Tesla FSD v13 Breakthrough: Final shot to buy $TSLA?
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It is being called Tesla's most substantial leap in full self-driving yet. If you've spent any time on X over the weekend and you're at all into Tesla Twitter, you've probably seen a whole bunch of version 13 driving videos. Technically speaking, FSD supervised V13.2. It now has native AI4 inputs. It has 4X data scaling. It has 5X training compute, a 2X reduction in photon to control latency, and a 2X reduction in

but in the real world, all that means is you can now start FSD with a tap from park. You don't even have to touch the steering wheel or pedals. It can now reverse and park and unpark your Tesla for you. I saw videos of people trying to get it stuck between cars or on a dead end road. And it's a, it found it with,

its way out of that every single time. Lots of people get nervous and try to take over from FSD when they're about to exit the highway. It now does that smoothly without any intervention needed. It now seems to even anticipate when a red light is about to turn green and release the brake a little early the way a human would. So is this the chat GPT moment for FSD today on dumb money? It's not the Tesla bot moment that Chris was waiting for, but could

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which by the way, if you're Cyber Monday shopping right now, this fine merch just dropped. It is here just in time for the holidays. Make markets green again. On the back, we have our Dumb Money logo. Makes a great gift. DumbMoney.tv slash merch. Chris Jordan, as you know, Tesla is my biggest position by far. It has been for a while right now. It's more than 30% of my portfolio. And Chris, I know you've been in and out of Tesla options over the last few weeks.

But you've been waiting for that breakthrough in the humanoid robot before going all in on Tesla. So my big question for you this morning, is this new breakthrough in self-driving a big enough breakthrough for you to finally go all in? Well, that's all I've been thinking about the last 72 hours, Dave. I hate this. That's why we had to have an emergency show. We never do Monday shows. Usually it's Tuesday, Tuesday, Thursday at the best.

We're starting the week with you guys. Right after a long holiday weekend. By the way, there are like three shows that I wanted to do before this show, but I can't now. We were not expecting version 13.2 to be downloaded to the general population of Tesla drivers over the weekend. Yeah, I'm going to... No.

So, Dave, I want to get your guys' opinion. This is the last thing I wanted. You know, I was prepared to put on this massive levered Tesla options trade that would be extraordinarily risky. And I did not want to do it unless I was convinced that the market was starting to fully grasp the optimist potential of

And I don't think the market is yet, but now we have this other thing, this V13. And quite honestly, the videos are stunning. I watched every one of them. I think I watched every V13. If you're watching this show, but don't have time to spend four hours watching every single person that has driven V13 give their opinion, you don't have to anymore because I did all that work for you. Okay. And I'm going to tell you right now,

It is stunningly impressive with a few glitches that are mostly related to parking, which appears to be easily fixable in the next iteration. And they've already kind of hinted at that, right? Well, yeah. And they've already said in the next version, they specifically are going to improve the parking. So they've already announced that.

Let me, can I read a tweet to you that I think that, that kind of encapsulates the importance of this V13 moment? Yeah. Every auto boardroom, every C-suite exec at every auto company has a fiduciary responsibility to decide quickly if they should be spending a single dollar more on their own R&D effort or just partner with Tesla AI. Yeah. Maybe, maybe. I actually...

Last night, so I have a bunch of money in my Schwab Global account, and it's hard to move it around, so I don't want to pull it out of there, but it was just sitting in the Hong Kong currency, whatever that is, and I just don't like money.

having my money not be invested. You know me, I can't stand to have money not invested in the market. So I was like, I have to figure out what, because the last trade I was in, in my global account, I exited a couple months ago, right? I was like, tonight I'm figuring out what to do with that money. So I started looking at all of the companies that trade on the Hong Kong exchange. And when I could not

I couldn't find one I loved enough to throw the money into. Then I started looking at, I'm going to just transfer this money into yen and I'm going to get something on the Japanese market. Right. And so I did find this really interesting robotics company there that is basically has their version of FSD for like 30 automotive manufacturers, including the beat, you know, the one in China, all the ones in China. Right. And they are pretty good.

And that's an interesting trade, but I could not trade it because the primary exchange is China. And Schwab, even if they trade on like the Japanese exchange or the Hong Kong exchange, if the primary exchange is,

Is China and the secondary is Hong Kong. Schwab disallows that. And it really pissed me off because I feel this company, I should have the name to tell you about him right now. No one can trade him really. So I don't know what's if it's not tradable. Why?

But here's the thing. Here's the thing. I did, by the way, I did end up investing that money in three different, this is maybe another episode, but I invested that money into three different Japanese wire manufacturers that are going crazy right now because they're benefiting society.

from the infrastructure of data centers around the globe because they make this really, really thin wire that you need for all these high density data centers. All right. One of them is quadrupled in the last few months. So that's where I sunk my money. Another show. I'll go over that. But where are you putting your foreign money?

