Trading Trump's First 100 Days
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Biden is out. Trump is in. Day one executive orders have been signed. The market is up. Welcome to the first Dumb Money Live of 2025. A lot of pomp and circumstance yesterday and some new traditions emerged, you know, like the pardoning of the criminals, good criminals on both sides. New traditions like the renaming of the ocean basins and the reclaiming of canals. And of course,

We also saw the launching of the presidential shit coin, which was insane. Friday night, Trump tweeted, and by the next day, his personal net worth had 5X'd. Some fun facts here. In 36 hours, Trump coin outperformed more than 50 years of the stock market. Trump's LLC kept 80% of all of the Trump coins for themselves. And at one point, Trump's coins were

were worth 24 times more than all of Trump's real estate. One insider bought a million dollars worth of Trump early on. Barron, we're watching you. That $1 million turned into more than $400 million until Melania jumped in with her own meme coin, which unraveled the entire crypto market and cut Trump coin in half.

Interestingly, Trump did not mention crypto at all yesterday. He was too busy signing a flurry of executive orders, bringing back TikTok, slashing regulations, canceling the country's subscription to the WHO and the Paris Climate Accord, and setting the stage for deregulated energy and manufacturing and AI. It was hard to miss the front row of the inauguration. Elon, Mark, Tim, and Sunbar, all...

All there to usher in a new era of tech and business friendly policies. Today on Dumb Money, we're going to dive into the whirlwind that is Donald Trump and his ripple effects across Wall Street to reveal our investment strategy for Trump's first 100 days.

This episode is brought to you by GlobalX. Since 2008, GlobalX ETFs has been committed to empowering investors with unexplored intelligence solutions. GlobalX specializes in exchange-traded funds that offer exposure to the artificial intelligence ecosystem, including themes like data centers, robotics, semiconductors, and cloud computing. To learn more about GlobalX's entire suite of ETFs, from covered calls, fixed income, emerging markets, and more, visit globalxetfs.com.

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This is Dumb Money Live. Hey there, Dave here along with Chris and Jordan. We are Dumb Money. Welcome to Dumb Money Live. The golden age of America is here, which brings with it the golden age of the like button. Help us make markets green again. It just takes a quick smash to the like button. Chris Jordan, it is so good to see you both again. Good morning. What is happening in your worlds? Dude, so much, man. It feels so good.

to be like past this event you know what i'm saying man like like it's happening we're just moving forward moving on

Dude, I, this is, man, there's so much happening. Trump, first of all, can I just tell you something? That 12-hour period without TikTok was rough for me. You know that, right? You have become basically a Gen Z girl. Yeah, it was rough. So what I thought was so prolific about that period of time just before it was,

were the last videos. The last videos were some of the, it was some of the most emotional stuff I've ever seen on the internet. I mean, people talking about what TikTok has done for them. It was the only place where they could truly be themselves. It was the only place where they didn't have to act like the cool girl. You know, people would accept them. You know, it was okay to be a little bit off. And you remember at the birth of TikTok,

That's what it was all about. Remember when everyone would say like everyone on this app, just a little bit off, but that's what made it so great, man. That's what made it so great. And I knew it was coming back. So it wasn't, I mean, it wasn't that, you know, depressing of a day on Saturday before it went away, but dude, you realize how special it is when it, when you have to go through a situation like that. And, uh,

i hope it stays back man i hope not not just for the you know not just for people and businesses but man my social arb research dude i don't know what the hell i'm gonna do without it but honestly so what do you think this is is uh is tick tock back for good is this just a temporary stay of execution

Man, I hope so. But who the hell knows, dude? Did you see Trump? So I was watching Trump as he was signing executive orders yesterday. And he was basically in the Oval Office, stack of things. They're handing him things to sign one at a time. The media was gathered all around. And it was like the most informal, like low energy press conference I've ever seen where he's just like answering questions like, oh, this is a big one. Like and doing his Sharpie sign.

But a couple of things. He went on and on. They kept asking him about TikTok and what he thought. And he, I think just out of his ass, came up with the idea of, well, somehow America needs to have TikTok pay us half of their value and it will be a joint venture between the U.S. and ByteDance.

It's just crazy, man. That's not, that was not what it was on the order that he signed, but that was the idea that he came up with. And also, so as he was, another thing that they asked him about quite a bit was tariffs, which I was kind of watching split screen of the futures market, which had just opened and his, his,

press conference and everything was up, up, up until he mentioned tariffs. And then the futures market took a giant dump. I think that's what we need to talk about in today's episode. People have a short memory and there was a lot that we actually learned during the last Trump presidency that I think really applies to us as investors. And we should not get caught up in the same traps twice. Yeah. Like we, we learned our lessons. Let's,

you know, let's talk, let's talk about this. So today's about the what? First hundred days of trading. First hundred days of Trump and our Trump trades. Yeah. First, first hundred days. Oh shoot. Sorry. First hundred days of Trump. Okay. Um, here's the thing guys. I think,

from, from, from a really high level, the most important theme here are that the easy trades are over. We talked about this this summer, right? Like we've been planning for this all year. We knew that the easiest trades would be in the beginning, uh, in the months actually leading up to the election when you can anticipate, uh,

who the winners and losers might be, or at least people were trying to anticipate that. And just the, just the thought of what the winners and losers could be. And that driving market momentum, not so much what is actually going to happen and what is, you know, what is, who's actually going to benefit, but who do we think is going to benefit? But that part is over now. It's now it comes back down to like all of these companies that, that got front run by the pre-election excitement are now like, Oh,

