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cover of episode Are Democrats Really Going To Win In Ohio And Wisconsin?

Are Democrats Really Going To Win In Ohio And Wisconsin?

2022/8/15
logo of podcast FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics
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Galen Druke
N
Nate Silver
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Nate Silver和Galen Druke讨论了近期影响中期选举预测模型结果的新闻事件和民调数据。模型显示，民主党掌控参议院的概率已上升至60%。他们还探讨了对显示民主党在中西部地区表现良好的民调结果应持有的谨慎态度，因为这些民调在过去曾低估共和党的支持率。他们分析了堪萨斯州堕胎公投和明尼苏达州特别选举对民主党有利的因素，并讨论了通货膨胀率下降对选民情绪的影响。他们还探讨了模型中不同版本之间的差异，以及专家预测对模型的影响。最后，他们讨论了民调数据中可能存在的偏差，以及如何解读这些数据。 Nate Silver和Galen Druke深入分析了FiveThirtyEight模型的预测结果，特别是关于民主党在俄亥俄州和威斯康星州的选情。他们解释了模型中不同版本（轻量级、经典版和豪华版）之间的差异，并讨论了这些差异背后的原因，包括民调数据、基本面因素和专家预测。他们还探讨了模型中对选民构成变化（从登记选民到可能投票的选民）的调整，以及这种调整对预测结果的影响。此外，他们还分析了候选人素质对选举结果的影响，并讨论了俄亥俄州参议员竞选中的具体情况，包括民主党候选人Tim Ryan和共和党候选人J.D. Vance的竞选策略和公众形象。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the recent changes in the FiveThirtyEight forecast model, particularly the increased odds of Democrats retaining control of the Senate. They explore the factors contributing to this shift, including recent special elections and polling data.

Shownotes Transcript

In recent weeks, Democrats’ odds of keeping control of the Senate after the 2022 midterms have ticked up to sixty percent, according to our deluxe forecast model). In this installment of “Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the news events and polling that have contributed to that change. They also ask whether we should be skeptical of polls showing Democrats’ performing well in parts of the Midwest where polls have repeatedly underestimated Republicans.

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