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Questions and Answers: Volume 30

2025/5/1
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Everything Everywhere Daily

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Gary: 我从未想过参加《危险边缘》节目,因为这不仅需要知识,还需要技巧,例如选择类别、下注和抢答。我熟悉《危险边缘》,但我不是经常观看者。此外,如果在《危险边缘》成功,他们会提前几周录制节目。如果我正在制作每日播客并且没有更新剧集,人们就会知道我还参加了《危险边缘》,这会造成很多问题。因此,我不确定我是否可以参加《危险边缘》。 Gary: 我去过台湾两次,推荐大家参观国立故宫博物院,那里收藏着许多中国文化的伟大艺术作品。在1999年和2007年,我去过台湾,台北在这期间发生了巨大的变化。我只在台北待过,推荐大家参观国立故宫博物院,那里收藏着许多中国文化的伟大艺术作品。我希望将来能再去台湾,看看台北的变化,以及参观我还没去过的其他地方。 Gary: 我去过哥斯达黎加,参观了林孔火山国家公园和泰潘蒂国家公园,未来会制作一期关于哥斯达黎加的节目。哥斯达黎加是中美洲的明星国家,它避免了许多困扰邻国的革命和内战等问题。哥斯达黎加将来会成为一期节目的主题,并且肯定会在其他剧集中被提及。我之前做过一期关于中美洲地区的节目,我需要重新访问该地区,并制作一些关于各个国家的节目。 Gary: 如果我在死刑犯,我的最后一餐会选择河豚刺身,因为即使准备不当,我也已经死了。即使这道菜没有正确烹制,无论如何我都会死了,所以为什么不呢?这可能是唯一一次你可以吃这道菜而不会有任何风险的情况。 Gary: 我不会提供财务建议,也不会透露我的具体投资细节,但我关注宏观经济新闻,并遵循一些投资原则,例如关注长期宏观趋势。在90年代,我亲眼目睹了早期互联网的发展,当时我认识的每个人都知道这将是一件非常重要的事情。诀窍是找到合适的公司进行投资。有很多荒谬的公司获得了资金,有些公司甚至上市了。然而,关于互联网的普遍情绪是正确的,并且超过了即使是最乐观的估计。做得好的公司做得非常好。今天还有其他我认为已经确定的趋势,特别是大多数国家的出生率下降。这是目前无法避免的事情。同样,当今世界存在大量的债务,无论是公共债务还是私人债务,这都将受到我提到的出生率下降的影响。人工智能可能将成为一项主要的科技趋势,但我不知道赢家是谁,也不知道它将如何影响社会。确定这些宏观长期趋势的目的是帮助缩小投资和避免投资的范围。我不太相信持续交易。像彼得·林奇和沃伦·巴菲特这样的成功投资者通过买入并持有策略获得了极大的成功。如果你不想花那么多时间来识别这些趋势及其含义,你可以始终将你的钱存入指数基金,这是投资的基准。 Gary: 金属船只在水下存活多久取决于金属类型和水质,例如在缺氧环境中,船只可以保存数千年。水中溶解有氧气,因此东西绝对会在湖底生锈。也就是说,有些湖泊的环境缺氧,这意味着它们没有氧气,但这些湖泊往往很少见。金属船沉没后能持续多久取决于船上的金属和它所处的水的类型。深海的溶解氧比地表少。你越往下走,水就越难补充。小的有机颗粒会沉到底部并氧化,从水中去除溶解氧。对于普通的湖泊来说,它不够深,底部不会出现缺氧的情况。一些水体,如黑海,非常缺氧,能够保存数千年的沉船。同样,如果它是一艘铝船,它比铁或钢制成的船更耐腐蚀。因此,在不知道船或湖泊的情况下,真的不可能说。 Gary: 我对NFL选秀并不擅长预测,我认为人们对选秀投入了过多的时间和精力。我不知道在任何人真正上场之前如何评估选秀。我希望包装工队会选一名外接手,他们在第一轮确实这么做了。但除此之外,我们必须拭目以待。我认为人们对足球选秀投入了过多的时间和精力。大多数选秀球员最终都不会有什么成就,有些甚至非常糟糕。包装工队可能拥有NFL历史上最糟糕的选秀,他们在1989年选秀的第二轮选中了托尼·曼德里奇。曼德里奇完全失败的事实并不是坏事,而是包装工队放弃了巴里·桑德斯、迪翁·桑德斯和德里克·托马斯,他们都是名人堂球员,只是为了得到托尼·曼德里奇。格林湾今年主办选秀是因为这个城镇太小了,无法主办其他任何活动。虽然在兰博球场举行超级碗会很棒,但对于NFL来说,天气太冷了,更重要的是,社区的酒店房间不足以容纳所有人。我和我认识的每个人都在选秀期间避开了格林湾,因为它太繁忙了。 Gary: 如果凯撒没有成为终身独裁者,罗马最终可能会发展出某种类似帝国的统治制度。如果凯撒没有赢得内战,在接下来的一个世纪内,有人可能会采取行动来巩固权力。军团此时已经将他们的忠诚从共和国转移到了将军身上。这就是为什么在凯撒被暗杀后又发生了一场内战的原因之一。在这种环境下,我认为只是一个时间问题,有人会带着他们的军队试图控制一切。 Gary: 我制作节目的方式取决于具体情况,理想情况下我会提前几天或几周知道节目的主题,实际的写作和录音通常在节目播出前一天完成。理想情况下,我会提前几天或几周知道我会制作哪些剧集。仅仅知道剧集的内容就是战斗中的一大部分。实际的写作和录音总是在剧集播出前一天完成。但在开始写作之前,我需要知道剧集的内容以及剧集的走向。在制作了1400个独特的剧集之后,我已经到了这样一个地步:一旦我知道剧集的内容,实际的写作和录音就可以在短短几个小时内相对快速地完成。总是有很多我想制作的剧集,还有一些我想在某个时候制作,但我还没有弄清楚如何让剧集有意义。 Gary: 我是否会进行太空旅行取决于太空旅游的具体内容和成本,如果成本大幅降低,我会考虑。我无法想象花光我的积蓄去进行一次15分钟的亚轨道飞行,只为了体验几分钟的失重状态。这几乎是目前太空旅游的现状。为了值得,成本需要降低一到两个数量级。也就是说,这种事情可能在未来一二十年内发生。如果星舰能够定期飞行,并且被证明是完全可重复使用的,那么有一个计划中的配置,它可以一次大约容纳100人进行短暂的轨道飞行。这可能仍然很昂贵,但不会花光你所有钱的那种昂贵。在这种情况下,我至少会考虑一下。当然,这是假设他们在那时已经用几十次甚至数百次飞行证明了飞船的安全性。