Like, okay, do we deserve these valuations? Are we real? Are we going to be able to deliver numbers? Well, speculation is a lot easier to trade, Dave, than reality. Speculation is so much easier to trade. And that's why I say the majority of the Trump trade is over. It's over for the most part because what's about to happen going forward is actually much tougher than

to trade because it's not about all these easy things that people think will benefit and be harmed. And you could just trade off of what other people are thinking. That was so easy. God, you know how much money I made off these Trump trades the last six months. It's been so easy. Now it gets tough. Um,

Yeah, I think that's what it all comes down to now is everything going forward is going to be a function of reaction in reaction to what Trump says or what Trump does or what he's trying to, you know, what he's trying to put together. I mean, is he going to put these tariffs out? Who knows? Is he going to negotiate based on them? I don't think we have any clear answers to that yet.

Jordan, I think as an investor, we have to choose what game we want to play going forward. Do you want to play the game that Jordan just outlined, which is trading the reactions to everything and anything that comes out of Trump or anyone affiliated with this administration's mouth on a minute-by-minute basis for the next four years?

And if that's all this way in there, I don't want to do that. That I don't want to do to me. That would drive me crazy. I love my, like my lifestyle. And what I don't want to be is glued to truth, social and X trying to like hear the thing that happens before it happens. I'm looking more for the easier, the easier path. And I,

You know, notorious insider traders like Nancy Pelosi, who dropped her trading disclosure like yesterday. And this little company that nobody had really heard of is up 40% today.

It's a joke. I can't even think about that. But it was only up 20% in pre-market. So you could have gotten another 20% if you just got in in the pre-market. That's the kind of easing your trade that I'm looking for. I think, Dave, we're going to intersect in this episode on the same trade here. I think we are too. I think we are too. Because I saw you tweeted it.

But I think it's really important, and I'm not joking, and I mean this, and this is like the one thing I wanted everyone to take away from today's episode. You have to determine what do you want to do the next few years? Do you want to play that erratic game?

game, daily game of trying to fast trade everything that's coming out of everyone's mouth. And then they will correct themselves an hour later or Trump will. It's an almost impossible game. Yeah, I mean, the biggest problem, though, is I think you're racing against algorithms, right, that have access to news feeds and to Twitter,

that can just trade on this information instantly. And you can't do that. I think if we were going to even, even come close to trading on that, we would need you Jordan McLean to sit down and write your own algorithm that just auto trades for us, both on real things like stocks and also the, the meme coins. I feel like there was, there'd be definitely a way for you to program something that can front run the meme coins on pump.fun.com.

and try to suck liquidity out of those. Okay. So let's just say you don't want to spend the next four years worrying about everything that comes out of Trump's mouth and all the people around him. And you're obsessed with that 24 hours a day. That's a crappy way to live. Okay. Yeah. Why you can also play the other game, which is the fact that everyone else in the world is trying to do that, stumbling over each other. Maybe some make it or most probably won't.

Meanwhile, there's a massive amount of noise, new noise in the world because of the Trump administration. Right. We saw this last time. What that noise is, is a distraction for others. It doesn't need to be a distraction for you.

I think it creates a pathway to alpha in the market because less people are focused on real things. And if you're willing to be focused on real things, you have less competition now. The same way that when we're going through these massive macro volatility in the market, everyone's thinking about what the hell Jay Powell is going to do day to day. Meanwhile, there are actually companies that are

manufacturing, you know, killer products that the whole world wants that you could just invest in them, right? Like, like that no one's seen because they're so worried about the interest rate, uh, dynamic. Like we're in one of those scenarios guys. And, and I think if you want to stick to actual Trump stuff, the best way to think about that

is one, what is his administration doing that's real and lasting? And when I think about that, I think it's less about what Trump is doing

And more about what Trump is not doing. OK, because the truth is Trump's going to do all these executive orders. And I know people will fast trade them and speculate them on them. But so many of these executive orders are going to go nowhere. A lot of them will get challenged in the courts. A lot of them just aren't going to amount to much of anything at the end of the day.

I think the more interesting thing is what is this administration not going to do for the next four years and how will companies benefit from that? And we all know the answer. The answer is regulation.

In fact, did you see the one executive order I want to talk about is the one about the national security on the border? Not the border, excuse me. National energy, the energy, national security related to energy that now the energy industry, as it's labeled, by the way, the energy industry are all of these things. They listed out a massive number of things, but they did not list wind,

They did not list solar as being part of the energy industry. But the energy industry, because of this executive order, can theoretically muscle their way through any type of restriction on land or environmental, right? Like, it's wild. And the craziest part is the executive order lists this as a national... What do they call it? Not national emergency. It's not an emergency. It's a...

