A Topsy-Turvy Week In Review
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If there's one thing I know how to do,

to make things gay. Even my name, you just take a limb, you make it a little gay. Oh, that's funny. I never thought about that. You never thought about that, Nathaniel? That gay is in your name? No. I assume that's the first thing that comes to people's mind the first time they hear my name. No, because gay is just like one syllable and it's like only like 40% of your name. Well, tell that to my fourth grade bullies, Nathaniel. Yeah, they weren't thinking about the data. This is not database bullying.

Hello and welcome to the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast. I'm Galen Droog. I was off last week, so thank you, Nathaniel, for filling in for me. It seems like a lot happened while I was gone. Not necessarily the kinds of things that we cover on this podcast, but I think it's a lot of things that we cover on this podcast.

But nonetheless, I'm going to ask my colleagues to catch me up and fill me in on what Americans think about some of what's happened, whether it is American politics and Trump's nominees and the likes, or some of the wilder things that have happened a

Good morning, Galen. How are you? I'm doing pretty well. It's good to see you after a week off. I missed you, Mary. We missed you, too. Although Nathaniel did an excellent job. Yeah.

So I hear. I have not heard yet, but I am. I'm going to listen. Good, Galen. You don't need to listen. It's fine. And also here with us is Senior Elections Analyst Nathaniel Rakich. Now I'm scared. What did I miss out on? I don't know. We'll never know. All existing copies of the podcast have been destroyed. So, uh-huh.

How are you, Galen? How was your vacation? It was nice to have those news notifications turned off. And truly, I wasn't even reading the papers. So I got to do a little bit of an experiment of sorts to see what trickles down when you're only consuming news by word of mouth. And I'll tell you that it was not a lot of American political news, to be honest. Well, I was visiting a friend out of the country. I also got a little bit sick. So I apologize. Please bear with my voice today. The

The things that trickled down to me were I heard about the killing of the United Healthcare CEO. I heard about something important but also confusing happening in South Korea involving martial law. And I heard about Assad fleeing Syria, although that's kind of cheating because the first time I heard about that was when producer Shane mentioned it to me on Slack once I got back online. And I'm going to be honest, as far as American politics are concerned, I'm not going to be

I did hear about Joe Biden pardoning Hunter, although that might have happened before I turned my notifications off. And I didn't really hear anything else. So Nathaniel and Mary, are you up to the task of catching me up? We'll do what we can. OK, so let's start at home and then we can get into some of the abroad stuff. I think that you covered the pardoning of Hunter Biden. But is there anything on that that I missed that's worth catching me up on, Nathaniel?

Well, we did get new information insofar as when we recorded that podcast, we didn't have any polling on how Americans felt about the Hunter Biden pardon. But we do have polling on that now, thanks to YouGov. So according to YouGov, 34 percent of Americans approved of the pardon and 50 percent disapproved.

That includes 35 percent who strongly disapprove. So unsurprising that Americans don't approve of that. What is interesting is that this is actually an improvement from the poll that was hypothetical that Mary cited on the podcast last week, which showed, I think, something like only 17 percent of Americans would have supported the pardon. It was something very, very lopsided. And basically, the difference there is that, interestingly, Democrats rallied around Biden. So in that

previous hypothetical poll from 2023, Democrats were opposed to the idea of pardoning Hunter Biden because that was a time when even Joe Biden himself was saying, no, I'm not going to do that. That would override the justice system and that would be bad. Obviously, Joe Biden was

changed his tune on that. And it seems like a lot of Democrats came around on that. And that just is, you know, example number 3,750,000 about how voters will follow the cues of the elites that they trust. And they'll say, oh, yeah, like that person, like that he did the right thing, you know, and kind of retroactively justify it.

All right, Nathaniel, thank you for catching me up on that. I'll also say right before I left town, Matt Gaetz had withdrawn his nomination to be the AG. And there has been some consternation around other Trump appointees as well. I'm curious, Mary, where does that all stand?

Have the markets gotten more confident in any of these nominees or have any others withdrawn? So no other cabinet level nominees have withdrawn since you left, Galen, although we did have a withdrawal of the nominee to lead the Drug Enforcement Administration. Chad Chronister had been nominated to that post and decided to withdraw his nomination, basically citing that he thought it was sort of

too big of a job and he didn't feel like it was appropriate for him at that time. But everyone else is still going on. We've had a lot of news and drama surrounding, in particular, Pete Hegseth, the nominee for Secretary of Defense. With respect to polling, this has been a really tricky thing to poll. So last week, we published...

semi-regular polling column, Pollapalooza. And I wrote a little bit about the difficulty that we might have in understanding how Americans feel about these nominees. There was an interesting sort of natural experiment out there in polling. YouGov asked favorability of a bunch of different Trump nominees in their weekly survey with The Economist.