So here's the thing about FSD. You know I don't care about Tesla Automotive. You know that I do care a little bit, a little bit about FSD. But what I mostly care about, beyond Optimus, is what the rest of the world thinks about FSD. Now, even though I don't think it's like necessarily like

uh a multi-trillion dollar increase in in tesla value over any short window of time which i do feel that way about optimus

Other people do feel that it is potentially worthy of doubling or tripling Tesla's stock over a short period of time if and when FSD proves to be the thing that everyone has been hoping for the past 12 or 13 years. So what I've been looking for is, is this the moment when it's pretty much undebatable that that thing is now up?

about to happen because it doesn't matter what I think, guys. The Tesla fanboys have been waiting for this moment for a very long time. They've got money. Here's something, though, that ties the two together. I know you are so just the automotive business, take it or leave it. This was a demonstration of the computing power that Tesla has to turn visual input into

mechanical control out. And that is what a Tesla bot does. This is just a version of a robot

that is on four wheels. Okay, so that is somewhat debatable as it translates to bots, but potentially true, potentially true. I've talked to robot AI engineers, and there's a lot of debate around similar to the Waymo versus Tesla debate, right? In terms of which is the better model to ultimately get us to a full FSD.

I still don't think that debate is over, but this footage is undeniable in terms of the enhancements that were made. Jordan, did you watch any of the footage? Because I want to ask you guys, do we have to read? I have watched the footage, and I've written in it, not this latest release, but the release just prior to this release,

and I was not good no no the release before the release before this release a lot of even Tesla fanboys have said that in that while it did get better in some ways it actually took a step back in other ways okay there was a lot of controversy around this last release but

This release is undebatably, undebatably, astonishingly impressive for Tesla FSD. This is a moment. This is we are having a moment right now. I want to read you one more slightly more cynical tweet that I read yesterday. Version 13 rollout predictions. Influers say it's the best thing ever.

It goes wide. It's good, but still has numerous issues. And then Tesla influencers insist the next version is going to be even better and repeat because that is the process. And I even saw in our comments a second ago, you know, version, version six, three was supposed to be a breakthrough. Then version five, then version six. But the reality is I feel like this, this version has something different. This version is better.

noticeably better and confident is the, the word that kept being used in these videos. It feels like a human driver. It feels better than your typical human Uber driver. I get nervous when I get behind the wheel with, or behind the, in the back seat of a random person that I've summoned on an app and

I think that this might be the version that, and by the way, this is the version that was running in cyber cab at that launch event. So I think this is the version that makes, that makes FSD a reality still supervised. They have to say that, but you really don't have to intervene. You don't have to touch anything and you can just push the button. It will unpark itself. It will drive you to your destination. It will find a parking spot. It might fly.

slightly be askew when you park or take up two spots, but it's not going to hit another car. At least it hasn't yet in any of the videos we've seen. So Dave, I, in addition to watching every video that was published this weekend and reading every tweet, I had a conversation with a friend who went, who came home from a trip early just to trial this in his Tesla. And he is fairly critical of FSD and,

He told me this was a 10x improvement as opposed to any other improvement that he's seen in FSD in a version upgrade. And he was stunned by it. So this is like first person that I spoke to. He's not like an influencer. He's not one of those guys. He did it himself. He was blown away.

Still, is it perfect? No. But the question is, and I think this is the big question, and it's the same question that we have when it comes to robotics and optimists, is it enough to where now we have full visibility now?

and can see the light at the, not only the end of the tunnel, but like we're about to exit the tunnel and there's nothing that's going to stop us from getting there. I think it might be, I actually think this might be that release where even someone like me,

who, listen, I'm not skeptical. I've never been skeptical that FSD will happen. I've been skeptical on the timeline and I've been damn right about that for the past 10 years, okay? So what I've been saying is just chill out on the timeline. I do think, I was not expecting to necessarily see this level of improvement this month. I thought we would probably get it in the next year, but the fact that we're getting it this month

is meaningful. And I think the Tesla crowd, as more people start to get access to this release, it will go viral. And this is going to have a meaningful impact, I think, on the revenue pull forward from FSD that I did not want to see. I wanted to wait until the optimist level. You wanted to slow down Tesla so that you'd have a chance to do a pure play robot play. But here's the thing.

We're going to see more people sampling this $8,000 upgrade to their Tesla. All of the people who buy new Teslas between now and the end of the year, who take delivery by the end of the year, get a three-month free trial of FSD.

This is a version that people are saying that the earlier versions, you kind of felt like you would want to take over more often. You have like a five to ten time less takeover rate on this. And it's just the kind of thing. Oh, and it also drives more like a human. So you don't want to.

It's going a little over the speed limit when it knows it's safe. It's doing all the things that you would do yourself. Do you know what I thought was cool? How the... I saw a video where they said it seems to anticipate almost like it's watching the...

The perpendicular lights at a four-way, as they start to turn yellow, it takes its foot off the gas, anticipating a green light. No one knew how that actually was working. But kind of like the way we do as humans, it was anticipating it. And so it wasn't so sudden-

of a, Hey, I'm going to wait for the green and then go. It's already basically the same inputs as we we're watching the road. We're seeing out of peripheral vision, what's going on with the other lights. We're seeing people crossing streets. We're seeing cars turning. It's just making decisions the same way a human would make decisions. Did you guys see the time square video this morning of a PR a guy making a right turn in the middle of time square, basically the most complicated.

traffic scenario that FSD could ever be put into. And it took a little bit of time. I think he ended up like touching the wheel, but not fully taking control. It did make it through. And we're talking hundreds and hundreds of people and bicycles and cars, every direction. It was pretty scary to watch quite honestly. I want to, I want to say something that's really important here.