I can't think of the word. Disaster, natural disaster? Yeah, whatever they're calling it. But it has no goals. It has no stated goals like here's the emergency and here's what we're trying to accomplish to deal with it. They're just using it as a way to do something. But I'm not trading energy stocks here. What I think is important about this is it's a reminder that

that this will be likely the most deregulated environment that we've seen in a very long time. And guys, let me just state this. Nothing matters more for so many businesses than regulatory environments and the lack of them or the over-enforcement of them. This is huge. When you see people talking, like it was a drunken miller talking about the fact that CEOs are like almost giddy

right now because they feel like the chains have been taken off of them. Yeah. Most companies, they don't want help. They just want you to let them do. Let them do their thing. Yeah. So it was a national energy emergency declaration that he signed yesterday aimed at increasing domestic energy production and lowering costs to consumers. This order was part of a broader set of actions to unleash American energy.

Yeah. Yeah. And, and,

I have no interest in trading energy. I think this is one of those things where the industry is so massive, so large, it takes so long to actually implement anything within that sector. I follow a few really smart energy guys on TikTok. They're like old school. They've been in the industry their entire lives. They're apolitical, okay? So they're not like right wing or left wing. They're pro-energy markets, right?

And it's funny because anytime anyone says anything about energy and politics, they're like, none of that's actually real. None of that's going to have any impact anytime. And that's just not how it works. They're like, these things move so slowly. Everything that you think is happening in the energy market is not actually happening for that reason. So I learned a lot there, and I just don't have any interest trying to

quick trade this stuff because remember what happened last time remember steel there was going to be this massive massive market and then nothing happened nothing happened well and lithium too i mean it's it's like i want to simplify my life and instead of trying to trade all these little things i just want to look for the easy ones the the kind of things that we were able to do pre-election i want to find for post-election yeah i i i agree and i found a couple that i that i like

I mean, obviously, I'm not going to change my position on Tesla, my favorite company, for all the reasons, robots and Elon and just autonomy, all of it. Wait, wait, wait. Not even with the new Hitler?

uh okay come on he so he is a self-proclaimed autism uh person and he just doesn't know how to express himself he was not doing a not a hitler nazi uh salute and if you if you look at anything on twitter like some national defamation league came out and said no this is don't this is not this is not bad this is

And if you, if you catch, if you catch like all these other screenshots of other, uh, political figures on the left with the same gesture, if you capture a screenshot of someone who's using their hands a lot, you might find one in an up upward slant position. Yeah. People are calling it autism slander. Uh,

Listen, I don't know. I don't care. It's like the fact that there's so much real stuff happening and people are focused on that. Yeah, I'm not. I'm not changing my course on Elon at all. I'm still all in on Tesla.

Okay, I think, yeah, I think the Tesla trade, the concerns there for me have more to do with other things like automotive in the short run, right? Like automotive in the short run than anything like that. I agree with you, Dave. But like, what makes you...

What about this administration makes you want to go deeper? Have you made any changes to your portfolio today or would you consider making the changes based on the first hundred days of what you've seen over the last week? Or are you just, it just, does this just confirm what we anticipated initially? I think it confirms what we anticipated initially. I have not made any changes, uh,

I saw that basically all of our stocks are up except for Apple today. And that's because iPhones, you know, they sold less iPhones in China than expected. So I haven't changed any of my... Tesla's down today too. Tesla's down too. That's true.

Yeah, Tesla's down because of that. Do you think it's because of his... I think Tesla's down because they took away the... or Trump announced that he was no longer going to have the incentives for EVs. To me, I think that that's the trade. It has nothing to do with what Musk did or didn't do. I don't think it is. First of all, there was a 100% certainty that was going to be announced. There's no surprises there. Two...

Tesla was actually up in the overnight trading considerably. It was up overnight. And it just, once, once the real market opened is when it dumped. Yeah. And I, and I think that's because there was a lot more traction this morning across all news channels, uh, primary news, broad-based news. Like everyone was talking about, that was like one of the biggest takeaways from yesterday in this morning's viral news was the Elon, uh,

thing and people are chatting about it. They're texting it. I had it pop up in a few different text groups this morning again. And I think some investors just got worried. I think some institutional investors thought that maybe other people might get. So it's one of those things where if you think somebody else might care about it, you want to

kind of front run that thought and and because it didn't fade away last night we all thought it might fade away and it didn't fade away i saw it i covered on the today show this morning and they're the ones that actually showed the clip of whatever that anti-defamation or whoever it was that said this was not uh this was this yeah well i think with stuff like this when it happens and this has nothing to do with investing but if if

If somebody makes that symbol or whatever, what you don't want to happen is to have it embolden other people. And I think that's the biggest worry with something like that. And so it's better to get ahead of that story and try to push it down and clarify intentions. If I weren't already all in on Tesla, I would buy the dip.