For unrelated reasons, they threw in one Democrat in their favorability battery, which was Representative-elect Sarah McBride from Delaware. And it looks like folks basically figured out, oh, they're asking me about Trump nominees. And so every single person got high marks from Trump voters and low marks from Harris voters. Even Sarah McBride, who is a Democrat, has nothing to do with the Trump administration. So I would take really any polling you see about these with a big,

heaping spoonful of salt. Until Americans really get to know these folks, I think we're going to have a really difficult time understanding how people feel.

And frankly, they may never get to really know a lot of these folks. I mean, I know round one of the Trump administration, some of the cabinet members almost became famous in their own right. But I will tell you from one person who did not go out of his way to consume news over the past week, I heard absolutely nothing zilch about any of these nominees whatsoever. I didn't even hear about Tulsi Gabbard or more of the drama with Pete Hegseth until I logged on to

the news this morning. That gets at the point that we've been saying about some of these online surveys where people get a sense of, OK, I just need to click through. And that's how you get some ridiculous proportion or like 25 percent of Latino respondents in YouGov polls saying that they have licenses to operate nuclear submarines. Yeah, exactly. And I mean, frankly, a lot of this is very it feels like very Washington news. I mean, if you asked Americans to right now name who is the secretary of labor, they're

I suspect very few of them would be able to do so. Mary, who's the secretary of labor? I actually don't know. There is not a confirmed secretary of labor, actually, because the position has been vacant for two years. That's why I don't know, Galen. Yeah, exactly. That's it. I don't know why there's no one.

Thank you, Nathaniel, for saving both of us. But the acting secretary is Julie Hsu, to give her her props. A name I've definitely heard before. I mean, I did know that. I did know that. No, but I completely agree with Mary. You know, this is basically the one and only time you'll probably hear a lot of these people's names because, yeah, how many people from the first Trump administration's cabinet can you name? Probably not that many.

Even on some of the better known nominees that you have seen a lot of news coverage of, there are still a lot of people who report in the polls that ask about them that they don't have an opinion of them. And that means that a lot of these numbers, like the favorable and unfavorable numbers, are really kind of useless. So, for instance, a lot of the highest favorable ratings among the people who Trump has chosen belong to Elon Musk and RFP.

K Jr. And you might be like, oh, that's surprising. But also the highest unfavorable ratings belong to them because they're just the only ones that people know because those are famous names. People like Pete Hegseth, you know, opinion of him is not well set in. And so the people who are responding are mostly probably just responding, being like, oh, well, this guy is one of Trump's nominees and I like Trump or I don't like Trump and I'm voting, quote unquote, accordingly.

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Speaking of Congress, has the Republican majority in the House been finalized yet? Yes, we finally got the final projection last week. Yeah. After we recorded the podcast. All right. Drumroll. I'm waiting. I'm waiting.

What is it? Sorry. Sorry, Galen. I would have to be careful about the way I phrase this for reasons that will become clear. In the 2024 election, Republicans won 220 seats in the House and Democrats won 215, which is obviously a very narrow majority that is even narrower than the one they went in with. Democrats ended up picking up a seat in the House, which I think goes against a lot of the narratives that had set in in the kind of week after the election of Republicans having a really good night. They did in some ways, but not in the House.

It is, I believe, the narrowest majority in the House since the 1930s. That is obviously going to cause some trouble for Mike Johnson. Obviously, famously, the Republican caucus in the House has not been the easiest to control over the last couple of years or really over the last decade. And he is not going to be able to afford losing many votes at all. In fact,

He's actually not going to be able to afford to lose any votes whatsoever in the early going in all likelihood because Trump announced initially that he was going to pick three members of the House to join his administration. So we had Matt Gaetz, who already decided not to pursue the attorney generalship, but he already resigned from the House. So he's out.

You have Michael Walls, who's going to be the national security advisor, and you have Elise Stefanik, who was nominated to be the U.N. ambassador. So if all three of those people leave the House, then Republicans will be down to just 217 seats to Democrats 215, which means literally if one Republican decides to vote with Democrats, it would be 216 to 216, which is a tie, which means that whatever the bill is in question would not pass.