This is not about saying, hey, this means that FSD can happen in six months. It's about what other people are going to think. It's about what other Tesla investors are going to think. And by the way, I want to remind everyone that every institutional Tesla investor is

is also a regular person who is going to read and watch the same type of videos that we watched this weekend, is going to experience it for themselves and do their analysis. So we're all human, right? Like

I think this might end up being a meaningful driver of this Tesla hype cycle that quite honestly is starting to look like the perfect storm with the deregulatory conversations that are happening around FSD with Elon's relationship with the Trump administration. For this release to happen right now,

is super interesting to me. I didn't want it. Guys, I didn't want it. I didn't want to put my Tesla trade on for another few months. So I'll tell you what I did, because I know everyone's been asking me. I'm like, do not mirror my trades. Guys, first of all, a million times over, we tell you, we're not financial advisors. Our risk tolerance is insane. At least mine is. You do not want to mirror my trades. You'd be insane to do that unless you had an account that

that was structured the way my risk account is structured. So that said, I will tell you that I kind of started to put on an uncomfortably large lever trade on Tesla today. It's still not where I ultimately want it to be for Optimus. I had already levered up in Tesla last week with options.

I'm now further levered up in Tesla uncomfortably to the extent to where if you were to look at the number of Tesla shares that I control through my equity position in Tesla and my options in Tesla, it is by far the biggest position in my portfolio right now. If you were to look at the

the the share control through those call options that i have by far and i have other options and other stocks as well right now i mean i'm i'm pretty levered long right now guys it's starting to get a little scary for me how much more levered long on tesla could you possibly get when you see the optimist moment how how crazy are you going to be on this the optimist moment for me

is a, I had this conversation with a guy yesterday who's a massively large Tesla investor and even a bigger robot investor, meaning that we are all invested in the same private robot companies together. And he is one of the largest investors in one of these, all of the robot companies, honestly, but one of them in particular. I'm a big investor in another one. We're both invested in all of them. You guys are invested in all of them with me.

So we agreed that because he's looking to put on a massive, massively levered position in Tesla based on Optimus as well.

that this might be, and he's about our age, guys, that this might be the last really, really big opportunity of our investing lifetime to go all in on something, to get just astonishing gains if nothing crazy happens and our thesis plays out. And I'm not going to say it's the last time, but it feels like it might be the last time to get this type of an event, like an internet

revolution event. So

I'm going to be uncomfortably levered in Optimus, you know, in Tesla. It's just, I've been preparing for it for 18 months. I'm already uncomfortable as of my trade this morning. And I'm really concerned because there are so many things that could bring Tesla down right now. That's what I want to talk about. What kind of downside risk do you have between now and your Optimus play? Huge downside risk. What are those things that you're worried most about? I mean...

anything related to Elon's relationship with the administration, anything that related to just Elon generally, because he is an unpredictable CEO and person, anything related to, you know, China and Tesla, you know, we can get into some trade war that could,

could end up being a big net negative somehow for Tesla's global business. I don't know. There are a lot of things that could happen. It won't take much to temporarily knock Tesla down. So this is why I did not want to be in this position, because I was confident that once the optimist trade starts, that there is nothing anybody could do, whether it be political, geopolitical, Elon,

Once Optimus starts, I think that trade is so big. I think that train is so unstoppable that I feel really comfortable being ultra levered in Tesla at that moment in time. I'm not that comfortable right now, guys, but I have to be to some extent. So I have to find that kind of compromise between where I want to be

where I am today or was yesterday. And it sucks. I hate it. It sucks. But I felt like that's why we had to do this episode because none of us have the answers. Like we're not those YouTube guys that come on here and we're like,

This stock's going to 4X. Buy it today. People keep wanting me to tell them that, that that's not who I am. I'm in it like everyone else trying to figure this stuff out. We've been talking about this, what, for over a year now? And I have been with Tesla, invested in Tesla during the whole down to sideways days. I mean-

Net, I've been up because I've been a long-term holder of Tesla, but I rode the sideways wave since November of 2021. This episode is brought to you by Bank of America. What if your business could see beyond what is and into what can be? And what if you had a partner as visionary as you are?

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Um, yeah, you're crazy, Dave. Like I, I was worried about you at points with, with the last couple of years of Tesla stock. Yeah. 21 to 23 was very rough for Tesla investors, but I, I I'd been in it for years before that. So my Tesla money, I, I, I just believe in Tesla. I believe in their products. I believe in their vision and I've, I knew everybody knows that Optimus is coming.

I'm not waiting for a video. So here's the thing. All right, fine. And I did sell some Tesla. I sold an equal fraction of all of the stocks to buy NVIDIA, and I did the same when I bought Palantir. I have been peeling a little bit off because I try to be fully invested at all times. It's not that I'm changing my view on Tesla when I buy Tesla.

When I sell something, I'm selling because I need money to buy other things. But I still have maintained a whole bunch of leveraged margin capacity in my portfolio for the big Tesla Optimus reveal that we're all hoping for. So that's where I'm going to get in.

Dave, there's a difference because you're not talking about going ultra, ultra levered, though. I've been in Tesla, an equity position now for a bit, but since the election, the morning after the election is where I started getting ultra long levered in Tesla and somewhat uncomfortably, and I've been kind of taking it off, putting it back on. I've

I put it back on a week ago. I tried to actually double down on my leverage position Friday, not realizing the market was, you know, had closed early that day. So I put it on this morning. First thing, you know, first thing woke up this morning. I was hoping Tesla wouldn't be up too much. And it wasn't. Of course, it got that bump late in the day on Friday, which is annoying.

