how to make money not in the market because long term, the market's down 18, what, tech?

the tech 100 the qqqs are down 18 i think yeah this is this is a what we might call a dip

But it's more than 18% because the high beta stocks are down like 35%, right? So this is such a rare opportunity to get into long-term trades before the biggest super cycle we've ever been through of AI and embodied AI. I have to go in deeper to assess who the winners and losers are beyond just NVIDIA.

being a big winner. I have to go and, and hood and Amazon. That's just quite clear to me that those are three big winners, but there are more and we have to figure them out before we do our next, next episode. Jordan, wait, did you not want to talk about your, your, your big trade that we're going to do the last episode? Are you holding that? We can do an episode about it. Okay. We'll do it. We'll do a standalone on it. I think it's worth exploring.

For multiple reasons. And I think it joins in on the AI trade too, in certain ways. We don't have to talk about it today. AMD, I'm not in. But Intel, which has been beaten up

so badly has made every mistake a company can make now they're dividing the company into a chip fabrication company that can make chips for other chip designers and also still designing their own chips they have a new ceo they have a new management team they've come out and basically said we suck

We're not going to do anything that we used to do. This is a brand new start for Intel. I haven't had an in-deep conversation with him, but a guy in my network who he's like one of the top semi and robotics analyst on Wall Street. He loves Intel right now. He loves NVIDIA. He loves NVIDIA. What about Intel does he love? Because they don't have...

you know, the tight fabrication processes that like a TSM has, right? So they can't produce things as efficient or as small or as powerful. I think...

I think Jordan, what he loves, he has this thesis that the demand for inference chips is going to be insatiable over the next few years. And that anyone that is in that world is going to knock it out of the park because the demand is going to far increase.

exceed our ability to fabricate chips. And he thinks that NVIDIA will be the, obviously the most efficient top chip maker in that space. But there will be numerous ways to kind of address that inference demand through other types of chipsets. And NVIDIA will have a, excuse me, Intel will have a piece of

of that market. Even if it's small for Intel, it can be a very big deal. So he just thinks they're one of a few companies that are kind of in that zone. I don't know. I haven't done any research. Intel doesn't seem to be able to do anything right. Right. But it is a new management team. If you had bought Intel anytime in the past two years, you would definitely have lost money.

i would rather roll the dice with uh nvidia here after the most recent drop yeah that's how i feel all right that's it guys thanks so much for watching we will see you on the very next dumb money live