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cover of episode Is The Eurovision Song Contest Rigged?

Is The Eurovision Song Contest Rigged?

2023/5/18
logo of podcast FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics

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Courtney Kennedy
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Galen Drew
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Gianluca Baio
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Gianluca Baio:通过构建贝叶斯模型分析欧洲歌唱大赛投票数据,研究是否存在系统性偏见。结果表明,虽然存在一些国家之间相互投票的轻微倾向,以及一些歌曲特征(如语言、演唱者性别)对投票结果有轻微影响,但这不足以解释比赛结果,也没有证据表明存在系统性地歧视任何国家。英国脱欧前,曾有观点认为英国在欧洲歌唱大赛中总是名落孙山,是欧洲国家歧视英国的表现,但该研究并未发现支持这一观点的证据。 此外,他还指出,媒体宣传、各国的积极参与以及一些非歌曲本身的因素(如举办地选择、纪念活动等)也可能影响投票结果。 Galen Drew:介绍了皮尤研究中心关于美国民调现状的调查结果,指出如今的民调行业与2000年相比发生了巨大变化,民调方法多样化,准确性也存在挑战。讨论了民调方法的准确性、成本以及公众对民调的信任度等问题。 Courtney Kennedy:详细阐述了当前美国民调行业面临的挑战,包括样本代表性不足、不同民调方法的准确性差异、以及如何有效地接触不同人群等。她指出,2020年大选后,民调机构对方法的调整比2016年更大,这反映了行业对提高准确性的重视。同时,她也指出了在不同民调方法中,在线调查是目前最流行的方法,但其准确性也存在问题,需要进行大量的加权处理。

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The podcast episode explores the long-standing accusations of bias in the Eurovision voting process, featuring an interview with statistics professor Gianluca Baio who created a model to detect potential biases.

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Since 1956, European countries have been gathering each year to compete in the Eurovision song contest -- a competition of largely pop and techno artists that can often feel like a parody of European tastes in music. There have long been accusations of bias in the voting process and last Saturday's competition -- which Sweden won -- was no exception. In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with statistics and health economics professor Gianluca Baio, who created a model) to determine whether there really are biases advantaging or disadvantaging certain nations.

Galen also speaks with Courtney Kennedy, vice president of methods and innovation at the Pew Research Center, who recently published a study) showing that the polling industry of today bears little semblance to the polling industry at the start of the century. The days of real human beings randomly dialing landline phones are gone, but what does that mean for the accuracy of public opinion research?

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