But now I'm uncomfortable. Now I'm not going to sleep as well. And I didn't want this for myself. I really didn't. But here we are. So we're in this together. And this is without, there's very few times where you get into a situation where the reward risk profile is asymmetric. I believe that exists with Optimus. But Optimus isn't here yet.

to the degree that I want it to be. Did you see the videos of Optimus catching a ball thrown at it through human control? I thought that was impressive. I thought it was interesting. Where are they focusing their energy on Optimus? Are they really focusing it in areas where...

commercialization is extremely important or are they optimizing the algorithms, right? For certain things that maybe aren't as important but are super impressive because they know it will impress Elon and impress the world. And by the way, I am not saying that that's a bad idea. And if they have enough resources at Tesla and they might to do both,

then go for it, right? Like make sure that that thing is optimized for fleet autonomy with commercial style work. But then if they also have people on the side saying, hey, make optimists do really fun, cool things. Like I want it to thread a needle. I want it to be able to autonomously catch a ball. Wait, what did they say? I do read-

I'm putting some on the screen. I'm trying to read them and talk. It's not easy because I'm a marathon talker and I got to be a marathon reader and talker at the same time. It's hard, guys. I'm trying to. At the end of this episode, can we just spend some time dealing with comments then? Because I don't want to ignore people's comments. Guys, we'll try to get to them at the end of the episode. I promise.

You think I'm overthinking this, guys? Guys, you have no idea. If I told you how much money I have in Tesla options right now and my trade is not even a third on fully, you would be overthinking it as well. Okay? So it's a lot of freaking money, guys. It's a lot of risk. So anyway, I forgot what I was saying. I'm sick, by the way. I've been sick, doing this sick for days.

Uh, Oh, try not to sneeze here. So here we are. I mean, I don't know, but we're not there yet, but you're still ultra long levered. I have to be, you just haven't gone insane. Ultra long levered yet. I did see a comment earlier asking, uh, why options and not the three X, uh, leveraged, uh, Tesla tracking ETF because my options are getting me like eight to nine X. That's why.

So with a calculated downsize risk of 100%. Oh, that, I mean, yeah, it's a big risk. Yeah, it's a big risk. This is not money you want to lose 100% of, but it's certainly possible.

So again, the thesis here is that over the course of the next few weeks, what we saw over the past 48 hours in terms of reaction on FSD B13 will spread. And that will lead to both retail investors and institutional investors starting to give more credibility to the

the revenue pull forward being, I don't want to call it imminent, but more realistic here in the next couple years, two, three years for FSD. As that starts to materialize, you know, Tesla, you know, Tesla valuation will, will, will,

will react to that, right? And so that's really what this thesis is. This is no longer an optimist thesis. And by the way, in the event that something happens with optimists, at least I have a third of my trade on.

So, but I actually hope guys that, that Tesla does not shoot up here. I hope that my options, I would like to get a small move in Tesla just to cover the amount of premium I paid on those options. Very small. I hope it goes flat for a while. I would love nothing more than for Tesla to be flat for the next 60 days, 60 to 90 days. Um,

That would be my ideal scenario to let this optimist stuff play out a little bit. And then I can put on my full trade when I think we're a little bit closer to

to the Optimus up by the way I still think that in terms of like videos on humanoids Brett at figure AI his video of that BMW uh autonomous Fleet even though by all means it could have been optimized just to do that one thing and again that's that's the video that's the stuff that I saw in real life when I was with Brett at figure a month ago

I think that's the most impressive thing we've seen in humanoids being put out into the world so far. Actually doing something useful. Yeah. I think, I think if Elon would put out that same video, the same exact video on the Tesla production line, I think that might be the chat GPT moment for humanoids. I could be wrong. Uh,

Because it would get so much more exposure than what figure got, right? Because I think people still don't really believe that figure is real. People are really waiting for it yet, right? I don't know. I don't know if people are ready to see humanoids as completely autonomous yet. So do you think, Jordan, there's some degree of... So I think everything that's happening with Tesla right now, I mean, people might be recognizing a little bit with Optimus, but I think everything happening with Tesla right now

is regulatory, it's FSD, it's all of these things that people see as short-term bumps to Tesla's value. So I don't see it being robotic at all. So Jordan, you're in Tesla now, right? Yeah. Unlike you were before today, I'm in and out of it. So I'm small amount of equity. I buy and sell calls in and out of them.

Don't you think, I'm thinking if I was thinking about your portfolio, Jordan, because I kind of know your portfolio, wouldn't it be wise to, instead of having a small amount of equity, I feel like you know that long-term you're likely to believe in Optimus. And shouldn't you have like a large amount of just equity and then also play around with options around that to lever in and out?

Don't you think that would be a wiser decision for you? Now, I'm only a financial advisor when it comes to Dave and Jordan. Let me make that clear. I have zero issues giving financial advice to Jordan and Dave. So as your financial, as your wannabe financial advisor, Jordan, shouldn't you be, have a larger equity position in Tesla? Because you know that's coming. Why would you want to miss the boat just in case it runs in the next month?

