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cover of episode Episode 49: Pulling Global Markets Together with Laurence Balanco, CMT

Episode 49: Pulling Global Markets Together with Laurence Balanco, CMT

2025/3/14
logo of podcast Fill The Gap: The Official Podcast of the CMT Association

Fill The Gap: The Official Podcast of the CMT Association
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
D
David Lundgren
L
Laurence Balanco
T
Tyler Wood
Topics
David Lundgren: 我高度评价Laurence Balanco对全球金融市场的全面了解及其独特的整合视角。他是一位经验丰富的技术分析师，尤其擅长艾略特波浪理论，近年来更将Hank Pruden的思想融入其分析框架。 Tyler Wood: Laurence Balanco的分析方法强调趋势并非直线，并通过结构性变化来判断趋势的转变。他深入探讨了全球主要市场，并指出2025年许多市场正处于关键转折点。 Laurence Balanco: 我对市场的兴趣始于高中，大学期间通过岳父的投资开始关注市场，职业生涯早期在Societe Generale学习技术分析。我推荐初学者阅读John Murphy的《Visual Investor》来学习技术分析基础知识。在卖方和买方使用技术分析的方法有所不同，买方更注重长期趋势。在迪拜工作期间，我的技术分析方法更加注重价值导向，关注下行动能的减弱。过去15年是科技和美国市场主导的时代，未来新兴市场是否会重新崛起是一个值得关注的问题。我的分析方法结合了强势趋势、强势动量和拐点处的动量减弱来管理风险。我根据不同投资者的偏好（价值型或成长型）和资产类别调整我的技术分析工具。价值型投资者关注下跌的图表以寻找买入点，而成长型投资者关注上涨的图表以寻找买入点。在中国市场，由于其短期内反应过度，而西方市场反应不足的特点，我更倾向于使用DMARC指标。技术分析反映了市场行为，这在分析中经常被忽视。我更注重个股的图表设置，而非市场间的相关性，因为相关性会随着时间的推移而变化。 David Lundgren: 我欣赏Laurence Balanco对不同市场的广泛了解以及他整合这些市场独特视角。 Tyler Wood: 艾略特波浪理论的核心在于理解趋势并非直线，并通过规则判断趋势是否被打破。 Laurence Balanco: 艾略特波浪理论可以提供潜在的风险和收益，通过结构而非价格来设置止损点。艾略特波浪理论可以提供潜在的上涨目标，例如通过测量移动或斐波那契扩展。“超买”和“超卖”是一个误导性术语，动量往往比预期持续更久。Hank Pruden的S型曲线理论强调了市场行为的偏差，以及动量在趋势中的作用。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Laurence Balanco's career started with an interest in markets during his university years, influenced by the tech boom. He joined SocGen, learning from Thomas Schroeder, and later transitioned to the buy-side, adapting his technical analysis approach for portfolio management.
  • Early exposure to the TMT boom of the 90s
  • First job at SocGen's sales trading desk
  • Influence of Thomas Schroeder and John Murphy's 'Visual Investor'
  • Transition from sell-side to buy-side technical analysis
  • Experience in Dubai and CLSA

Shownotes Transcript

In this episode of Fill the Gap: The Official Podcast of the CMT Association, we welcome Laurence Balanco, CMT.

Laurence Balanco, CMT is a Technical Analyst at CLSA Australia Pty Ltd. Lawrence has a broad array of knowledge of all the different markets, and a real unique perspective about pulling all these different markets together. Back in the day he was very a very heavy user of Elliott Wave. Technicians that can do it well can do it well, and he's definitely one of them. In our time with him during this interview, we covered basically every market on the planet.

Fill the Gap, hosted by David Lundgren, CMT, CFA and Tyler Wood, CMT brings veteran market analysts and money managers onto a monthly podcast.

For complete show notes of every episode, visit: https://cmtassociation.org/development/podcasts/ Give us a shout:@dlundgren3333 or https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-lundgren-cmt-cfa-63b73b/@_TBone_Pickens or https://www.linkedin.com/in/tyler-wood-cmt-b8b0902/@CMTAssociation orhttps://www.linkedin.com/company/cmtassociationCMT Association is the global credentialing authority committed to advancing the discipline of technical analysis in the financial services industry. We serve members in over 137 countries. Our mission is to elevate investors mastery and skill in mitigating market risk and maximizing return in capital markets through a rigorous credentialing process, professional ethics, and continuous education. CMT Association formed in the late 1960s with headquarters in lower Manhattan, NY and Mumbai, India.Learn more at: www.cmtassociation.org