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May is upon us. It's the month of spring in the Northern Hemisphere and of autumn in the South. It's the month of May Day, Mother's Day, as well as Bicycle Month and Haitian Heritage Month. However, the most important thing about May is that it provides yet another opportunity for your questions and my answers. Stay tuned for this month's questions and answers on this episode of Everything Everywhere Daily. ♪♪♪

This episode is sponsored by Quince. If you've been listening to the show for even a little while, you've heard me talk about Quince. The reason why I have such good things to say about them is because Quince has hit the trifecta by offering products that are low cost, high quality, and easy to purchase and return online. They can do this because they work directly with top artisans and cut out the middleman. This is how Quince gives you luxury pieces without the crazy markups.

I had someone over at my place the other day and they asked me, where's that Quince blanket you talk about? And I said, it's right there. And they checked it out and said, wow, that's really a nice blanket. And I was like, yeah, it is. If you're looking for men's or women's clothing, home goods, or travel accessories, you owe it to yourself to check out Quince. Go to quince.com slash daily for 365 day returns plus free shipping on your order.

That's Q-U-I-N-C-E dot com slash daily to get free shipping and 365 day returns. Quince dot com slash daily. If you enjoy everything everywhere daily, I think you'll love No Fixed Address, a travel podcast that your backstage pass to the world's hidden gems. For the past three years, hosts Michael and Vanessa have been living out of suitcases, trading a fixed address for street food stands. They're obviously my type of people.

And for Season 2, they're diving deep into food. Not just what's on the plate, but the people, the places, and the stories behind it. Listen in on a midnight kitchen session with one of Columbia's most beloved chefs. Taste what top chefs call California gold, an ultra-premium uni hand-harvested by the state's only female diver. And step back in time for a matcha ceremony with a tea master in Japan.

Plus, hear from travel experts like travel channel and PBS host Samantha Brown on which destinations have shaped them and how to get the most out of every journey abroad. No fixed address is available wherever you listen to podcasts. Let's jump right into things with the first question, and it comes from Dan in Australia, who emailed me and asks, Hi Gary, with all the research you've done for your podcast, have you ever thought about going on Jeopardy? Thanks.

Honestly, Dan, I have never given any thought to appearing on Jeopardy or any game show. Jeopardy isn't just a matter of knowing stuff. There is a skill involved that involves properly selecting categories, betting, and buzzing in. Could I become a Jeopardy champion? Think so. But then again, I could just as easily fall flat in my face depending on the categories that are available. There are a great many things that I know absolutely nothing about, including most pop culture.