For two months. You know you, like this is Amazon all over again. When you were the first to fully appreciate AWS and convince me that AWS was the next biggest thing ever, but then you never put your trade on and then regretted it a year later. Why are you doing that again? I've got some. I'm fine. You're so conservative. And maybe if we see some red days, I'll have some more. And that's how I buy.

It's fine. I'm just doing what I do. You know, I'm just, I don't want to have any regrets that, you know, I didn't. Didn't at least. Yeah. At least put the thought out there that you might want to bulk up on just your everyday portfolio, having some, uh, some additional Tesla in it. That's what I've done. I I'm keeping a hefty position in my regular everyday portfolio. And I plan to dump a bunch more Tesla in at the right moment.

Are you going to go deeper? Yeah, but I'm like you. I'm going to do some more transactional trade-related short-term game options. Options. Okay, gotcha. But that's what you're looking to do, Dave? Get into calls? Yeah. Yeah.

And it's that's that's the added risk. I'm going to I'm not going to probably ever sell my underlying Tesla other than when I need to buy other things or, you know, buy another vacation home. I'll probably sell a little Tesla when I buy my Cybertruck. Wait, are you buying a Cybertruck? Are you getting another vacation home? Are you getting another vacation? I'm I don't I OK. I'm one. I'm not getting another vacation home, but I really do want a Cybertruck now.

Really? Yes. I held off because I didn't want to be the only one in town who had it and have everyone like gawking at me and like wanting to take pictures and stuff. But now that I see them all over town, I kind of want one again.

I think they look ridiculous. I still can't get over the look. I follow too many people that point out some of the flaws in the Cybertruck. Me too. It's annoying. They might be biased, so maybe it's not as bad as they make it out to be. I don't know because I haven't driven one, but

First of all, I still have not driven a Cybertruck. I absolutely have to drive one. And one of my minimum requirements is I have to drive it to my house and see if I can make the very sharp turn from my alley into my garage. I don't know if the turning radius, even with the four-wheel steering, I don't know that I'll be able to make that turning radius without hitting the neighbor's fence. So I have to test drive in my own driveway. Yeah, you're in the alley situation that you've got us in.

tight alleys yeah you used to live in the same neighborhood yeah we had like a big brick fence right next to the alley and it was a disaster trying to get i have a i have a my own fence pole and a telephone pole that i would have to go around on one side and then my gate does happen to open you know wider than a two-car garage would open but still a little equipment over there and another fence it

and I have to make sure I don't hit the fence that's like six inches from the right-of-way on the backside. I do think the Cybertruck's a little smaller than a normal truck. It's slightly smaller than a Ford F-150, but I've never driven that either. I've driven my camper van, which I could never even think about driving that down the alley.

So I kind of need to see a full self-drive can park a Cybertruck in my driveway, in my garage without hitting anything. Your driveway might be a little tough. It's a little tight. Even when I pull my car through there, it's a little bit tight, but I think you could probably pull it off. I need to try it. And if I don't get a Cybertruck, I feel like I have to get the Model X just because I need to be involved in FSD testing.

Yeah. People ask about like, why not leaps? Why are you messing around with trying to time short-term options on Tesla as opposed to leaps? Let me explain that. I'm greedy.

and I want when I buy options I want leverage I want as close as I can get to 10x leverage so I would I love getting 15x leverage I would love to get 20x on some of my trades and you're just not going to do that with leaps leaps are super conservative when you're trading options right for an options trade leaps are super conservative and

I don't want 3x leverage. I want 10, 15x leverage if possible. And really the only way to get that is going short term kind of at the money-ish, right? Can get you like 10 to 15, sometimes 20x leverage. So that's why I don't do leaps. That said-

You need to be mentally prepared not just to lose 100% of the money that you have invested in those options, but you also, if you're like me and looking at this like the trade of a lifetime, you need to also be prepared to then reinvest in additional options after you lose all of your money on the options you bet on

because you had bad timing

Or didn't see this thing that would come in and ruin your trade. So it's a really risky thing to do. It's risky. And I think, you know, if you think about it just from a almost betting markets standpoint, options are priced the way they're priced with the premium you're paying, because that is what the premium costs because of what everybody else thinks. So you're using the wisdom of crowds to basically say this trade should break even because

Statistically, right? Yes. And people are mentioning in my book, I talk about six to nine months at the money options. I don't think I said that in my, that book is like 15 years old now, by the way. But in the book, what I talk about is you have to identify a trade window of when you believe the rest of the world is going to

Now see what you're seeing today, right? So that information dissemination event, is it a week away, a month away, two months away? And that becomes your trade window. So if you believe that the rest of the world is going to fully appreciate this thing that you're seeing today in about a

a month or six weeks, then you're buying options that expire in about a month or six weeks. And I think your risk tolerance for yourself has gotten way more aggressive since you wrote that book 15 years ago. And I think that you may have also been like, okay, I'm not, I'm not going to say by, you

with, you know, with other people's money in that book. So I never buy zero days. I always give myself some time. I'm in the 30 to 60 days, like my usual option purchase. But, but, but I think what I, what I would tell people is more often than not, my window generally tends to be weeks to months, not days to weeks and not months to years, but weeks to months. So that just, but that just, that just on average, it,

I need to nail this Tesla trade within a fairly short window of time. Like I want to be no more out than like 30 to 60 days on this trade to get the leverage I want to get. Leaps are not going to cut it for me. They're just not going to get me the type of returns. I want to generate insane returns on this trade. I've been waiting for it too long, planning for it too long.