That is just no margin for error for Mike Johnson, at least until those seats, the Stefanik seat and the Gates seat and the Waltz seat get filled in special elections. The two Florida seats will be up in April, and we don't know yet the date for any New York special elections.

So what does this mean for the Trump agenda? On one hand, it takes time to write legislation. So filling those seats by April, you know, he only is inaugurated at the end of January. So February and March, maybe they're working on some legislation or they just agree enough under Trump's leadership that having the one seat advantage works.

will allow them to pass legislation through the House. But has anybody indicated so far that there are certain demands that they plan on making in this very narrowly led House?

I haven't heard about any specific members of Congress making demands, but I do think it'll have an impact on legislation because, of course, as folks know, the first 100 days of a presidency have historically been among the most productive. And 100 days after inauguration is April 30th. So a lot of that window is going to be that

217, 215 majority. And so I do think it's going to be really tricky for Republicans to pass something. A lot of the stuff so far has focused on like his cabinet nominations. And I don't know if you know, I don't think there'll be any Supreme Court nominations in the first 100 days or anything like that, but something like that. Those things are only in the Senate, right? The Senate is the one that has to confirm those. The House doesn't have to confirm cabinet nominees and Supreme Court justices. But once you start talking about big legislation, you

You know, I think that could run into some trouble. That said, there will also be pressure on Republican members of Congress to deliver for Trump in that first hundred days, because if they come out of the first hundred days with stories of infighting rather than tangible accomplishments, it's not going to kind of reflect well on the entire party. So there will probably be additional pressure to be cohesive than there would have been, you know, in 2020.

early 2026, for instance. But yeah, it's going to be tricky. We'll see. There's also a question of timing, too. So Stefanik in particular needs to be confirmed by the Senate and so may not resign her seat until that confirmation process is completed, which means there might be a brief window of time where Johns can at least spare more than one vote.

We'll see what happens. All right. The next news story I found out about in a somewhat odd way, which is that I got an email to my personal email account from our workplace saying that there was a shooting near our office on the Upper West Side in Manhattan. And I later found out that the CEO of UnitedHealthcare was shot and killed Wednesday morning by a shooter who is still at large. This sounds like a crazy story.

I am still relatively ignorant about the details, but it seems like it has something to do with health care insurance discontent. I don't know. Fill out the details for me, Mary. What's going on here? Well, I will say, I mean, we don't have all the details yet. The shooter is still at large and unidentified. So until authority, well, might be identified to authorities, but certainly not to the public.

So until authorities release more information about what they know about this shooter, we are a little in the dark. They did recover shell casings at the scene inscribed with the words delay and deny. Presumably that is a reference to tactics health insurance companies take to avoid having to pay for coverage. Although.

again, we're sort of assuming that without confirmation, without knowing really anything about who this person is that shot the CEO of UnitedHealthcare. It looks like there's a connection to some discontent with the health insurance system in the United States, but we're all awaiting more information just like you, Galen. Yeah, I mean...

If that is the case, we're once again talking about political violence in a sense, right? I mean, how has the public reacted to this if we know anything about it? I haven't seen any polling that asked about this particular incident specifically. There has been some polling in the sort of aftermath of this incident asking people how they think about violence.

health insurance and health care in this country. The day after the shooting, YouGov asked if people had a favorable or unfavorable view of the American health care system. And it's pretty close. About 42 percent said they have a favorable view and 49 percent said they had an unfavorable view. Interestingly, both Democrats and Republicans said

have a more favorable view than unfavorable. But independents seem to really dislike the American health care system. And that's what's driving that favorability number down. But what's interesting about asking people about health care is

While they may not have a super favorable view of the American health care system, generally people tend to like their own health care and health insurance. In that same YouGov survey, they asked if folks were satisfied or dissatisfied with their own health insurance, and 59 percent said they were satisfied.

This is sort of a weird quirk where people are like, well, the system is broken, but everything's going fine for me. A lot like how people dislike Congress, but like their own Congress member. I think you see some similar dynamics when you ask people about the American health care system.

Yeah, I think that's important context, Mary. And I just want to add before we move on from this that we have been made to talk about American views of political violence on this podcast several times this year. And obviously, the motive is still unclear. I mean, I don't want to jump to too many conclusions based on bullet casings and the like. But, you know, we've talked about political violence in the context of a presidential candidate in Donald Trump.

overwhelmingly Americans reject it. Can we assume the same in a situation like this, Nathaniel?

