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cover of episode What's So Special About 'Bidenomics'?

What's So Special About 'Bidenomics'?

2023/7/10
logo of podcast FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics

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G
Galen Druk
J
Jeanna Smialek
N
Neil Irwin
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Galen Druk:本期节目讨论了拜登总统的经济政策,即所谓的“拜登经济学”,以及美国民众对其的评价。尽管经济数据显示失业率低,通货膨胀率下降,但民调显示大多数美国人对经济现状感到悲观。节目探讨了这种矛盾的原因,以及“拜登经济学”的具体内容和影响。 Jeanna Smialek:美国民众对经济的评价存在偏差,强劲的就业市场和高通胀率对他们的影响不同。就业市场带来的积极感受是他们自己努力的结果,而通胀率的上升则被视为外部因素强加的。此外,目前的消费者信心调查在预测消费者行为方面效用不大,因为消费者信心低迷并没有导致消费支出大幅下降。 Neil Irwin:人们对经济的看法具有很强的政治色彩,共和党和民主党对经济的评价存在巨大差异。实际工资下降会影响人们对经济的感受,因为即使工资上涨,也可能赶不上物价上涨的速度。民调的目的在于预测未来的经济走势还是了解公众舆论?不同的目的决定了对民调结果的解读方式。单纯从数据来看,目前的经济环境并不像衰退,而是稳健的增长,通货膨胀略高。美联储的激进加息政策对经济产生了影响,但同时也避免了严重的失业危机。总统的政策决策会对经济产生影响,但并非所有经济结果都由总统决定。 Jeanna Smialek:"拜登经济学"中大规模公共投资是与以往政策的主要区别,而其他方面则相对渐进。对"暂时性通胀"的错误估计导致了对经济形势的误判。当前消费者行为显示出信心增强,例如住房市场复苏,休闲支出增加。全球范围内都在重新评估新自由主义模式,并转向更加注重经济韧性和本地化生产的模式。虽然新自由主义模式存在不足,但其产生的繁荣和财富也不容忽视。评估"拜登经济学"政策效果需要时间,因为其影响需要时间才能充分显现。低收入人群在当前经济中受益最多,而高收入人群则受到的冲击更大。低收入人群就业和工资增长与疫情后劳动力市场调整有关,部分原因是疫情期间大量工作岗位流失。当前经济形势与2010年代的经济形势形成对比,当前的增长更加均衡,地域分布更广。中西部城市经济的复苏既与政府政策有关,也与疫情期间远程办公的趋势有关。 Neil Irwin:"拜登经济学"中的大规模公共投资是与以往政策的不同之处,体现在《两党基础设施法案》、《通胀削减法案》和《芯片法案》中。"拜登经济学"中存在内在矛盾,例如在追求经济效率和创造优质就业岗位之间存在权衡。美联储的政策通过财富效应、信心和预期等渠道影响经济。公众情绪对政策制定者至关重要,因为即使经济数据向好,公众对高通胀的负面感受也需要重视。拜登政府对疫情后的经济复苏既有功劳也有责任。当前劳动力市场中,从事体力劳动的人群就业形势良好,而白领阶层则受到的冲击更大。

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President Biden is promoting his economic policies, branded as 'Bidenomics', contrasting them with 'Reaganomics'. Despite economic data showing strength, public opinion remains pessimistic.

Shownotes Transcript

Love it or hate it, this is President Biden’s economy and he’s taking credit for it. In recent weeks, Biden has been rolling out his economic pitch to Americans. It started with a high-profile speech in Chicago where he branded his policies as “Bidenomics” and positioned them in opposition to trickle-down “Reaganomics.” Since then, Biden and his campaign surrogates have fanned out across the country to make their pitch.

This is coming at a time when Americans are quite pessimistic about the economy. In recent polls, less than a third of Americans say the economy is good. But still, economic data paints a relatively strong picture. The unemployment rate -- according to data out last Friday -- stands at 3.6 percent. That’s close to a 50-year low. And inflation, although it remains somewhat high, has fallen to 4 percent from a high of 9 percent last summer.

In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with Jeanna Smialek, who covers the Federal Reserve and economy for the New York Times, and Neil Irwin, chief economic correspondent for Axios. They discuss how much of Biden’s approach to economic policy is actually new, what it looks like on the ground and why Americans are so pessimistic.

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