And now it sucks because I got to put part of the trade on now and it might all be for nothing. And I could just lose all this money in the next month on Tesla. I'm prepared to lose an insane amount of money because Elon's going to say something stupid or something weird is going to happen with the administration or just the market is going to have a pullback. That's the problem. There's big...

There's beta market moves here that you have to be concerned about when you're invested in options like this. Do you think there's going to be any impact on Tesla vehicle sales because of the election and perhaps people who were like opposed to Elon not wanting to buy something that was controversial, but now seeing that half the country is

is with Elon and they might be more likely to buy a Tesla now. I know people that are selling their Teslas because of the election. Selling their Teslas because of the election. Yeah, but I'm sure there's also people on the opposite side that are like, you know what? We're going to buy Tesla because of Elon. So I saw a video. I agree with that. And I was reading an article today about this kind of Elon's

particular political stance as of late might open up a new version of a Tesla buyer, right? That, uh,

Wouldn't have bought it before. But that's the thing. I don't want to have to think about that because I hate their automotive division. I think it sucks. I can't stand car companies. I do not want to be invested in any car company anywhere in the world. Screw all of them. I think it's a crappy industry sector over the long term, especially today, like today looking forward. So the FSD thing is,

Kind of interesting to me, yes. I think it's more interesting to other Tesla investors, and that's why I'm having to put on some of my Tesla trade because I'm worried about all these other Tesla investors that have been thinking about FSD for 12 years and institutional Wall Street that has been kind of thinking about it for 12 years.

all coming together now and saying, you know what? We kind of need to put that trade on. We kind of need to pull forward that revenue now because V13 is showing us that we're closer than we thought we were. That's what this trade is all about. And it's a trade I don't want to make. Like, I don't want to be part of it, but I'm forced to be. You've been forced to buy Tesla before you're ready to buy Tesla. Yeah. I hate it. I hate it. Why don't you just have some like, some like just regular stock, just like I do.

This is why I like my private humanoid companies because they do one thing. There's nothing else that they're doing. I don't have to worry about, you know, the trillion dollar valuation that's based on something else. It's random. Right. Also, there's only so many opportunities to get in. So you just get in and you forget about it. Right. You just get in. You don't have to think about it. Right. And they just, they're going to do their thing. Uh,

And by the way, I wish there was a way for me to be able to invite our followers into some of these deals with me. But I mean... Oh, Kevin's doing it. He's setting up a fund. Is it just accredited investors, probably? Accredited investors. He's setting up a fund to invest in. You know, I've been...

I've been working with him for a year now, you know, trying to get him, you know, keep him educated on this space and like pricking him to like learn about it. And you don't need to do that much pricking when it comes to Kevin because he, you know, he just he'll do his own research. Right. Like you get him interested in a sector. He's a really good.

he's a really good researcher on things like this yeah and and I think he's fully bought in on the sector now uh so yeah I mean I guess he's taking like 99 investors and taking applications for his robotics humanoid private fund where he's investing in private companies as well which yeah I mean that I guess that's one way for people to invest

uh uh meet kevin guys we're talking about meet kevin giddy up tesla um okay oh by the way so i i want to tease our neck this is sucks that i want to have an episode on a different stock today but i'm not going to talk about it because i know dave you hate it when we talk about too many things on one episode but we do have i don't hate it the algorithm hates it what we need to get back to the days where we talk about our topic for 20 minutes and then we just have a free-for-all

Fine, fine. And we'll do our Friday happy hours where we just, you know, pour ourself a glass of whiskey and just chat about stocks and do all live chat with the audience. I am pretty hyped on at least one and maybe more than one. We'll call it a Black Friday. We'll call it a holiday trade. We'll call it kind of an old school, dumb money, social arb trade.

And I want to do an episode on it. Maybe we can hop on again this week, later this week. Dave, are you traveling this week or what? I have to go to Oklahoma, but I'll be back Wednesday, Thursday. I can do Thursday or Friday. How about Friday? Friday, happy hour. Jordan, can you do Friday? Yeah. All right, so let's do this because I feel like I have to talk about it this week.

And it's a fun one. And it's one that I already invested in this morning, options. So I am reasonably levered in this trade already. Is this one you've talked about in our group chat? It is the one I talked about in our group chat today. And I haven't spoken to you about it.

No, that's why I didn't know what you were talking about. Are you going to talk about it in our dumbmoney.tv slash discord forum? I already did. I already did, yeah. See, I like this one because expectations have already been kind of reset on this company. It's a good shot. Yeah, I like it. I like it too, man. It's a good shot. Since you've already mentioned it in the discord, should you just say what it is? No, no, because like... Tease! You're such a tease. No, no, because I want to...

You know what I hate, Dave? I hate when I talk about something, but then I don't have the ability to flush out the thesis, the risk factors, all the stuff. Because the last thing I want is people copying my trades. It sucks because I'm not a financial advisor and I'm not a fund manager. And I hate it when people do that. I like

I like throwing out an idea that I have. And hey, here's the research I did. Here's what I like. Here's what I'm worried about. Now you guys go off and do, but I can't do that in five or 10 minutes. And we can't have this be an hour and a half show. I know you hate that, Dave. Can we talk about, are there comments we want to get to though? But come back on Friday. Yeah, I think Friday's going to be a stock pick that you have already gotten into and comment free for all.