I just don't have any money left. I mean, maybe I could shift some Apple in because Apple seems to be growing less quickly than Tesla.

From an AI standpoint, anyway. There's some risk going into earnings. I don't know how to deal with it personally. I'm at odds. I was exceptionally heavy in Tesla going into the close last Friday. I exited. I had to. I mean, a lot of my options expired on Friday. I have another big chunk of options that are post earnings that I've kept. And I'm going to keep those options through earnings. But I'm not as I really hope.

I hope, I don't know. I hope it doesn't pop big on her. Cause I'd like to re I like to be heavier in Tesla by about four X where I am today. So we'll, we'll see what happens, but anything else besides Tesla, like any, any takeaways for the first hundred days of Trump that are meaningful.

I mean, I think that you're hinting at the t-shirt that you're wearing and what we kind of hinted at that we're going to be on the same page on this one. Yeah. There's one stock that I am already in and I just want more of it. And that is Robinhood.

I completely agree. I could not agree more. I bought more of it this morning, by the way. And the more I thought about it, I've been thinking about Robinhood every day for about three months now, three, four months. Hold on. So is this because you think there's going to be higher trading activity because there's going to be, I don't know, I hate to say insanity, but just

unpredictability over the next four years? And so people are going to try to trade that unpredictability? It's because of a lot of things. There's a tailwind...

on Robinhood that will last for 20 years and make Robinhood potentially the largest financial institution on earth. Let me just say that right now. Yeah, with their incentives to move accounts. No, no, no, no, not with the incentives to move accounts. This is just the mere fact that younger people are on Robinhood. Younger people are going to be the primary beneficiary to the $80 to $100 trillion of wealth transfer over the next 20 to 25 years. And

Those Robinhood accounts are going to grow massively. The UI is still somewhere between 100 and 1 billion times better than any other financial trade platform UI on earth. - Do you think that there's no stigma left over from what happened during the pandemic with- - I don't think so. - With some of the trading volatility issues? - Correct, there's no stigma. You just nailed it, okay?

On top of all of that, Robinhood is acquiring wealth management. They're acquiring crypto trading platforms. I believe they will start to get more aggressive globally.

Robin Hood is a company that has always moved first and asked for forgiveness later. And they got punished for that terribly the last few years by this last administration that threatened to really stomp down on Robin Hood on a number of issues. And now that that is behind them, I think Robin Hood is going to be moving 5x faster because they have to make up for the last few years. Robin Hood wanted to be in all these cryptocurrencies.

crypto coins. Robinhood, as you remember, as you recall, they were all about the crypto stuff. And you have Coinbase at a $78, $80 billion valuation. Robinhood's at like half of that.

I think Robinhood in 10, 15 years could be doing meaningfully more crypto than Coinbase. And I think you're right. They're going to be fast to move and fast to, you know, move quickly and make mistakes. They got...

This Trump coin listed within a couple of days of it being released, it was still a little too late for that play because the the Trump coin trade was essentially over by the time it got listed, you know, 72 hours later. But they were quick to quick to put it on. Right.

Yes. And Coinbase apparently also had it on, but I was on their app and couldn't find it. And they directed you to the Coinbase wallet app, which basically lets you trade anything. So I saw headlines that Coinbase had listed it, but to me, it looked at least it was only on their wallet app. Binance had listed it for non-US customers. Let me put it this way, guys. If Tesla...

Robin Hood is to finance what Tesla is to the automotive industry. Robin Hood's competition is Ford. Robin Hood's competition is Chrysler. They are so antiquated. They move so slowly. They are so bad.

Financial institutions are so bad. They might be literally the worst. The only sector I could think of that might be more old school thinking than finance would be the airline industry.

Okay. Like other than the airline industry, I don't even know if it gets any worse. So you have these bleeding edge. And by the way, you have the bleed, this bleeding edge ask for forgiveness later, executive team at Robin hood that wants to take over the world, but no one would let him do it. Yeah. But that, I mean, that got them in trouble a few years ago. So is there going to be another moment where they haven't prepared that they, they, you know, the kind of fly by the seat of your pants and,

is going to catch them in an issue like it did, you know, what was probably five, six years ago. Jordan, there's never been a better time for them in the next four years. So we'll see. I mean, I think they're going to see what they can get away with. And I just,

Robin Hood has to really screw things up to not be a $100, $150 billion company in 10 years, quite honestly. Or way less. Like if you look at their assets under management or assets that they have in-house compared to Charles Schwab, there's so much room for them to take additional customers. You're talking about taking from Charles Schwab? From anyone. Just new money, money from existing legacy brokers. Yeah.

it it's the biggest problem with Charles Schwab is UI well and I think also the lack of being able to trade crypto um in any of those types of apps well I just think Jordan they will never they will never have the same decision making um

kind of, they will never act like Robin hood. They, they're, they have too much to lose. Yeah. If you look at the board, you look at the management, you look at the age of the people running that company. I mean, you know, this man, we worked in big companies. Like it's just, it's night and day. Yeah. But you're also talking about money, right? And so you're talking about people's nest eggs and do they trust now some people trust their nest egg with Robin hood, Dave, um,

I don't know if I would. Jordan, me and you are really conservative when it comes to stuff like that. The rest of the world, and especially young people, don't think like us. They do not think about that. They don't care about that. They just think it's somebody else's problem. This is just the money's there. It's there. Correct. No big deal. They are stewarded accounts, so most likely things are fine. Correct.

