What We're Putting In Our 2024 Time Capsule
FiveThirtyEight Politics
Deep Dive
What is the likelihood of a government shutdown according to bettors on Polymarket?
As of December 19th, bettors on Polymarket estimated a 53% chance of a government shutdown by the end of the year, up from 13% on December 18th.
Why is Speaker Mike Johnson in a difficult position regarding the government shutdown?
Speaker Mike Johnson's position has been undermined by Elon Musk and Donald Trump, making it difficult for him to negotiate necessary tradeoffs with Democrats in control of the Senate and a Democratic president.
What historical significance does the 16-page indictment of Donald Trump hold?
The 16-page indictment in The People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump is historically notable as it marks the first time a former U.S. president has been indicted. Trump was convicted on all 34 felony counts in May 2024.
How did inflation impact grocery prices in 2024?
Grocery inflation in 2024 returned to pre-pandemic levels, averaging around 1% in recent months. However, during the worst inflationary spike in 2022, grocery inflation peaked at 13% and ended the year at 9%.
What was the significance of Joe Biden's June debate performance?
Joe Biden's catastrophic June debate performance was a pivotal moment in 2024, leading to his withdrawal from the presidential race. This marked the first time in over 50 years that an incumbent president withdrew from a reelection campaign.
How did the assassination attempt on Donald Trump impact the 2024 election?
The assassination attempt on Donald Trump, where a bullet nicked his ear during a Pennsylvania rally, was a significant moment in 2024. While its direct impact on the election is unclear, it highlighted the trend of political violence and was a close call with potentially catastrophic consequences.
What role did Kamala Harris play in the 2024 election after Biden's withdrawal?
Kamala Harris took over as the Democratic nominee after Biden's withdrawal, facing the shortest runway for any major party presidential candidate in history—107 days. Despite initial excitement and record fundraising, her campaign struggled to separate itself from Biden's unpopularity.
How did polling accuracy fare in the 2024 election?
Polling in 2024 was generally accurate, slightly underestimating Trump's support. However, a notable outlier was the Des Moines Register poll, which showed Kamala Harris leading in Iowa by 3 points, while Trump ultimately won the state by 13 points.
What was the significance of Trump's podcast appearances in the 2024 campaign?
Donald Trump heavily courted young men through podcast appearances on shows like the Joe Rogan Experience and Flagrant. This strategy contributed to a swing in support among young men, with Trump winning 53% of their vote in 2024, up from 45% in 2020.
What key issues influenced the 2024 election according to the time capsule?
Key issues in the 2024 election included inflation, immigration, and political violence. Immigration, in particular, became a top concern for voters, correlating with increased border crossings and contributing to a sense of malaise that hurt Biden and Democrats.
- Odds of government shutdown increase from 13% to 53% according to Polymarket.
- Democrats and Republicans had reached a deal, but it was undermined by Elon Musk and Donald Trump.
- Uncertainty about the consequences of a shutdown, including the possibility of Chuck Grassley becoming president.
Shownotes Transcript