Yeah, and it's not just one. I'm working on a couple others that I want to flush out before Friday's show. These are all retail stocks that I think are primed for the holiday season. We'll call them winners. Winners of the holiday. I mean, you'll come up with a better title day. Holiday winners? Yeah. Winners and losers? That sounds like a CNBC show. Yeah.

No, no, no, no. Okay. So, um, any, any comments, anyone have any questions, anyone, anything you want to say? You said we don't look at calm reading comments. I don't really see anything that stands out guys. Well, Jeffrey Jones, uh, stands out because he spent almost $2 to tell us that he likes Tesla.

All right. Like that was money not well spent. I made an investing mistake this month. It's a big one. What did you do? Oh, was it an interface problem because you don't know how to use Schwab?

No, I make those mistakes all the time. This one cost me a couple hundred thousand dollars and I'm really upset with myself. And I was too distracted. You remember when all that stuff was going down with SMCI? I was like, I don't have time to think about this or to properly research how real this short report is and all the stuff that's going on. When they lost that second CPA, I

I was like, this just smells really bad. And now I had already exited, as you guys know, most of my SMCI position at like 800 bucks a share. So this is not that big of a deal. Why is SMCI up 30% today? Yeah. What? Guys, I only had like a couple hundred thousand dollars of that stock left.

But I went ahead and just exited at least my primary portfolio pretty close to its low, like 20 bucks. So that was an I didn't have time to think about it. And I just I hate when companies have these massive accounting issues. Yeah. Looking back, it was a dumb move. I still kept it in my retirement account.

So I'm still, you know, it's not that big of a deal. By the way, it's probably like 5% of the money that I made on SMCI that I just lost. So it's not a big deal, but it was a mistake. Yeah, if you had watched that, the stock just fall like a rock, and then a month ago you got in, you'd be up 65%.

Okay, people are talking about Shark Ninja. I know they always talk about Shark Ninja. It's in our Discord. There's a lot of data that people are sharing in our Discord. I have not had time to look into it, guys. I'm coming up on the busiest week of my life here with one of the robot companies I work with.

i just sold my shark ninja like two weeks ago is it so jordan you need to get in our discord and go to the research channel and at least start paying attention to what some of our community members are doing in terms of research because they're doing good work

One of them is super pumped on shark Ninja. Yeah. It looks like it's down a little bit from when I sold it. Um, well, it's a black, it was some black Friday analysis. Yeah. At least one of our community members did. I haven't even looked at it, but I know it's in there under the research channel of dumb money. Dot TV forward slash discord, which is absolutely free. No one will ever ask you to pay. And if they do, it's a scam.

I hate that we have to always say that, but I hate it. I hate it. And by the way, no, we're not people contact you through discord. No, we don't contact anyone like that. I would never direct message you. And I'm, and we have to apologize. We can't direct respond to you because of that. Yeah. Because, and because you might be contacting the wrong person. And if we respond or if, if a fake us responds, then it just looks bad. So we can't directly talk to anyone. Yeah. Yeah.

So, uh, yeah, let me see. Are there any, the only thing we'll sell you is a hat and a t-shirt and this hoodie, by the way, is available on our store too. And down below on YouTube. Um, I got my hoodies. I got my hats. The dad hat actually fits me better than the truck. The trucker hat is just oddly wide. You bought all of them, right? Yeah. I just bought the dad hat because I know this particular hat. That's why I picked it for the store. And I, this is my favorite hat.

Yeah, I bought every color. I bought my hoodies. I have an issue with sizing on one of them, but we'll discuss that later. The hoodies run a little bit small, I would say. The sleeves were short on one of my large hoodies, but they were not short on one of the others. So it's something like the thick hoodie maybe is not short, but the thin one, I don't know, something like that. I think we only have one hoodie on the store these days.

No, I thought we had more. No, we have t-shirts with the simple dumb money logo, the small one, this hoodie in like four different colors, and then the hats available in trucker style, muted trucker, red, black, and green. All right. We're going all out. We're basically a merch store now. We're a merch store that talks stocks with the dumb money logo.

I need to get back to all the robot stuff I'm doing this week, which is a lot. Someone's telling us that we missed a super chat question, which is important. Oh, we did? Sorry, guys. I saw a super chat that just had the number one in it. Chris, why wait for Tesla Optimus video to lever up? Aren't you essentially buying the news? That's actually a good question, because by the time you see the video, you have to be so quick to pull the trigger.

Yeah, well, I have a prepared mind. I'm prepared to be super quick. And I already told everyone I'm willing, like if Tesla pops 5% or 10% on something, but I believe that that marks the beginning of the true information dissemination driving event that starts the optimist run, I would be happy to place my trade after a 10% bump in Tesla. That doesn't concern me at all because...

What I believe Optimus will ultimately do to Tesla is doubling, tripling the stock over some period of time. So I'm not concerned with being a tiny bit

And I don't think it is one video. I've discussed this on Twitter, guys. I don't think it's necessarily just one video. And now all of a sudden the world is going to start factoring in optimists into Tesla's valuation. I think it's a series of events, a series of videos, of conversations of multiple humanoid companies, including Tesla, Tesla.