I can't think of a better trade, honestly, in terms of upside and risk-reward. What is that comment, Dave? This comment is just wanting one of us to address the false narrative that it was only Robinhood that was restricting trading in GameStop. It was not. They were not the only ones, and it was –

It was a decision that I went on the air on this very podcast and just said how much I hated the decision that they made, that it was just wrong. They should have not deleted the buy button. Like,

It was not a good thing, but they were not the only ones. They just got the visibility because everybody who was like a degenerate buying GameStop was on Robinhood. That's the issue, right? And so the demographics of the people in this trade were viewed as Robinhood customers.

Okay, time out for a second. They did not... The mistakes that Robinhood made, and they were big mistakes, were made before that that allowed them to get to that point. But the day when they did not let you buy Robinhood, they had no choice. The only other option they had was to say you can't buy it or you can't sell it. So would you rather have them said you can't do anything or would you rather have them say, hey...

We can allow you to sell it but not buy it. Because there was no option, Dave, for them to continue to allow people to buy it.

It sucked. It was terrible. They should have not gotten in that position through their, through their, like, they're not a risk management. We're a marketing company. They're a very nice marketing layer on top of a backend that the trading is happening on. It's not, it's not, they're not a market maker or weren't at least at that point. I don't know if they are now. No. Yeah. I mean, they go through a clearing house.

Yeah, I think a lot, you know, a lot of these brokers are the same these days. But Robinhood, I think, will radically transform themselves over the next decade. They're just getting started. It's their game to lose, quite honestly. And when you look at the type.

of trading that will happen the next few years under this administration. I don't know that we'll see a lot more meme coin stuff. We'll see whether we do or whether we don't. It's certainly, I can't imagine that we're going to see another Trump family meme coin official. Well, I'll tell you this thousands of them that are unofficial and people trying to like have their own little degenerate economy using the Trump name.

I can't. I first of all, can't believe that that even happened the Friday before the inauguration to have have Trump actually tweet out a meme coin that he owned 80 percent of. I think. In fact, I know. What world are we living in? Aren't there laws against things like this?

Well, Jordan, the thing is... There's no regulation. I'm not making excuses. Jerry Gensler quit or got fired. I'm not making excuses for anyone. I think it's inappropriate. But it was essentially... And from what I understand, because I have a lot of contacts in and around that world, it was essentially a licensing deal. Virtually none of them were aware of it.

like literally or cared about it or even thought about it for like two seconds except for baron baron yeah yeah maybe except for baron i don't know anything about baron's situation but it it was a it just it's just a licensing deal um they have so many licensing deals you know this is what trump has done forever and i don't think any of them anticipated that that would have happened but i i

I wouldn't overthink it. Didn't basically, didn't the Supreme Court basically say Trump can't do anything? Anything he does is not illegal. So I think he's fine. It is legal to do crime now. I'm about to launch my own shit coin. We'll talk about that later. But Dave, what... Because mine actually has a good cause. I thought presidents and people were supposed to put things into blind trusts and have...

That was the old days. 2000 teens. Come on, man. That's a, you probably still are waiting to see Trump's tax return from 2015. There's no, there's no rules anymore. There are no rules, no rules at all. I mean, he also owns, you can't, you don't forget about world Liberty finance financial.

that just sounds like did you say that they uh they tweeted they they have now purchased a strategic reserve of their own of bitcoin and ethereum and like several of the uh the other coins

And we saw the, I think Eric retweeted that or Don Jr. retweeted that. Okay. Can we take a step back for a second? What's the takeaway from the Trump coin? Because like everybody's thinking surface level about this, but there's actually a huge takeaway. This coin, even if it was Trump, went from zero to $70 billion instantaneously. What that tells me

is that the world of crypto and mean coins is not going anywhere

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Chris, you and I were talking about Trump coin. We ended up being in Trump coin through one of the funds that we are invested in. I downloaded the app just because I thought it was insane that the future president of the United States tweeted an app or a website with a link to an app where you could buy his shit coin using your credit card. So I downloaded the app. I wanted to see what it was like.

I told Megan about that. She downloaded the app. She bought Trump coin. She lost 50% of her money on Trump coin, a hundred dollars. She was just playing around, but she's now a full on degenerate because after she sold her Trump coin for a loss, she was like, well, I got $50 in this app. Now, what am I going to do with it? So she bought some other, whatever, one of the trending things on that app was. Wait, what app? What app? The app that the app that Trump promotes.

promoted it's uh called moonshot i still i have money in moonshot right now i have 277 dollars in my moonshot account you need to get her on robin hood um that's what i'm saying she she is on robin hood i already got her at an account there her the majority of her money is still at e-trade i'm waiting for robin hood to do another uh promotion to give her two percent of her uh assets to move over um

But she has a Robin Hood gold card. She has the Robin Hood app. She just couldn't trade Trump coin on it fast enough. So she had to download this degenerate app that has made her a full on degenerate gambler. She was driving. She was driving and she texted me saying, I just bought this coin. Can you look at it? And it was called, I don't know what it was. Hang on. It was called AI rig complex. It's like, what?