Yeah, I think we can. You know, just to cite some numbers, you know, there was a Reuters Ipsos poll from last August that asked Americans whether they think it's acceptable for someone in their political party to commit political violence to kind of achieve their goals. Only 8% agreed. Sometimes you'll see some polls that often get a lot of splashy headlines that are like 25% of Americans think it's acceptable to do political violence. There have been studies, as we've talked about on this podcast, that show that, you

issues with question wording or methodology or things like that, those numbers are almost certainly overstated. There was one study from a bunch of political scientists that looked into the really kind of drilled down and, you know, use some kind of

clever polling experiments to see how people maybe really felt about murder as a political tool specifically. And they found that it was less than 2% of people who thought that was condoned. Obviously, again, as we have also mentioned on this podcast, 2% of a population of 300 plus million people is still, or I guess it's adults. So 200 something million people is still millions of people. And that's a problem. And obviously it just takes one bad person to do something like this.

But yeah, support for something like this, I would imagine is pretty low based on the data that we've had in the past. Today's podcast is brought to you by Shopify. Ready to make the smartest choice for your business? Say hello to Shopify, the global commerce platform that makes selling a breeze.

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That's Shopify.com slash 538. Foreign policy is one of the areas where American presidents have the fewest checks on their power. And so in this interregnum period between Harris losing the election and Trump being inaugurated,

Biden is still leading foreign policy, but obviously Trump is talking a lot about his own policy intentions and even talking to foreign leaders as well. So, again, I'm still not entirely sure what happened in South Korea. I understand the president declared martial law, but then it seems like he apologized for it and was not.

impeached. And then also, of course, Assad fled Syria to Russia and rebels have now claimed control of the country. We generally talk about these things from the perspective of American politics. So do Trump and Biden align on these things? Is there a sort of clear American policy as pertains to South Korea and Syria in this moment?

Yeah, it was. I mean, both of those developments, I think, were were pretty crazy. Really some major foreign policy news happening that has, I think, unpredictable

results for U.S. politics. Obviously, we are not a foreign policy podcast. If you're looking for information on these events, please go elsewhere. But the kind of general gist of things... All right, bye, guys. I'll see you later. Sorry. Yeah, sorry. Our numbers may just dip there. But the general gist is that, yeah, President Yoon Suk-yool, who has been kind of facing a lot of criticism internally, this is in South Korea, he...

He declared martial law the other day, and that caused a lot of chaos. And the parliament, or I think it's called the National Assembly in South Korea, basically immediately convened and said, no, you're not going to do that. And as a result, he has, I think, basically found himself effectively a lame duck.

It kind of just seems like a matter of time before he is forced to resign or the kind of investigations into him. I saw today that he had been barred from leaving the country. So obviously, it's a pretty kind of extraordinary things happening just from a rule of law perspective. To be perfectly honest, I, you know, as the kind of American

and having an Ameri-centric view of these things, my first thought wasn't necessarily about how the situation in South Korea was going to affect American politics, since we know that American voters don't typically care about foreign policy unless American troops are at war somewhere. But it was interesting to see another, obviously, like

very developed country, an American ally, an ostensible democracy, going through something like this and having those kind of guardrails tested in a way that's not dissimilar to how the January 6th insurrection unfolded here. And it was interesting to see the parliament or the legislature in South Korea rebuke

him and there was, I believe, a unanimous vote or a near unanimous vote to revoke the martial law statement. So even from members of his own party, they said no. The developments in Syria, obviously, the Syrian civil war has been going on for years and years and faded into the background a lot with other things that have been happening abroad, obviously, in Israel and with Ukraine.

A lot of uncertainty, I feel like, about how that's going to unfold with the Middle East broadly, especially given the other instability there recently. And I do think that as we have kind of been tiptoeing around for the last really year, a broader war in the Middle East is something that has the potential to really suck America in. Obviously, we have experience with that.

I think probably presumably even a foreign policy podcast probably wouldn't be able to tell you what's about to happen now. They could have some well-educated guesses, and I will certainly be checking those out as an interested consumer. But yeah, that is a situation I think that bears close watching and has the potential to perhaps really consume Donald Trump's re-foray into office.

Yeah. And if you look at the responses, especially in Syria that you saw from Trump and Biden, you can really see the divide in the approach to American foreign policy from these sort of two different presidents on display. So the Biden administration after Assad,

had left the country, responded by some strategic strikes on ISIS targets in Syria, presumably trying to prevent ISIS from having the opportunity to take over the government in the country. On the other hand, Donald Trump posted in all capital letters on social media that the United States should stay out of it and it's not our fight.