I just have to figure out when it starts to snowball. And towards the beginning of that snowball is when I'll put the trade on. Now, you could make an argument that we are in the beginning stages already. In fact, the volume of humanoid discussion that's happening on Twitter right now, excuse me, X,

and other online communities and in just the general news is up like 5X over the past, what would you say, two weeks, right? It has to be up 5X over the past two weeks.

So it's kind of like when a big earthquake comes sometimes before the big quake, you start to see some kind of smaller quakes happening in the region. And that could be a signal of the big quake. I feel like that's where we are right now. I feel like these, the, the, the acceleration of tweets of news of conversation of Elon making comments of videos coming out from other humanoid companies of, uh,

uh ex-influencers of people that are starting to discuss how big this humanoid sector this embodied AI sector is going to be for our civilization I feel like we're starting to see some cracks happening uh that could be a signal that the snowball event is about to begin the chat GPT moment is about to begin

So that's why I've been tweeting about it more. We've been discussing it more because we need to be ready. We need to be mentally prepared. Whatever your trade is, it could be 10 bucks, whatever your trade is. If this is something that you guys have determined you want to be part of, you need to start getting mentally prepared to put that trade on at a time that's right for you after you speak to your financial advisor.

Just one other quick, and I pulled this up while you were talking. They wanted us to look at the Ralph Lauren G trends chart, which I pulled up and it is at a all time high. We see a seasonal, a seasonal bump that happens every year, but this year is bigger than ever. What do you, what do you make of that?

Well, so I started yesterday going through all of my retail. I have web data and I could pull the checkout page data on all of these websites and I could go back a few years so I can get really nice year over year data. And I share a lot of that.

on our discord. That's, that's one of the things that I do, uh, for our discord community again, for it completely free. I just do. That's kind of what I bring to the table. Some of what I bring to the table. I have not pulled Ralph Lauren, but you know, if you want, I mean, I could do it. Is that rl.com? Is that what it is, Dave? Uh, well, the stock symbol is RL. I don't know what their website is. I went to Google trends.

No, I mean, Ralph Lauren's website is ralphlauren.com. Okay. So let me, the season of gifting and here's their stock chart for one year. So I'm going to 75% this year. All right. In real time, I will pull the checkout page data for ralphlauren.com. And this is the screen. I can't. Oh, you probably can't. I'm not, I don't even know that I'm allowed to do that.

So, but I can speak to it. I'm pulling it right now. It could take up to 30 seconds to pull. I pay a lot of money for this data, guys. So let me share it with you. We'll see how it looks. Now, the difficult part is because of the late holiday, you know, Thanksgiving came late this year. As of last night, I wasn't able to pull Black Friday numbers yet. I believe I'll be able to pull that tomorrow.

Uh, we'll see if it pops up right now. So I'm, I'm comparing the peak last year, which included black Friday to the peak this year, which doesn't yet include black Friday. So it's a little bit hard to do an apples to apples comparison, but if we're already at last year's peak before black Friday, uh,

which we are for the company I'm going to talk about on Friday, by the way, that's a good sign. It's still pulling the traffic data. I'll also pull, I have institutional credit card swipe data, and I'll pull that for Ralph Lauren. Now, every hedge fund in the world has this data,

And this is what Wall Street looks at. So as of right this moment, it looks like they believe that in the U.S., because it's only U.S. data, the credit card swipe data for Ralph Lauren appears to be meaningfully lower than consensus. So that would be a net negative for Ralph Lauren. Now, I just pulled the WebStats data up.

And I'm not seeing anything convincing right now yet, but we're going to have to wait because, well, now it is showing me through the 28th. Was the 28th Thanksgiving or was that Black Friday? No, that's Thanksgiving. I need one more day, guys. I need one more day to be able to pull Black Friday data. On Friday's show...

I will have all of these ready and I'll just kind of read through them. We'll pick like 10. I will come prepared with at least 10 big reds.

retail stocks. And I will tell you if the checkout page data is looking better or worse than last year, Black Friday, it's actually one of my favorite data sources because it's really precise. It's people that are hitting the cart checkout page on that company's website. So it's a great measurement of e-commerce traction for a brand.

I will bring at least 10 of those to the episode on Friday, including Ralph Lauren. And I'll have not just Black Friday, but I'll have all of Black Friday weekend. And Dave, I should maybe have Cyber Monday by then too. And you should maybe even have the stock that you've already teased. No, I'll definitely have that. 100% I'll have that. So yeah, come back on Friday, guys.

Are we good? What time are we going to do it on Friday? Are we going to do it at our 11 a.m. time or are we going to do more of a market close time? I would prefer to do it a little later because I am having to... I have some stuff going on. You want to do like 2 o'clock central and an hour would lead us right up to market close? That would be reasonable.

Everybody mark your calendars. This is the first time I think ever that a dumb money episode has been scheduled this far in advance, which means it's going to change. Mark your calendars, but in pencil. Yeah. I put it on mine though. So that's, that's official for me. I blocked out my day. We'll, we'll be here. Hopefully you guys all had a great Thanksgiving and we'll see you Friday.

I was not fat. That was such a good out cue. That was such a good, we'll see Friday. And then I did, I was not ready with the theme song. I'm sorry. Now you have to do it. Yeah.