What did you buy? Do you know what that is? She's like, no, but it was going up. Oh, God. You know, I don't think... She's up 22% in this shit coin that she bought yesterday. Oh, nice. That's good.

I don't think, is there a single, listen, we're old. So that's $11? Yes. Dude, we're old. So we were joking about it and I was at lunch without her yesterday and I was like, well, I don't like the one that you bought.

which was not that AI one. It was something else that she was losing money on. And this cat, there was a cat one that was going up also. So I bought that and I was watching the stock track. I literally got my lunch paid for with a $50 gamble. I made $30 cashed out and got my lunch paid for by a cat. $30 lunch? What are you eating?

Big spending, I know. All right, guys. Back to reality. I know we have a hard stop in about 10 minutes. The fact that you're doing this with Megan, we're all old. I don't have a single text group that I'm in that doesn't have at least one, if not multiple, shitcoin traders in it. And we're not in our 20s, okay? Could you imagine what it's like

to be a 23 or 24 year old in your have a text group is there anyone in there that's not trading shit coins i mean i i that's what i'm this is a big freaking deal that is the whole world is trading this stuff probably 25 of my thesis on robin hood is degenerates

But Howard Lentz has been preaching this for a while, the degenerate economy. It's all he talks about. And I do agree with him. We're moving in that direction. And it's just for some people, it's an entry ramp. Some people stick with it forever, but it's part of our culture now. It just is. I don't love it, but it is. And I don't see anyone that's going to benefit off of it more than

that's tradable than Robinhood. Because once you get into Robinhood,

you're doing more than that guys, right? We all know this. You're doing more than that. If you look at the app, you look at the UI and entices you to think about retirement. Okay. It entices your IRA. Yes. They have like a pie chart where you can maximize your match from Robin hood. They pay you money to put your money into an IRA with them. It's they're kind of like the dual lingo of finance, you know, dueling goes done so well this last year because they've made it

fun. And they make fun of you if you spend more than a few days and don't do any learning in the chosen language that you're attempting to learn. And they just, they're just amazing at what they do. Robinhood's the closest thing we have to that in finance. And I don't see that going away anytime soon. When you look at the upside we talked about, there's massive upside in Robinhood. When I look at the downside on Robinhood,

i mean i know the stock has pumped a ridiculous amount since we started talking about it a few months ago which is just insane um but as a company like can you think of anything that would really kind of just gouge this cut like that could really pull this thesis apart i mean jordan dave what can pull this thesis apart the only thing that i mean i've shared my concern and that's if

look you can make fun of the people at Charles Schwab for being financial nerds and too conservative but they're stewarding people's life savings right and so if there's some unforeseen issue or skirting around regulations or deregulation causing things to be less safe then

You know, maybe Hood does something and puts accounts in a position that... But I'll counter that, Jordan. I think bad publicity is a risk factor. I'm not saying it's going to happen. I'm just saying that if there were going to be something to happen, do you think it's going to be to Schwab or to Robin Hood? Okay, well, Jordan, I think if you look at what happened to Schwab during the last couple of years when we had the banking chaos, Schwab was actually the company that was picked that was over-levered. Okay?

Okay. That people were saying was going to be in massive, massive trouble because of the way that they were structuring a lot of, a lot of the, the savings behind the scenes and, and, and how they were managing that with. Yeah. That's been a weird issue for the last few years because of,

because of rates. Right. So, um, but yeah, but I mean, that was Schwab. Okay. Like, like that, that was not Robin hood. Robin hood is, I think is a cleaner ish business. Right. I don't believe. Well, there's funded on equity instead of debt. I mean, they're an earlier stage business, so they're, you know, they're not, they're not financing with debt yet, but, but that's anyway. I mean, I think negative publicity is a risk factor for Robin hood, but it's also a risk factor for Schwab.

Schwab has had operational issues. They've had outages. They've had widespread complaints on this very channel about their app interface being. I think that's the biggest risk to Schwab is their app is awful. I can barely use it at times. They're they've had legal action for offering unreasonably low rates in their cash sweep program.

they're, they're, they're not, I mean, they're the golden goose, because they have all of everyone's money. But I think they I think they're at bigger risk of losing accounts than Robin Hood. Well, I think just mainly to promos, right? And I think these promos that Robin Hood's been going on when doing how sustainable is that? I don't know.

Well, they've already said in their earnings that the promos, they have a payback period for every promotional dollar they spend. And they know exactly how much they can offer and the value of the accounts that they attract. And they know that, for example, IRAs are better for them than investing accounts or vice versa. I'm not, I can't recall which, but they're very scientific about their marketing spend.

