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cover of episode The Poll That Ended Dilbert

The Poll That Ended Dilbert

2023/3/6
logo of podcast FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics

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A
Amelia Thompson-DeBow
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Galen Druk
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Nate Silver
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Nathaniel Rakich
Topics
Galen Druk:Marianne Williamson 宣布参选,虽然胜算渺茫,但民调显示多数民主党人不希望拜登连任,这使得拜登可能面临来自合适挑战者的威胁。 Nate Silver:如果拜登真的脆弱,更'严肃'的挑战者将会出现,他们拥有更传统的资历或既定的选民基础。Williamson 并非这类候选人。 Amelia Thompson-DeBow:Williamson 在2020年以古怪形象闻名,但这次她试图以更严肃的形象示人,专注于经济民粹主义等议题。然而,如果没有真正的竞争,人们关注她的动力不足。 Nathaniel Rakich:Williamson 的竞选活动在华盛顿特区的联合车站举行,现场座无虚席,听众热情高涨,但人群构成多样,年龄偏年轻,女性多于男性,以白人为主,但也有一定程度的种族多样性。 Nate Silver:民调显示多数民主党人更希望其他人成为总统候选人,这反映了他们对拜登年龄和当选能力的担忧,而非对拜登本人的不满。 Amelia Thompson-DeBow:民主党人希望的是一个年轻的、与拜登在意识形态上相似且被认为更易当选的候选人。如果出现这样的候选人,拜登的处境可能会更加艰难。 Nathaniel Rakich:拜登的弱点在于他可能显得不够胜任,以及他可能无法获得足够左翼选民的支持。 Galen Druk:如果出现像Raphael Warnock这样更年轻、更易当选的候选人,拜登可能会面临真正的挑战,但这不太可能发生,因为党内纪律严明。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The podcast discusses whether Marianne Williamson, who has officially entered the 2024 Democratic primary, could pose a serious challenge to President Biden. Despite polls suggesting a majority of Democrats don't want Biden to run again, the panelists debate whether Williamson, or any other candidate, could effectively exploit Biden's perceived vulnerabilities.

Shownotes Transcript

Author Marianne Williamson officially entered the 2024 Democratic presidential primary on Saturday. It’s very unlikely that Williamson will be a serious challenger to President Biden, but with multiple polls suggesting that a majority of Democrats don’t want Biden to run for reelection, the crew asks if he might be vulnerable against the right challenger?

They also take a look at the results of recent elections in Chicago, Wisconsin and Virginia to see if they hold any lessons about the national political environment. And they ask whether the poll that Dilbert creator Scott Adams went on a racist rant over was actually a meaningful poll.

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