So there's sort of this divide on display here. I will say when it comes to Syria, I went looking for polling. I tried so hard. There's not a lot. And we love you for that, Mary. So I found a couple of polls sort of over the past 10 years or so asking Americans how they thought we should be involved in Syria.

And if you look back to 2014, 2013, even up to 2017, I found a couple of polls from YouGov asking the question,

do you think the United States has a responsibility to do something about the fighting in Syria between government forces and anti-government rebels? When that question was asked, people generally said no, no responsibility. The U.S. should stay out of it. They would agree with Trump. We should absolutely stay out of it. Interestingly, they changed the question wording a little bit later. In 2019, they asked a similar question, but

They said, do you think the United States has a responsibility to do something about the fighting in Syria involving ISIS? And when you ask the question that way,

people say yes, that the U.S. does have the responsibility, although not very strongly. There's a lot of people who don't really know. Thirty nine percent say the U.S. does have responsibility and 32 percent say the U.S. does not have responsibility. So the extent to which the U.S. might get involved in helping to rebuild a government in Syria and dealing with all those issues may depend on how events unfold on the ground and whether or not

We see a significant ISIS presence coming into power in the nation. Yeah. And I mean, I really just want to reiterate that Americans do not have strongly held beliefs on foreign policy and they tend to defer to elite cues on this in particular and also are because of that are very susceptible to changes in question wording and polls, like Mary said.

Yeah, Nathaniel, I know that Americans don't care about foreign policy with a couple caveats of, you know, lives and treasure. But seeing these headlines did really make me think back because I was actually living in Turkey when the Syrian civil war began and had plans to travel to Damascus that I ended up canceling. I also ended up in Cairo weeks after Mubarak fell and so was pretty caught up in the, I

events of the Arab Spring. And for me, actually, one of the most poignant moments was being in Tahrir Square and seeing all of the graffiti around the square that was like, I have pictures of this on my phone still that are like, I love Facebook, we love Facebook, just everywhere celebrating Facebook. And this idea at the time that these new social media companies heralded the dawn of a new democratic era in the

That seems like a time that is long gone. And also the prospects for new democracies in many of these Middle Eastern countries now also seem long gone, which is why when you read the news about Syria, you know, this morning, it's like Assad is gone. Great. And then

asterisk, asterisk, asterisk. Hey, we have no idea what's going to happen next. And it could be very bad because in places like Egypt, for example, the Facebook revolution did not herald the dawn of a new democracy. So 13 years later, I just reflect on maybe how much more cynical we are about the relationship between government and technology and the likes. But is there anything else, I guess, for you guys that the passage of 13 years signifies between the start of the civil war and the end of it?

I guess I would say that probably all of these things are measured on time scales that we aren't thinking about or even like kind of can't wrap our heads around.

I agree that certainly social media, the role of social media in politics, both international and domestic, has changed a lot in the last 13 years. And I think now you see, you know, especially in the Trump era, a lot of the problems that social media has kind of visited upon our politics. And I think a lot of the polarization that we've seen can be laid at social media's feet as well. But at the same time, I don't think that involves

invalidates some of those those moments of the Arab Spring. And again, I'm not a foreign policy expert, but I just I don't know if we are going to know what the overall trajectory and whether places in the Middle East and elsewhere are becoming more democratic or less democratic in the first half of the 21st century. I don't think that verdict will be rendered for four decades.

So we'll see. I do think generally as a student of history that these things are not linear. They're often two steps forward, one step back, or one step forward, two steps back. And we're just going to have to see where Syria and where all of this ends up on that ledger eventually. Wait, Nathaniel, you can't tell me where the arc of history goes from here? Sorry, Gavin. Why did you even come on this podcast?

No, but I think it's good to reflect on that. I just remember how solidified the narrative felt in the year 2011 about the direction of history and the direction of democratic development and the likes. And it's good to take a step back and recognize that

Oftentimes, things revert to the mean or a trend that feels like it's unstoppable suddenly ceases and then reverts. And to keep an open mind about the direction of history for better or for worse. And we're going to leave it there for today. So thank you, Mary and Nathaniel. Thanks, Galen. Thanks, Galen.

My name is Galen Druk. Our producers are Shane McKeon and Cameron Trotavian. You can get in touch by emailing us at podcasts at 538.com. You can also, of course, tweet us with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show, leave us a rating or review in the Apple podcast store or tell someone about us. Thanks for listening and we'll see you soon. Marketing is hard.

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