Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Software Under Investigation
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Hey everybody, welcome back to the Elon Musk Podcast. This is a show where we discuss the critical crossroads that shape SpaceX, Tesla, X, The Boring Company, and Neuralink. I'm your host, Will Walden.

How effective is Tesla's full self-driving system under poor visibility? And also, what led a new federal investigation targeting Tesla's driver assistance tech? Could this scrutiny disrupt Elon Musk's robo-taxi?

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration announced a preliminary evaluation into Tesla's FSD technology after four reported crashes between November 2023 and May 2024. These incidents all occurred under reduced visibility conditions such as fog, sunglare, or airborne dust.

The agency's focus is whether the software is capable of detecting and responding appropriately in such scenarios. One of these incidents in Rimrock, Arizona, involved a Tesla Model Y striking and killing a pedestrian. The crashes have prompted concerns over the system's reliability in non-ideal driving environments, leading to broader inquiries into its operational safety.

The investigation affects approximately 2.4 million Tesla vehicles equipped with FSD, spanning models released between 2016 and 2024. This includes Model S, Model X, Model 3, and Model Y, and also the 2023-2024 Cybertruck. The preliminary evaluation is just the first step in a potentially lengthy process that could lead to recalls if the vehicles are deemed a safety risk.

The investigation will assess whether Tesla has made updates to the FSD system to improve its handling of poor visibility. And the NHTSA is also evaluating the safety implications of the updates, examining their timing, purpose, and effectiveness. Now, the four crashes under investigation are under certain scenarios with SFD appeared to falter.

Rimrock, Arizona, November 2023. I already spoke about that when a pedestrian was killed after being struck by a 2021 Tesla Model Y. January 2024, Nipton, California. A Model 3 collided with another vehicle during a dust storm.

And Red Mills, Virginia, in March of 2024, a Model 3 was involved in a crash on a cloudy day. And Collinsville, Ohio, May 2024, a Model 3 hit a stationary object on a foggy rural road, resulting in injuries. Now, the NHTSA is seeking to determine if these incidents are indicative of broader systematic issues within the full self-driving system.

Tesla has long marketed FSD software as a step toward autonomous driving, though it currently requires driver supervision. And on its website, Tesla clearly states that FSD is not a fully autonomous system in advisors' users to remain attentive during driving behind the wheel. The system has faced scrutiny throughout the years, with critics arguing that Tesla's reliance on a camera-only approach without supplemental sensors like radar or LiDAR may limit its reliability in adverse conditions.

And some industry experts suggest that weather-related challenges could be a critical hurdle for Tesla's self-driving.

This latest probe is not Tesla's first encounter with regulators. Earlier in 2023, NHTSA closed an investigation into Tesla's less advanced autopilot system after examining nearly 500 crashes. That inquiry identified 13 fatal accidents, leading to heightened concerns about Tesla's driver assistance technology. Tesla also faces lawsuits and government investigations into its claims about autopilot and FSD.

In one high-profile case, Tesla reached a settlement earlier this year, avoiding a trial over an autopilot-related crash. Meanwhile, the Department of Justice has issued subpoenas related to Tesla's self-driving claims, and the California Department of Motor Vehicles has accused the company of overstating the system's capabilities.

Elon Musk has frequently touted Tesla's advancements in autonomous technology, positioning it as a cornerstone of the company's future. Just a week before the investigation was announced, Musk unveiled a prototype of the CyberCab, a two-seater robotaxi concept without a steering wheel or pedals. Musk claimed that Model 3s and Model Y vehicles would operate without supervision in California and Texas by 2025, but offered no specifics on how this would be achieved.

However, regulatory hurdles loom large. For Tesla to deploy vehicles without traditional controls, approval from NHTSA would be required. This poses a huge challenge as the agency investigates Tesla's current technology and its ability to ensure safety.

Tesla's approach to autonomous driving relies exclusively on camera-based vision systems powered by artificial intelligence, a method some experts argue is vulnerable to environmental limitations. And competing companies such as Waymo and Cruise incorporate LIDAR and radar technology to enhance their systems' ability to navigate complex environments.

Jeff Schuster, who is a vice president at Global Data, noted that weather conditions could impede the performance of camera-based systems, adding that regulatory oversight may delay Tesla's deployment of fully autonomous vehicles. And the investigation adds to more pressure on Tesla as it faces increased competition in the electric vehicle market.

The company's focus on self-driving technology comes amid slowing demand for its core vehicles, and rivals are making strides in the robotaxi space with more robust sensor arrays. Tesla's legal troubles and regulatory scrutiny could also impact investor confidence. While Tesla's stock rose slightly after the announcement of the investigation, prolonged uncertainty could weigh on the company's market position.

Now, what's next? The NHTSA's preliminary evaluation is expected to last up to eight months. If the agency identifies significant safety risks, it could escalate the investigation to an engineering analysis or recommend a recall. Tesla has not commented publicly on the latest probe, leaving questions about its next steps unanswered. The agency is also examining whether Tesla drivers are adequately adhering to instructions to remain engaged while using FSD.

Past investigations into autopilot revealed instances where drivers relied too heavily on the system, leading to accidents.

Tesla has faced other fatal accidents involving its driver assist systems. In one instance in April of 2023, a Model S operating in FSD mode struck and killed a motorist near Seattle. Such incidents have drawn criticism from safety advocates who argue that Tesla's branding of the software as full self-driving can mislead users into overestimating its capabilities.

The company's December 2023 recall of more than 2 million vehicles to address issues with its autopilot system also remains under review. The NHTSA is still evaluating whether those measures adequately resolve concerns about drivers not paying attention.

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