I think they'll be fine, Jordan. I think it's less about... I think that was a short-term thing for them to get more people interested in Robinhood in a real way and actually moving some real dollars over to...

I'm more interested in the 10-year play for Robinhood, quite honestly, and the extent to which the market starts to understand that might not take 10 years, right? And they might pull that forward a lot more quickly here in the next few years. So I love Robinhood. I think they're perfectly positioned to benefit in this environment. I think the other sector that's beautifully positioned in this deregulatory environment is technology and AI. I mean, this is not what this show is about necessarily, but...

If you think about this as what is Trump not going to do as opposed to what do you need Trump to do to help your sector or to help this specific company? I think Trump is just going to lay off.

Yep. This sector. He's he's not going to think about it. He's going to let him do what they want to do. He's we're not going to have to worry. Right. He already wrote back one of Biden's AI regulations. And I think that he's basically going to say, yeah, just do your thing. And if you're a CEO who is at his inauguration, you are one of the top four people in the world related to building an AI platform.

Yes. Yeah. Agreed. Agreed. I want to talk about one thing. There is a Trump trade that I think is relevant that we should discuss because I think it can be real if you do want a fast trade rate system, Trump events. And I think that is the tariff, the Mexico Canada tariff threat that I guess is a 30 day period. So I don't really have. He said February 1st, which that's like nine days from now.

Okay, so this is interesting. I didn't even check the account today, but there are a couple companies that are definitely at risk here in a very big way. So you think about the beer companies, right? The one specifically that owns Modelo and all the Mexican beers. I want to say that it's what's called Constellation Brands.

So Mexican beer and Mexican product is 84% of their revenue, 84% of their revenue. Um, now they got destroyed this last earnings constellation brands, uh, just based on people drinking less alcohol, uh, and less beer. I mean, that company got completely destroyed.

So they're already kind of in a bad place. And if these tariffs actually take place in Mexico, they have to be the biggest target for those tariffs is Constellation. You haven't pulled up, Dave? Yeah, here's the stock chart. And when Constellation Brands took a hit back on January 10th. We've been talking about this for a while. Here's a wider look.

This is the multiple trends converging, which is people that are on Ozempic and similar drugs that are consuming meaningfully less alcohol. And you have, Jen, you know, basically younger millennials, teens.

and Gen Z that are consuming meaningfully less alcohol. It's all happening at once, and we're starting to see it come out in the numbers. No doubt about that. I don't think they're in a good position to handle a tariff that hits 84%.

of their revenue. That would be catastrophic to them. The other one that pops up is Canada goose. Now Canada goose is actually up a little bit today, probably because maybe it's weather oriented. It's just so darn cold right now. Vortex helps their stock every time. Yeah. Yeah. And we, we've tried that in the past, but Canada goose makes all of their coats in Canada. I think 70 some odd percent are in Canada and I want to say 30%.

are sourced out of Europe, but that would be catastrophic for them, for Canada Goose. Absolutely catastrophic. That's a one-year chart for Canada Goose, and here is their one month on the upswing.

Yeah, it's a real problem. Then you have stuff like avocados. I don't know what the avocado trade is unless it's Chipotle because they use so many avocados, right? That's not interesting to me. But I think if you want to trade this tariff issue that should...

That should surface or like materialize or not, Dave, what in the next two weeks it's going. So this is a trade. This is a real trade that you could focus on. Those are the two stocks or two of a few stocks that I would hammer in on. And really the currency, if you really wanted to play that, the currency exchange market is where you play that. Right.

Instead of having to go all the way down to a product being affected? No, because I don't think that retail traders are able to fast trade the currency market as quickly because that's such an institutionalized market. Not yet. Wait until Robinhood currency market comes out.

So, no, but Dave, I'm serious. There's an arbitrage window here, right? To when it becomes obvious that the move is going to happen. And I think it's really important if you want to play the game that Jordan talked about earlier in this episode, which to me seems horrible. It just, that would wreck my life having to think about this stuff every second of the day. But if that's what you want to do, um,

I think it's really critical to follow the right people on X and to have alerts sent to you. There are a few dozen people affiliated with the administration, and you guys can chat about them here in the thread, that if you're following them, you are likely to get that information in real time because it's not going to be announced like at like

at a formal time. Someone's going to leak it. That's how this administration works. Someone is going to sporadically say something. And it might be Trump randomly in an interview while he's talking, saying, you know what? We're doing it. We're doing it. It's 25% tariffs on Mexico. I'm sick and tired of their crap. And at that moment,

You should have your... And then the White House staffer that you're following will tweet it on their burner account. And that's how the news works these days. Yeah. That's what I would do at least. We're not financial advisors. But if I wanted to do that trading type of trading methodology, I would be following people. But you have to have a prepared mind. You have to have those trades ready to go. And you cannot hesitate. You need to know which options you're going to trade. Which...

week by week you have to have it ready to go is tesla going green there we go man no it has not gone green but the um one of our viewers nature walk is calling it they are saying it's going green today it's bounced it's only down two percent now yeah here's here's a here's a real-time look at the uh chart there okay off of its lows if you bought it first thing this morning if you bought that dip you'd already be up

Dave, I'm going to tease our next episode that I really am going to ask you to please do with me this week. It is a playoff of NVIDIA.

that I discovered that I did not discover. Someone in our community discovered it. I would say I almost stole someone's idea. Our dumb money discord, which you can get to for free by going to dumbmoney.tv slash discord. If anyone ever asked you for money on our behalf or that we're going to manage it, it's not us. Don't ever give any money to anyone you find online. There is a person. You found a trade idea on dumb money's discord. Yeah.