I'm familiar with Jeopardy, but I'm not a regular watcher. I'll watch it if it's on, but I don't go out of my way. Moreover, if you're successful on Jeopardy, they record the show several weeks in advance. And if I'm doing a daily podcast and I wasn't updating the episodes, people would know that I was still on Jeopardy, which would cause a lot of problems. So I'm not entirely certain that I could be on Jeopardy.

HC Gamers over on the Discord server asks, Hello Gary from Taiwan. Have you ever gone to Taiwan before? If so, what places do you like? Well, yes, I have been to Taiwan. Twice, in fact. I was there in 1999 on one of my very first visits outside of North America. And I returned there nearing the start of my full-time travels in 2007. During that eight-year period of time, Taipei changed dramatically. I can only imagine how much it's changed since I was last there.

I really didn't get far beyond Taipei in either of my visits. The one place I would recommend people visit is the National Palace Museum. What many people don't know is that many of the greatest works of art from Chinese culture reside in Taiwan, not mainland China. They were taken to Taiwan after the Chinese Civil War and still remain there today. I'd like to go back at some point and see how much of Taipei has changed, as well as to see the rest of the island, which I haven't seen yet.

Michael Porras from the Facebook group asks, Hi Gary, I'm originally from Costa Rica and I'm in the process of opening a completionist club here. Have you ever traveled to Costa Rica? Do you plan on making an episode about it? I look forward to hearing your thoughts. Keep up the great work. Well, yes, I've been to Costa Rica. I visited there in 2013 and in addition to San Jose, I visited Rincon Volcano National Park and Tepanti National Park, both of which are World Heritage Sites.

Costa Rica has really been the shining star of Central America over the last century, as it's managed to avoid many of the problems that have plagued its neighbors, such as revolution and civil war. Costa Rica will be the subject of its own episode in the future, and will certainly get a mention in other episodes. I did an episode on Central America as a region a while back, and I need to revisit the area and do some episodes on individual countries.

McKinney from the Discord server asks, Gary, I've asked before and I will try again because I love food. Since you've traveled plenty and ate many types of food, a hypothetical question. If you were on death row, what would you choose as your last meal? No limit on price. Well, McKinney, I guess I would have to go with fugu, the form of Japanese sashimi that comes from the poisonous puffer fish. If it isn't prepared correctly, it can be highly poisonous and can kill you. If I'm on death row, there doesn't seem to be much risk in the proposition.

Even if the dish isn't prepared correctly, I'll be dead either way, so why not? It's probably the only time you could have the dish in such a way that it would be a no-risk proposition. Fernando Diaz on the Facebook group asks, With so much knowledge and so many topics, what do you do with your money? Do you save it in a checking account, treasury bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, gold, etc.? Do you have a simple recipe for what to do with extra money? Is this a topic for a future episode?

Well, Fernando, I am not going to get into the business of giving financial advice, as that is not my job and there's a whole bunch of legal issues if you do that. And I'm also not going to get into the details of any specific investments that I'm making. That being said, I spend quite a bit of time following economic news at at least the macro level and have a few general rules that I follow. The biggest thing is to determine large-scale macroeconomic, technical, or demographic trends.

Back in the 90s, I had a front row seat to the early internet, and everyone I knew at the time knew it was going to be a really big deal. The trick was finding the right companies to invest in. There were many absurd companies that received funding and some that even went public. The general sentiment about the internet was correct, however, and outperformed even some of the most optimistic estimates. The companies that did well did extremely well.

There are other trends today that I think are locked in, in particular the demographic decline in most countries. This is something that just can't be avoided at this point. Likewise, there's a vast amount of debt in the world today, both public and private, and that is going to be impacted by the demographic decline that I mentioned. AI is probably going to be a major technology trend, but I'm not sure who the winners will be or how it's going to impact society.

The point of identifying these big picture long-term trends is that it helps narrow down the pool of what to invest in and what to avoid. I'm not a big believer in constantly trading. Successful investors like Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett have done extremely well with the buy and hold strategy. If you don't want to put that much work into identifying these trends and their implications, you can always just stick your money into an index fund, which is the sort of baseline for investing.

Barbara N. Kennedy from the Facebook group asks, My father took a barge off the bottom of a lake in Ireland many years ago. He was sure it would float because rust needed moisture and oxygen. How long would a metal boat survive underwater? Have there been cases of boats being salvaged years after sinking? The lake in question was in Ireland. For starters, there is dissolved oxygen in water, so things can absolutely rust at the bottom of a lake.