There is a person in that discord that about a week ago came up with an idea that I have since spent about 10 hours researching and I really like it. And I, I already traded it. It's doing well so far, but this is not a trade that has played out yet. And I want to do an entire show on it because it's a really interesting, pure, like kind of,

Social arbitrate. It's a tech. You know, people always think we trade brands and trends and cultural shifts and consumer behavior, which we certainly do. But sometimes arbitraging technology is the best social arbitrate out there. So is this an NVIDIA trade, though? Because it's not NVIDIA. OK, not NVIDIA. It's a trade that is it's NVIDIA. Yeah.

it's adjacent that is impacted by something that nvidia is doing and i i'm in man i'm in so i

We're going to do that episode if you guys are cool with it this week. It'll be a fun one. You could throw NVIDIA in the title, Dave. That way people might actually watch it. People will actually watch it. We've noticed that any time we do a show about NVIDIA, it gets a lot of views. Yeah. But this is the legit NVIDIA trade that I think almost nobody is talking about. That's the title of the thumbnail right there. The legit NVIDIA trade that nobody is talking about.

Dude, I am good, but I'm not trying. I'm not trying. I'm good. Okay, so that's it, guys. I added more Robinhood today. I'm not really messing with anything else in my portfolio. If I fast trade anything Trump-related, it is likely to be one of those two stocks on the short side in the next couple weeks. I'm not going to overthink the Trump stuff now. Most of my Trump trades are done. They're gone. It's been an awesome six months.

What an amazing time to be trading politics the last six months. But now it gets real. And I think there's a lot more opportunity outside of Trump than there is within Trump's daily kind of whatever the hell he's talking about, trying to fast trade him. Now, I think following some Twitter accounts that track other politicians is a far easier trade than trying to fast trade Trump.

But then you're one way or the other. Slow trading Pelosi is easier than fast trading Trump. Everybody's doing Pelosi, but the problem with that, Dave, is they're simply trading. That's my reason. Like, I don't care what she invests in. The fact that she invests in it, make other people invest in it. No, no, I'm with you on that. By the way, I checked last night that stock. What is it? TEM, Tim? Is that right? Yeah. Yeah.

yet another case for Robinhood because you could have traded that stock in the middle. I was looking at my Robinhood app that has like virtually no money in it going. I

I need to get more money in this app just for the stupid overnight trading, if nothing else. I was thinking the same thing when I saw that Trump coin. I don't have enough Solana in something that had access to Trump to be able to do anything real. Why can't I trade overnight on Schwab? I don't understand. Why can't I do that?

You'll be able to. I'm sure they'll do that as soon as they possibly can have a third party vendor that does the trading for them. I don't know that they will. I don't know that they will. I talked to them about changing the UI on their app. They said they're putting a team together and they're going to put me on the team.

They did. They said they're going to put me on the team to help. Make sure you wear that Robin Hood t-shirt to the meeting. Hey, just tell them it shouldn't log you out in the middle of a transaction. That would be nice. Just tell them to open up their API so that you can use the Robin Hood interface. Or just move your money to Robin Hood. I don't trust them. Oh!

but that's the one area where I act like a boomer. It's the one area. By the way, I don't trust anyone. And I feel like I need to have my money across 18 different. Yeah. It's actually, I don't, you should split at least have two or three. Yeah. Yeah. I don't, I don't trust any of them. All right. I've got to go. Oh, sorry, man. That's right. We all got to go. So it's been a good one. Our first show of 25.

Dave, next time you need to talk, give everyone a little bit, share a little bit about this three-week Africa trip you just took. It was a month and it was amazing. I guess everyone should just follow Megan on Facebook because that's where all my photos are. Thanks, guys. All right. That's going to do it for this one. Thank you guys so much for watching. Chris? Later this week, the NVIDIA trade nobody's

Nobody knows about except people in our discord. So they don't even know about it. That'll be a very long title, except for people in our discard. Everyone in our discord ignored this person. This person threw out the idea. I saw it. I'm like, I'm going to do all the research and then reshare it with them, which I haven't done yet. That's why I can't do the episode yet. I want to reshare it in the discord, but, and I forgot and no one paid attention. I'm like, this guy is a great idea.

All right. We'll find out what that is later this week or next week. Whenever, whenever we get around to it, I'm free this week. All right. All right. We're done money. We'll see you on.