That being said, there are some lakes that have an anoxic environment, meaning they have no oxygen, but those tend to be rare. How long a metal boat could last after sinking would depend on the metal in the boat and the type of water it was in. The deep ocean has less dissolved oxygen than the surface. The further down you go, the more difficult it is for water to be replenished. Small organic particles will sink to the bottom and oxidize, removing dissolved oxygen from the water.

For the average lake, it isn't deep enough to have anoxic conditions at the bottom. Some bodies of water, like the Black Sea, are very anoxic and are able to preserve shipwrecks for thousands of years. Likewise, if it's an aluminum boat, it's going to be far more resistant to corrosion than if it's made out of iron or steel. So, without knowing the boat or the lake, it would really be impossible to say.

Jerry Gardner from the Facebook group asks, Since the NFL draft was in your home state of Wisconsin, did you get to go? Maybe a good topic for a future episode would be the history of the NFL draft. I had a bunch of people basically ask the same question about the draft, so I'm going to try to lump them all together and answer them here. I have no idea how to evaluate a draft before anyone has actually played a down. I hoped the Packers would draft a wide receiver, and they did in the first round. But beyond that, we'll have to wait and see.

I think there's far too much time and energy put into analyzing football drafts. The majority of draft picks never amount to much, and some are outright horrible. The Packers probably had the worst draft pick in NFL history when they selected Tony Mandrich in the second round of the 1989 draft.

The fact that Mandrich was a total bust wasn't the bad part so much as the fact that the Packers passed up Barry Sanders, Deion Sanders, and Derek Thomas, all of whom were Hall of Fame players, just to get Tony Mandrich. Green Bay hosted the draft this year because the town is too small to host anything else. While a Super Bowl at Lambeau Field would be amazing, it's too cold for the NFL ever to do it, and more importantly, there aren't enough hotel rooms in the community to host everyone.

I and everyone I know avoided Green Bay while the draft was being held because it was just too busy. Peter Ertle from the Facebook group asks, Alternative history is fraught with difficulty, exceeding predicting the future. However, if Caesar hadn't become dictator for life, any guesses how Rome might have evolved from there? Well, Peter, my guess, and it's nothing more than a guess, is that Rome would have eventually wound up with some sort of imperial-looking system of government at some point.

The Republic was on thin ice when Caesar won the Civil War. If it wasn't him, within the next century, someone would have probably made a move to consolidate power. The legions had shifted their loyalty from the Republic to the generals at this point. And this is one of the reasons why another civil war happened after Caesar was assassinated. In such an environment, I think it would have just been a matter of time before somebody took their army and tried to take control of everything.

Jordan from the Discord server asks, When you're making episodes, you start from a clean slate every day? I.e. pick a topic at the start of the day, research, write, record, and publish that night? Or do you constantly have several episodes at various states of completion at any given time? Well, Jordan, the answer is, it depends. Ideally, I know what episodes I'll be doing days or weeks in advance. Just knowing what the episode will be is a huge part of the battle.

The actual writing and recording are always done the day before an episode airs. But before I start writing, I need to have an idea of what the episode is going to be about and the arc that the episode is going to take. After 1,400 unique episodes, I've gotten to a point where once I know what the episode is going to be, the actual writing and recording can be done relatively quickly in just a few hours.

There's always a bunch of episodes I'm thinking about and some that I want to do at some point but I just haven't figured out how to make the episode make sense yet. The last question comes from Thewyandot on the Discord server who asks, "Would you travel to space if space tourism actually becomes a thing?" Well, it depends on what it entails and how much it costs. I can't see spending my life savings on a 15-minute suborbital flight for a few minutes of weightlessness. That's pretty much the current state of space tourism.

the cost would need to decrease by one or two orders of magnitude in order to be worth it. That being said, it is possible that such a thing might happen over the next decade or two. If Starship can fly on a regular basis, and it proves to be totally reusable, there is a planned configuration where it could take about 100 people at a time on brief orbital flights. This would still probably be expensive, but not spend everything you have expensive.

Under that sort of scenario, it would be something I'd at least consider. That is, of course, assuming that they've proved the safety of the ship at that point with dozens or if not hundreds of flights. That wraps up this month's question and answer episode. If you'd like to ask a question for next month's show, please join the Facebook group or the Discord server. If you want to know what the next episode is always going to be, I usually post it in both forums the day before or at least a few hours before. Links to both of which can be found in the show notes.

The executive producer of Everything Everywhere Daily is Charles Daniel. The associate producers are Austin Oakton and Cameron Kiefer. I want to thank everyone who supports the show over on Patreon. Your support helps make this podcast possible. I'd also like to thank all the members of the Everything Everywhere community who are active on the Facebook group and the Discord server. If you'd like to join in the discussion, there are links to both in the show notes. And as always, if you leave a review or send me a boostagram, you too can have it read on the show.